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Thread: DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

  1. #121
    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    I know we're talking percentages, but when I'm thinking of 3pt threat, I'm thinking of shots near the end of the game, or tie breaking shots.

    Isn't that just as important as the statistic? Where and when those 3pt shots are made?
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  2. #122
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    This thread is getting interesting. I'm leaning toward the pro derozan side, I don't see why his percentages shouldn't improve.
    "You never heard of DeMar just google him, the defense don't know what to do wit him"

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Someone also brought up Rip Hamilton. (from 02' to 06' -> 27%, 27%, 30%, 46%)
    By the time Rip logged as many minutes as Derozan these were his 3pt percentages: .364 .274 .381.269 .265

    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Ill bring up Dwayne Wade (from 04' to 09' -> 29%, 17%, 27%, 29%, 32%)
    Wade is actually a really good example, he shot consistently poorly, then shot consistently much better after 10,000 minutes played.

    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Monta Ellis (from 06' to 11' -> 27%, 23%, 31%, 34%, 36%)
    By the time Monta had logged as many minutes as Derozan his 3pt percentages were: .341 .273 .231 .301 .338

    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Kirilenko (from '04 to '08 -> 30%, 30%, 21%, 38%)
    By the time AK47 had logged as many minutes as Derozan his 3pt percentages were: .250 .325 .338 .299 .308

    For comparison, here are Demar's percentages: .250 .096 .261 .283

    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    People improving their 3pt shot is not unheard of and most careers show huge swings in their percentages. To think Demar will stay static at 28% is (being pessimistic) not realistic
    1st Bold: 100% agree, huge swings everywhere.

    2nd Bold: Yes Demar's numbers will swing, but to assume that they will swing up and stay up is just as unlikely. D-Wade was the only one who seemed to be able to do it. I think he's more likely to average under .300 than over at this point.



    EDIT: Xixak hadn't posted his post above when I started to post this.

    His break down is much more convincing.
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Tue Jul 16th, 2013 at 02:34 PM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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  5. #124
    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
    This thread is getting interesting. I'm leaning toward the pro derozan side, I don't see why his percentages shouldn't improve.
    probably because his numbers haven't really improved at all, and only his minutes have.

  6. #125
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Nice breakdown Xixak
    Yes props. I'm going to have to rethink my percentages!
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  7. #126
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    All their "high percentage" years were on low volume.

    Rip: 28 makes (36%), 16 makes (38%)... that's an insignifcant sample size. I'd look at the years where he attempted 146 3s (27%) and 119 3s (27%) as more indicative of his ability to shoot the ball. Kind of like DeMar's 29% on 120 attempts this year.

    Monta: 28 Makes (34%), 8 makes (31%)... again not a significant sample size. He shot 143 his 2nd year and only made 27%. His first year to shoot a good percentage on high volume was coincidentally his FIFTH year (34% on 228 attempts) followed by 36% on 379 attempts. That is a DRASTIC improvement in 3pt shooting ability, especially considering he averaged 28% from 3 for his first 4 seasons. Let's take a closer look:

    Start of Career:

    First 4 Years of Monta Ellis: 87/303 = 28.7% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.3%)
    First six years of Rip Hamilton: 170/560 = 30.3% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 27.4%)
    First four years of DeMar DeRozan: 67/280 = 23.9% (Peak year on 100+ attempts = 28.3%)

    All players relatively poor shooters early in their careers. If you don't factor in years 5 and 6 for Rip it's closer to 28%

    Later in Career

    Next 3 Years of Monta Ellis: 264/763 = 34.6%
    Next 4 Years of Rip Hamilton: 231/580 = 39.8%

    Both players actually INCREASED their 3PT shooting volume and percentage at the same time, Rip went from high 20s/low 30s to low-mid 40s at his best and that was in his 7th and 8th seasons. YES players can improve at shooting the three later in their careers. Let's not forget that Rip was 27 when he first became consistent from 3 (Ellis was 23 like DeRozan).
    And all DD's 4 seasons of shit shooting is on low volume. Wouldn't there be much more "hope" and "potential" for a guy to hit a higher percentage when he has hit a high percentage on low volume versus a low percentage on low volume?


