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Thread: DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

  1. #101
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Yeah I noticed that, but in the next year he was back to .154, with diminished minutes. He retired after that year (if you don't count his 6 game comeback in 2000).

    There are two reasons why i'm hesitant to compare his situation with Derozan's.

    1) He's improvement was so close to the end of his career and that in his final year he shot sooo poorly, it leaves questions about what would have happened had he been able to play for few more seasons. Did his shot regress because of age/breakdown of his body, or was this production that he wouldn't have been able to sustain even if healthy/unencumbered by age. Obviously, that question cannot be answered.

    2) More importantly, it took him 4 more seasons after playing his 10,000 minutes to achieve his improvement. It wasn't until he played 19,000 minutes, that his % increased significantly. I don't think anyone here would argue that it is realistic to wait until Demar has logged 19,000 to prove whether he can hit the 3 ball consistently or not. Also, the last thing I want so to have this same argument for 5 more off seasons because "Kevin Johnson did it!"

    Certainly if you are just looking for guys who significantly improved their 3pt shooting after 10,000 minutes, it's definitely a case you could point to.

    As an aside, KJ goes back a little further than I do (I was like 7 when he retired). I be interested to know how important 3 point shooting was in that era. Is it possible he always had the potential to be a good shooter but never worked on it as it wasn't deemed overly important? Was it a skill he focused on later in his career in an attempt to prolong it?

    Old(er)-timers i'd be interested in your opinions on this.
    Three points were not nearly as part of the game when KJ played. I think it was Simmons who looked back to one of Spurs/Nets finals and looked at the 3pt attempts - big difference in game then vs. today. Even that was about 4 years before his retirement.

    As for KJ, I'm looking pretty superficially at the situation. Who drastically improved his shot after 10K NBA minutes. I was not too concerned with what happened after or whatever else. Even the Jordan example had him shoot 38% in 89-90 and then fall back to his low/sub 30 %'s before getting respectable again in 92-93 at 35%.

    Bottom line and what I think we are both saying: the odds of DD becoming a proficient 3pt shooter are slim to none and the chances he even becomes average are against his favour.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Tue Jul 16th, 2013 at 08:18 AM.
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  2. #102
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Interestingly enough, Billups, Payton, and KJ are ALL point guards. The only shooting guard we've been able to point to has been MJ...

    In any event, I've yet to seen anything that would say me from my current positions

    1) We can no longer talk about Demar's "potential" I think there's a chance that he shows some major improvement this season, but we he shows us is what he is.

    2) It is more likely that he WON'T show major improvement, than it is that he WILL show major improvement.

    3) I HOPE he will show major improvement.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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  4. #103
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Bottom line and what I think we are both saying: the odds of DD becoming a proficient 3pt shooter are slim to none and the chances he even becomes average are against his favour.
    I think we are, and have been, pretty well in agreement terms of what we expect to see from Derozan.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  5. #104
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Default Derozan is NOT overpaid???

    At this point, regular readers of this site will probably have a pretty fair picture of what I think of Derozan, and would probably, if forced, say that I'm more on the anti-derozan vs. pro-derozan side of the equation. Most people who are critical of demar, are critical of 3 things (3pt shooting, defense, CONTRACT).

    So as someone who is openly predicting that Demar won't improve significantly, and someone whose critical of his ability to defend, and his ability to shot the long bomb, I'm going to through a curve ball out there and say that I DON'T think Demar is overpaid. Instead I'm going to argue that Demar's contract is going to look downright GOOD for 2 of it's 4 years. For those of you who don't know, here's his salary.

    Last season (Final year of rookie deal)
    3,344,250

    Upcoming season (First year of extension)
    9,500,000

    2014-2015
    9,500,000

    2015-2016
    9,500,000

    2016-2017
    9,500,000

    IF you work off the assumption that the salary cap is going to increase every year, as opposed to decrease (which I do, and haven't seen any indication of it changing). Demar's salary as a percentage of overall salary cap/luxury tax is going to DIMINISH every year after this upcoming one. The more I look at it, the more I'm starting think of Derozan's contract as more of an ASSET than a LIABILITY. I don't think he's going to have to improve AT ALL for his contract to be good in the final two years of his contract.

    In this regard, I think he will get a version of the Amir Johnson treatment (although I will point out that there were poster here who felt like Amir's deal wasn't bad).

