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Thread: Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

  1. #41
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    It depends on your goal. Is the teams goal is maximize long term success of the franchise. Or is the team's goal to maximize the 2014 draft pick spot or something else?

    That is, a top 5 lotto pick in 2014 is not guaranteed better option then a top 10 pick in 2014 + various picks acquired from trading Gay/Lowry/DD/AJ away. A 2014 tank is highly dependent on that one player turning out to be a elite. The later option sets up the team with plenty of good depth options some who will bust and some who will outperform as starters.
    You were talking about 'bottoming out' the following season, so my assumption was that you believed a complete rebuild was in the team's best interest, with the long-term in mind. Once that decision is made, why waste an entire season kinda rebuilding and kinda competing? By doing that you're not maximizing the team's gains from the 2014 draft, which should be the first step in the rebuilding process (I never meant to suggest that the 2014 draft was the be-all-and-end-all of a rebuilding process).

    If you know a rebuild is the team's best bet for sustainable, long-term success, why waste another season by not fully committing to the ultimate course of action? Why not improve your pick (and possibly gain additional picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, as the first step in your rebuilding process? A top-5 in any draft is almost always going to land a better player than 5-10, which is almost always better than a pick outside the top-10, and so on, plus the pick (or player taken with the pick) will have more trade value the higher it is in the draft. I fail to see the logic behind settling for a lesser pick (and possibly less picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, especially when you've already determined that a rebuild is the best option.
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 12:37 PM.

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  3. #42
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    You were talking about 'bottoming out' the following season, so my assumption was that you believed a complete rebuild was in the team's best interest, with the long-term in mind. Once that decision is made, why waste an entire season kinda rebuilding and kinda competing? By doing that you're not maximizing the team's gains from the 2014 draft, which should be the first step in the rebuilding process (I never meant to suggest that the 2014 draft was the be-all-and-end-all of a rebuilding process).

    If you know a rebuild is the team's best bet for sustainable, long-term success, why waste another season by not fully committing to the ultimate course of action? Why not improve your pick (and possibly gain additional picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, as the first step in your rebuilding process? A top-5 in any draft is almost always going to land a better player than 5-10, which is almost better than a pick outside the top-10, and so on, plus the pick (or player taken with the pick) will have more trade value the higher it is in the draft. I fail to see the logic behind settling for a lesser pick (and possibly less picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, especially when you've already determined that a rebuild is the best option.
    If the team can get picks for DD/RG/KL etc in 2014 then what you say makes sense. However, from what I gathered this team is not "set up to tank" and good value trades are not available. What makes more sense then giving away players for Stuckey/Villa returns is to tweak the roster add good pieces on value contracts and trade opportunistically to maximize the long term assets of the organization.

    That said, the situation in league is too fluid as the raptors may have an injury that forces a certain direction or may get off to a great start which may lead to another path. Or another team later in the season is contending for a playoff spot and wants to upgrade a position where now they want to stand pat and so will offer a better return. These trades need two partners (unless we are dumping talent for nothing). I'm not sure Masai will ever fully tank, as he may try to improve the team by trading his way out of the mess, but if he does tank I'm seeing the 2015/2016 season being the bottoming point.

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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    If the team can get picks for DD/RG/KL etc in 2014 then what you say makes sense. However, from what I gathered this team is not "set up to tank" and good value trades are not available. What makes more sense then giving away players for Stuckey/Villa returns is to tweak the roster add good pieces on value contracts and trade opportunistically to maximize the long term assets of the organization.

    That said, the situation in league is too fluid as the raptors may have an injury that forces a certain direction or may get off to a great start which may lead to another path. Or another team later in the season is contending for a playoff spot and wants to upgrade a position where now they want to stand pat and so will offer a better return. These trades need two partners (unless we are dumping talent for nothing). I'm not sure Masai will ever fully tank, as he may try to improve the team by trading his way out of the mess, but if he does tank I'm seeing the 2015/2016 season being the bottoming point.
    I only started commenting on your proposed strategy of rebuilding over two season (ie: trade some talent this season, some talent next season), bottoming out in either 2015 or 2016, rather than fully starting the rebuild this season (see post #39). Retooling to improve the team to compete for playoffs today, while also keeping the future in mind, is a completely different strategy and a whole other discussion.

