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Thread: Raptors - a playoff team in 2013-14?

  1. #61
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote c_bcm wrote: View Post
    Ouch, critical thinking eh? I'd like to see the correlation between degree of critical thinking and predicting success in pro sports. I bet its no better than, or slightly above, random. There is every reason to believe that the Raptors are capable of making the playoffs next season. Every team in group 2, and some in group 1, are one injured player away from the lottery. I agree with lilmamba. Look at last season. We are a prime example of a team ready to make it to the post season, but didn't because of injuries.

    Sometimes the cynicism of fans on this site really cause me to shake my head in amazement.
    By "critical thinking", I meant analyzing all 15 Eastern Conference teams with equal scrutiny, rather than assuming everything will go right for Toronto, while everything will go wrong for others.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  2. #62
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    Quote isaacthompson wrote: View Post
    Maybe overthinking, but the fact that Rudy came from a winning atmosphere in Memphis SHOULD be to our advantage.
    "Winning culture" is something a lot of people over-value. So long as you aren't a hopeless sad-sack of a franchise like Charlotte where careers traditionally go to die or stuffed full of locker-room cancers, the quality of talent on your team is far, far more important than "winning culture." The Raptors currently seem to like one another; that's great. But they mostly liked each other last year and that didn't make them win more games.

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  4. #63
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Quote isaacthompson wrote: View Post
    If Detroit plans to put Josh Smith at the 3, that is a recipe for disaster. It will be his job as a 3 to space the floor, since they already have post presences in Drummond/Monroe. Smith getting a green light to shoot the 3pt shot is NOT what they want, but what they may have to live with. He shot 30% on 2.8 3-pointers a game last year playing the 4! We all know how notorious he is in that category.
    My guess is that Drummond will come off the bench which is where he should have been playing last season. Give him some time to catch up to the NBA game.

  5. #64
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Milwaukee got rid of a streaky, inefficient volume scorer when they let Monta Ellis leave, and Jennings is now in a contract year and has cause to make as many waves as possible. That assumes the Bucks don't trade him. Remember that the Bucks are nowhere near close to finishing their team yet; they have only about $46 million committed so far, so they can afford to snag a pricey asset from another team if need be. (I could honestly see them sign-and-trading for Gerald Henderson.) They have a top-10 center in Larry Sanders and a fairly deep bench (Carlos Delfino, Zaza Pachulia, Luke Ridnour, Ekpe Udoh).

    Don't get me wrong: I think the Bucks are going to have a very hard road ahead of them to make playoffs. But let's put it this way: they're a team whose starting five are a highly-promising young center, a good young power forward, a talented point guard in a contract year who needs to prove himself, a talented but questionable shooting guard and a strong small forward. Does that sound like anybody to you? Except that Ersan Ilyasova is a more efficient player than Rudy Gay?
    And they replaced Ellis with a worse inefficient volume scorer in Mayo. Everyone loves Mayo because he can shoot it....but he's failed to produce as expected in both Memphis and Dallas. Say what you want about Ellis, but I think he's a better player than Mayo. At least he can fill it up more and is a better offensive weapon.

    Jennings...Well, I am always very hard on him. Dude sucks. Plain and simple. Talent is nothing. What you do with it is everything. Did you by any chance check out the thread on Jennings? If not, there's a great youtube video breaking down why he's a horrible PG and why no one wants him. He is in a contract year, but that can't change that he's a subpar floor general and playmaker, a very inefficient scorer, a guy who can't finish going right at all, and who's D makes Jose Calderon look like Gary Payton.

    Anyway, we claerly don't disagree on their outlook, but I think they've taken a step back and they were a 37-win team last year. They'd need an unexpectedly strong season from Henson and/or Antetokounmpo in order to have a good shot. Otherwise I see their ceiling as low-30s in the win column.

  6. #65
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    "Winning culture" is something a lot of people over-value. So long as you aren't a hopeless sad-sack of a franchise like Charlotte where careers traditionally go to die or stuffed full of locker-room cancers, the quality of talent on your team is far, far more important than "winning culture." The Raptors currently seem to like one another; that's great. But they mostly liked each other last year and that didn't make them win more games.
    Agreed. "Winning culture" means jack all....unless you're the player single-handedly responsible for the winning (like a Kobe, Chris Paul, Shaq, LeBron, etc.)
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  7. #66
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote lilmamba_ wrote: View Post
    fine i guess talent, yes. much more, i guess not
    and by experience i mean playoffs experience, its nice to have those guys in your locker room
    What? Andrew Bynum has more playoff experience than our entire roster put together.