    So my opinion of Demar's contract has changed (and this isn't becuase of Tyreke's new deal). I now see it as a VALUE contract as opposed to a non-VALUE contract.

    This doesn't change my opinion that Demar can be traded. But I certainly don't see him as addition by subtraction.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  6. #105
    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    At this point, regular readers of this site will probably have a pretty fair picture of what I think of Derozan, and would probably, if forced, say that I'm more on the anti-derozan vs. pro-derozan side of the equation. Most people who are critical of demar, are critical of 3 things (3pt shooting, defense, CONTRACT).

    So as someone who is openly predicting that Demar won't improve significantly, and someone whose critical of his ability to defend, and his ability to shot the long bomb, I'm going to through a curve ball out there and say that I DON'T think Demar is overpaid. Instead I'm going to argue that Demar's contract is going to look downright GOOD for 2 of it's 4 years. For those of you who don't know, here's his salary.

    Last season (Final year of rookie deal)
    3,344,250

    Upcoming season (First year of extension)
    9,500,000

    2014-2015
    9,500,000

    2015-2016
    9,500,000

    2016-2017
    9,500,000

    IF you work off the assumption that the salary cap is going to increase every year, as opposed to decrease (which I do, and haven't seen any indication of it changing). Demar's salary as a percentage of overall salary cap/luxury tax is going to DIMINISH every year after this upcoming one. The more I look at it, the more I'm starting think of Derozan's contract as more of an ASSET than a LIABILITY. I don't think he's going to have to improve AT ALL for his contract to be good in the final two years of his contract.

    In this regard, I think he will get a version of the Amir Johnson treatment (although I will point out that there were poster here who felt like Amir's deal wasn't bad).

    So my opinion of Demar's contract has changed (and this isn't becuase of Tyreke's new deal). I now see it as a VALUE contract as opposed to a non-VALUE contract.

    This doesn't change my opinion that Demar can be traded. But I certainly don't see him as addition by subtraction.
    I've never though Derozan's contract was awful. At the end of the day he's a big shooting guard who can score and who can grab you 4 rebounds a game, which is pretty good. He is arguably a top 50 player in the league and makes 1.5 million less next season than the 50th ranked player (http://www.hoopsworld.com/nbas-top-5...t-paid-players).

    I don't know if he fits this team very well now since him a Gay do a lot of the same things, but I don't think his contract is bad and he probably wouldn't be hard to move if we wanted to.
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  7. #106
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    DeMar's handle is far more important than long range shooting. I'd rather seem him be a drive first, shoot second kind of player. I think he could thrive in that if he develops a strong mid-range game. He doesn't need the long ball. His bread and butter should be at the free throw line with all that athleticism.

    The handle is also important to creating for others and if he wants to be a premier NBA SG or if he wants to be anything more than niche role 6th man on a winning team, he needs that handle.

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  9. #107
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    I feel like he's got a lot to prove this year and he's going to explode on the court. Big numbers from him this year. Fingers crossed.


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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    I feel like he's got a lot to prove this year and he's going to explode on the court. Big numbers from him this year. Fingers crossed.

    People were posting videos of him in the Drew last year as well, saying the same thing. Don't get too excited over a couple dunks.
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  11. #109
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    And the year before that the buzz was about him playing with Kobe during the summer...

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    DeMar's handle is far more important than long range shooting. I'd rather seem him be a drive first, shoot second kind of player. I think he could thrive in that if he develops a strong mid-range game. He doesn't need the long ball. His bread and butter should be at the free throw line with all that athleticism.

    The handle is also important to creating for others and if he wants to be a premier NBA SG or if he wants to be anything more than niche role 6th man on a winning team, he needs that handle.
    This. I'd rather he not fall in love with the 3 if he acquires it (3-4 attempts per game, no more).

    If he can really improve his counter moves and breakdown ability he'll be an all-star, period. He already has a really high draw rate without much of a ball-handling arsenal. Incorporating that into his game (especially combined with an improved 3) would just be incredible.

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    Can't blame me for grasping @ straws with the lack of success we've had.... this is Toronto after all.

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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    Can't blame me for grasping @ straws with the lack of success we've had.... this is Toronto after all.
    Haha don't get me wrong, I'm all for optimism. There ain't enough of it on this forum. Just don't let your hopes go through the roof.
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    I just think he's going to be the threat that everyone thinks he should be this season. Naturally there will be other problems *ball handling, court vision* but if he is able to consistently shoot the 3 at about the 2-guard league average, he will essentially become the average 2-guard short of all-star status.

