Page 1 of 10 1 2 3 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 200

Thread: DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,647
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

    Lots of updates from summer league. KL has slimmed down. RG has bulked up. Some tall white guys got engaged (here's lookin' at you, MVP). But maybe one of the most significant possible improvements this year won't be known for a while. A central tenet regarding the failure of the construction of this roster is that we have two expensive shooting guards who can't shoot. But what if DD does improve that 3 point shot this year? Everyone hoped he would develop a better jump shot after last off season and he did. A bit of a bump from 10-15 ft (37.9 to 39.1) and more of a jump from 16-23 ft (35 to 40%). If he showed a similar improvement in 3pt% (28.6) as he did in long 2's last year, he would be up to nearly 33%. That's not Novakian but it's the break even point. High hopes indeed but it's possible. If that's the case, would he be considered a legitimate starting 2 guard? Does it make his pairing with Gay that much easier? Does it make everyone else's inside game stronger? Because then you see a team forming.
    Lowry should be a legitimate starting PG. Rudy, though paid too much is a legitimate staring SF. JV should be the answer at the 5. The 4? well, if not legitimate, it's not far off. This might be a team worth keeping together. And that's what makes it interesting. Because, if there is no improvement in his 3pt%, then we do have a poorly constructed team. That may be one of the things that becomes clear in the first part of the season that helps Masai decide on whether to grow or blow. Simplistic maybe, but it makes sense.

    http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?...eMar%20DeRozan

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    MTL
    Posts
    1,540
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Agreed.

  3. #3
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    338
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    100% agreed. If DeMar was a threat from 3, the Raptors are a completely different team.

    There aren't many players who have managed to improve their range shooting dramatically this late in their careers, though. Jump shooting percentages have a lot of variance year-to-year, more than any other box score stat, but it's exceedingly rare for a guy to go from being as bad as DeMar has been to even decent. I hope he beats the odds (and it seems like he's got the work ethic to have a chance), but I expect him not to.

  4. #4
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Winnipeg
    Posts
    80
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    well said.

    cant be ray allen overnight. or over a year.

    but here's hoping that he's a legit threat from outside. throw in amir's new 18 footer, and the raps will kill it.

    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    100% agreed. If DeMar was a threat from 3, the Raptors are a completely different team.

    There aren't many players who have managed to improve their range shooting dramatically this late in their careers, though. Jump shooting percentages have a lot of variance year-to-year, more than any other box score stat, but it's exceedingly rare for a guy to go from being as bad as DeMar has been to even decent. I hope he beats the odds (and it seems like he's got the work ethic to have a chance), but I expect him not to.
    Protocall
    https://www.youtube.com/user/PTC204
    http://www.ptc204.com

    Uploaded a new track: Please like or comment on it if you dig it! Thanks
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAT4s_LO-rc

    The best day of 2013 was the day I found out Andrea Bargnani got traded.

  5. #5
    Raptors Republic All-Star WJF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Nova Scotia
    Posts
    1,541
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I think that he has push it to 30-31% for this season, and I would be fine with that. Not a huge threat, but something you need to respect enough to make a difference.

  6. #6
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    8,199
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote WJF wrote: View Post
    I think that he has push it to 30-31% for this season, and I would be fine with that. Not a huge threat, but something you need to respect enough to make a difference.
    That's like, virtually the same % he had last year. That's not going to cut it.

    I want to see DeMar shooting 33-35%. Anything less and he hasn't really made enough improvement. The only way I might accept something lower is if his shooting varies pretty strongly by area, but his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.

  7. #7
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    2,696
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    ...his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.
    And he takes far to few of them, going for the long two's from just outside the elbow instead. ***

  8. #8
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    MTL
    Posts
    1,540
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    That's like, virtually the same % he had last year. That's not going to cut it.

    I want to see DeMar shooting 33-35%. Anything less and he hasn't really made enough improvement. The only way I might accept something lower is if his shooting varies pretty strongly by area, but his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.
    I disagree. April Fools Gold boosted his % a little bit. Prior to the final 3 games he was not shooting it great. And even then, he never cracked 30%.

