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Thread: Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Default Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

    I hope this does NOT get merged with the rebuild or re-tool thread since this is not a PROs and CONs post on Tanking vs not-tanking.

    I legitimately would like to know the timeline, given the best case scenario, if the Raptors decide to go to tank mode, or play out this current roster and tweak it as they go along in the hopes of building a contender. Is there realistically a possibility to be contenders for both paths and, how long will each path take compared to the other.

    Ive read so many discussions on why they should tank, why they shouldnt, why should tweaking the roster and keep re-tweaking year after year will work better and why they shouldnt but i have not read an actual, set of realistic timelines for each path.

    I ask because there seems to be no "model" when it comes to using tanking to building a contender. Cavs, Spurs, OKC all seem to have "lucked out" with their picks.

    And re-tweaking, it always seems to be the teams with the most money and biggest markets which are able to buy the best players.

    Where does this put the Raptors?

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    Raptors Republic Starter mike, prague's Avatar
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    I'd say by Dec. 31 It should be decided so its not too late to be successful in failing miserably.

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

    I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

    1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

    2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

    3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason

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    Raptors Republic Rookie Lefty's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I think a decision will be obvious by the trade deadline, if not sooner, based on the Raptors' performance in the first half (and their position in the standings).

    I actually see 3 legitimate options at this point (not discussing pros/cons or personal preference):

    1) tank this season (starting now or by trade deadline), with eyes on the 2014 draft & offseason --> I expect at least 2-3 years of rebuilding (likely with JV as only 'untouchable'), before being competitive for playoffs

    2) status quo this season, with success --> make playoffs in 2013-2014 and build around the current core (ie: Valanciunas, Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Johnson, plus whoever else steps up), with only minor tweaking (likely a luxury tax team by 2014-15) available to build on their successful season

    3) status quo this season, without success --> if they go for the playoffs this season and fail to make it, or make it but decide that 1st round fodder is their ceiling, they can still turnaround and use Lowry (S&T), Gay (expiring contract) and whoever else (likely all but JV) as trade bait next offseason; this could result in complete rebuild or retooling, so ultimate timeline is unknown until moves are made next offseason
    I can see the first two coming. The third, I think is least likely b/c if Ujiri doen't think the team is firmly in playoff contention by the deadline, my guess is he blows it up.

    Best Case scenario not-tanking: Raptors make the playoffs, maybe even as high as a 6th seed or so, push the series to 6 or 7 games, then Ujiri maneuvers in the offseason and gets a solid, if not star PF, and deepens the bench to get us on the brink of contending. Gay's shot making dramatically improves, possibly due to his eye surgery/ off season to establish himself as a great #1 option. Derozan shows that he can decently if not effectively hit the 3 ball, good second option. Lowry reverts more to his aggresive, 2012/ early 2013 form, and displays a solid playomaking ability. JV continues to develop. Ross too. Oh, and Buykes wins MVP.
    Record: 45-37
    Best Case scenario tanking: Ujiri blows it up sometime before or at deadline, trades Gay, Lowry, and maybe others for young assets/ draft picks. Maybe even a couple 2014 first rounders. Raptors luck out in the lottery and nab Wiggins, along with another one or two potential stars with the picks they acquired. Raptors sign serviceable vets or maybe even a star PF. Go into 2015 season with a core of JV, Wiggins, maybe Derozan, unkonwn star prospect, and a free agent landing. Miss the playoffs in 2015, and pull off an OKC in 2016.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    trade deadline, basically

    trade rudy or not to trade rudy. same with lowry.
    @jerboat

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default From downtown, count it!

    JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.
    Potential All Star?
    "You never heard of DeMar just google him, the defense don't know what to do wit him"

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.
    I personally can't wait to see him get touches on this team, constructed as it is of efficient shooters who don't use a lot of touches.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    I personally can't wait to see him get touches on this team, constructed as it is of efficient shooters who don't use a lot of touches.
    Nice! This made me laugh.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    JV's breakout is going to sting the tankers badly.
    It also might benefit them.

    If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It also might benefit them.

    If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.
    Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.

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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.
    Masai has said his gameplan is for the 2015/2016 season. That doesn't mean he starts rebuilding then; that means he intends to go into win-now mode at that time.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Masai has said his gameplan is for the 2015/2016 season. That doesn't mean he starts rebuilding then; that means he intends to go into win-now mode at that time.
    I mean to say, that the going plan is to start committing to long term contract at that time. Until then, we are in a sort of hiatus where we might win or we might tank.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.
    Good lord, I hope Ujiri wasn't brought in to spend two full seasons (and two full off-seasons more importantly) waiting to start a rebuild. If his plan is to simply acquire assets until then, why doesn't he move players from the Gay/Lowry/DD/Amir group in the next month and start the process now? Playing out the string for two years with a core that you don't plan on building with beyond that is practically the definition of spinning your tires.

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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    Good lord, I hope Ujiri wasn't brought in to spend two full seasons (and two full off-seasons more importantly) waiting to start a rebuild. If his plan is to simply acquire assets until then, why doesn't he move players from the Gay/Lowry/DD/Amir group in the next month and start the process now? Playing out the string for two years with a core that you don't plan on building with beyond that is practically the definition of spinning your tires.
    I probabably didn't write that well. My theory is Masai big moves start happening 2016. He will likely still trade (either small tweak upgrades or major teardown along the way) but the UFA contracts he signs and players he trades for will be done in such away as to ensure he has good flexibility in 2016 when the bulk of the contracts expire

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It also might benefit them.

    If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.
    Matt, that was one short hiatus.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It also might benefit them.

    If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?

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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    Yes, definitely.

    I don't disagree with people who think we presently have a good number of young, talented players. Maybe some of them are a bit (or a lot) overpaid, but we have a lot of young talent with upside still. Our problem is not a lack of talent; it is that we don't really have players who complement one another.

    We should get value for some of them, good value: picks, other young players, expirings. And the rest, we keep and develop. We're not comparable to Cleveland or OKC at the start of their rebuilds, because those teams literally had next to nothing when they began, whereas we have quite a bit - mostly because we've been sort-of-sucking for a good long time and we've managed to acquire a number of quality pieces. If Masai can turn Rudy or Kyle or the like into 2014 picks + assets, we can easily start making a playoff run as soon as 2014/15.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    Assuming they avoid a Utah and don't let Lowry and Gay leave for nothing, then yes, I think they would have a great chance to return to the playoffs by 2016 with a higher ceiling than first round fodder to boot.

    The Raptors already have the hardest position in the league to fill and have him locked up for 7-8 years BEFORE tearing it all down - that of course being JV. Most teams start a rebuild hoping to acquire a player like JV through the draft and the Raptors are fortunate enough to already have him. The second hardest position to fill - PG - appears to be attractive in 2014 with Smart, Exum, Micic, and Harrison (of course, a lot can and will change).

    The difference in this draft and next years is the front end. In the 2013 draft the knock was no one wanted to be at the top because there was no near certain all-star talent, however, the draft was very deep. From what I understand about 2014 - and a WHOLE lot can change in the next 11 months - the draft is very top heavy with talent but lacking there after. 2013 was a great draft for treadmill and playoff teams and sucked for high lottery. 2014 appears to be great for high lottery and a wash for playoff teams. We'll see soon enough.

    The strength of the Raptors GM and assistant GM is scouting. Whether they blow up the team or not, building through the draft appears to be in their best interests. Hopefully the days of peddling picks is over and acquiring/hoarding has begun.... and with Bobby Webster on board the nuances of the CBA will take care of itself.
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    That's your problem, those players aren't in every draft, and even if they were there's no guarantee of you getting them.

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