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DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)
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NoPropsneeded wrote: View PostI don't get this either. And its the same people everytime, with a shitty argument. Not all SG's are 3 pt gunners that shoot 40% on three's, most of the "elite sg" (which there aren't very much of in today's nba) shoot around the mid to low 30% for their career, and also most of them are crappy at slashing to the bucket. Look at guys like K mart and Joe Johnson, i'd hardly call those guys good slashers. Most SG's that are considered "elite" are all shooters, and because of that everyone thinks you have to be able to shoot 3's to be elite which is not true at all. Sure DeMar isn't elite at what he does,yet, but his game is very rare and you don't see it much in the NBA. How many 2-guards in the league right now can do what DeMar does? besides D Wade
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jimmie wrote: View PostReading comprehension is HARD, I know, and presenting ideas to support your opinion that aren't straight out your ass is also hard (Demar's game is "very rare and you don't see it much in the NBA"? most elite SGs can't slash and can only shoot 3s?).
People (at least me) aren't suggesting shifting DD out for a 3-pt gunner. They're saying that, to be an elite, valuable starting SG in this league, you NEED to be AT LEAST RELIABLE from that range. Yes, he has a skillset that includes things other than 3-point shooting. That's nice. But to be elite, to be a starting SG on a deep-playoff team, you need more than just athleticism and a strong work ethic.
It's not even about Demar, per se. It's about what the Raptors need out of their starting SG. And they need efficient, reliable 3-pt shooting at that spot, since that, along with SF, as that's who will be taking the majority of those shots. It's a simple equation: we need this skill, we don't have anyone who has it, so either someone here has to develop it or we have to find someone somewhere else that does and bring them in.
Maybe DD will develop the skill, maybe he won't. But to pretend it's not an issue that he can't shoot the 3 from the SG spot is some silly sh*t.
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magoon wrote: View PostAs an aside: the DD/Rudy problem (and one of the biggest offensive issues for the team) is that they duplicate each other's skillsets. DeMar is a good slasher and a mediocre shooter; so is Rudy. There's no reason, offensively speaking, that your SF has to be the slasher and your SG has to be the shooter. If we had another SF other than Rudy who was a good three-and-D player - or if we simply moved DeMar to SF and found a three-and-D SG (Gary Neal, for example), the issues with DeMar's game would be greatly lessened.
It's pretty obvious that both of them can't be here long-term. It's simply down to choosing your poison: a SF who's probably at his ceiling and earns max money (a ceiling that doesn't justify the $$$) for the next 2 years, or a young SG with holes in his game who earns $10M for the next 4. You're deciding to pay $10M for upside vs. $17M for a finished product. Give the state of this team, I'd prefer to go with the smaller contract/bigger upside and move him later if the upside doesn't show itself.Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
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jimmie wrote: View PostYeah, that would be my preferred course of action, as well. Despite folks thinking it's hating on Demar to talk about the fact that he needs to improve his shooting, I would actually prefer to keep him and get rid of Gay. Demar can play the 3 more easily than the 2 right now, with his (current) skillset, he costs little more than half what Gay does, and he's younger.
It's pretty obvious that both of them can't be here long-term. It's simply down to choosing your poison: a SF who's probably at his ceiling and earns max money (a ceiling that doesn't justify the $$$) for the next 2 years, or a young SG with holes in his game who earns $10M for the next 4. You're deciding to pay $10M for upside vs. $17M for a finished product. Give the state of this team, I'd prefer to go with the smaller contract/bigger upside and move him later if the upside doesn't show itself.
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Mediumcore wrote: View PostI'd rather keep the guy who is the better talent with the bigger contract. It's easier to clear cap space than it is to find talent imo.
NoPropsneeded wrote: View PostI said most SG's these days are shooters. Never said they are all great shootersLast edited by TRX; Sat Jul 20, 2013, 10:59 AM.
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TRX wrote: View PostTell that to OKC. Correction: it's easier to clear cap space than it is to find talent... if you consistently hand out bad contracts and/or don't have a contender. It's hard to compete now when bad contracts hurt so much more than in the past.
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Mediumcore wrote: View PostI'd rather keep the guy who is the better talent with the bigger contract. It's easier to clear cap space than it is to find talent imo.