  9. #9
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,119
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    A central tenet regarding the failure of the construction of this roster is that we have two expensive shooting guards who can't shoot.

    Speaking for myself, its not just that he doesn't have a 3pt shot. Its the lack of overall game, lack of a 'special skill' or being a 'jack of all trades', that his greatest strength is the most inefficient shot in basketball. While him improving his 3pt shot would be great, he has, in my opinion, alot more to improve on than just that.

    But what if DD does improve that 3 point shot this year?
    I'm of the personal opinion that shooting is the single easiest skill to improve. If there is any area where a player can improve its their range. So should that improvement occur it won't exactly come as a shock. BUT, we also have to accept that some players never do. Demar has only shown the most marginal of improvements in that area (and if you look at the break down of his 3pt shooting, a huge chunk of his increase in % came during a 3 game stretch to end the season - 25% of all his made 3pters for the year came during the final 3 games of the season!)

    But more to the question. What if DD does improve? Great! But unless he improves to the point where he is known as a 3pt shooter (and not just an average 3pt shooter), he'll still need to add more to his game.

    hoped he would develop a better jump shot after last off season and he did
    Demar's mid range did improve from 35% to 40%, but that 40% is the same as his season before. And only 2% higher than his rookie season.

    From 10-15ft, while he improved again from 2011/12 to 12/13, he is still down significantly from 2010/11.

    I'm not sure thats accurately defined as a 'better jump shot'. Just better than the year prior.


    While Demar improving, anywhere, would be great. He's finished his 4th year in the league. He is better than he was as a rookie, but his game really hasn't changed significantly other than he's been given alot more shots. He's still lacking reliable range, still lacking ball handling, still lacking passing, still a weak rebounder, still a poor defender. His game is still based on athleticism, but he lacks lateral speed and agility. He is a large SG, but he shies away from contact to use that effectively.

    I know people are going to hate me for saying this, but the passion for Demar (by some - and not necessarily Jclaw, just in general) reminds me of the Bargnani experiment all over again. A hope that someone will become better than they are, but all the evidence showing there has been little improvement, and little reason to believe that any more improvement of significance will happen.

    While Demar may well prove me wrong, I'd rather Masai not take the risk and finds a way to effectively move him.

  10. #10
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    3
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Great post Craiger

    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Speaking for myself, its not just that he doesn't have a 3pt shot. Its the lack of overall game, lack of a 'special skill' or being a 'jack of all trades', that his greatest strength is the most inefficient shot in basketball. While him improving his 3pt shot would be great, he has, in my opinion, alot more to improve on than just that.
    Great post. Its all well and good to project improvement / hope for improvement - but, statistically speaking, there is a window of time where that is, in any reasonable way, relevant.

    I don't dispute DD's reported work ethic, but as @Craiger points out, he is who he is. And who he is - is someone who needs much more than just improvement on his 3point % to make a significant impact.

  11. #11
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Utrecht, The Netherlands (Yes, that's Europe!)
    Posts
    1,920
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I thought DeMar was a power guard now?

  12. #12
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    7,814
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    In the final 24 games of the season (Last 2 months) Demar shot 34% (11-32) from 3pt Range.
    I think its absolutely reasonable to think this is something he can accomplish on an 82 game span.
    In Masai we Trust.

  13. #13
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,119
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    In the final 24 games of the season (Last 2 months) Demar shot 34% (11-32) from 3pt Range.
    I think its absolutely reasonable to think this is something he can accomplish on an 82 game span.
    While I don't think him shooting 34% for a season is unreasonable, over that listed time - in 21 of those 24 games he shot 10% (2 for 20). In 19 of those 24 games he shot 0%.