    YES players can improve. RARELY do they after 9700NBA minutes.

    This is the same arguments that have been thrown around for 3 off seasons now.... and still nothing to show for it. I'm not getting in to this discussion yet again except to say:

    1) Go to youtube and look and clips of mechanics of said players.

    2) Go to this link and look at 3pt%. Now look at the bottom of the column. DD was working with much less than either of these guys to begin with. Sure Ellis shot worse than DD but by his 3rd year he was over 30%. DD is going in to his 5th year and still not there. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it I guess.
    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...esc&player_ids[]=318&player_ids[]=93&player_ids[]=79&sort=three_point_percentage&utf8=%E2%9C%93
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  8. #127
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    7 pages of this huh
    @jerboat

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    And all DD's 4 seasons of shit shooting is on low volume. Wouldn't there be much more "hope" and "potential" for a guy to hit a higher percentage when he has hit a high percentage on low volume versus a low percentage on low volume?


    YES players can improve. RARELY do they after 9700NBA minutes.

    This is the same arguments that have been thrown around for 3 off seasons now.... and still nothing to show for it. I'm not getting in to this discussion yet again except to say:

    1) Go to youtube and look and clips of mechanics of said players.

    2) Go to this link and look at 3pt%. Now look at the bottom of the column. DD was working with much less than either of these guys to begin with. Sure Ellis shot worse than DD but by his 3rd year he was over 30%. DD is going in to his 5th year and still not there. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it I guess.
    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...esc&player_ids[]=318&player_ids[]=93&player_ids[]=79&sort=three_point_percentage&utf8=%E2%9C%93
    I don't quite get this obsession with "# of minutes". If his minutes don't involve shooting 3s, as in that's not how he's being played, then the number of game minutes is not particularly relevant. Like any other skill, a young player needs to do it a lot under game conditions in order to develop. Averaging just over 1 shot per game, over 4 years, is not exactly 3P shot development time, however many minutes he has played doing other things.

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  11. #129
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    Demar got a lot of playing time last year... now that I'm thinking about it.... Demar's stats might drop this year if the bench playing improves.

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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    Demar got a lot of playing time last year... now that I'm thinking about it.... Demar's stats might drop this year if the bench playing improves.
    Depends which stats you're referring to. In an ideal world, DeMar is not required to average 20 a game. If his average drops to 14-16 ppg but his shooting percentages improve, then he'd be a much better fit for our starting lineup.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I don't quite get this obsession with "# of minutes". If his minutes don't involve shooting 3s, as in that's not how he's being played, then the number of game minutes is not particularly relevant. Like any other skill, a young player needs to do it a lot under game conditions in order to develop. Averaging just over 1 shot per game, over 4 years, is not exactly 3P shot development time, however many minutes he has played doing other things.
    If he had the skill, don't you think the coach would put him in the situation that helps the team? I can't believe anyone would think taking 21ft jumpers is more practical and beneficial than moving out 3 feet. Casey has always talked about wanting shooters. When Ross is on the floor they run the exact same plays except he is curling off the screen for 3 point shots (which on a sidenote is total crap as Ross has shown much more success as catch and shoot) so if DD could hit the 3 why wouldn't he be running plays like Ross? He is not being used in those situations because he does not have the skill.

    He has admitted for the last 3 summers he has to add the skill to his game. He shoots and shoots and shoots (three hundred makes a day is what he said two years ago) and yet still nothing to show outside 5-6 games in the last 2 years. It was this thread or another where quotes were provided of the last 3 years of basically the same thing.

    The last 2 years he has averaged 1.5 attempts per game.

    The number of minutes matter because the overwhelming majority of players with his experience in the league rarely get better. I'm not saying he won't it is just ridiculously unlikely. He is going to be 24 in a month. His mechanics are awful for a three point shot... great for a catapulter.