    The only point I was trying to make is that if you're going to start trading away talent this season (as opposed to trading talent for different, but equal talent) - aka tank/rebuild (as opposed to retool) - then I would much rather see MU fully commit to that strategy immediately, rather than half commit to it this season and have it linger on for another season only half-heartedly committed to. I want MU to pick a strategy (retool to compete now OR tank/rebuild now) and go 'all in' immediately (by this season's trade deadline).
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 12:39 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    This is what i was afraid would happen. Now this thread has become a tank vs do not tank thread!!!

    Common people!!! hehehe

    OK can we put it this way, if you are PRO-tanking, can you tell me what would be the timeline if the Raps decided to tank mid-season? Year by year, what will you hope to accomplish during this rebuilding mode, and where will that put the Raps.

    Something like this:

    2013 Tank, acquire assets through trades, get high draft pick
    2014 franchise player acquired, losing season acquire another high draft pick, trade for role players? vets?
    2015 playoffs? or another high draft pick? re-sign JV to max
    2016 ????

    Im assuming this would be the best case scenario. And by that i mean, JV doesnt ask to be traded or says he will not be signing an extension. or that they end up getting a bust in the draft.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote rap wrote: View Post

    Using this analogy, just because you start the race today doesn't mean you will finish well. If you stretch, hydrate at the start, wait for more comfortable shoes and take time to learn the course (where the hills are, where the aid stations are) you might do better. In the analogy, trading away talent over two years for good returns maybe better in the long run then just dumping players for next to nothing now. Sure you have a 1/2 mile head start, but if you haven't prepared well enough you might cramp or get a blister or get lost on your wayetc
    Sure, if you show up to the race without your shoes on, its worth the wait to put them on.

    I'm just using that analogy assuming all else is equal (everyone showed up with shoes on and appropriately tied ofcourse ).

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    For the anti-tankers:

    2013 extend Gay. extend Lowry. playoffs?
    2014 enough cap space to sign a superstar? playoffs?
    2015 extend amir? let fields walk for cap space? playoffs?

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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    This is what i was afraid would happen. Now this thread has become a tank vs do not tank thread!!!
    Assuming this is at least partially directed at me...

    I actually think the ongoing discussion between rap and myself is about the timelines associated with a particular rebuilding strategy (both for starting the rebuild and then how long such a rebuild would take to reach the competitive stage), which is what your OP asked about. We're not arguing about one strategy or another being a legit option (or better than another), but rather the timelines for implementing a strategy.

  9. #48
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I only started commenting on your proposed strategy of rebuilding over two season (ie: trade some talent this season, some talent next season), bottoming out in either 2015 or 2016, rather than fully starting the rebuild this season (see post #39). Retooling to improve the team to compete for playoffs today, while also keeping the future in mind, is a completely different strategy and a whole other discussion.

    The only point I was trying to make is that if you're going to start trading away talent this season (as opposed to trading talent for different, but equal talent) - aka tank/rebuild (as opposed to retool) - then I would much rather see MU fully commit to that strategy immediately, rather than half commit to it this season and have it linger on for another season only half-heartedly committed to. I want MU to pick a strategy (retool to compete now OR tank/rebuild now) and go 'all in' immediately (by this season's trade deadline).
    The option that Masai has available to him is to trade away talent for next to nothing NOW. Or to wait patiently and try to extract better value in a trade. What you see as indecision in terms of a choosing a strategy, I see him taking his time to weight the pros and cons of tanking vs rebuilding on the fly given the constraints of salary matching in trades, trading partners, the cap ceiling and cap flexibility.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I only started commenting on your proposed strategy of rebuilding over two season (ie: trade some talent this season, some talent next season), bottoming out in either 2015 or 2016, rather than fully starting the rebuild this season (see post #39). Retooling to improve the team to compete for playoffs today, while also keeping the future in mind, is a completely different strategy and a whole other discussion.