  14. #14
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    338
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    While I don't think him shooting 34% for a season is unreasonable, over that listed time - in 21 of those 24 games he shot 10% (2 for 20). In 19 of those 24 games he shot 0%.
    That's a good point. And also, those three games were the last three of the season, against teams who were already lock into their playoff spots and not playing too hard. DeMar didn't have a 24-game pretty-good-shooting streak; he had (since January) a 48-game 19.6% shooting streak, and then a 3-game 75% shooting streak against disinterested competition. Which seems like it's more sustainable?

  15. #15
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    338
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    In the final 24 games of the season (Last 2 months) Demar shot 34% (11-32) from 3pt Range.
    I think its absolutely reasonable to think this is something he can accomplish on an 82 game span.
    Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

    To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.

  16. #16
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    19,680
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

    To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.
    Or you could remove the first 6 games of 2011-12 and the last 3 games of 2012-13 and take a 136 game sample where he shot 34/184 (20.7%).

    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...hlight=fallacy


    Fun with numbers!
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  17. #17
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    Posts
    7,814
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

    To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.
    Fair argument.
    All but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
    If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

    Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
    If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.
    Last edited by Joey; Fri Jul 12th, 2013 at 10:21 AM.
    In Masai we Trust.

  18. #18
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    MTL
    Posts
    1,540
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Shooting is practically the easiest of all basketball skills to learn. Anyone can learn at any point in their career, I just don't think Demar ever made it a goal of his to become very consistent from 3.

    Demar is the type of guy that has to rely on his work ethic to get better because he is not as naturally talented as some players. And each off season he has chosen one thing to improve on and he has succeeded each time.

  19. #19
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,335
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    Shooting is practically the easiest of all basketball skills to learn. Anyone can learn at any point in their career, I just don't think Demar ever made it a goal of his to become very consistent from 3.

    Demar is the type of guy that has to rely on his work ethic to get better because he is not as naturally talented as some players. And each off season he has chosen one thing to improve on and he has succeeded each time.
    By my count, this is at least the 2nd offseason (possibly 3rd) where DeRozan has publically stated that his offseason priority was improving his 3pt shot. As a 4-year veteran who has been a starter since day-1, played heavy minutes for the past 3 seasons and been the #1b scoring option for the past 2 seasons (#1 option whenever Bargnani was injured, prior to acquiring Gay), I seriously doubt we'll ever see DeRozan make any significant, sustainable improvements in any area of his game.

    The bigger problem for me, as some others have pointed out, is that even if he does improve his 3pt shot, he'll still have many weaknesses in his game. If you dig deeper into the basic stats (ie: 18.1 PPG, but needed 15.0 FGA per game - volume scorer) or delve into the world of advanced stats (many others have already done this in detail, in multiple threads), it becomes pretty apparent that DeRozan is an inefficient volume scorer with a preference for the worst shot in basketball (long 2pt jumper). Any eye-test shows that he's a terrible defender (usually tasked with guarding the weaker opposing wing), which is yet another glaring weakness in a league becoming wing/perimeter dominant.

    When you further factor in his $9.5M salary and the fact that Gay makes everything he brings to the table redundant, it's hard to obejectively find any benefit in DeRozan that isn't rooted in hope and faith - sounds a lot like what fans of Bargnani used to argue. DeRozan is a great guy, a great teammate, a hardworker, and he loves Toronto... unfortunately, his game is best suited to be a 6th man scorer making MLE money, rather than a franchise cornerstone making $9.5M.

  20. #20
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    338
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Fair argument.
    All the but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
    If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

    Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
    If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.
    I don't think there's any reason we should assume players improve as the season goes on. But in DeMar's case specifically, here's his 3pt% by month:

    Nov. 32.0%
    Dec. 29.4%
    Jan. 15.0%
    Feb. 25.0%
    Mar. 14.3%
    Apr. 50.0%

    There's clearly no upward trend indicating improvement as the season goes on; in fact, his worst month is the second-last.

    But I maintain that the choice of 24 games is extremely arbitrary; why 24 instead of 27 or 18? Why not look at post-all-star break numbers (29.7% in 29 games, incidentally)?

Page 1 of 10 1 2 3 ... LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •