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Thread: DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Fair enough. From my perspective, I think there's about a 5% chance he shots OVER 35.0% (Huge improvement) from three on the season, a 15% chance that he gets to 33.0-34.9% (significant improvement) and about a 25% he shots 30%-32.9% (modest improvement) for the whole season. So that leaves 55% chance he doesn't improve at all.

    I would LOVE to see him improve his 3pt shot. Especially from the corners.
    Come on man you're just pulling percentages out of your ass lol

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    I recall a post game interview from the end of the season where one of the reporters asked Demar if he's feeling comfortable with his 3point shot and he said "I get frustrated with myself because mentally I just don't shoot them" stating that's one thing he's got to get him mind around, stating it's just habit for him to try and get closer to the rim.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    Come on man you're just pulling percentages out of your ass lol
    Of course I am!
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    I recall a post game interview from the end of the season where one of the reporters asked Demar if he's feeling comfortable with his 3point shot and he said "I get frustrated with myself because mentally I just don't shoot them" stating that's one thing he's got to get him mind around, stating it's just habit for him to try and get closer to the rim.
    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    There was only one real quote you gave me, the rest was all RR people talking.
    Couldn't resist.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Sun Jul 14th, 2013 at 02:39 PM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    The interview I speak of is still on www.nba.com/raptors/. Just gotta go back a few pages in the videos section.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    http://www.nba.com/raptors/video/originals/index.html

    Page 6, Demar Derozan April 17.

    As you can see I'm not making this shit up lol

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    http://www.nba.com/raptors/video/originals/index.html

    Page 6, Demar Derozan April 17.

    As you can see I'm not making this shit up lol
    hahaha, I appreciate you digging it up.

    It seems like derozan views his problem with 3 point shooting as a mental thing, in the past he's attributed improvements (which turned out to be temporary) to being more comfortable, as opposed to changing mechanics. Not sure whether this means that he is more or less likely to figure it out.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Sun Jul 14th, 2013 at 03:57 PM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Fair enough. From my perspective, I think there's about a 5% chance he shots OVER 35.0% (Huge improvement) from three on the season, a 15% chance that he gets to 33.0-34.9% (significant improvement) and about a 25% he shots 30%-32.9% (modest improvement) for the whole season. So that leaves 55% chance he doesn't improve at all.

    I would LOVE to see him improve his 3pt shot. Especially from the corners.
    Stop saying crap like this it makes you look really stupid.

    Where in all hell did you get those percentages from?

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    110% of people can't do math

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    82% of statistics are made up on the spot to impress people on internet forums

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    4 out of 3 people have an invisible friend.

    okay I'm done now

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Stop saying crap like this it makes you look really stupid.

    Where in all hell did you get those percentages from?
    It's pretty simple, I make an educated guess, people do it all the time. The only difference is I attempt to quantify how strongly I think something is likely to happen. I don't just do it with basketball. For instance, my wife just made a wire transfer to me from Canada today. I'd say odds are 20% it's posted in my bank account here in Rwanda tomorrow. 30% it arrives on Wednesday, 40% chance it arrives Thursday, and a 10% chance it arrives Friday or later, what I'm I basis this on? Past experience with banks in Rwanda and wire transfers. If the transfer doesn't arrive until the end of the month, then obviously, I wasn't very good at making the prediction and there's obviously at least one major factor I wasn't taking into proper account.

    Any bet with odds is essentially the same process, Vegas doesn't KNOW the outcome of an event before it happens (in theory) they just try to factor into account as many things as possible and then set the odds on there EDUCATED GUESS. Obviously Vegas is REALLY good at this, to the point where it seems like they aren't guessing at all. But they are, and occasionally people are able to factor in other variables or come up with a better model, so that they make an educated guess that allows them to "beat vegas" (something I definitely can't do).


    Leaving vegas aside, anytime you make a bet with friends (or anyone for that matter) you are doing the exact same thing. The only difference is that a bet is usually has even odds, so the only evaluation you are doing is whether you think there's a 50% chance or higher of the outcome happening. However, if you change the odds at then it becomes the exact same thing.

    For instance If I wanted to give you 10,000 to 1 odds that the Miami WOULDN'T win the championship next year (which I am NOT doing) if you think that Miami has a better chance than 1 in 10,000 to win, they you probably take that bet. But what if the odds I offered were 1 in 10 or 1 in 2, or 1 in 1? You may no longer take the bet, or bet less money.

    I'm not saying that I'm right, or that my predictions on outcomes are any more valid than anyone else, I just ask my self HOW likely something is to happen, make my guess and see what happens.

    It's a pretty fun exercise. Why don't you try it? Answer the 2 follow questions.

    1) Is Demar likely to improve his three point shot this season as compared to last season?

    2) On a scale of 1 to 10, HOW LIKELY do you think it is that he'll improve his shot to the point where he shots over 32% from 3? 1 being just about impossible, and 10 being a certainty.

    I enjoy doing it because when I'm wrong (which I'll admit, happens A LOT) it makes me re-evaluate my thought process to try to account for why I was wrong, which usually leads me to an interesting finding, and I seem to get better at it over time.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    It's pretty simple, I make an educated guess, people do it all the time. The only difference is I attempt to quantify how strongly I think something is likely to happen. I don't just do it with basketball. For instance, my wife just made a wire transfer to me from Canada today. I'd say odds are 20% it's posted in my bank account here in Rwanda tomorrow. 30% it arrives on Wednesday, 40% chance it arrives Thursday, and a 10% chance it arrives Friday or later, what I'm I basis this on? Past experience with banks in Rwanda and wire transfers. If the transfer doesn't arrive until the end of the month, then obviously, I wasn't very good at making the prediction and there's obviously at least one major factor I wasn't taking into proper account.

    So what in all hell did you base those percentages that you gave DeRozan on lmao? And do you keep a chart of how long it normally takes for your wire transfer to come through that allows you to list those percentages

    Any bet with odds is essentially the same process, Vegas doesn't KNOW the outcome of an event before it happens (in theory) they just try to factor into account as many things as possible and then set the odds on there EDUCATED GUESS. Obviously Vegas is REALLY good at this, to the point where it seems like they aren't guessing at all. But they are, and occasionally people are able to factor in other variables or come up with a better model, so that they make an educated guess that allows them to "beat vegas" (something I definitely can't do).

    Vegas is not guessing and they aren't even trying to be right. They're trying to reduce their own risk. Oddsmakers care less about being right than they care about eliminating risk. Odds are designed to put even money on both sides of the bet. Parimutuel betting (like for horse racing) is by definition even odds, but spread betting needs to be balanced via the odds.


    Leaving vegas aside, anytime you make a bet with friends (or anyone for that matter) you are doing the exact same thing. The only difference is that a bet is usually has even odds, so the only evaluation you are doing is whether you think there's a 50% chance or higher of the outcome happening. However, if you change the odds at then it becomes the exact same thing.

    For instance If I wanted to give you 10,000 to 1 odds that the Miami WOULDN'T win the championship next year (which I am NOT doing) if you think that Miami has a better chance than 1 in 10,000 to win, they you probably take that bet. But what if the odds I offered were 1 in 10 or 1 in 2, or 1 in 1? You may no longer take the bet, or bet less money.

    Not sure how this is even relevant but ok.

    I'm not saying that I'm right, or that my predictions on outcomes are any more valid than anyone else, I just ask my self HOW likely something is to happen, make my guess and see what happens.

    It's a pretty fun exercise. Why don't you try it? Answer the 2 follow questions.

    1) Is Demar likely to improve his three point shot this season as compared to last season?

    2) On a scale of 1 to 10, HOW LIKELY do you think it is that he'll improve his shot to the point where he shots over 32% from 3? 1 being just about impossible, and 10 being a certainty.

    I enjoy doing it because when I'm wrong (which I'll admit, happens A LOT) it makes me re-evaluate my thought process to try to account for why I was wrong, which usually leads me to an interesting finding, and I seem to get better at it over time.

    It's nice that you come up with those numbers for yourself, but guess what they mean nothing and don't have any place in an intellectual sports discussion.
    Bold.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Nobody's talked about what DeMar biggest hinderance (IMO) is to shooting well from deep. That is, his busted shooting mechanics. It's hard to shoot well when you've spent your life using the Camby-style catapult launch.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    So what in all hell did you base those percentages that you gave DeRozan on lmao? And do you keep a chart of how long it normally takes for your wire transfer to come through that allows you to list those percentages
    I came up with those numbers by looking for former nba players. I tried looking for players who significantly improved their overall games and/or 3pt shooting after they had played 10,000 minutes in the nba. I will admit that I didn't go through the stats of EVER single player in the history of the nba, but I did look at a fair number. The only player I found that met the criteria as Chauncey Billups. Based on the fact that historically, there hasn't been very many players who have managed to significantly improve overall play (with an emphasis on 3 point shooting) I think that the odds of Demar being an Outlier in the regard to be small.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    It's nice that you come up with those numbers for yourself, but guess what they mean nothing and don't have any place in an intellectual sports discussion.
    Anyway, I don't really think that's much of a usual debate to be had here. Basically, I give a quantifiable number to my opinion, so that it is easy to understand how strongly I feel about a certain issue, or in this case how strongly I feel about the likely hood of a certain outcome being realistic. I completely disagree about the bold. I think that trying to but quantify opinions is WAY more useful in an intellectual discussion then writing vague statements like "demar is going to improve his 3 point shooting" I mean how can you even look back at the statement and evaluate whether it reflects what happened or not.

