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Thread: Raptors - a playoff team in 2013-14?

  1. #81
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote JordanMariam14 wrote: View Post
    Yet he has more rings than our entire roster combined.
    So does Adam Morrison. Lots of guys with rings.

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  3. #82
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    Probably missed more games in the last 6 years than our entire roster put together, lol
    You could be right about that. I'd be nervous as a Cavs supporter this year having to rely on his health. But that doesn't make the claim that the Raptors have more playoff experience than Cleveland any more credible, which is what we were originally talking about. Varajeao and Bynum have 17 playoff series wins between them, the Raptors roster has less than half that as a whole.
    Last edited by Fully; Mon Jul 22nd, 2013 at 03:08 PM.

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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    You could be right about that. I'd be nervous as a Cavs supporter this year having to rely on his health. But that doesn't make the claim that the Raptors have more playoff experience than Cleveland any more credible, which is what we were originally talking about. Varajeao and Bynum have 17 playoff series wins between them, the Raptors roster has less than half that as a whole.
    True, and I guess my point is that until he's even healthy enough to even play in a playoff game, it doesn't mean much. And I don't think he's a motivator that's going impart playoff wisdom on anybody. He seems to have had motivation issues of his own.

  5. #84
    Raptors Republic Starter c_bcm's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    By "critical thinking", I meant analyzing all 15 Eastern Conference teams with equal scrutiny, rather than assuming everything will go right for Toronto, while everything will go wrong for others.
    Scrutiny is fine. I get scrutiny. It has less to do with everything going wrong for others than it does for thing to not go wrong for the Raps. You have to admit that this team has had major problems with injuries to key players the last few seasons. For me, the only leap of faith (as far as whether they will make the playoffs this year or not) is that this team can stay healthy.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Afro_Daddy's Avatar
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    Milwaukee Detroit and Cleveland all play in Chicago and Indys division might be harder for them to make it

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    Raptors Republic Starter Sam17's Avatar
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    Quote Afro_Daddy wrote: View Post
    Milwaukee Detroit and Cleveland all play in Chicago and Indys division might be harder for them to make it
    Good point. Didn't think of that

  8. #87
    Raptors Republic Rookie Afro_Daddy's Avatar
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    Ya I was thinking we should be 3rd in our division this year which is what Boston was last year. The central is tough and they can't all make it. My bet is cleavland is 3rd baring injuries Detroit comes close while the bucks free fall now that the report is out on there young big men. Atlanta and Washington could switch. Still all these teams could be better than us still no matter there standings in there own division. Just a different perspective

  9. #88
    Raptors Republic Rookie Afro_Daddy's Avatar
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    Yes I know atlanta and Washington are in the southeast with Miami

  10. #89
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote c_bcm wrote: View Post
    Scrutiny is fine. I get scrutiny. It has less to do with everything going wrong for others than it does for thing to not go wrong for the Raps. You have to admit that this team has had major problems with injuries to key players the last few seasons. For me, the only leap of faith (as far as whether they will make the playoffs this year or not) is that this team can stay healthy.
    The exception is Demar. Started every game for the last 3 seasons. He missed 5 in his rookie season, but I don't know if those were injury related or CD-DNPs.

    This is one thing I think people over look when analyzing production versus salary. I've actually been meaning to do a thread on it, but don't have the time atm.

    But I digress
    "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee

    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    Season is a write-off. Even if the team makes the playoffs, it's not building towards anything. If there ceiling is 7th/ 8th it's gonna be blown up
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    Season is a write-off. Even if the team makes the playoffs, it's not building towards anything. If there ceiling is 7th/ 8th it's gonna be blown up
    We're building around Jonas. He is the future of the franchise. This year will show us who fits with JV and who doesn't. It also wouldn't hurt JV at all to get some playoff experience, in fact, I think it is essential for him to grow as a player.

    This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.

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  14. #92
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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    We're building around Jonas. He is the future of the franchise. This year will show us who fits with JV and who doesn't. It also wouldn't hurt JV at all to get some playoff experience, in fact, I think it is essential for him to grow as a player.

