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DeMar's 3 pt shot (and what it means for the Raptors)

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  • #16
    tkfu wrote: View Post
    Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

    To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.
    Or you could remove the first 6 games of 2011-12 and the last 3 games of 2012-13 and take a 136 game sample where he shot 34/184 (20.7%).

    http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...hlight=fallacy


    Fun with numbers!

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    • #17
      tkfu wrote: View Post
      Yeah, but variance. A 32 shot sample size is nothing: if he had missed one more shot, he'd be at 31% (BOOOO!), and if he'd hit one more he'd be at 38%(YAAAAY!).

      To pick another fairly arbitrary sample, for the months of January, February, and March (a 42 game stretch, more than half the season), DeMar shot 18% (9-50). I think it's absolutely reasonable to think that's something he could keep up for an 82 game span, too.
      Fair argument.
      All but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
      If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

      Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
      If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.
      Last edited by Joey; Fri Jul 12, 2013, 10:21 AM.

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      • #18
        white men can't jump wrote: View Post
        That's like, virtually the same % he had last year. That's not going to cut it.

        I want to see DeMar shooting 33-35%. Anything less and he hasn't really made enough improvement. The only way I might accept something lower is if his shooting varies pretty strongly by area, but his corner 3s are very good, like 40%.
        I disagree. April Fools Gold boosted his % a little bit. Prior to the final 3 games he was not shooting it great. And even then, he never cracked 30%.
        You come at the King, you best not miss.

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        • #19
          Shooting is practically the easiest of all basketball skills to learn. Anyone can learn at any point in their career, I just don't think Demar ever made it a goal of his to become very consistent from 3.

          Demar is the type of guy that has to rely on his work ethic to get better because he is not as naturally talented as some players. And each off season he has chosen one thing to improve on and he has succeeded each time.
          You come at the King, you best not miss.

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          • #20
            joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
            Fair argument.
            All the but the part of "arbitrary sample". Its not at all arbitrary. Its the 24 most recent games.
            If we are to assume that players improve as the season goes on, then I'd say its fairly relevant to looking at what his numbers could potentaily be next season.

            Doesn't matter if he has a few great shooting games interspersed amongst shitty games.
            If at the end of the season, his percentage is what it is, then it doesn't matter where or when those shots came from.
            I don't think there's any reason we should assume players improve as the season goes on. But in DeMar's case specifically, here's his 3pt% by month:

            Nov. 32.0%
            Dec. 29.4%
            Jan. 15.0%
            Feb. 25.0%
            Mar. 14.3%
            Apr. 50.0%

            There's clearly no upward trend indicating improvement as the season goes on; in fact, his worst month is the second-last.

            But I maintain that the choice of 24 games is extremely arbitrary; why 24 instead of 27 or 18? Why not look at post-all-star break numbers (29.7% in 29 games, incidentally)?

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            • #21
              Jclaw wrote: View Post
              Lots of updates from summer league. KL has slimmed down. RG has bulked up. Some tall white guys got engaged (here's lookin' at you, MVP). But maybe one of the most significant possible improvements this year won't be known for a while. A central tenet regarding the failure of the construction of this roster is that we have two expensive shooting guards who can't shoot. But what if DD does improve that 3 point shot this year? Everyone hoped he would develop a better jump shot after last off season and he did. A bit of a bump from 10-15 ft (37.9 to 39.1) and more of a jump from 16-23 ft (35 to 40%). If he showed a similar improvement in 3pt% (28.6) as he did in long 2's last year, he would be up to nearly 33%. That's not Novakian but it's the break even point. High hopes indeed but it's possible. If that's the case, would he be considered a legitimate starting 2 guard? Does it make his pairing with Gay that much easier? Does it make everyone else's inside game stronger? Because then you see a team forming.
              Lowry should be a legitimate starting PG. Rudy, though paid too much is a legitimate staring SF. JV should be the answer at the 5. The 4? well, if not legitimate, it's not far off. This might be a team worth keeping together. And that's what makes it interesting. Because, if there is no improvement in his 3pt%, then we do have a poorly constructed team. That may be one of the things that becomes clear in the first part of the season that helps Masai decide on whether to grow or blow. Simplistic maybe, but it makes sense.

              http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?...eMar%20DeRozan
              I think we'd be better off trying Ross at the two beside Gay and move Derozan for picks and cap space. I think Ross is already a better 3 point shooter and is probably going to be better defensively in the long run because he's faster.

