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Thread: Lowe: NBA Offseason Moves: Who Won?

  1. #21
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    I don't like the fact that we're "winners" because of our GM. The last time we were off-season winners it was because of the GM too.

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    The best thing about signing Gay for 12 to 14M (wherever the number ends up) is that free up some salary (about 5 to 7M next year) to pursue better bench talent and extend players like Lowry if we choose. Building a viable team with Gay at 19M is difficult, but with Gay at 14M is easier. That said, no guarantee that this will move the Raptors of the treadmill to becoming contenders.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    I didn't say I thought Tyreke was worth $11M a year - I thought it was a massive overpay and Sacramento was right to do the sign-and-trade. I just explained why he got it. New Orleans is banking on him breaking out and becoming at least a 9M player in a couple of years so the overpay isn't excessive, just like we're banking on DeMar becoming a $7M player (which I don't think he is yet).

    And we continue to disagree re: Rudy v. Iggy, except that Rudy is definitely younger than Iggy (no argument there!). Iggy does everything but score well, and his scoring isn't bad (good TS, perfectly respectable FG and 3P percentages) - it's just that he works best as your complementary piece who makes everyone else on the floor better. Rudy isn't a bad player by any stretch and does most things either okay or well, but his supposed strength (scoring) hasn't really been in evidence for years now as his efficiency has regressed.

    I certainly think somebody will offer Rudy $14M, I agree with you on that. I just think it shouldn't be us.
    Took the words right out of my mouth! I can't agree with this more than I already do now!

  4. #24
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    I think ideally, you try to get him at 12 per...but you can settle for offering 12.5 guaranteed, and a deal that with incentives can average either 13.5 or 14. I wonder if he'd take that? Like 4 years, 50 million guaranteed, and up to maybe 56 million with incentives.

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    Iguodala, Smith and Gay posted TS% of 52%, 50% and 49%, respectively last season! Just saying! Iggy might now seems like a better offensive player, but he is based on the true shooting percentage which takes into account scoring efficiency based on field goals, three-point field goals and free throws.

  6. #26
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    Quote Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
    Iguodala, Smith and Gay posted TS% of 52%, 50% and 49%, respectively last season! Just saying! Iggy might now seems like a better offensive player, but he is based on the true shooting percentage which takes into account scoring efficiency based on field goals, three-point field goals and free throws.
    But the thing about Gay compared to Iguodala and Smith, is that he's better at getting you buckets in lower percentage situations for your team. He's slightly less efficient overall, but he can get you that tough fade away over two defenders. That deep three with the clock winding down....whatever crazy ass shot your team needs in a tough spot, Gay is much better at that than most wing players in the league.

    The biggest problem with Gay is his current salary level. But again, if he were making 12-13 million a year, that's low for a guy among a select group of wings who can be that type of "tough situation" scorer, pretty much all of whom are max players.

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    I think ideally, you try to get him at 12 per...but you can settle for offering 12.5 guaranteed, and a deal that with incentives can average either 13.5 or 14. I wonder if he'd take that? Like 4 years, 50 million guaranteed, and up to maybe 56 million with incentives.
    I think you have to see what other players that are comparable in talent to him make, then add $2 Million per season because he obviously thinks he's better than what he actually is.

  8. #28
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    You are crazy if you think Gay isn't worth 14M in the current NBA market, that is what it costs for a player of that caliber.
    Current NBA market, that's exactly it. I could see Ujiri handling Gay much like he did Nene; sign a star player to a contract that is within fair market value, even if it's not the right financial and personnel fit for the team, and then move him for the right deal later when he becomes expendable. Though this spans two GMs, turning an expiring Calderon and Davis into Rudy Gay signed longterm at $14 million is absolutely great asset management, whether the plan is to keep him or trade him.

    If someone's going to offer Gay $14 million in free agency (which I think we all agree would happen), then he has even more value as a signed asset because that means that teams over the cap can trade us matching salary for him (not in a sign-and-trade scenario... I mean we extend him ASAP and then keep ourselves open to trading him further down the road).

