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Thread: Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

  1. #61
    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Not counting the elite centers (since we have JV already): Rajon Rondo, Kevin Love, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jeff Green, Wesley Matthews, Jeremy Lin, Danny Green, Goran Dragic. Those are probably your biggest names that year.
    Oh sorry, i meant draft class. If Masai's plan is to ride out the roster this season and if doesnt work out then he might tank for the 2015 draft. So im wondering if there's any potential franchise players in that draft that he might have his eyes on.

    But since you metioned the FAs in 2015, ill play along, hehehe.
    If Masai does ride this roster and becomes a success, cant we make a play for Love or Millsap for Amir, DD and fillers?

  2. #62
    Raptors Republic Rookie vino's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    2013-2014: Trade 1-4 of Gay/Lowry/DeMar/Ross for picks; aim to get back young players, expirings and picks, obviously. Use the season to develop the JV-centric offense Casey has talked about and further hone the Raptors "keepers" on D. Note that new pickups like Hansbrough are tradeable if they end up becoming more valuable as a result of them playing for us. End result should be a young team with a lot of experience, a reasonable amount of cap space and picks. Preferably we have at least two first-round picks in the 2014 draft: our own (should end up being top ten) and one more (given what 2014 first-round picks are available to trade, probably somewhere in the 13-21 range).

    2014/15: Tank ends: now is time for true development and moving forward. We can manage to get away with one season's worth of tank because we already had about half-a-tank from 2010-2012 when we drafted JV and Ross. Our core (JV, Amir and whoever we kept) should be attractive to mid-level roleplayers if not stars and while everybody else is fighting over Melo and LeBron and the rest of the 2014 superstar contingent, we should aggressively pursue lower-end guys who can give us quality minutes. This is when we make the sort of jump Washington and Cleveland are trying to make this year: into the first stage of playoffs contention, a respectable first-round exit we can build upon.

    2015/2016: This is when we go after a star-level player to complement JV (who hopefully will be a star himself by this point) and our 2014 first-rounders (one of whom will hopefully be ready to take the next step). Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rajon Rondo are the obvious candidates right now: 2015 looks to be a good year for both point guards and power forwards, so although we can't make a prediction as to what our game plan should be for this year yet it gives you an idea of what holes should be left to fill until that time. And now we should be a reasonably serious playoff contender.

    2016/2017: We have New York's first-rounder and they may well be terrible. Also we go after Kevin Durant maybe. Who knows? It's too far out to call at this point.
    This is the ideal case. Highly unlikely in my mind. I is unlikely Ujiri is able to favorably trade all our current assets by January. I do not think the "Tank Ends" activity is after 2014/2015; it will take at least one year longer. Probably two years beyond your current estimate. Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge or Rondo won't sign here with only JV and two mid lottery, sophomores...
    Wishful thinking though; I applaud the optimism!

  3. #63
    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    It also might benefit them.

    If the supporting cast becomes painfully obvious to be overpaid relative to production the Raptors would have a little over 2 seasons to get talent around him before an extension kicks in. That would give the Raptors 3 drafts and 2 off seasons to prepare for 2016 free agency. I read somewhere today (probably HoopsHype.com) that an unidentified GM said teams prepare for free agency 3 years in advance.
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    To be blunt, assuming nothing crazy takes place, I will be in full question Masai mode if he chooses to tank a few years down the road (or even next year) rather than right now.

    If he's going to tank, it needs to be done sooner rather than later - ie. this offseason or very early this season. If he is going to go 'win now' mode, it can be done later rather than sooner, but closer to the trade deadline (or at the very least next offseason). If he is going 'this team as is, is good enough to compete' mode, well it damn well better be.

    To me anything else is just wasting time and opportunities. Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.
    Well, the bolded part has been the m.o. here for years. Since I am not a fan of this roster I would have been fine with a complete teardown job and letting Masai build his team the way he wanted. And, like you, if they are sticking with this roster and the theory it is too good to blow up, well, then the roster better produce. And I don't mean 40-41 and a four game sweep.

    Cleaning up the mess the organization was left in is going to take long enough, I don't want to start moving the day of reckoning further down the road.

  5. #65
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    Yes, definitely.

    I don't disagree with people who think we presently have a good number of young, talented players. Maybe some of them are a bit (or a lot) overpaid, but we have a lot of young talent with upside still. Our problem is not a lack of talent; it is that we don't really have players who complement one another.

    We should get value for some of them, good value: picks, other young players, expirings. And the rest, we keep and develop. We're not comparable to Cleveland or OKC at the start of their rebuilds, because those teams literally had next to nothing when they began, whereas we have quite a bit - mostly because we've been sort-of-sucking for a good long time and we've managed to acquire a number of quality pieces. If Masai can turn Rudy or Kyle or the like into 2014 picks + assets, we can easily start making a playoff run as soon as 2014/15.

  6. #66
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    Assuming they avoid a Utah and don't let Lowry and Gay leave for nothing, then yes, I think they would have a great chance to return to the playoffs by 2016 with a higher ceiling than first round fodder to boot.

    The Raptors already have the hardest position in the league to fill and have him locked up for 7-8 years BEFORE tearing it all down - that of course being JV. Most teams start a rebuild hoping to acquire a player like JV through the draft and the Raptors are fortunate enough to already have him. The second hardest position to fill - PG - appears to be attractive in 2014 with Smart, Exum, Micic, and Harrison (of course, a lot can and will change).

