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Thread: Basket-Ball-Reference.com projections

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Default Basket-Ball-Reference.com projections

    So I was basketball-reference.com looking at Bernard James' stats. When I noticed they had a projected stats for next season. I'm pretty sure this new, as I don't recall seeing it there before. In any event I was very excited and thought I would compile their projections for the raptors. I think I've got everyone who is currently on the roster, but if I've missed anyone feel free to add them.

    Keep in mind that most of the numbers are per36 and NOT per game. So obviously, the numbers should be more accurate for starters and bench players who get heavy minutes.


    HTML Code:
    Name	FG	FGA	3P	3PA	FT	FTA	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS	FG%	3P%	FT%	WS/48
    JV	5.2	9.2	0.1	0.3	3.5	4.4	2.9	9	1.4	0.5	1.8	2.2	4.3	14	0.557	0.373	0.796	0.125
    Amir	5.1	9.2	0.1	0.3	2	2.7	3.5	9.3	1.9	1.1	1.6	1.9	4.6	12.4	0.557	0.37	0.732	0.139
    Gay	7	16.2	1	3.1	3.2	3.9	1.5	6.2	2.6	1.5	0.8	2.5	2.3	18.2	0.433	0.328	0.806	0.09
    Derozan	6.6	14.6	0.4	1.4	4.3	5.2	0.7	3.9	2.4	0.9	0.3	1.8	2.3	17.8	0.45	0.281	0.828	0.067
    Lowry		4.7	11.4	1.8	4.9	3.4	4.2	1	5.5	7.4	1.6	0.4	2.8	3.5	14.6	0.411	0.368	0.809	0.134
    Ross	5.5	13.1	1.8	5.3	1.1	1.5	1.1	4.5	1.8	1.3	0.5	1.5	3.4	14	0.424	0.344	0.733	0.038
    Fields	4.2	8.9	0.5	1.7	1.5	2.3	1.6	6.5	2.6	1.3	0.3	1.7	2	10.3	0.47	0.298	0.643	0.072
    Tyler	5	11.5	0.1	0.2	5.4	7.1	3.6	8.7	1	1	0.4	1.9	3.9	15.4	0.43	0.279	0.752	0.139
    Buycks	No Projection																			
    Augustin	4.1	10.6	1.7	4.9	2.7	3.2	0.7	3	6	0.9	0.1	2.2	1.9	12.6	0.384	0.35	0.859	0.082
    Acy	4.9	9.3	0.4	1.1	3.1	3.8	2.7	7.7	1.9	1.3	1.3	1.9	4.6	13.3	0.524	0.386	0.804	0.134
    Gray	3.8	7.5	0.1	0.4	1.5	2.7	3.3	10.1	2	0.8	0.6	2.4	5.5	9.3	0.51	0.357	0.563	0.072
    Novak	4.4	10.2	3.4	7.9	0.8	1	0.5	3.6	0.9	0.6	0.3	0.5	2.2	13.1	0.433	0.436	0.857	0.13
    QR	3.5	9.5	1.5	4.7	1.4	1.8	1.2	5.9	1.9	1.1	0.3	1.5	3	10	0.369	0.325	0.792	0.067

    JV's per 36 are 14pts 9rebs.

    As I pointed out in the derozan thread they predict he will shoot 0.286 from 3pt

    Lowry's numbers look nice.

    Obviously these are predictions, and I'm sure they're completely automated, which means there's sure to be a lot of variables that they haven't accounted for accurately, but hey, it's the off season! Speculation's all we've got! Feel free to post the predictions of any non-raptor players if you wish.

    For example

    Lebron James
    Season Age Lg FG FGA 3P 3PA FT FTA ORB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS FG% 3P% FT% WS/48
    2013-14 29 NBA 9.3 17.1 1.1 3.0 5.3 7.0 1.3 7.5 6.5 1.6 0.8 3.0 1.5 25.1 .546 .386 .758 .302
    Last edited by ezz_bee; Sun Jul 21st, 2013 at 09:54 PM.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mr.Z's Avatar
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    It hurts my eyes trying to read those stats.

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    I was noticing this the other day when looking at JV's stats, and it totally confused me, because his per36 in rebounds and points doesn't increase at all. Strangely, it also forecasts a .373 3pt average!