              Don't get me wrong, I like DD and I'm a fan of his game. I think he has the potential to be a good player on a number of teams, especially one that has a 3 who is more of a thre point shooter, but expecting him to suddenly become the two we need is a little far fetched. It's not just his three point shot that needs to get better it's his passing, his off ball movement, and most importantly, his defense. His biggest value right now is that he is a guy who can kill it in the midrange and in the post and give you 20 points a night...which is exatly what Gay does. If Gay is the number one option, why do we want a guy beside him that wants to play in the same areas? It will just lead to bad spacing and close the floor up.
              "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

              -Churchill

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              • #22
                Mr.Z wrote: View Post
                Shooting is practically the easiest of all basketball skills to learn. Anyone can learn at any point in their career, I just don't think Demar ever made it a goal of his to become very consistent from 3.

                Demar is the type of guy that has to rely on his work ethic to get better because he is not as naturally talented as some players. And each off season he has chosen one thing to improve on and he has succeeded each time.
                By my count, this is at least the 2nd offseason (possibly 3rd) where DeRozan has publically stated that his offseason priority was improving his 3pt shot. As a 4-year veteran who has been a starter since day-1, played heavy minutes for the past 3 seasons and been the #1b scoring option for the past 2 seasons (#1 option whenever Bargnani was injured, prior to acquiring Gay), I seriously doubt we'll ever see DeRozan make any significant, sustainable improvements in any area of his game.

                The bigger problem for me, as some others have pointed out, is that even if he does improve his 3pt shot, he'll still have many weaknesses in his game. If you dig deeper into the basic stats (ie: 18.1 PPG, but needed 15.0 FGA per game - volume scorer) or delve into the world of advanced stats (many others have already done this in detail, in multiple threads), it becomes pretty apparent that DeRozan is an inefficient volume scorer with a preference for the worst shot in basketball (long 2pt jumper). Any eye-test shows that he's a terrible defender (usually tasked with guarding the weaker opposing wing), which is yet another glaring weakness in a league becoming wing/perimeter dominant.

                When you further factor in his $9.5M salary and the fact that Gay makes everything he brings to the table redundant, it's hard to obejectively find any benefit in DeRozan that isn't rooted in hope and faith - sounds a lot like what fans of Bargnani used to argue. DeRozan is a great guy, a great teammate, a hardworker, and he loves Toronto... unfortunately, his game is best suited to be a 6th man scorer making MLE money, rather than a franchise cornerstone making $9.5M.

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                • #23
                  Demar's biggest flaws (as I see it) is not his 3p% but his inability to make unassisted shots and poor D.

                  T.Ross doesn't fit the bill on both accounts.

                  next.

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                  • #24
                    demar is a power two guard who gets to line at at top 10 nba pace. He's got better at passing and reading the defense and has slowly gotten better each of his first 4 years. He's still 23 years old, which would make him a second year player if he stayed in school. You guys are very closed minded on this board to think that he's peaked. There's lots of players who improved there three point shooting from 23 years old-25 years old. This will not define him as a player. I really like DD post game and rather have him post up, penetrate or shoot open mid range shots (as he has a real nice touch from mid range as long as he doesn't consistently settle for this shot). I've watched a guy named wade for many years dominate without a 3 point shot so if DD improves that shot great but it won't define him as a player. He's a power two who can dunk on people, post up and has started to get a better feel for the game. Just look at his steady improvement in assists each year.
                    Basketball is about playing the game the right way. Teams turn down good shots for great shots and play good team basketball. On defense your aware of your strengths and weakness of the opposition (even your own teammates), anticipate the next play and play aggressive (rotations). This has nothing to do with demars 3 point shot and if he becomes a 35% 3 point shooter it will just be gravy too his french fries.


                    09-'10 TOR 77 65 21.6 3.3-6.6 .498 0.1-0.2 .250 1.9-2.5 .763 0.9 2.0 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.6 2.3 0.8 8.6
                    '10-'11 TOR 82 82 34.8 6.6-14.1 .467 0.1-0.6 .096 4.0-4.9 .813 0.9 2.9 3.8 1.8 0.4 1.0 2.6 1.8 17.2
                    '11-'12 TOR 63 63 35.0 6.0-14.3 .422 0.4-1.5 .261 4.3-5.3 .810 0.6 2.7 3.3 2.0 0.3 0.8 2.6 2.0 16.7
                    '12-'13 TOR 82 82 36.7 6.7-15.0 .445 0.4-1.5 .283 4.3-5.2 .831 0.6 3.3 3.9 2.5 0.3 0.9 2.1 1.8 18.1

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                    • #25
                      I think the people who say DeMar can't become a good three point shooter should look at Rip Hamilton

                      - If you discount 01-02 where he shot just 42 threes (tiny sample), here's how he shot the three ball his first few years:

                      28-77 (36%, relatively small sample)
                      40-146 (27%)
                      32-119 (27%)
                      18-68 (27%)
                      36-118 (31%)

                      Mediocre 3PT shooting numbers. And just like DeMar, Rip was an 18ppg 4rpg 3apg type of player during this period (Rip scored slightly more because he took more shots), operating primarily from mid-range while also getting about 5 or 6 attempts from the FT Line).