    I'm all for hope and potential but I cannot see how this situation warrants it when in the last 25 years (and a few thousand players) there are just a handful of players who have significantly improved their 3pt shooting with the amount of time and opportunity he has been given.

    As a shooting guard if he had the skill I don't think Triano and Casey would have ignored it this long when it is always a topic of conversation for him to improve.
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  15. #132
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    And all DD's 4 seasons of shit shooting is on low volume. Wouldn't there be much more "hope" and "potential" for a guy to hit a higher percentage when he has hit a high percentage on low volume versus a low percentage on low volume?

    Umm DeMar only shot 23 less than Monta in his first four years. This year was his first year really shooting a high volume of threes and he connected on just under 30%. Ellis and Rip were both shooting pretty low volume before, and as I showed they also shot low percentages. Yet they both upped their volume and percentages, Rip actually did this in his 7th season at the age of 27 lol. I don't see how it's unrealistic for DeMar to do it at 23. The three-point shot is the easiest thing for a player to add. This may not be the best example but look at Victor Oladipo's freshman and sophomore years shooting the 3 and compare that to his junior year.


    YES players can improve. RARELY do they after 9700NBA minutes.

    I just posted two examples of players doing that. Ellis improved after 10,140 minutes. Rip became a 40+% 3PT shooter after 14,430 minutes of shooting just over 30%. To say a player can't improve after a certain number of minutes is ludicrous and silly. LeBron just became a 40% 3PT shooter in his 10th season lol.

    This is the same arguments that have been thrown around for 3 off seasons now.... and still nothing to show for it. I'm not getting in to this discussion yet again except to say:

    Actually this discussion has never been had before with the evidence I just presented, considering DeMar had not played 4 seasons yet. This was also his best year shooting the 3 so far, with his highest # of attempts.

    1) Go to youtube and look and clips of mechanics of said players.

    2) Go to this link and look at 3pt%. Now look at the bottom of the column. DD was working with much less than either of these guys to begin with. Sure Ellis shot worse than DD but by his 3rd year he was over 30%. DD is going in to his 5th year and still not there. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it I guess.
    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co...esc&player_ids=318&player_ids[]=93&player_ids[]=79&sort=three_point_percentage&utf8=%E2%9C%93

    I hope you realize that the year you're talking about where Ellis shot 30% he only played 25 games and made 8 threes right? Please stop talking.
    Replies in bold.

    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I don't quite get this obsession with "# of minutes". If his minutes don't involve shooting 3s, as in that's not how he's being played, then the number of game minutes is not particularly relevant. Like any other skill, a young player needs to do it a lot under game conditions in order to develop. Averaging just over 1 shot per game, over 4 years, is not exactly 3P shot development time, however many minutes he has played doing other things.
    Exactly this, how the hell do the number of minutes a player has played affect their ability to improve shooting? Players don't improve their 3 ball during games lmao.

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    Raptors Republic Starter saints91's Avatar
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    Hey I have an idea... how about we wait 4 months and actually see if he is a better shooter. He's putting in the work, he has improved his mid range game and he's been doing well at getting to the line.

    DeRozan is good, but not great. He's a damn good third option. I'm optimistic he can improve, but he will never be in conversations as a great 3pt shooter. As long as he can do what he did last year, and swap out his long 2's for 3's I'm happy. He is a great guy, great team mate, a hard worker, and a talented player. There is no reason for him to turn into the whipping boy. I think we all know his contract is a bit steep, but in the past we have had to overpay to keep players. It's just the reality of the situation.

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  18. #134
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    Quote saints91 wrote: View Post
    Hey I have an idea... how about we wait 4 months and actually see if he is a better shooter. He's putting in the work, he has improved his mid range game and he's been doing well at getting to the line.

    DeRozan is good, but not great. He's a damn good third option. I'm optimistic he can improve, but he will never be in conversations as a great 3pt shooter. As long as he can do what he did last year, and swap out his long 2's for 3's I'm happy. He is a great guy, great team mate, a hard worker, and a talented player. There is no reason for him to turn into the whipping boy. I think we all know his contract is a bit steep, but in the past we have had to overpay to keep players. It's just the reality of the situation.
    Great post man.