    IF then, when the organization chooses, at least MU can trade him for more value than for less.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Interestingly enough, Billups, Payton, and KJ are ALL point guards. The only shooting guard we've been able to point to has been MJ...

    In any event, I've yet to seen anything that would say me from my current positions

    1) We can no longer talk about Demar's "potential" I think there's a chance that he shows some major improvement this season, but we he shows us is what he is.

    2) It is more likely that he WON'T show major improvement, than it is that he WILL show major improvement.

    3) I HOPE he will show major improvement.
    Someone also brought up Rip Hamilton. (from 02' to 06' -> 27%, 27%, 30%, 46%)
    Ill bring up Dwayne Wade (from 04' to 09' -> 29%, 17%, 27%, 29%, 32%)
    Monta Ellis (from 06' to 11' -> 27%, 23%, 31%, 34%, 36%)
    Kirilenko (from '04 to '08 -> 30%, 30%, 21%, 38%)

    People improving their 3pt shot is not unheard of and most careers show huge swings in their percentages.
    To think Demar will stay static at 28% is being pessimistic not realistic
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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Someone also brought up Rip Hamilton. (from 02' to 06' -> 27%, 27%, 30%, 46%)
    Ill bring up Dwayne Wade (from 04' to 09' -> 29%, 17%, 27%, 29%, 32%)
    Monta Ellis (from 06' to 11' -> 27%, 23%, 31%, 34%, 36%)
    Kirilenko (from '04 to '08 -> 30%, 30%, 21%, 38%)

    People improving their 3pt shot is not unheard of and most careers show huge swings in their percentages.
    To think Demar will stay static at 28% is being pessimistic not realistic
    Sigh

    But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.

  18. #116
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Sigh

    But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.
    Except wade

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Sigh

    But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.
    I dont know that its relevant, Rip jumped from 27% - 46% (was never even close to 40% before hand)
    Wade, from 17%-32% and kept it near the 30% mark since
    Ellis 23%-36%
    Kirilenko 30%-38%

    Demar is at 28% right now, is it a huge stretch that he could hit 32% next year? No, I simply cant view it as a big stretch, most players experience fluctuations larger than 4% a year every year. Demar at 32% now has a 3pt shot that must be respected because it nets more than 1 ppp, and that will totally open his game up.
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Sigh

    But all hose players showed high percentage season earlier in career.
    All their "high percentage" years were on low volume.

    Rip: 28 makes (36%), 16 makes (38%)... that's an insignifcant sample size. I'd look at the years where he attempted 146 3s (27%) and 119 3s (27%) as more indicative of his ability to shoot the ball. Kind of like DeMar's 29% on 120 attempts this year.

    Monta: 28 Makes (34%), 8 makes (31%)... again not a significant sample size. He shot 143 his 2nd year and only made 27%. His first year to shoot a good percentage on high volume was coincidentally his FIFTH year (34% on 228 attempts) followed by 36% on 379 attempts. That is a DRASTIC improvement in 3pt shooting ability, especially considering he averaged 28% from 3 for his first 4 seasons. Let's take a closer look:

    Start of Career:

    First 4 Years of Monta Ellis: 87/303 = 28.7% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.3%)
    First six years of Rip Hamilton: 170/560 = 30.3% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.4%)
    First four years of DeMar DeRozan: 67/280 = 23.9% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 28.3%)

    All players relatively poor shooters early in their careers. If you don't factor in years 5 and 6 for Rip it's closer to 28%

    Later in Career

    Next 3 Years of Monta Ellis: 264/763 = 34.6%
    Next 4 Years of Rip Hamilton: 231/580 = 39.8%

    Both players actually INCREASED their 3PT shooting volume and percentage at the same time, Rip went from high 20s/low 30s to low-mid 40s at his best and that was in his 7th and 8th seasons. YES players can improve at shooting the three later in their careers. Let's not forget that Rip was 27 when he first became consistent from 3 (Ellis was 23 like DeRozan).

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  22. #119
    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Nice breakdown Xixak
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  23. #120
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    I know we're talking percentages, but when I'm thinking of 3pt threat, I'm thinking of shots near the end of the game, or tie breaking shots.

    Isn't that just as important as the statistic? Where and when those 3pt shots are made?

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