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Thread: Lowe: NBA Offseason Moves: Who Won?

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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Default Lowe: NBA Offseason Moves: Who Won?

    Winners, With Caveats

    Toronto Raptors

    This team could follow a number of different paths over the next two years or so, but they've found a ruthless negotiator in Masai Ujiri to guide them. Ujiri somehow dumped Andrea Bargnani on the Knicks in return for three draft picks and only one player on a guaranteed multiyear contract (Steve Novak), a move that at least creates the possibility of the Raps clearing max-level cap space as early as next summer.

    They'd have to part with Rudy Gay to get there, and Gay has a $19.3 million player option for 2014-15. Gay is still in his prime, and when they traded for him the Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out and secure a longer-term deal. Kyle Lowry will also be a free agent next summer, putting Toronto in a unique position in which they could compete for a playoff spot this season and then bottom out in 2014-15.

    Of course, this season is the best time in a decade to bottom out, and the Raps might be able to engineer that path with a few midseason trades. Everything's on the table, and the Bargnani trade was a nice start.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...ything-between


    I find that blurb about Gay interesting.. I wonder if the Raptors have had private talks with Gay about opting out so that they can resign him to a longer term deal. That would also mean that the Raptors would have no intention of trading him this season.

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    Win-Win situation for everyone if the Raptors and Gay proceed that way.
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    I don't see Gay turning down a 4yr/14M extension. Then you're only paying 23M for him and DeMar which is more than ok for one of the league's best wing tandems. If Gay isn't playing at a high level then you just let him walk or orchestrate a S&T.

    We'd have around 30M to play with in 2015 FA with DeMar, Gay, Val, Ross, Acy, Novak on the roster. With guys like Love, Rondo and Aldridge available that's a great position to be in.

    I also expect tons of teams to blow their loads in 2014 after striking out on LBJ/Melo and the other stars. We might be positioned to secure 2 max level players.
    Last edited by Xixak; Thu Jul 25th, 2013 at 09:55 AM.

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    It would give the team more flexibility to take in a better cast and push hard for championships 4-5 years down the line.

    In order for Gay to fall in line with this type of projection, they would have to do very well this year.

    So I'm sure these things have been talked about with no consequence.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I don't see Gay turning down a 4yr/14M extension. Then you're only paying 23M for him and DeMar which is more than ok for one of the league's best wing tandems. If Gay isn't playing at a high level then you just let him walk or orchestrate a S&T.

    We'd have around 30M to play with in 2015 FA with DeMar, Gay, Val, Ross, Acy, Novak on the roster. With guys like Love, Rondo and Aldridge available that's a great position to be in.

    I also expect tons of teams to blow their loads in 2014 after striking out on LBJ/Melo and the other stars. We might be positioned to secure 2 max level players.
    Why would he accept a 4 year, $14 million extension? Please tell me you mean a 4 year, $56 million contract! There is absolutely no way he would go $3.5 per year! To be honest, even if it was a 4 years, $56 million contract, I don't really feel comfortable with that! I'm more inclined to give him a 4 year, $48 million contract extension at most!

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    Quote Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
    Why would he accept a 4 year, $14 million extension? Please tell me you mean a 4 year, $56 million contract! There is absolutely no way he would go $3.5 per year! To be honest, even if it was a 4 years, $56 million contract, I don't really feel comfortable with that! I'm more inclined to give him a 4 year, $48 million contract extension at most!
    I'm pretty sure he implied 4 years $56M.. at Gay's age (he's three years younger than Iggy) I don't think he would go for a contract @ $12M per. I'd be willing to pay $14M per for him.. he would still be a tradeable asset if his production stays the same for the next 2-3 years. And unless he has a massive injury I don't think his production will go down that much.

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    Quote Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
    Why would he accept a 4 year, $14 million extension? Please tell me you mean a 4 year, $56 million contract! There is absolutely no way he would go $3.5 per year! To be honest, even if it was a 4 years, $56 million contract, I don't really feel comfortable with that! I'm more inclined to give him a 4 year, $48 million contract extension at most!
    Yeah sorry that's what I meant (as evidenced by me saying it's 23M for him and DeMar). Calm the fuck down.

    And nobody cares what you "feel comfortable" with or are "inclined to give him". The market has been set. Iguodala got 4yr/48M and he doesn't have Rudy's offense, few teams had the cap to sign him and he's older. Tyreke got that money as well. If you think Rudy isn't gonna get more than that at age 27 you are high.

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I'm pretty sure he implied 4 years $56M.. at Gay's age (he's three years younger than Iggy) I don't think he would go for a contract @ $12M per. I'd be willing to pay $14M per for him.. he would still be a tradeable asset if his production stays the same for the next 2-3 years. And unless he has a massive injury I don't think his production will go down that much.
    Thank you for your reasonable and well-thought out post.