    The only point I was trying to make is that if you're going to start trading away talent this season (as opposed to trading talent for different, but equal talent) - aka tank/rebuild (as opposed to retool) - then I would much rather see MU fully commit to that strategy immediately, rather than half commit to it this season and have it linger on for another season only half-heartedly committed to. I want MU to pick a strategy (retool to compete now OR tank/rebuild now) and go 'all in' immediately (by this season's trade deadline).
    has anybody looked at the class of 2015? maybe Masai sees some potential in that draft that is why he's gambling on seeing what this current roster can do first rather than break it up.

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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    2013 Tank, acquire assets through trades, get high draft pick
    2014 franchise player acquired, losing season acquire another high draft pick, trade for role players? vets?
    2015 playoffs? or another high draft pick? re-sign JV to max
    2016 ????

    Im assuming this would be the best case scenario. And by that i mean, JV doesnt ask to be traded or says he will not be signing an extension. or that they end up getting a bust in the draft.
    I think a timeline is fine goal to have but think of this like getting married. I may want to marry a supermodel, like I want to find a partner to trade all my talent and give me a great draft pick so I can tank but it takes two to tango. Of course, I can order a mail order bride (which is comparable to say dumping my talent for nothing) but what I get in return maybe a bust.

    That is, even if Masai wants to tank he needs to find someone else willing to take his players for good draft picks. This is the stumbling point as I see for the tankers.

    The choice we have is to dump players for nothing but bad contracts and go for the tank OR to wait it out for something better. And by waiting it out - you are open to tank at some point in the season or upgrade/rebuild the team on the fly depending on what supermodel opportunity fate presents you.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    To be blunt, assuming nothing crazy takes place, I will be in full question Masai mode if he chooses to tank a few years down the road (or even next year) rather than right now.

    If he's going to tank, it needs to be done sooner rather than later - ie. this offseason or very early this season. If he is going to go 'win now' mode, it can be done later rather than sooner, but closer to the trade deadline (or at the very least next offseason). If he is going 'this team as is, is good enough to compete' mode, well it damn well better be.

    To me anything else is just wasting time and opportunities. Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.
    Does you, or anyone else, think that Masai is actually gonna ride BC's lineup in a "win now" or "this team is good enough to compete" mode? Not gonna happen. Leiweke didn't like the lineup, and I'm sure there was more to do with it than just the presence of Bargs. Masai will begin tearing things apart by the deadline. You'll get what you want I think. The question is will he look to make moves that allows the team to win while he builds the lineup, or will he trade for expirring contracts and picks and go into tank mode for the next two seasons?

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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    The option that Masai has available to him is to trade away talent for next to nothing NOW. Or to wait patiently and try to extract better value in a trade. What you see as indecision in terms of a choosing a strategy, I see him taking his time to weight the pros and cons of tanking vs rebuilding on the fly given the constraints of salary matching in trades, trading partners, the cap ceiling and cap flexibility.
    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    has anybody looked at the class of 2015? maybe Masai sees some potential in that draft that is why he's gambling on seeing what this current roster can do first rather than break it up.
    I never questioned the 'wait and see' approach, to determine whether to be competitive next season or start the rebuild next season.

    I specifically replied to rap's proposed strategy that already determined that tanking/rebuilding was the team's best choice, but called for some "talent" to be traded away this season and the rest of the team's "talent" to be traded away next season, having the team "bottom out in 2015 or 2016" - see post #39.

    Rap had already determined at that point that tank/rebuild was the direction for the Raptors to go, so I questioned the logic behind only half committing to that strategy this season and letting it drag on over two seasons of semi-compete/semi-rebuild, rather than fully committing to the decided strategy upon making the decision. If the decision has been made (no longer in 'wait and see' mode), why wait an extra season-and-a-half to fully implement the strategy you've already decided on???

