Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

[Mediumcore]

I just really like the idea of having all those pieces in place along with 2 2016 1st rounders to play with. This is WHY we hired Ujiri, he's supposed to be excellent at managing and moving assets.

Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!

[rap]

Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!

It depends on the timeframe and your goal. For example, these are some of many options
1. Give players away now and tank to perhaps until 2016
2. "Spin the wheels" by trading away talent opportunistically for future picks with a plan to bottom out in 2016 when most contracts expire
3. Rehire BC to trade away all these picks, assets to just miss the playoffs again

In terms of asset (draft pick and young player) acquisition #2 might be better then #1.
For example,
#1 could yield a top 5 lotto pick in 2014, plus all the picks from Bargs trade assuming current players are dumped for Stuckey/Villa trade
#2 could yield a top 10 pick in 2014, plus the pick from Bargs trade, plus more picks/players from Gay, Lowry, DD etc
#3 let's not go there.

That is, #2 could provide the team more value for a long term rebuild of the franchise as they could acquire many draft picks.
However, #1 might provide more value in 2014 only but may not be good for a long term rebuild.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

It depends on the timeframe and your goal. For example, these are some of many options
1. Give players away now and tank and perhaps until 2016
2. "Spin the wheels" by trading away talent for future picks with a plan to bottom out in 2016 when most contracts expire
3. Rehire BC to trade away all these picks, assets to just miss the playoffs again

In terms of asset (draft pick and young player) acquisition #2 might be better then #1.
For example,
#1 could yield a top 5 lotto pick in 2014, plus all the picks from Bargs trade assuming current players are dumped for Stuckey/Villa trade
#2 could yield a top 10 pick in 2014, plus the pick from Bargs trade, plus more picks/players from Gay, Lowry, DD etc
#3 let's not go there.

That is, #2 could provide the team more value for a long term rebuild of the franchise as they could acquire many draft picks.
However, #1 might provide more value in 2014 only but may not be good for a long term rebuild.

If you trade away your "talent" now (I assume this includes Gay, DeRozan, Lowry and Johnson), then what contracts will be expiring in 2016? You just traded all those contracts away as part of your talent dump.

I think the moment you trade away current talent (for future picks, young players with potential, expiring contracts) IS the moment the tank/rebuild starts.

[Xixak]

Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!

I DIDNT SAY THEY WERE FOR TANKING.

I said they were assets. Either to trade or draft players with. Stop being foolish.

[Craiger]

Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!

To be blunt, assuming nothing crazy takes place, I will be in full question Masai mode if he chooses to tank a few years down the road (or even next year) rather than right now.

If he's going to tank, it needs to be done sooner rather than later - ie. this offseason or very early this season. If he is going to go 'win now' mode, it can be done later rather than sooner, but closer to the trade deadline (or at the very least next offseason). If he is going 'this team as is, is good enough to compete' mode, well it damn well better be.

To me anything else is just wasting time and opportunities. Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.

[Fully]

I just really like the idea of having all those pieces in place along with 2 2016 1st rounders to play with. This is WHY we hired Ujiri, he's supposed to be excellent at managing and moving assets.

This is why they brought in Ujiri? To stand pat with the exact same core that he inherited from Colangelo and won 34 games last year?

[Mediumcore]

LOL, I thought I was pretty clearly joking. Here's another one....

Hmmm...2 first round picks in 2016, Cap space with Gay of the books, Kevin Durrant a free agent, Raptors were his favourite team growing up. See how fun it is to connect imaginary dots?!

[rap]

If you trade away your "talent" now (I assume this includes Gay, DeRozan, Lowry and Johnson), then what contracts will be expiring in 2016? You just traded all those contracts away as part of your talent dump.

I think the moment you trade away current talent (for future picks, young players with potential, expiring contracts) IS the moment the tank/rebuild starts.

If we are able to trade them all today then sure but dumping all 5 starters will saturate the market and yield a poor return. But if we are able to trade out RG and KL this year and DD and AJ next year then, 2015 or 2016 it the year the team bottoms.

Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.