    I don't even think his contract is steep tbh. Look at how much money comparable players like Tyreke and Monta Ellis got. Tyreke got what 11M a year? Ellis got 12M a year I believe. 9.5M for DeMar is probably less than he would've gotten on the open market, so it was actually pretty smart for us to extend him.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote saints91 wrote: View Post
    Hey I have an idea... how about we wait 4 months and actually see if he is a better shooter.
    But then what would we talk about!??!?!?!? Speculation is pretty much the only thing we've got going on.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I don't even think his contract is steep tbh... 9.5M for DeMar is probably less than he would've gotten on the open market, so it was actually pretty smart for us to extend him.
    Yes I think his contract isn't great this year. But will be okay next year and good - great in the final two years. So all in all decent.
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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Replies in bold.



    Exactly this, how the hell do the number of minutes a player has played affect their ability to improve shooting? Players don't improve their 3 ball during games lmao.
    Helpful suggestion: don't put your replies in with the quote of the post you are referencing. When someone else tries to reply to your thoughts, they don't come up in "reply with quote."

    I'm all for a difference of opinion but you have some inaccuracies in your post:

    DD took 1.5 3pt attempts this year AND last year. This was NOT the first year he took a 'high volume' of 3s.

    What you showed was somewhat accurate with Ellis but not accurate with Rip. Hamilton had a low volume/HIGH percentage early in his career. Hamilton shot 36% and 38% early in his career on low volume (1.1 and 0.7 attempts per game). He still showed an ability to hit the shot regardless of volume; DeRozan has come nowhere close to showing he can hit threes consistently regardless of volume.

    DD is going to be 24 in a month. Another step closer to shedding the 'potential' label.

    Oladipo has good mechanics. DeRozan does not. The NCAA three is 20'9" where as the NBA is 22" in corners and 23'9" at break - big difference. And you are right it is not the best example.

    Rip was a good 3 point shooter early in his career on low volume.

    You seem to be ignoring where I've already said DeRozan COULD improve dramatically however the PROBABILITIES are significantly stacked against him. The players you listed are the exception to the rule however Rip does not qualify and James has never shot lower than 29% from 3 in his career (rookie season).

    You are new here. Trust me the discussion has been had before and the evidence you have presented is incomplete at best, in my opinion.

    Your last bold is exactly the type of response that has significantly lowered the quality of discussion of late... "please stop talking" is for the playground.
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  21. #137
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    well said.

    cant be ray allen overnight. or over a year.

    but here's hoping that he's a legit threat from outside. throw in amir's new 18 footer, and the raps will kill it.

    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    100% agreed. If DeMar was a threat from 3, the Raptors are a completely different team.

    There aren't many players who have managed to improve their range shooting dramatically this late in their careers, though. Jump shooting percentages have a lot of variance year-to-year, more than any other box score stat, but it's exceedingly rare for a guy to go from being as bad as DeMar has been to even decent. I hope he beats the odds (and it seems like he's got the work ethic to have a chance), but I expect him not to.
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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    @Raptors: .@DeMar_DeRozan patiently waiting for #Raptors Summer League practice to wrap so he can get up some shots. #RTZ http://t.co/v2BQU3Yn0i


    Always working!

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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    @Raptors: .@DeMar_DeRozan patiently waiting for #Raptors Summer League practice to wrap so he can get up some shots. #RTZ http://t.co/v2BQU3Yn0i


    Always working!
    Nice to see. But the improvements that i want to see from DeMar is not his 3pt shooting. I mean, don't get me wrong it would be nice if he can be a 30-35% 3pt shooter next season. I'm not banking on it though.

    What i want to see from DeMar is i want to see him finish plays with authority. Enough of the soft ass plays, dunk the ball with authority, drive HARD to the basket, FINISH plays consistently.
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    demar will be playing in drew league. games arent broadcasted, not recorded like a dleague game would, but there are often videos that do show up on youtube. so might want to check that out. he will be playing with money gang


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