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    I think if we don't make the playoffs this year, Gay and Lowry are boh likely gone. I think Ujiri will blow us up and Gay and Lowry will both either be sent packing or walk away on their own. The thing with all this tanking talk is that this year should be a good one for a team like the Raps who are trying to make the transition to being a playoff team. The bottom of the league should be really bad because everyone is going to try to tank and I think that when we hit mid season, you're going to see a fire sale from a lot of the middle of the pack teams that are going to try to improve their lotery position. If the seasons going well at that point we might pick up a good piece.
    I'm not sure if it was Colangelo's intention but he left us with a great oppurtunity to either go into a full rbuild or try to reup our guys and compete, based on the results this season.
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    I also feel like the talent gap is wide between high-calibre wings and others. Gay has never made an all-star game and he's still a better player than the above mentioned Iguodala. No way he gets less than 13-14 million per year.

    And what I mean specifically about the talent gap has to do with having multi-tool wings who are above average at pretty much everything, especially offensively. How many guys in the league who play either SF or SG would you want creating their own shot with the clock running low?
    -LBJ, KD, Melo, George, Gay, Kobe (if he's still Kobe post-Achilles), Wade, Harden....(maybe others I'm not thinking of)
    -I mean, not counting guys who can't do it anymore (Manu, VC, Pierce, etc...old guys, you know?)
    -And guys who have the talent but haven't proven anything (Evans, Beal, and anyone else I can't think of)....
    -I don't even know where to put JJ, because he looks to have had a shitty year last year, but I didn't watch BKL play a lot. Probably still a good option, but I was hesitant to put him there. Even hesitated with Wade, but he's still too effective with the ball in his hands not to.

    Anyway, that's not a lot of top options, just 9 at most if you count JJ and Wade. If Gay took 14 million, he'd be the lowest paid in that top group (as soon as George's max extension kicks in)...and probably rightfully so. He's not a better player than most of those guys (think you could argue it for JJ and Wade), though he is a better defensive player than some.

    *Edit: Should probably note some pretty solid wings I don't include. Because really, they are not guys you want to use regularly in such situations. Guys like Iggy, Deng, Batum, Matthews, Redick, Mayo, and pretty much any "3 and D" guy. Most of these guys don't actually have the scoring options in their arsenal to be a high-quality threats in these tough situations. Any of them is a decent option and can hit a shot, but I just can't put them in the same category as the guys I'd really want to be taking tough shots, and managing the ball in clutch situations. If they can get Gay at 12 or 13, that's nearly a steal (and I'm not his biggest fan at all).
    Last edited by white men can't jump; Thu Jul 25th, 2013 at 12:02 PM.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Iguodala got 4yr/48M and he doesn't have Rudy's offense, few teams had the cap to sign him and he's older.
    Iguodala plays much better defense and has better IQ and better off-ball movement. Rudy's offense is volume; he's not efficient (he was at one point) and his true shooting % is well below Iggy's. Oh, and Iggy was being courted by multiple teams (Sacramento, Detroit, Golden State, Houston and Dallas).

    Tyreke got that money as well.
    True, but Tyreke is 23 and has potential upside and room for growth; teams overpay for that. Rudy is basically a known quantity at this point.

    I agree with you that somebody will offer Rudy $14m per year - there's always someone willing to overpay a talented-but-flawed player like Rudy. The question is: should it be us? And I think if we can't get Rudy for $11M per year or less, then the answer is no.

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    I think if he has a breakout season like Casey and Ujiri except. They will sell him on how he could make up that 5 mill he'd be giving up through endorsements.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Iguodala plays much better defense and has better IQ and better off-ball movement. Rudy's offense is volume; he's not efficient (he was at one point) and his true shooting % is well below Iggy's. Oh, and Iggy was being courted by multiple teams (Sacramento, Detroit, Golden State, Houston and Dallas).



    True, but Tyreke is 23 and has potential upside and room for growth; teams overpay for that. Rudy is basically a known quantity at this point.

    I agree with you that somebody will offer Rudy $14m per year - there's always someone willing to overpay a talented-but-flawed player like Rudy. The question is: should it be us? And I think if we can't get Rudy for $11M per year or less, then the answer is no.
    11m are you serious? That is Asinine

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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    11m are you serious? That is Asinine
    Agreed! $11 million is cutting it a bit short! I would say $12-$12.5 million is fair for what he's shown right now! If he drastically improve his efficiency (maybe from the eye surgery) while still averaging 20+ PPG (45% FG and 40% 3FG) and playing better defense, then I would say giving him a $14 million per year would be reasonable! Remember, there's a big difference between what contract he will get, what he wants, and what he's worth! The contract he will get is roughly $14 million-$16 million per year because there will be teams that are willing to over pay for him. Unfortunately, we might be that team if we decide to keep him. Gay probably doesn't want that big of a paycut, so he probably wouldn't want anything less than $14 million per year. The contract that he's worth given is inefficient volume shooting is probably $12-13 million per year. Of course, again, this can all change if he improves next year!
    Last edited by Blacklash2k4; Thu Jul 25th, 2013 at 12:07 PM.