  8. #67
    Raptors Republic Starter Hassan's Avatar
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    The raptos could easily finish anywhere between 4-8 depending on off season improvements. If they keep this roster together and each player improves a bit then we can be contenders . The number 1 player that needs to improve is jonas if he becomes a top 5 centre in the league which is 100% possible then we will in the talk for a championship

  9. #68
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Number of playoff series won by our team:

    DeRozan - 0 (No appearances)
    Johnson - 1 (In his rookie season with Detroit, when he averaged 5.4 mpg in garbage time)
    Gay - 0
    Lowry - 1 (With the Rockets 5 years ago as a bench player averaging less than 20 mpg)
    Ross - 0 (No appearances)
    JV - 0 (No appearances)
    Fields - 0
    Buycks - 0 (No NBA experience, period.)
    Hansbrough - 3 (all playing less than 15 minutes a game with the Pacers)
    Augustin - 1 (with Indy this past year where he was a complete non factor)
    Gray - 1 (with New Orleans, where he averaged 3 and 3)
    Novak - 1 (This past season with New York where Novak got absolutely buried in the playoffs: 5.6mpg)

    Our most experienced playoff performer is Psycho T. 35 games. 16.3 minutes per night. 5.4 ppg. 3.5 rpg. 9.9 PER.

  10. #69
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    As for Atlanta....THey could be strong. But if talent's important...then, again, they've lost their 2 most talented players over the last 2 offseasons. They've mostly stood still. I think their best signing might have been Brand. Possibly hiring Budenholzer as a coach, but we'll see.

    Anyway, I think the teams behind them have more room to improve than they do, which will make it harder for them to maintain their hold (and also harder for the teams fighting, so no guarantees for anyone) . And I do think switching Smith for Millsap will make it harder. Millsap is a very nice player, but Smith was a real weapon on D. And Atlanta's probably not going to be a high-flying offensive team with their roster, so D will be important. That's how they generated fast breaks, and Smith was a big factor there. Williams, Millsap and Korver are none of them stellar on D, especially Korver.

    Horford is still stuck playing C in a conference that is getting bigger...Drummond, JV, Vucevic, Bynum, Hibbert, Chandler, Lopez....lots of guys who weren't around most of the years Atlanta was a good team. They're going to have issues with size a lot more often.

    Anyway, I think things will be harder for Atlanta than last year, and I can't see them being higher than a 7-8 seed.

    I actually think Ferry (he's running Atlanta now, right?) is doing something similar to what Ujiri is doing. Giving the roster a chance, but trying to make it easy to disassemble and rebuild. The team has a limited ceiling, so no reason to be too attached to anyone (though I'd bet they'd like to keep Horford). Lots of movable pieces.

  11. #70
    Raptors Republic All-Star Primer's Avatar
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    Locks (not necessarily in this order):
    1. Miami
    2. Indiana
    3. Chicago
    4. NY
    5. Brooklyn
    6. Atlanta

    Fringe:
    1. Toronto
    2. Cleveland
    3. Washington
    4. Milwaukee
    5. Detroit

    I honestly see the Raptors and Cavaliers making the playoffs out of the fringe bunch.
    Detroit is going to be bad. No playmakers, and Josh Smith as your #1 offensive option is a recipe for disaster. They will have some nice interior defense and that's about it. If they had held on to Calderon I would like their chances, but Knight is not going to lead that team to the playoffs.
    Milwaukee was barely a playoff team and had a losing record. They lose Ellis and Reddick and gain Mayo. That looks worse to me. Expect to see Jennings and Mayo jacking up ill advised shot after ill advised shot while Larry Sanders stands under the basket wide open shaking his head.
    Washington will be interesting but they need Wall and Beal to both approach all star status or they won't be making the playoffs. It would also help in Nene and Okafor could jump in a time machine before the season started.

    Of course things could always change with some trades, and I expect Cleveland, Detroit, Washington, and Milwaukee to all try to be active on the trade front to improve their chances from fringe to lock. The Raptors have the least invested in making the playoffs this year (all the step back to take a step forward talk) and seem like prime trade candidates with the other fringe teams, so definitely something to keep an eye on.

    My #1 reason I have the Raptors making the playoffs this year is JV. I see him emerging as a top 3 center in the East, and the amount of wins that come with that will safely push us into the playoffs.

  12. #71
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    The difference between success(play offs) and failure is CASEY. Can his coaching make this team come together and succeed? I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so.

    Ujiri has done his part in not only giving him a vote of confidence(retaining him) but supplying him with the players he wanted. It's up to Casey now.
    Attitude Is A Choice.

  13. #72
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Eric Akshinthala wrote: View Post
    The difference between success(play offs) and failure is CASEY. Can his coaching make this team come together and succeed? I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so.