    I guess for me, the 'wait and see' approach should be limited to the first half of the 2013-2014 season, not 2 full seasons. That's the bottom line for me. I'm fine with the approach MU seems to be taking, which is to use the first half of next season for evaluation, before determining the course of action; I just hope his action is swift and complete, once he sets his course.

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  16. #53
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    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    I think a timeline is fine goal to have but think of this like getting married. I may want to marry a supermodel, like I want to find a partner to trade all my talent and give me a great draft pick so I can tank but it takes two to tango. Of course, I can order a mail order bride (which is comparable to say dumping my talent for nothing) but what I get in return maybe a bust.

    That is, even if Masai wants to tank he needs to find someone else willing to take his players for good draft picks. This is the stumbling point as I see for the tankers.

    The choice we have is to dump players for nothing but bad contracts and go for the tank OR to wait it out for something better. And by waiting it out - you are open to tank at some point in the season or upgrade/rebuild the team on the fly depending on what supermodel opportunity fate presents you.
    I think the error in reasoning that you're making here is to assume that MU won't begin investigating the various options for roster moves, until he decides what direction he intends to take the team.

    I would be willing to bet that between now and the 2013-2014 trade deadline, MU will have evaluated the trade value and lined up multiple potential trades for every player, as part of his roster evaluation. The 'wait and see' approach includes the on-court evaluation of player preformance AND the off-court evaluation of possible roster moves (ie: trades).

    Regardless of the direction MU decides to go - compete for playoffs in 2013-2014 OR tank/rebuild ahead of 2014 draft/offseason - I would expect he has several moves ready to be executed immediately (ie: his dance partners are queued up and ready to tango, for either strategy).
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 01:15 PM.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    Does you, or anyone else, think that Masai is actually gonna ride BC's lineup in a "win now" or "this team is good enough to compete" mode? Not gonna happen. Leiweke didn't like the lineup, and I'm sure there was more to do with it than just the presence of Bargs. Masai will begin tearing things apart by the deadline. You'll get what you want I think. The question is will he look to make moves that allows the team to win while he builds the lineup, or will he trade for expirring contracts and picks and go into tank mode for the next two seasons?
    I don't expect him to, but I'm also not gonna assume he either CAN or WILL change it until I see it.

    If he is truelly a big believer in basketball karma (a complete joke of a statement if you ask me but none the less....), and Gay is sitting at no trade that does bring back "bad karma", and its not impossible to believe Demar could be to, suddenly exactly what is there for Masai to do?

    I don't put it past him to 'not do anything of significance' because he doesn't want to get nothing for something, or can't what he wants/needs, and in the process spends the next year or two doing little. It may not out of desire but....

    talk is just that, talk. Doesn't matter if its out of Colangelo's mouth or Masai's.

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    Something you guys need to consider is: how is it possible to trade away all our assets this season to begin the tank? Do you really think it's possible to dump RG, KL, AJ, and, at the very least DD. I don't see it happening, and furthermore, if you are blatantly dumping all your talent, you are likely to get very little in return. GM's will know you are trying to get rid of guys and will purposely low ball, unless of course, we have a highly sought after player that generates a bidding war. Do we have that player? Personally, I don't think so. I think only a very few specific teams will be looking at either one of those guys. Also, RG's and KL's value will depend heavily on their performances this upcoming season. If they perform well, more teams might be interested, if not...well the return may be limited.

    Personally, I think stripping down the roster will take a couple of seasons anyways, especially if you are trying to maximize return like Rap has mentioned. Plus, a guy like Fields won't be movable until he is expiring. I really don't see this team being bad enough to compete for Wiggins, and no team in the sweepstakes will be interested in trading that opportunity for anything we have. So, we are probably looking at mid round draft picks next draft (2014), tank in 2014/15 with a high draft pick in 2015, and if there is anything left to trade maybe pick up a couple of pieces that could have have us competing for a playoff spot in 2015/16, or the season after.