Using this analogy, just because you start the race today doesn't mean you will finish well. If you stretch, hydrate at the start, wait for more comfortable shoes and take time to learn the course (where the hills are, where the aid stations are) you might do better. In the analogy, trading away talent over two years for good returns maybe better in the long run then just dumping players for next to nothing now. Sure you have a 1/2 mile head start, but if you haven't prepared well enough you might cramp or get a blister or get lost on your wayetc

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If we are able to trade them all today then sure but dumping all 5 starters will saturate the market and yield a poor return. But if we are able to trade out RG and KL this year and DD and AJ next year then, 2015 or 2016 it the year the team bottoms.

Why would you ever do that? Why weaken your team immediately (ie: goodbye 'win now'), but not fully invest in tank/rebuild immediately? Of all the strategies I've heard, from tweaking to retooling to rebuilding to tanking, that is the one that makes the least sense to me. At this point, I don't care which way MU decides to take this team, but I want him to be 100% behind his decision.

For 7 years, BC failed to stick to a single plan, which is exactly what your suggested strategy seems to be doing. By only partially tanking/rebuilding this season, you're squandering the opportunity to maximize your chances to kick-start your rebuild via the loaded 2014 draft. I don't get it.

[rap]

Why would you ever do that? Why weaken your team immediately (ie: goodbye 'win now'), but not fully invest in tank/rebuild immediately? Of all the strategies I've heard, from tweaking to retooling to rebuilding to tanking, that is the one that makes the least sense to me. At this point, I don't care which way MU decides to take this team, but I want him to be 100% behind his decision.

For 7 years, BC failed to stick to a single plan, which is exactly what your suggested strategy seems to be doing. Be only partially tanking/rebuilding this season, you're squandering the opportunity to maximize your chances to kick-start your rebuild via the loaded 2014 draft. I don't get it.

It depends on your goal. Is the teams goal is maximize long term success of the franchise. Or is the team's goal to maximize the 2014 draft pick spot or something else?

That is, a top 5 lotto pick in 2014 is not guaranteed better option then a top 10 pick in 2014 + various picks acquired from trading Gay/Lowry/DD/AJ away. A 2014 tank is highly dependent on that one player turning out to be a elite. The later option sets up the team with plenty of good depth options some who will bust and some who will outperform as starters.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

It depends on your goal. Is the teams goal is maximize long term success of the franchise. Or is the team's goal to maximize the 2014 draft pick spot or something else?

That is, a top 5 lotto pick in 2014 is not guaranteed better option then a top 10 pick in 2014 + various picks acquired from trading Gay/Lowry/DD/AJ away. A 2014 tank is highly dependent on that one player turning out to be a elite. The later option sets up the team with plenty of good depth options some who will bust and some who will outperform as starters.

You were talking about 'bottoming out' the following season, so my assumption was that you believed a complete rebuild was in the team's best interest, with the long-term in mind. Once that decision is made, why waste an entire season kinda rebuilding and kinda competing? By doing that you're not maximizing the team's gains from the 2014 draft, which should be the first step in the rebuilding process (I never meant to suggest that the 2014 draft was the be-all-and-end-all of a rebuilding process).

If you know a rebuild is the team's best bet for sustainable, long-term success, why waste another season by not fully committing to the ultimate course of action? Why not improve your pick (and possibly gain additional picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, as the first step in your rebuilding process? A top-5 in any draft is almost always going to land a better player than 5-10, which is almost always better than a pick outside the top-10, and so on, plus the pick (or player taken with the pick) will have more trade value the higher it is in the draft. I fail to see the logic behind settling for a lesser pick (and possibly less picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, especially when you've already determined that a rebuild is the best option.

[rap]

You were talking about 'bottoming out' the following season, so my assumption was that you believed a complete rebuild was in the team's best interest, with the long-term in mind. Once that decision is made, why waste an entire season kinda rebuilding and kinda competing? By doing that you're not maximizing the team's gains from the 2014 draft, which should be the first step in the rebuilding process (I never meant to suggest that the 2014 draft was the be-all-and-end-all of a rebuilding process).