    Ujiri has done his part in not only giving him a vote of confidence(retaining him) but supplying him with the players he wanted. It's up to Casey now.
    And the coaching staff.

  14. #73
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Detroit and Atlanta will both suck dick next year. That is my prediction. ^ This guy has Atlants as a lock... wtf man, they got Millsap and Horford... that's about it.

  15. #74
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    By this guy I mean Primer.

  16. #75
    Raptors Republic All-Star Primer's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    Detroit and Atlanta will both suck dick next year. That is my prediction. ^ This guy has Atlants as a lock... wtf man, they got Millsap and Horford... that's about it.
    Atlanta was a playoff lock last year with arguably a worse team. If Lou Williams and Zaza hadn't gotten hurt near the end of the season they probably would have been a 4 seed. They subtracted Josh Smith and Zaza, but added Millsap, Brand, and Carroll. They also retained Korver, the best shooter in the league. If you watched Atlanta you know Smith was a big help on defense and generally a nightmare of inefficiency on offense. Swapping him out with Millsap gives you a huge boost in efficiency without losing too much on D. Millsap also has less turnovers and is a better offensive rebounder than Smith, two stats that count a lot more towards wins than blocked shots. If you think Atlanta is taking a step back this year you are going to be sadly mistaken.

    Also, if you're a fan of advanced stats, Atlanta's win shares have gone up significantly from last year with the new players swapped out for the old. For instance, Millsap has a WS of 7.6 versus Smith's WS of 4.2. That's 3 more wins right there.
    Last edited by Primer; Mon Jul 22nd, 2013 at 01:58 PM.

  17. #76
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    I agree with the general sentiment that there are either five or six locks, and then an additional group of about six more fringe playoff teams. And overall, there are a lot of teams that improved more than we did. But trying to figure out how exactly that translates in the standings is not easy. I'd say that there's more parity in the eastern conference than we've seen in recent years. Even the dregs like Charlotte have made significant improvements, and Washington may improve simply through having healthy players. Philly and Orlando will both be bad, but not historically bad like Charlotte has been the last couple years. All of which means that there are simply fewer easy wins to go around. Last year there was a 20-win spread between the sixth and twelfth place teams. This year we may see standings at the end of the season where there are only 10 wins or less separating sixth and twelfth. (Although some teams in the thick of it may elect to blow themselves up mid-season and angle for the draft, which would increase the spread.) If that is the case and the division is much tighter, then predicting who makes and who doesn't is really just a toss-up. That increased parity is the closest I'm going to come to any sort of prediction for next year.

    I think I'm more of an optimist than most in that I actually like our core, but I can't bring myself to give the Raptors more than a 33% chance of making the playoffs this year, based on where guys are at now and what other teams have done. I can envision scenarios where everything goes right and the Raptors not only exceed the other fringe teams but actually climb into the 5 spot, but these are no more likely than scenarios where everything goes wrong (or right, depending on your enthusiasm for the draft) and the Raptors drop to the bottom of the conference.

  18. #77
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    Atlanta was a playoff lock last year with arguably a worse team. If Lou Williams and Zaza hadn't gotten hurt near the end of the season they probably would have been a 4 seed. They subtracted Josh Smith and Zaza, but added Millsap, Brand, and Carroll. They also retained Korver, the best shooter in the league. If you watched Atlanta you know Smith was a big help on defense and generally a nightmare of inefficiency on offense. Swapping him out with Millsap gives you a huge boost in efficiency without losing too much on D. Millsap also has less turnovers and is a better offensive rebounder than Smith, two stats that count a lot more towards wins than blocked shots. If you think Atlanta is taking a step back this year you are going to be sadly mistaken.

    Also, if you're a fan of advanced stats, Atlanta's win shares have gone up significantly from last year with the new players swapped out for the old. For instance, Millsap has a WS of 7.6 versus Smith's WS of 4.2. That's 3 more wins right there.
    Who the fuck is Carroll? Dude... just look at their roster for a few minutes... Their starting five is:

    Jeff Teague
    Lou Williams
    Kyle Korver
    Paul Millsap
    Al Horford

    Their top 3 guys off the bench are Elton Brand, Ivan Johnson and a rookie.

    I don't even know what else to say. Just look!

  19. #78
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    What? Andrew Bynum has more playoff experience than our entire roster put together.
    Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol

  20. #79
    Raptors Republic Starter JordanMariam14's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol
    Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.

  21. #80
    Raptors Republic Veteran rocwell's Avatar
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    Quote JordanMariam14 wrote: View Post
    Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.
    Hurts!

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