    This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.
    I'm on your side with the tearing it down over and over. I just think that's what's gonna happen.
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

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  15. #93
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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    This ridiculous mentality of "we need to be a top 3 team or blow it up" has to stop. A 7 seed this year would be pretty damn good, and would set us up for a top 5 seed the following year. B-U-I-L-D-I-N-G being the key word. You can't just tear it down over and over and over to get a top draft pick, when we already have one in JV.
    I think this needs to be said as many times as it takes until it sinks in:

    I love Jonas, but he is one of the 2-3 star players you need to compete in the NBA and we do not have a second star player, much less a third. (Rudy is not a star player.) As for "building" this team - with what, exactly, do we build? How do we get that second (or third) star player? If you want to keep this roster going forward, then we can't sign a free agent - Rudy's salary and Kyle's extension kill that idea next year. We don't have any assets that we can trade for a star who aren't part of our current roster's core. So we're left with either getting very lucky in the draft (unlikely) or "internal development" and players just getting better over time (not good odds, except for JV).

    The simple truth is that this team has a ceiling, and it's probably around the 7 seed. If you want to get more than the 7 seed, fine: accept the fact that it means blowing up the current roster, because it's basically impossible otherwise. And if you have to blow up the roster, sooner is better than later.

    Related: Zach Lowe's piece in Grantland today re: each team's success in the offseason. Toronto is in the "winners, with caveats" section:

    Toronto Raptors

    This team could follow a number of different paths over the next two years or so, but they've found a ruthless negotiator in Masai Ujiri to guide them. Ujiri somehow dumped Andrea Bargnani on the Knicks in return for three draft picks and only one player on a guaranteed multiyear contract (Steve Novak), a move that at least creates the possibility of the Raps clearing max-level cap space as early as next summer.

    They'd have to part with Rudy Gay to get there, and Gay has a $19.3 million player option for 2014-15. Gay is still in his prime, and when they traded for him the Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out and secure a longer-term deal. Kyle Lowry will also be a free agent next summer, putting Toronto in a unique position in which they could compete for a playoff spot this season and then bottom out in 2014-15.

    Of course, this season is the best time in a decade to bottom out, and the Raps might be able to engineer that path with a few midseason trades. Everything's on the table, and the Bargnani trade was a nice start.

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  17. #94
    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    I think this needs to be said as many times as it takes until it sinks in:

    I love Jonas, but he is one of the 2-3 star players you need to compete in the NBA and we do not have a second star player, much less a third. (Rudy is not a star player.) As for "building" this team - with what, exactly, do we build? How do we get that second (or third) star player? If you want to keep this roster going forward, then we can't sign a free agent - Rudy's salary and Kyle's extension kill that idea next year. We don't have any assets that we can trade for a star who aren't part of our current roster's core. So we're left with either getting very lucky in the draft (unlikely) or "internal development" and players just getting better over time (not good odds, except for JV).

    The simple truth is that this team has a ceiling, and it's probably around the 7 seed. If you want to get more than the 7 seed, fine: accept the fact that it means blowing up the current roster, because it's basically impossible otherwise. And if you have to blow up the roster, sooner is better than later.

    Related: Zach Lowe's piece in Grantland today re: each team's success in the offseason. Toronto is in the "winners, with caveats" section:
    I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

    Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
    You beat me to it, but it won't sink in.

    See. It didn't.
    Last edited by p00ka; Tue Jul 23rd, 2013 at 10:59 AM.

  20. #96
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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    I didn't read past there. What makes you think you know better? Listing your opinion as if it's some fact and everyone who doesn't think the same is delusional..You don't have anymore of a clue than any of the rest of us here.
    Because it's not an opinion. It's fact.

    1. The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math.

    2. We're almost certainly not going to get a second star player in a trade because teams are extremely careful about trading stars, because everybody knows the NBA is a star-driven league and most mega-trades are driven by a primadonna like Dwight Howard demanding a trade (and we won't be a target for the Dwight Howards of the world) or, more rarely, money reasons (like the Harden trade, which everybody in basketball now acknowledges was the Wrong Thing for OKC to do).

    3. That leaves the draft, which is not great for finding star players when you aren't in the lottery, and internal development, which doesn't leave us with many options for growth.

    If you don't like that, well, tough. That's life. This is a star-driven league, always has been.

  21. #97
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    ..The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math....
    The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

    All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.

    Good enough for me.

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  23. #98
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

    All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.

    Good enough for me.
    If Gay & Lowry aren't in your long term plans (it sounds like your hypothetical plan has them expiring and being allowed to walk in free agency), then why would you bother going all in with them for a year just to try and grab the 7/8 seed and get thumped in the first round? Why not just trade them now, get picks/prospects/financial flexibility back in return if you plan on letting them wander off in free agency and receive squat?