    So then I read the explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ojections.html
    It's an extremely simply system of projection, and because it largely takes a weighted average of past seasons to account for player growth, it seems to be totally useless when looking at a second-year player like JV.

    For most players it'll make more sense though. I can see it being a somewhat useful system in terms of balancing out a player's stats over years, but as an actual projection system, I don't see a lot of value to it.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Quote Mr.Z wrote: View Post
    It hurts my eyes trying to read those stats.
    No kidding. lol
    Follow me on Twitter - @11_RRyan

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Hopefully this should be easier to read the projected stats that ezz_bee put together in his OP:

    HTML Code:
    Name      Age  Lg   FG  FGA   3P  3PA   FT  FTA  ORB  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV   PF  PTS  FG%  3P%  FT% WS/48
    JV         21 NBA  5.2  9.2  0.1  0.3  3.5  4.4  2.9  9.0  1.4  0.5  1.8  2.2  4.3 14.0 .557 .373 .796  .125
    Amir       26 NBA  5.1  9.2  0.1  0.3  2.0  2.7  3.5  9.3  1.9  1.1  1.6  1.9  4.6 12.4 .557 .370 .732  .139
    Gay        27 NBA  7.0 16.2  1.0  3.1  3.2  3.9  1.5  6.2  2.6  1.5  0.8  2.5  2.3 18.2 .433 .328 .806  .09
    Derozan    24 NBA  6.6 14.6  0.4  1.4  4.3  5.2  0.7  3.9  2.4  0.9  0.3  1.8  2.3 17.8 .450 .281 .828  .067
    Lowry      27 NBA  4.7 11.4  1.8  4.9  3.4  4.2  1.0  5.5  7.4  1.6  0.4  2.8  3.5 14.6 .411 .368 .809  .134
    Ross       22 NBA  5.5 13.1  1.8  5.3  1.1  1.5  1.1  4.5  1.8  1.3  0.5  1.5  3.4 14.0 .424 .344 .733  .038
    Fields     25 NBA  4.2  8.9  0.5  1.7  1.5  2.3  1.6  6.5  2.6  1.3  0.3  1.7  2.0 10.3 .470 .298 .643  .072
    Tyler      28 NBA  5.0 11.5  0.1  0.2  5.4  7.1  3.6  8.7  1.0  1.0  0.4  1.9  3.9 15.4 .430 .279 .752  .139
    Buycks     ---- No Projection ----
    Augustin   26 NBA  4.1 10.6  1.7  4.9  2.7  3.2  0.7  3.0  6.0  0.9  0.1  2.2  1.9 12.6 .384 .350 .859  .082
    Acy        23 NBA  4.9  9.3  0.4  1.1  3.1  3.8  2.7  7.7  1.9  1.3  1.3  1.9  4.6 13.3 .524 .386 .804  .134
    Gray       29 NBA  3.8  7.5  0.1  0.4  1.5  2.7  3.3 10.1  2.0  0.8  0.6  2.4  5.5  9.3 .510 .357 .563  .072
    Novak      30 NBA  4.4 10.2  3.4  7.9  0.8  1.0  0.5  3.6  0.9  0.6  0.3  0.5  2.2 13.1 .433 .436 .857  .130
    QR         33 NBA  3.5  9.5  1.5  4.7  1.4  1.8  1.2  5.9  1.9  1.1  0.3  1.5  3.0 10.0 .369 .325 .792  .067

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Hopefully this should be easier to read the projected stats that ezz_bee put together in his OP:

    HTML Code:
    Name      Age  Lg   FG  FGA   3P  3PA   FT  FTA  ORB  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV   PF  PTS  FG%  3P%  FT% WS/48
    JV         21 NBA  5.2  9.2  0.1  0.3  3.5  4.4  2.9  9.0  1.4  0.5  1.8  2.2  4.3 14.0 .557 .373 .796  .125
    Amir       26 NBA  5.1  9.2  0.1  0.3  2.0  2.7  3.5  9.3  1.9  1.1  1.6  1.9  4.6 12.4 .557 .370 .732  .139
    Gay        27 NBA  7.0 16.2  1.0  3.1  3.2  3.9  1.5  6.2  2.6  1.5  0.8  2.5  2.3 18.2 .433 .328 .806  .09
    Derozan    24 NBA  6.6 14.6  0.4  1.4  4.3  5.2  0.7  3.9  2.4  0.9  0.3  1.8  2.3 17.8 .450 .281 .828  .067
    Lowry      27 NBA  4.7 11.4  1.8  4.9  3.4  4.2  1.0  5.5  7.4  1.6  0.4  2.8  3.5 14.6 .411 .368 .809  .134
    Ross       22 NBA  5.5 13.1  1.8  5.3  1.1  1.5  1.1  4.5  1.8  1.3  0.5  1.5  3.4 14.0 .424 .344 .733  .038
    Fields     25 NBA  4.2  8.9  0.5  1.7  1.5  2.3  1.6  6.5  2.6  1.3  0.3  1.7  2.0 10.3 .470 .298 .643  .072
    Tyler      28 NBA  5.0 11.5  0.1  0.2  5.4  7.1  3.6  8.7  1.0  1.0  0.4  1.9  3.9 15.4 .430 .279 .752  .139
    Buycks     ---- No Projection ----
    Augustin   26 NBA  4.1 10.6  1.7  4.9  2.7  3.2  0.7  3.0  6.0  0.9  0.1  2.2  1.9 12.6 .384 .350 .859  .082
    Acy        23 NBA  4.9  9.3  0.4  1.1  3.1  3.8  2.7  7.7  1.9  1.3  1.3  1.9  4.6 13.3 .524 .386 .804  .134
    Gray       29 NBA  3.8  7.5  0.1  0.4  1.5  2.7  3.3 10.1  2.0  0.8  0.6  2.4  5.5  9.3 .510 .357 .563  .072
    Novak      30 NBA  4.4 10.2  3.4  7.9  0.8  1.0  0.5  3.6  0.9  0.6  0.3  0.5  2.2 13.1 .433 .436 .857  .130
    QR         33 NBA  3.5  9.5  1.5  4.7  1.4  1.8  1.2  5.9  1.9  1.1  0.3  1.5  3.0 10.0 .369 .325 .792  .067
    Hooray! by quoting you I was able to duplicate your table. Still not perfect, but MUCH easier to read. Thanks!
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    So, looking at win shares, assuming that each of the five starters average 32 minutes a game over the season (for approximately 30.5 wins' worth of win share) and assuming that everybody else other than QR averages 6 minutes a game over the season and assigning Buycks a WS/48 of .1 (for approximately 10.5 wins' worth of win share), that's a projection of 41 wins. Exactly .500.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    So, looking at win shares, assuming that each of the five starters average 32 minutes a game over the season (for approximately 30.5 wins' worth of win share) and assuming that everybody else other than QR averages 6 minutes a game over the season and assigning Buycks a WS/48 of .1 (for approximately 10.5 wins' worth of win share), that's a projection of 41 wins. Exactly .500.
    Sounds pretty probable.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Are we projected to be the highest scoring team of all time?

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Hansborough our 3rd leading scorer???
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Mack North's Avatar
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    We're looking at one hell of a rebounding team too! I can't believe Gray is gonna average 10.1 boards! Not sure how much stock, if any, I place in these projections, but it's nice to dream.
    Keep Calm & Chive On

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    Quote Mack North wrote: View Post
    We're looking at one hell of a rebounding team too! I can't believe Gray is gonna average 10.1 boards! Not sure how much stock, if any, I place in these projections, but it's nice to dream.
    Keep in mind those numbers are per 36 minutes. Gray averaged 12 rbs per36 the last couple years before nine this year, so 10 wouldn't be that unusual. If he gets 12 minutes a game like he did last year, that comes out to around 3.3 rebounds per game.

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    Because I was curious, I took the method I applied to project out Toronto's win total (namely: apply win shares to probable starting lineup at an average of 32 minutes per game, apply win shares to probable bench at an average of 6 minutes per game, add it all up) and applied it to the other teams people here have argued are competing for the last 2-3 playoff seeds, and the results are as follows:

    Atlanta: 48 wins
    Washington: 44.5 wins
    Cleveland: 41 wins *
    Detroit: 38 wins
    Boston: 32 wins
    Milwaukee: 31 wins *
    Charlotte: 28 wins *

    Charlotte, Cleveland and Milwaukee come with big asterisks. They currently do not have fullly determined rosters (Milwaukee currently has 11 probable players, Cleveland and Charlotte have 12) which prejudices their scores a bit. Cleveland also has potentially wide variance because I had to guesstimate winshare projections for Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev and Andrew Bynum, and also guess as to whether Bynum would start or come off the bench. Ultimately I gave Bennett a WS/48 of .1 (which is also what I gave to any lottery pick I had to estimate), Karasev a .050 and Bynum .120 as a bench player averaging 6 minutes (which gave him a WS/48 less than two-thirds of his last WS/48 in 2011/12, which would be very low for him, historically speaking). I think both will better these estimates by 2-3 wins at least because they're both going to add a 1-2 more good players from the remaining free agents, and in particular I think Cleveland has a good chance of exceeding my guesstimates.