    The alternate -- allowing him to expire -- gives us cap space, and then we're forced into a situation where we potentially end up overpaying for a replacement player not as good as Gay. Based on his track record in Denver, I don't think Ujiri places much value in cap space, compared to how he values players and contracts. Even Kleiza he seemed reluctant to amnesty because of the value in a contract. Letting Gay expire just seems like it would be the last option for Ujiri.

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    Quote Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
    Iguodala, Smith and Gay posted TS% of 52%, 50% and 49%, respectively last season! Just saying! Iggy might now seems like a better offensive player, but he is based on the true shooting percentage which takes into account scoring efficiency based on field goals, three-point field goals and free throws.
    Gay had ONE off year shooting the ball. In the previous 5 he shot like this:

    2011-2012: 52.1% TS: 46-31-79
    2010-2011: 54.8% TS: 47-40-81
    2009-2010: 53.5% TS: 47-33-75
    2008-2009: 52.8% TS: 45-35-77
    2007-2008: 54.6% TS: 46-35-79

    Gay is the type of player that shoots 53% TS with 45-35-80 type shooting numbers. He'll give you 20ppg and make a number of difficult shots that most players can't. On top of that you get 6 boards, 3 assists, a block & steal and well above average defense.

    He's worth 4yr/$56M and he's better than Smith and Iguodala.

  10. #30
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    We could legitimately extend Gay then max Love and/or Rondo in 2015.

    Rondo
    DeRozan
    Gay
    Love
    Valanciunas

    Is a very dangerous team.

  11. #31
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    But the thing about Gay compared to Iguodala and Smith, is that he's better at getting you buckets in lower percentage situations for your team. He's slightly less efficient overall, but he can get you that tough fade away over two defenders. That deep three with the clock winding down....whatever crazy ass shot your team needs in a tough spot, Gay is much better at that than most wing players in the league.

    The biggest problem with Gay is his current salary level. But again, if he were making 12-13 million a year, that's low for a guy among a select group of wings who can be that type of "tough situation" scorer, pretty much all of whom are max players.
    Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

    To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.

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  13. #32
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    We could legitimately extend Gay then max Love and/or Rondo in 2015.

    Rondo
    DeRozan
    Gay
    Love
    Valanciunas

    Is a very dangerous team.
    If we had both Love and JV I'm not sure if the other team would get a single rebound. I'm interested to see how Rondo does this year with all the big 3 gone. Not sure if he's really a max-ish level guy or a player who looked better due to his surroundings. It's his team now so no excuses.

  14. #33
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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA. Maybe if Smith was more committed to his post game he could be creating his own shots too, but he is way too fond of long jump shots and 3's, which he is atrocious at (he's been shooting them for years so it's not something likely to be fixed). Just look at their shot charts from last year. Gay is average to above average from basically everywhere on the floor. Smith is below average almost everywhere and only above average under the basket.

    To those arguing Iggy is better on offense due to his TS% need to realize he only scored 13pts a game, and Rudy scored over 5 more points per game than him. They have basically the same 3pt numbers (attempts and makes) and get to the line the same amount of times, but Gay is an excellent FT shooter and Iggy is terrible (57.4%), so Iggy can't be counted on to hit FT's in late game situations. If Iggy was taking the same amount of FGA as Gay I'm sure his TS% would start to plummet as he is another player that is only above average under the basket and has trouble creating for himself.
    This whole post is bang on.

    I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

    Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    This whole post is bang on.

    I'm so sick of people going on and on about efficiency without looking at context. Shot-creators are going to be less efficient than spot up shooters/guys who take only high % shots and finish plays. This is why I lol hard when people suggest trading DeRozan or Gay for guys like Redick or Jared Dudley. They're efficient cause all they do is take uncontested, high percentage shots. You ask one of those guys or Iguodala to take the ball and go create points in isolations and you'd see their TS%s plummet to the low 40s.