                      Rip was able to have the following solid and/or STELLAR 3PT shooting seasons later in his career (and he was 21 when he entered the league not 19 like DeMar).

                      05-06: 55-120 (46%)
                      06-07: 44-129 (34%)
                      07-08: 67-141 (44%)
                      08-09: 70-190 (37%)
                      10-11: 55-144 (38%)

                      His improved shooting allowed him to be a 20-4-4 type player and an all-star. There's no reason why DeMar can't get to this level, their playing styles in their first 4 years are eerily similar. Both excelled from mid-range and were adept at getting to the line and converting at a high rate (80%+ for both). I think DD actually has a higher ceiling because of his athleticism (which Rip really could not compare to) and size (he outweighs Rip by over 20lbs). Rip rarely operated out of the post and that's something DD has already started to add to his game.

                      There's nothing stopping DeMar from becoming a 20+ppg 5rpg 4-5apg type of player who shoots 45-35-85 percentage wise. It's a matter of slowly adding pieces to his game. That would be an absolute bargain for 9M a year, especially on a guy who has missed just 8 games in his 4-year career.
                      Last edited by Xixak; Fri Jul 12, 2013, 12:59 PM.

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                      • #26
                        The same arguments from the same people OVER and OVER..... I'm obviously more optimistic about DD's ability to improve than others. I think if he can improve to 32-35% 3 pt shooter this coming season, he will be VERY valuable to us.

                        I have no doubt that it IS possible for him to improve his 3 pt shooting and defence and i think for those that continue to believe the opposite...... wait and see.

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                        • #27
                          Xixak good analyisis: Current production is 18 points 4 rebounds and 2.5 assists.

                          Potential 20-5-4- pretty good player. Compare the peoples salaries who have this type of production. To me its about playing smart, effecient and tough basketball. Thats what will make the raps a winner. Not his 3 point shooting.

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                          • #28
                            Frankthetank wrote: View Post
                            Xixak good analyisis: Current production is 18 points 4 rebounds and 2.5 assists.

                            Potential 20-5-4- pretty good player. Compare the peoples salaries who have this type of production. To me its about playing smart, effecient and tough basketball. Thats what will make the raps a winner. Not his 3 point shooting.
                            There's very few shooting guards currently that put up those numbers:

                            Kobe Bryant - 30.45M (27-6-6)
                            James Harden - 13.7M (26-6-5)
                            Dwyane Wade - 18.5M (21-5-5)

                            DeMar would be an absolute steal for 9M if he can JUST make that improvement to his 3PT shot. Becoming a good defender would just make it even sweeter.

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                            • #29
                              Frankthetank wrote: View Post
                              demar is a power two guard who gets to line at at top 10 nba pace. He's got better at passing and reading the defense and has slowly gotten better each of his first 4 years. He's still 23 years old, which would make him a second year player if he stayed in school. You guys are very closed minded on this board to think that he's peaked. There's lots of players who improved there three point shooting from 23 years old-25 years old. This will not define him as a player. I really like DD post game and rather have him post up, penetrate or shoot open mid range shots (as he has a real nice touch from mid range as long as he doesn't consistently settle for this shot). I've watched a guy named wade for many years dominate without a 3 point shot so if DD improves that shot great but it won't define him as a player. He's a power two who can dunk on people, post up and has started to get a better feel for the game. Just look at his steady improvement in assists each year.
                              The reason why DeMar's 3 pt shot is such a big deal is because DeMar is a 2 guard that doesn't bring anything else to the table besides his scoring. He can't pass, rebound, or play defense. The reason why Dwayne Wade is not defined by his 3 pt shot is because he can do all the things that DeMar can't do. Maybe its me but I feel like he's been saying the same thing for the past couple of off-seasons about needing to work on his 3 pt shot as well as his ball handling and the same thing has happened when the new season starts, little to no improvement on any of those areas. Maybe DeMar should stop talking about what he is going to work on and just do it, because so far he seems to be all talk.

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                              • #30
                                Great post Craiger

                                Craiger wrote: View Post
                                Speaking for myself, its not just that he doesn't have a 3pt shot. Its the lack of overall game, lack of a 'special skill' or being a 'jack of all trades', that his greatest strength is the most inefficient shot in basketball. While him improving his 3pt shot would be great, he has, in my opinion, alot more to improve on than just that.
                                Great post. Its all well and good to project improvement / hope for improvement - but, statistically speaking, there is a window of time where that is, in any reasonable way, relevant.

                                I don't dispute DD's reported work ethic, but as @Craiger points out, he is who he is. And who he is - is someone who needs much more than just improvement on his 3point % to make a significant impact.

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