    This would mean that, per BR's projections, the Raps will come in ninth in the East, which would be the absolute worst place they could finish.

    UPDATE: Someone messaged me asking about Boston and Charlotte so I added them.
    Last edited by magoon; Tue Jul 23rd, 2013 at 09:52 AM.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    Are we projected to be the highest scoring team of all time?
    I made the same mistake... that's why I put in the note about the stats being Per 36. Obviously those guys can't all play 36 minutes in the same game. Unless there was about 10 OT periods. We can always hope!


    Quote Mack North wrote: View Post
    We're looking at one hell of a rebounding team too! I can't believe Gray is gonna average 10.1 boards! Not sure how much stock, if any, I place in these projections, but it's nice to dream.
    See above.

    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Because I was curious, I took the method I applied to project out Toronto's win total (namely: apply win shares to probable starting lineup at an average of 32 minutes per game, apply win shares to probable bench at an average of 6 minutes per game, add it all up) and applied it to the other teams people here have argued are competing for the last 2-3 playoff seeds, and the results are as follows:

    Atlanta: 48 wins
    Washington: 44.5 wins
    Cleveland: 41 wins *
    Detroit: 38 wins
    Milwaukee: 31 wins *

    Cleveland and Milwaukee come with big asterisks. Both currently do not have fullly determined rosters (Milwaukee currently has 11 probable players, Cleveland has 12) which prejudices their scores a bit. Cleveland also has potentially wide variance because I had to guesstimate winshare projections for Anthony Bennett, Sergey Karasev and Andrew Bynum, and also guess as to whether Bynum would start or come off the bench. Ultimately I gave Bennett a WS/48 of .1 (which is also what I gave to any lottery pick I had to estimate), Karasev a .050 and Bynum .120 as a bench player averaging 6 minutes (which gave him a WS/48 less than two-thirds of his last WS/48 in 2011/12, which would be very low for him, historically speaking). I think both will better these estimates by 2-3 wins at least because they're both going to add a 1-2 more good players from the remaining free agents, and in particular I think Cleveland has a good chance of exceeding my guesstimates.

    This would mean that, per BR's projections, the Raps will come in ninth in the East, which would be the absolute worst place they could finish.
    Awesome work!!!

    Certainly there are issues with using the above a predictive model. However, I do think it reinforces that the raps are not a lock for the playoffs. With the current roster they've got about a 50-50 chance.

    Also, why is 9th worse than 8th? If we face Miami will win 1 game. (The only reason why we wouldn't get swept is that they have a [BAD] habit of letting teams win a game.) We get a token appearance in the playoffs and lotto balls. I don't care about making the playoffs, I care about WINNING A PLAYOFF SERIES!!! Save the token appearances for the bucks.

    At least with 9th we get some balls. I want those balls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Next season if we can't get 6th or 7th, than I want to be 11th or worse.

    At the moment here's my preference for the Raps

    1) Home court advantage in the first round (not likely. not likely at all)

    2) Finish 6th (More likely than 1, but requires us to be better than all of the Hawks, Bucks, Pistons, Cavs, Wiz, which I dont' see happening)

    3) Worst record in the league. (Unfortunately this is as probable as number 1.)

    4) have the 4th worst (or worse) record in the conference. (I think this is doable, with some key trades, BEFORE christmas)

    5) Finish as the 7th seed.

    6) Finish 9-11 in the conference

    7) Finish 8th.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    Also, why is 9th worse than 8th?
    They're both terrible. 9th gives us a tiny shot at a high-level lottery pick, 8th gives us an even tinier chance of advancing in the playoffs, but in both cases we get stuck in the mediocre middle of the NBA, which is the worst possible place to be.

    If we're not making playoffs this year - and I don't think we are - then we should bottom out now and get it over with.

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