    The difference in this draft and next years is the front end. In the 2013 draft the knock was no one wanted to be at the top because there was no near certain all-star talent, however, the draft was very deep. From what I understand about 2014 - and a WHOLE lot can change in the next 11 months - the draft is very top heavy with talent but lacking there after. 2013 was a great draft for treadmill and playoff teams and sucked for high lottery. 2014 appears to be great for high lottery and a wash for playoff teams. We'll see soon enough.

    The strength of the Raptors GM and assistant GM is scouting. Whether they blow up the team or not, building through the draft appears to be in their best interests. Hopefully the days of peddling picks is over and acquiring/hoarding has begun.... and with Bobby Webster on board the nuances of the CBA will take care of itself.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  7. #67
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    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post

    Then there's the combo route, trading our talent to get back talent and picks. But is this possible? Can we get back any good players that may fit this team's future via trade. If so, who? Can we get picks as well going this route? Will we be able to have a good enough roster that entices JV to sign a long term extension? Ultimately, the plan should be executed in such a way that we are set up to compete when JV extends.
    I agree with what you wrote in that the team is too good to tank and it doesn't make sense to throw away talent for nothing.
    That is, a mid 2014 pick + 1st picks in later years from waiting for patient trades is likely better then a top 10 or lottery draft pick this year after giving away Lowry and Gay..

    As for how to acquire talent in a rebuild. For example, Bledsoe was acquired for veteran SF + 2nd round pick. These players that Masai has added DJ, Hansborough, Novak etc are all good pieces on good contracts that can be trade bait along with a pick. The problem is there is likely no tanking trade partners today who want to give us 1st pick and nor are there teams wanting to trade prospects to fill another role. However, come the trade deadline Masai will get more calls.

  8. #68
    Raptors Republic Rookie Lefty's Avatar
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    remember that even if the knicks suck.. denver's got the right to swap.
    2015 draft should probably have several stars opt out of the 2014 draft to get drafted higher.
    If Bargnani netted us a bounty, I have no worries that if he chooses to tank, Ujiri will get those assets.

  9. #69
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    Quote TheGloveinRapsUniform wrote: View Post
    The Cavs and OKC, who are the poster teams when it comes to draft rebuilding, have made the playoffs 3 seasons into the rebuild. They did it with james and durant, and now with kyrie the cavs are projected to make the playoffs this season and im pretty sure they will.

    If the Raps start to rebuild using the draft before next season, do they have a chance of making the playoffs come 2016?
    That's your problem, those players aren't in every draft, and even if they were there's no guarantee of you getting them.

  10. #70
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Are we being given some insights in to a timeline?

    2015-16 being the target?


    Now, a week from the start of training camp, Ujiri’s done stirring. He’s going to watch the drink settle.

    “Rather than make some crazy decisions, we want to see what we have,” Ujiri says. “We’re not signing players on long term deals now. We’re going to . . . see how we start off the season and go from there. I know it sounds very simple, but I think right now simple is best for us.”

    There is no talk of a tank in order to take a long shot at Andrew Wiggins, or as Ujiri elliptically refers to him, “the kid from Kansas.” There are no playoff promises.
    In the wider view, every army on the move needs a destination. It’s put to Ujiri that the 2016 all-star game — a moment MLSE hopes to use in order to re-announce the franchise to the league — is an obvious target.

    “I think it has to be around that time that you at least see what the picture is going to look like. Listen, we’re not trying to buy time here. We have to see what we have and advance from there. But yes, I like that timeframe, where you should at least know that your team is emerging.”

    If the tank’s out, is it possible to build a winner without top-five picks?

    Tough,” Ujiri says. “Also possible, but it’s tough.”

    This is the future. Hamstrung by existing deals pushing against the cap ceiling, Ujiri is wrestling with the right now. Make a plan, take a step, reassess, make a new plan.


    http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...ise_kelly.html
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  11. #71
    Raptors Republic Starter S.R.'s Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Are we being given some insights in to a timeline?

    2015-16 being the target?
    http://www.thestar.com/sports/raptor...ise_kelly.html
    I've got a feeling we're all (pro- and anti-tank) gonna be disappointed by the lack of action this season. Well, disappointed is the wrong word so long as we end up with a winner one way or another, but these latest TL and MU interviews seem to indicate that hindsight on this period is going to reveal a lot of sound and fury on the part of us fans.

    Orrrrrr, Ujiri is playing the other GMs for fools by announcing his willingness to stand pat. How else would you hope to drive hard bargains?

  12. #72
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptorsss's Avatar
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    You don't win trades if you're desperate, (I still don't know how he managed to get Novak and 3 draft picks for Bargs, though). I honestly don't understand some fans desire to blow the team up at this time, have you guys not learned anything from the Colangelo experience?

    Masai isn't promising you anything or talking up the team and the players, so don't go saying that he's happy with this team. And unless, at least one of Gay, Derozan, Lowry, Valanciunas develop into superstars early in the season expect the team to tank for the lottery.
    -"You canít run from me. I mean, my heart donít bleed Kool-Aid."
    -"ďI ainít no diva! I donít have no blond hair, red hair. Iím Reggie Evans.Ē

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