    Then there's the combo route, trading our talent to get back talent and picks. But is this possible? Can we get back any good players that may fit this team's future via trade. If so, who? Can we get picks as well going this route? Will we be able to have a good enough roster that entices JV to sign a long term extension? Ultimately, the plan should be executed in such a way that we are set up to compete when JV extends.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    Wow, I was excited about this season, and the prospect that this team could be decent and continue to go forward, but a few threads posted here recently got me to thinking that we are going to be going through some roster turnover (again sigh) in the next couple of seasons.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Regardless of the direction MU decides to go - compete for playoffs in 2013-2014 OR tank/rebuild ahead of 2014 draft/offseason - I would expect he has several moves ready to be executed immediately (ie: his dance partners are queued up and ready to tango, for either strategy).
    Highly unlikely that any of these move present anything of true value at this point, unfortunately. That's why it will take longer than just a few years... in reply to the thread starter. Everybody (reasonable) here would love to see Ujiri gets unprotected 1st rounders from teams like Charlotte, Orlando, 76rs, Utah in 2014 for Gay/Lowry/DD right now. It's just not going to happen. Again... unfortunately!

    People referencing hamsters need to understand that patience is a virtue. Raps will not become a contender in one year. 4 years at best, if everything works in our favor.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    I never questioned the 'wait and see' approach, to determine whether to be competitive next season or start the rebuild next season.
    I think there is a misconception with regards to the "wait and see" approach. The "see" part refers to a favorable trade, in which we get something of true value back for any of Gay/Lowry/DD. This approach is not to wait and see if this team is competitive. It is not! The waiting part is necessary... and there is pretty much nothing Ujiri can do at this point. Hopefully, this coming trade deadline... maybe the next off season.

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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    has anybody looked at the class of 2015?
    Not counting the elite centers (since we have JV already): Rajon Rondo, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jeff Green, Wesley Matthews, Jeremy Lin, Danny Green, Goran Dragic. Those are probably your biggest names that year.

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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    OK can we put it this way, if you are PRO-tanking, can you tell me what would be the timeline if the Raps decided to tank mid-season? Year by year, what will you hope to accomplish during this rebuilding mode, and where will that put the Raps.

    Something like this:

    2013 Tank, acquire assets through trades, get high draft pick
    2014 franchise player acquired, losing season acquire another high draft pick, trade for role players? vets?
    2015 playoffs? or another high draft pick? re-sign JV to max
    2016 ????
    2013-2014: Trade 1-4 of Gay/Lowry/DeMar/Ross for picks; aim to get back young players, expirings and picks, obviously. Use the season to develop the JV-centric offense Casey has talked about and further hone the Raptors "keepers" on D. Note that new pickups like Hansbrough are tradeable if they end up becoming more valuable as a result of them playing for us. End result should be a young team with a lot of experience, a reasonable amount of cap space and picks. Preferably we have at least two first-round picks in the 2014 draft: our own (should end up being top ten) and one more (given what 2014 first-round picks are available to trade, probably somewhere in the 13-21 range).

    2014/15: Tank ends: now is time for true development and moving forward. We can manage to get away with one season's worth of tank because we already had about half-a-tank from 2010-2012 when we drafted JV and Ross. Our core (JV, Amir and whoever we kept) should be attractive to mid-level roleplayers if not stars and while everybody else is fighting over Melo and LeBron and the rest of the 2014 superstar contingent, we should aggressively pursue lower-end guys who can give us quality minutes. This is when we make the sort of jump Washington and Cleveland are trying to make this year: into the first stage of playoffs contention, a respectable first-round exit we can build upon.

    2015/2016: This is when we go after a star-level player to complement JV (who hopefully will be a star himself by this point) and our 2014 first-rounders (one of whom will hopefully be ready to take the next step). Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rajon Rondo are the obvious candidates right now: 2015 looks to be a good year for both point guards and power forwards, so although we can't make a prediction as to what our game plan should be for this year yet it gives you an idea of what holes should be left to fill until that time. And now we should be a reasonably serious playoff contender.

    2016/2017: We have New York's first-rounder and they may well be terrible. Also we go after Kevin Durant maybe. Who knows? It's too far out to call at this point.

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