    But anyway, I don't think this debate is very productive for either of us so i'm happy to let it go. I'm probably not going to change my habit in this regard, so if you find it excessively annoying you can always hide my posts.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    I came up with those numbers by looking for former nba players. I tried looking for players who significantly improved their overall games and/or 3pt shooting after they had played 10,000 minutes in the nba. I will admit that I didn't go through the stats of EVER single player in the history of the nba, but I did look at a fair number. The only player I found that met the criteria as Chauncey Billups. Based on the fact that historically, there hasn't been very many players who have managed to significantly improve overall play (with an emphasis on 3 point shooting) I think that the odds of Demar being an Outlier in the regard to be small.



    Anyway, I don't really think that's much of a usual debate to be had here. Basically, I give a quantifiable number to my opinion, so that it is easy to understand how strongly I feel about a certain issue, or in this case how strongly I feel about the likely hood of a certain outcome being realistic. I completely disagree about the bold. I think that trying to but quantify opinions is WAY more useful in an intellectual discussion then writing vague statements like "demar is going to improve his 3 point shooting" I mean how can you even look back at the statement and evaluate whether it reflects what happened or not.

    But anyway, I don't think this debate is very productive for either of us so i'm happy to let it go. I'm probably not going to change my habit in this regard, so if you find it excessively annoying you can always hide my posts.
    I've found a couple but they really are few and far between.

    Gary Payton was one another poster mentioned - forget who.

    Kevin Johnson.

    Michael Jordan in year 6 and then not again until 10, 11, and 12.

    That is all I have.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Richard Hamilton could be used as a comparison. He hit .269 @ 24 years, .265 @ 25 years, and .305 @ 26 years before getting up to .458 @ 27 years.

    He did hit .364 and .381 in his first and third years (with a limited sample size), so the potential was always there.

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    Jordan, and Payton fit the bill, not so sure about Kevin Johnson. I definitely don't think Hamilton makes a good comparison as you point out he had two years 1 & 3 where he shot over .350 on threes. I would agree that limited sample size occurs in his rookie season by his year 3 numbers are 63 games 57 starts and 2203 total minutes, 35mpg. So he played 63 games where he logged over 35 minutes/game, and I think is a pretty big sample size.

    Derozan hasn't shot better than .283 in any of his 4 seasons.

    Here's hoping Demar is in the same category as Payton and Jordan...
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Jordan, and Payton fit the bill, not so sure about Kevin Johnson. I definitely don't think Hamilton makes a good comparison as you point out he had two years 1 & 3 where he shot over .350 on threes. I would agree that limited sample size occurs in his rookie season by his year 3 numbers are 63 games 57 starts and 2203 total minutes, 35mpg. So he played 63 games where he logged over 35 minutes/game, and I think is a pretty big sample size.

    Derozan hasn't shot better than .283 in any of his 4 seasons.

    Here's hoping Demar is in the same category as Payton and Jordan...
    KJ shot between 9% and 22% for the first 9 seasons of his career. In year 10 and 11 he shot 37% and 44%.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    KJ shot between 9% and 22% for the first 9 seasons of his career. In year 10 and 11 he shot 37% and 44%.
    Yeah I noticed that, but in the next year he was back to .154, with diminished minutes. He retired after that year (if you don't count his 6 game comeback in 2000).

    There are two reasons why i'm hesitant to compare his situation with Derozan's.

    1) His improvement was so close to the end of his career and that in his final year he shot sooo poorly, it leaves questions about what would have happened had he been able to play for few more seasons. Did his shot regress because of age/breakdown of his body, or was this production that he wouldn't have been able to sustain even if healthy/unencumbered by age. Obviously, that question cannot be answered.

    2) More importantly, it took him 4 more seasons after playing his 10,000 minutes to achieve his improvement. It wasn't until he played 19,000 minutes, that his % increased significantly. I don't think anyone here would argue that it is realistic to wait until Demar has logged 19,000 to prove whether he can hit the 3 ball consistently or not. Also, the last thing I want so to have this same argument for 5 more off seasons because "Kevin Johnson did it!"

    Certainly if you are just looking for guys who significantly improved their 3pt shooting after 10,000 minutes, it's definitely a case you could point to. Although, I wouldn't say it's a slam dunk do to it not being sustained (age factor?)

    As an aside, KJ goes back a little further than I do (I was like 7 when he retired). I would be interested to know how important 3 point shooting was in that era. Is it possible he always had the potential to be a good shooter but never worked on it as it wasn't deemed overly important? Was it a skill he focused on later in his career in an attempt to prolong it?

    If I remember correctly Dan Marjle was on that team as a 3pt specialist (or maybe he came just after?). I remember him hitting ridiculous shots on that NBC NBA saturday highlight show with Ahmad Rashard (and that blond lady with the short hair) they had for like 10 years. It was also how I got exposed to the NBA.

    Old(er)-timers i'd be interested in your opinions on this.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Tue Jul 16th, 2013 at 08:14 AM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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