Rudy last year: 41.6 FG%, 32.3 3P%, 81.4 FT%, 6.2 rebounds per 36, 2.7 assists per 36, 1.5 steals per 36, 18.4 points per 36, 15.6 PER
DeMar last year: 45.5 FG%, 28.3 3P%, 83.1 FT%, 3.8 rebounds per 36, 2.4 assists per 36, 0.9 steals per 36, 17.7 points per 36, 14.4 PER
Rudy is a better rebounder (but he grabs 10% of all team rebounds versus DeMar's 6.5%) and a slightly better three-point shooter, but other than that, they're basically the same player. If you go back and look at Rudy's fourth season versus DeMar's fourth season for a better developmental comparison, it's even closer - the only difference is Rudy being a slightly better three-point shooter.
Is that worth an extra ten million dollars a year, plus DeMar being guaranteed to us for another four years while Rudy can walk in two, plus the fact that DeMar is that rarest of animals: a player who very clearly wants to play for Toronto? I would argue that it is not.Last edited by magoon; Sat Jul 20, 2013, 11:12 AM.
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magoon wrote: View PostBut then we have to seriously ask which of the two is the most cost-effective talent.
Rudy last year: 41.6 FG%, 32.3 3P%, 81.4 FT%, 6.2 rebounds per 36, 2.7 assists per 36, 1.5 steals per 36, 18.4 points per 36, 15.6 PER
DeMar last year: 45.5 FG%, 28.3 3P%, 83.1 FT%, 3.8 rebounds per 36, 2.4 assists per 36, 0.9 steals per 36, 17.7 points per 36, 14.4 PER
Rudy is a better rebounder (but he grabs 10% of all team rebounds versus DeMar's 6.5%) and a slightly better three-point shooter, but other than that, they're basically the same player. If you go back and look at Rudy's fourth season versus DeMar's fourth season for a better developmental comparison, it's even closer - the only difference is Rudy being a slightly better three-point shooter.
Is that worth an extra ten million dollars a year, plus DeMar being guaranteed to us for another four years while Rudy can walk in two, plus the fact that DeMar is that rarest of animals: a player who very clearly wants to play for Toronto? I would argue that it is not.
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I don't know if it's always been there, and I just missed it, but it looks like basketball-reference.com now does projections for the upcoming season!!! Not sure how reliable their methodology is, so I don't take their projection as more valid than any else's here. But just in case you were interested here are their projected stats for Derozan next year.
Per 36 Minutes Shooting
Season Age Lg FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% WS/48
2013-14 24 NBA 6.6 14.6 0.4 1.4 4.3 5.2 0.7 3.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 1.8 2.3 17.8 .450 .281 .828 .067
They project he will take 1.4 3PA and make .4 of them, so his 3pt % is projected to be .286.
If you want to compare his projected stats with his last year stats click the link
Even if it's not accurate, I'm still super psyched about this feature!!! I'm going to start a new thread about it now!!!"They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014
"I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015
"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
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wmagoon wrote: View PostAs an aside: the DD/Rudy problem (and one of the biggest offensive issues for the team) is that they duplicate each other's skillsets. DeMar is a good slasher and a mediocre shooter; so is Rudy. There's no reason, offensively speaking, that your SF has to be the slasher and your SG has to be the shooter. If we had another SF other than Rudy who was a good three-and-D player - or if we simply moved DeMar to SF and found a three-and-D SG (Gary Neal, for example), the issues with DeMar's game would be greatly lessened.You come at the King, you best not miss.
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Mediumcore wrote: View PostLet me rephrase that to "it's easier to clear cap space than it is to GET talent". I can't say how incredibly impressed I am with what Houston has done in putting Harden and Dwight together. Lakers were able to attract talent because of Kobe and their storied franchise, Miami had Wade and its south beach, but Houston had nothing other than a genius of a GM. Barring injury they should have a team that will compete for a championship for years to come. On top of that they won't have any problems attracting free agents to play with those two.
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I don't think that Demar is likely to make big improvements which I posted in previous pages; I do think his contract is okay and will provide more value year over year.
Another point I want to throw out there to support my argument that he provides good value.
HTML Code:He's never been injured *knocks on wood* Season Age G GS MP 2009-10 20 77 65 1664 2010-11 21 82 82 2851 2011-12 22 63 63 2206 2012-13 23 82 82 3013 Career 304 292 9734
If you factor in the lost production of injuries, it makes demar more valuable, IMO, or at least SHOULD make him more valuable.
Anyway more food for thought."They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014
"I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015
"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
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