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Thread: Couldn't believe this when I saw it

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Nobody would say that any of our starting five aren't talented. They are. But talent alone doesn't win games: you need a decent complimentary starting five as well, and our starting five don't compliment one another well: we have two paint players (Jonas and Amir), and three players whose primary game is drive-and-slash (Rudy, DeMar and Kyle). No serious perimeter threat to create spacing; it's a problem.

    This whole "best lineup" thing is kind of silly anyway. Ooh, our starting lineup is fifth? Man, it must've sucked for Boston, whose best lineup in this metric was 24th - oh, right, they won seven more games than we did. Well, it sure sucked for Golden State and Houston (19th and 20th respectively) - oh, right, 13 and 11 more wins than us, respectively.
    You're talking as if our starting five played the full 48 minutes each game. Those teams all have better bench line-ups. Ours was garbage.

    How many times did our bench dig us a hole we couldn't climb back out of? Too many fuckin times thats how many.

  2. #22
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    You're talking as if our starting five played the full 48 minutes each game. Those teams all have better bench line-ups. Ours was garbage.

    How many times did our bench dig us a hole we couldn't climb back out of? Too many fuckin times thats how many.
    To be fair there were an awful lot of games where the 1st quarter we got smoked and our 2nd unit came in and got us back in the game. Let's not forget all those slow starts.

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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Keep in mind that our schedule was much, much weaker in the last part of the season.
    But pro tank people almost always use the 4-19 start, which was an unbelievably tough schedule (4 games in 5 days, 3 times when nobody else had that 2x), with a very different line-up, as the team we're going into the season with.

  4. #24
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    I think these numbers show promise but a couple of reminders.

    that's a less than ten game sample size

    It came at the end of the season where we alternated between teams resting stars for the playoffs, and teams looking to plunge further into the tank hole

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Quote CT2010 wrote: View Post
    To be fair there were an awful lot of games where the 1st quarter we got smoked and our 2nd unit came in and got us back in the game. Let's not forget all those slow starts.
    The only thing I can think of is Alan Anderson turning into Kobe and that happened like 5 times throughout the entire season

  6. #26
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    But pro tank people almost always use the 4-19 start, which was an unbelievably tough schedule (4 games in 5 days, 3 times when nobody else had that 2x), with a very different line-up, as the team we're going into the season with.
    I tend to ignore the start (although we ALWAYS get a very tough schedule in the opening months, so it's not entirely irrelevant) and focus on the Rudy Raptors since that's effectively what we have going forward, and they were a just-below-.500 team that didn't play defense, and who got more than a few wins against teams that were tanking for the draft or resting for the playoffs.

    Assuming some incremental improvement gets us a couple more wins (not an unreasonable assumption) and we're basically a .500 team, which means we're most likely battling for a shot at the 8th seed with no obvious prospects for improving the team going forward because we're still going to be financially hammered in place.

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Ok people, teams don't rest their starters for the final 25 games. Only in the final 5 games of the season did we play teams who were resting their best players for the playoffs.

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    That lineup was also one of the best defensive lineups in the league!

    Now imagine that same lineup going through training camp together and getting more chemistry underneath them!
    We just need to make sure that Ross and Hansbrough can pick up the slack from the bench, because as I remember correctly, we would always lose our competitive edge the moment Lucas III came in... the offense fell to a hault, and the coach scrambled and improvised the rotations attempting to plug that whole.
    The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

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    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    Quote Michel G wrote: View Post
    25 games is not a large enough sample size?
    343 minutes is worth ten games not 25

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Some people on here are impossible to please. So quick so prove our optimism wrong with advanced stats that show we suck but when the stats show that's not true... somehow we still suck lol

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  12. #31
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    basically what I am saying is, although we should be encouraged that they do well together, I would temper that with a nice dose of reality

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
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    Many, including myself, have posted the reasons why this is likely an aberration. That said, if our five were an aberration, should there not be another aberration group? Of the top 15 ranked, all but us were not only playoff teams but top tier playoff teams. You have to fluke really hard to get that high on the list. Is it just the perfect storm of Rudy joining and Val returning at the same time as the schedule got softer and teams started resting/tanking? Maybe there is some gold in them thar hills. (yeah...fool's gold..I got it ) As much as the softer schedule can explain some of our wins, it doesn't have to explain our wins. We essentially had an entirely new team from Feb 1st on (rudy trade and JV back after 2 months). I'm wandering into the "tank or retool" thread but maybe Masai is holding still to see if this was only an aberration or if there may be something to it.