    The narrative that this year should be about building around Jonas is fine. I just want to know what keeping Gay/Lowry/DD around has to do with it? Removing two of those three from the line up will only free up more shots and touches for JV while getting rid of the "win now" mandate in the short term that may prevent Casey from playing his younger guys through their mistakes. You really think those three are going to start deferring to our 20 year old centre when two of them are potentially in contract seasons?

    Oh, and if you trade them, you probably end up with a top five pick to team up with Jonas and hopefully build on for the next decade. As it stands now, the primes of the players on this team don't line up at all.

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  25. #99
    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Because it's not an opinion. It's fact.

    1. The roster, as built, can't add more top-tier free agents because of basic salary cap math.

    2. We're almost certainly not going to get a second star player in a trade because teams are extremely careful about trading stars, because everybody knows the NBA is a star-driven league and most mega-trades are driven by a primadonna like Dwight Howard demanding a trade (and we won't be a target for the Dwight Howards of the world) or, more rarely, money reasons (like the Harden trade, which everybody in basketball now acknowledges was the Wrong Thing for OKC to do).

    3. That leaves the draft, which is not great for finding star players when you aren't in the lottery, and internal development, which doesn't leave us with many options for growth.

    If you don't like that, well, tough. That's life. This is a star-driven league, always has been.
    uhm, no that's sports..not supremely affecting my life.

    Also once again wrong. That's opinion, not fact. Puffer proved it below. Your points can be argued, facts can't be argued.

    We're getting off-topic,btw
    Last edited by LBF; Tue Jul 23rd, 2013 at 11:36 AM.
    If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

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  26. #100
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    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    The roster will be completely different in 2 years, as deals expire and as Masai makes trades, uses picks. In two years, simply with existing options, the Raps could have 6 players still on rookie deals, but with anything from 1-3 years of NBA experience. They could have a star in Jonas. They could have solid role players in Amir, Fields, Ross, & Demar (or solid role players in the results of trading the last two). They could have two stars or otherwise high level players purchased (for as free agents. They could have 6 bench players making $2-3 million a year filling out the bench. That would put their salary level at around $75 million (rough math) which could be just south of luxury tax.

    All of this could be done without tanking or blowing it up but through building, smart trading, and otherwise intelligent management. This could put them into the second round of the playoffs for several years running.
    All you're doing is handwaving away with "intelligent management" to avoid answering the actual serious questions with respect to Raptors salary issues, which are as follows:

    1. Rudy costs $15 million this year and $19 million next year, and will most likely want at least $12-14 million going forward. He'll be able to get that somewhere. Do we re-sign him for that much?
    2. Kyle will want as max a deal as possible, presumably in the neighborhood of $9-10M or even more. Do we re-sign him for that much?
    3. Amir will need a new contract in 2014/15, will be in his prime and probably will want (and deserve!) at least $7-8 million if not more. Do we re-sign him for that much?

    Let's say in 2015-16 we have Rudy for $12m, Kyle for 9 and Amir for 8. Which I think is pretty optimistic, frankly, but let's say that's what we've got. That's 38 million once you add DeMar, 43 once you add in Jonas. Jonas will want his extension and he'll most likely deserve max, so we'll agree to give him $12-14m a year and hey presto, we're already capped out just by our starters for the next year. And then we're right back where we started.

    You can talk about "intelligent management" all you want, but there is a very simple question at the heart of all this: do you want to move forward with Rudy/Kyle/DeMar/Amir/Jonas as your core? Most of the people who are saying "come on, let's give them a chance" are basically saying yes to that. That's fine. But the price of having them as your core is that, well, they are mostly expensive, and they're not going to get cheaper in the near future.

    If you accept that at least some of Rudy, Kyle and DeMar need to go at some point, then the next question is "when" and from a risk-modelling standpoint the answer is "the sooner the better," because they're all basically known quantities and the odds (for Rudy and DeMar more than Kyle) are that their trade values are more likely to drop than raise. Trade Rudy now, and maybe you get reasonable value for him, because there's still upside attached to him. The other GMs all know about the vision issue and that he got eye surgery to correct it, and they're all wondering what we're wondering: was Rudy's shooting mediocre because of his vision, or because he's just a mediocre shooter? If it gets confirmed as the latter, then he'll get harder to trade. Right now Rudy has potential, and the one thing about the NBA that always turns out true is that GMs and fans alike are willing to overpay for potential. It just makes more sense to trade him now. (See also: DeMar.)

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