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    Quote hateslosing wrote: View Post
    I think if we don't make the playoffs this year, Gay and Lowry are boh likely gone. I think Ujiri will blow us up and Gay and Lowry will both either be sent packing or walk away on their own. The thing with all this tanking talk is that this year should be a good one for a team like the Raps who are trying to make the transition to being a playoff team. The bottom of the league should be really bad because everyone is going to try to tank and I think that when we hit mid season, you're going to see a fire sale from a lot of the middle of the pack teams that are going to try to improve their lotery position. If the seasons going well at that point we might pick up a good piece.
    I'm not sure if it was Colangelo's intention but he left us with a great oppurtunity to either go into a full rbuild or try to reup our guys and compete, based on the results this season.
    Wait a minute! Are you hinting that Colangelo maybe knew what he was doing? That's a nono on raptorsrepublic
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    Quote LBF wrote: View Post
    Wait a minute! Are you hinting that Colangelo maybe knew what he was doing? That's a nono on raptorsrepublic
    Colangelo was actually starting to figure his shit out with that Gay trade (he was planning to extend him too). What screwed him was the pursuit of Nash. If not for that he likely doesn't sign Fields and drafts Drummond instead of Ross (who we picked because he was supposedly an NBA ready shooter).

    I like the approach we're taking. Wtf is the point in tanking anyway? Even if we finished dead last there's a higher chance we pick 4th than 1st, end up getting a fringe all-star who we have to wait just to see if they'll even become a Rudy Gay level player. No thanks.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Colangelo was actually starting to figure his shit out with that Gay trade (he was planning to extend him too). What screwed him was the pursuit of Nash. If not for that he likely doesn't sign Fields and drafts Drummond instead of Ross (who we picked because he was supposedly an NBA ready shooter).

    I like the approach we're taking. Wtf is the point in tanking anyway? Even if we finished dead last there's a higher chance we pick 4th than 1st, end up getting a fringe all-star who we have to wait just to see if they'll even become a Rudy Gay level player. No thanks.
    I don't have the link, but there was a piece (in the Toronto Star, I think...) where Colangelo was essentially quoted as saying he didn't draft Drummond because of his "red flags" (i.e. his personality, work ethic, motor, etc.). If this is true, I don't think Drummond was ever a realistic option for Colangelo.
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Iguodala plays much better defense and has better IQ and better off-ball movement. Rudy's offense is volume; he's not efficient (he was at one point) and his true shooting % is well below Iggy's. Oh, and Iggy was being courted by multiple teams (Sacramento, Detroit, Golden State, Houston and Dallas).

    Rudy is a better overall player than Iguodala and younger. Iguodala might fit better on certain teams as a role player but Rudy is a superior player so he will make more money. He is also younger. Btw Houston was never a serious suitor because they were invested in Dwight and Sacramento offered Iguodala FOUR YEARS FIFTY-SIX MILLION but pulled the offer when he took too long to accept.

    You are crazy if you think Gay isn't worth 14M in the current NBA market, that is what it costs for a player of that caliber.


    True, but Tyreke is 23 and has potential upside and room for growth; teams overpay for that. Rudy is basically a known quantity at this point.

    I agree with you that somebody will offer Rudy $14m per year - there's always someone willing to overpay a talented-but-flawed player like Rudy. The question is: should it be us? And I think if we can't get Rudy for $11M per year or less, then the answer is no.

    I love Raptors fans. Tyreke has 11M worth of potential and growth but DeMar doesn't have 9M worth at the same age lmao. Even though Reke has regressed every year except the last.
    .

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Colangelo was actually starting to figure his shit out with that Gay trade (he was planning to extend him too). What screwed him was the pursuit of Nash. If not for that he likely doesn't sign Fields and drafts Drummond instead of Ross (who we picked because he was supposedly an NBA ready shooter).

    I like the approach we're taking. Wtf is the point in tanking anyway? Even if we finished dead last there's a higher chance we pick 4th than 1st, end up getting a fringe all-star who we have to wait just to see if they'll even become a Rudy Gay level player. No thanks.
    That's interesting with Nash..I feel like there's more to that story than what was made public
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    love Raptors fans. Tyreke has 11M worth of potential and growth but DeMar doesn't have 9M worth at the same age lmao. Even though Reke has regressed every year except the last.
    I didn't say I thought Tyreke was worth $11M a year - I thought it was a massive overpay and Sacramento was right to do the sign-and-trade. I just explained why he got it. New Orleans is banking on him breaking out and becoming at least a 9M player in a couple of years so the overpay isn't excessive, just like we're banking on DeMar becoming a $7M player (which I don't think he is yet).

    And we continue to disagree re: Rudy v. Iggy, except that Rudy is definitely younger than Iggy (no argument there!). Iggy does everything but score well, and his scoring isn't bad (good TS, perfectly respectable FG and 3P percentages) - it's just that he works best as your complementary piece who makes everyone else on the floor better. Rudy isn't a bad player by any stretch and does most things either okay or well, but his supposed strength (scoring) hasn't really been in evidence for years now as his efficiency has regressed.

    I certainly think somebody will offer Rudy $14M, I agree with you on that. I just think it shouldn't be us.

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