  15. #33
    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
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    and why is it only 25 games? Rudy and JV both joined the team with 33 games left. JV was eased back in for a couple of games but that's it. Was AB getting all those minutes?

  16. #34
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    The issue wasn't the starters, it's the bench. Then you have to ask, "Do you have to move a starter to improve the bench?" And then you get to start the ugly "Which one do you move?" debate. The Raptors still have a question mark at backup PG, and no offense off the bench, unless Ross takes a huge leap.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    Ok people, teams don't rest their starters for the final 25 games. Only in the final 5 games of the season did we play teams who were resting their best players for the playoffs.
    keep in mind at the end, toronto also started resting their starters in games as well.

  18. #36
    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    I don't get all of the problems people have with this... That line up played better than their competition by a significant margin. Does that mean they are the fifth best sarting line up in the league? No, of course not, what it means is that they played reasonnably well together last year and we should be optimistic that they might play well again this year. The sample size is not bad, about a quarter per game for 25 games and even if it's against scrubs like some people are suggesting, it still shows that that particular line up was able to beat those scrubs badly, which is positive and hasn't been the case with our starters for the last few years. Think of it like this: What was the Raptors total point differential for those games per 100 possesions? I'm not sure but I'm going to guess it was negative. Now how much better than that base line was this line up?

    I think it's a cool piece of data that gives us another reason to be optimistic.
    Last edited by hateslosing; Mon Jul 15th, 2013 at 03:45 PM.
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  19. #37
    Super Moderator thead's Avatar
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    that's what I am saying. Be encouraged, just don't start planning the parade route

  20. #38
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    Quote thead wrote: View Post
    that's what I am saying. Be encouraged, just don't start planning the parade route
    I don't think anybody is planning any parades, and few, if any, think the team as it sits right now (particularly with the low level of experience of key pieces) is a championship team, but many want to see a winning team for a change, see promise in how keeping a young core (JV, Gay, DD, Lowry, Amir, Ross, Acy, Psycho T, Fields from 21-27 years old) may be just that. At this point, nobody knows how good they could be together with adequate time together, but the development of JV, Ross and others being far better served on a winning team, rather than a bottom feeder praying for lottery luck.

    No matter the desired route, no championship is coming in the next couple of years, but building up the assets currently in the fold, then deciding which ones to move, and what's needed as return, is the balanced, see what we've got first approach that some see some promise in.

  21. #39
    Raptors Republic All-Star RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I've always said during the games that our starting line up is good enough for a contending team. Bench is the problem. Don't you remmember games and the pattern in every of them? 1st quarter, starters go for 28 point 12 minutes, Raps lead. 2nd quarter, bench plays and starters rest, we get blown out. 4th quarter, close but cannot close it out because of various reasons, coaching... etc... but mainly becaues of our bench.
    #FREE

  22. #40
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote RandomGuy wrote: View Post
    I've always said during the games that our starting line up is good enough for a contending team. Bench is the problem. Don't you remmember games and the pattern in every of them? 1st quarter, starters go for 28 point 12 minutes, Raps lead. 2nd quarter, bench plays and starters rest, we get blown out. 4th quarter, close but cannot close it out because of various reasons, coaching... etc... but mainly becaues of our bench.
    I remember the opposite happening a lot though as well ... dig ourselves a 10-15 point deficit by the end of the first quarter, and spend the rest of the game fighting our way back, only to lose by 2 points. UGH. Lol.
    In Masai we Trust.

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