    Basketball isn't baseball. Some of these stat-geeks need to get that through their skulls.
    Preach brother!!! Also, the funny thing about stat-geeks is that often when confronted with naked stats that don't support their opinion, they then suddenly rise up with "context".

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  17. #35
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I don't see Gay turning down a 4yr/14M extension. Then you're only paying 23M for him and DeMar which is more than ok for one of the league's best wing tandems. If Gay isn't playing at a high level then you just let him walk or orchestrate a S&T.

    We'd have around 30M to play with in 2015 FA with DeMar, Gay, Val, Ross, Acy, Novak on the roster. With guys like Love, Rondo and Aldridge available that's a great position to be in.

    I also expect tons of teams to blow their loads in 2014 after striking out on LBJ/Melo and the other stars. We might be positioned to secure 2 max level players.
    Only paying him and Derozan $23 million?

    That's the problem with this team. Players who are making the most money don't really affect winning all that much.

    One of the best wing tandems in the league? Based on what?

    Spending money on big name FA's to come to Toronto?

    When has that ever happened? How do you get players like Aldridge or Love to come here when this team is a lottery team or an 8th seed in a weak conference?

  18. #36
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    What is the point of keeping a roster together that is no where near close to a contender but is capped out?

    I think it's actually better to get a top 4 pick who might turn out to be a fringe all-star, but under a controlled salary than actually paying a player who is not even a fringe all-star at this point of his career (Hiya Rudy) like a superstar.

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    Quote sleepz wrote: View Post
    Only paying him and Derozan $23 million?

    Yes only, as in a bit more than 1/3 of the projected cap.

    That's the problem with this team. Players who are making the most money don't really affect winning all that much.

    Yup DeMar and Gay are losers *rolls eyes*.

    One of the best wing tandems in the league? Based on what?

    The only teams with better ones are Indiana (if Granger is healthy), Miami, New York and Houston. So yes it's one of the better wing tandems in the league. And of those 5 it's the 2nd youngest.

    Spending money on big name FA's to come to Toronto?

    When has that ever happened? How do you get players like Aldridge or Love to come here when this team is a lottery team or an 8th seed in a weak conference?

    This is precisely what Leiweke said he's looking to change. That's why we shouldn't be tanking and should be looking to place as highly in the playoffs as possible. There's no reason why we can't be the 6 seed next year. And maybe even 4th the next year after the Nets get older and NY possibly loses Melo. An all-star might see that as a low pressure situation but also with the possibility to progress deep into the playoffs and make max dollars while being the star of the team.

    This could be greatly helped by Gay, DD (least likely too many good guards) or Val making the ASG, which will only happen if we're WINNING.
    Bold.

  20. #38
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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    Spot on here. What gets lost if you only look at stats is what kind of shots these guys are taking and making. Of the three you mentioned, only Gay is effective at creating his own shot, which people arguing against Gay always seem to forget. His ability to create his own shot is a rare skill in the NBA.
    Great context and comments on how to better use the stats. Let me ask, how do you know that Gay is creating his shots (and the others don't)? I don't watch enough of Iggy or Smith to comment but are you using a stat or from how they play in game.
    Last edited by rap; Thu Jul 25th, 2013 at 06:22 PM.

  21. #39
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    A bit of an aside: ESPN Insider has their current projections of the Eastern Conference placing Toronto at 11th:

    1. Miami
    2. Brooklyn
    3. Chicago
    4. Indiana
    5. New York
    6. Atlanta
    7. Washington
    8. Cleveland
    9. Milwaukee
    10. Detroit
    11. Toronto
    12. Orlando
    13. Boston
    14. Charlotte
    15. Philly

    Their writeup basically sums up as: "If Jonas turns into a monster, the Raptors can make a playoff push. If he doesn't, a tank is in order."

  22. #40
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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    Great context and comments on how to better use the stats. Let me ask, how do you know that Gay is creating his shots (and the others don't)? I don't watch enough of Iggy or Smith to comment but are you using a stat or from how they play in game.
    It's from watching them play. I love using stats, but I think a lot of guys only look at stats and actually watch very little basketball.

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