If you know a rebuild is the team's best bet for sustainable, long-term success, why waste another season by not fully committing to the ultimate course of action? Why not improve your pick (and possibly gain additional picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, as the first step in your rebuilding process? A top-5 in any draft is almost always going to land a better player than 5-10, which is almost better than a pick outside the top-10, and so on, plus the pick (or player taken with the pick) will have more trade value the higher it is in the draft. I fail to see the logic behind settling for a lesser pick (and possibly less picks) in the loaded 2014 draft, especially when you've already determined that a rebuild is the best option.

If the team can get picks for DD/RG/KL etc in 2014 then what you say makes sense. However, from what I gathered this team is not "set up to tank" and good value trades are not available. What makes more sense then giving away players for Stuckey/Villa returns is to tweak the roster add good pieces on value contracts and trade opportunistically to maximize the long term assets of the organization.

That said, the situation in league is too fluid as the raptors may have an injury that forces a certain direction or may get off to a great start which may lead to another path. Or another team later in the season is contending for a playoff spot and wants to upgrade a position where now they want to stand pat and so will offer a better return. These trades need two partners (unless we are dumping talent for nothing). I'm not sure Masai will ever fully tank, as he may try to improve the team by trading his way out of the mess, but if he does tank I'm seeing the 2015/2016 season being the bottoming point.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If the team can get picks for DD/RG/KL etc in 2014 then what you say makes sense. However, from what I gathered this team is not "set up to tank" and good value trades are not available. What makes more sense then giving away players for Stuckey/Villa returns is to tweak the roster add good pieces on value contracts and trade opportunistically to maximize the long term assets of the organization.

That said, the situation in league is too fluid as the raptors may have an injury that forces a certain direction or may get off to a great start which may lead to another path. Or another team later in the season is contending for a playoff spot and wants to upgrade a position where now they want to stand pat and so will offer a better return. These trades need two partners (unless we are dumping talent for nothing). I'm not sure Masai will ever fully tank, as he may try to improve the team by trading his way out of the mess, but if he does tank I'm seeing the 2015/2016 season being the bottoming point.

I only started commenting on your proposed strategy of rebuilding over two season (ie: trade some talent this season, some talent next season), bottoming out in either 2015 or 2016, rather than fully starting the rebuild this season (see post #39). Retooling to improve the team to compete for playoffs today, while also keeping the future in mind, is a completely different strategy and a whole other discussion.

The only point I was trying to make is that if you're going to start trading away talent this season (as opposed to trading talent for different, but equal talent) - aka tank/rebuild (as opposed to retool) - then I would much rather see MU fully commit to that strategy immediately, rather than half commit to it this season and have it linger on for another season only half-heartedly committed to. I want MU to pick a strategy (retool to compete now OR tank/rebuild now) and go 'all in' immediately (by this season's trade deadline).

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

This is what i was afraid would happen. Now this thread has become a tank vs do not tank thread!!!

Common people!!! hehehe

OK can we put it this way, if you are PRO-tanking, can you tell me what would be the timeline if the Raps decided to tank mid-season? Year by year, what will you hope to accomplish during this rebuilding mode, and where will that put the Raps.

Something like this:

2013 Tank, acquire assets through trades, get high draft pick
2014 franchise player acquired, losing season acquire another high draft pick, trade for role players? vets?
2015 playoffs? or another high draft pick? re-sign JV to max
2016 ????

Im assuming this would be the best case scenario. And by that i mean, JV doesnt ask to be traded or says he will not be signing an extension. or that they end up getting a bust in the draft.

[Craiger]

Using this analogy, just because you start the race today doesn't mean you will finish well. If you stretch, hydrate at the start, wait for more comfortable shoes and take time to learn the course (where the hills are, where the aid stations are) you might do better. In the analogy, trading away talent over two years for good returns maybe better in the long run then just dumping players for next to nothing now. Sure you have a 1/2 mile head start, but if you haven't prepared well enough you might cramp or get a blister or get lost on your wayetc

Sure, if you show up to the race without your shoes on, its worth the wait to put them on.

I'm just using that analogy assuming all else is equal (everyone showed up with shoes on and appropriately tied ofcourse ).