Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 72

Thread: Best case scenario timeline - Tanking vs. Not-tanking

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Cute, but wrong.

    For example, Utah is tanking this year but they're doing it the way a properly managed team tanks: they already have most of their young core, but they're going to spend a year giving that core starter minutes and loads of NBA experience, probably while losing a lot of games. And at the end of the year, they'll know if Favors, Kanter, Hayward and Burke are true NBA starter-level players or not, they'll have at least two first-round picks (their own - which should be mid-to-high lottery - plus Golden State's) and they'll have only seven million bucks committed in salary because they traded for Golden State's baggage to clear their cap space. Plus, who knows, maybe Biedrins rediscovers his game, in which case they have a reasonable trade asset if they want it (for more young talent or picks).

    Really, the only flaw in Utah's plan was that they should have traded Jefferson and Millsap rather than simply giving them up for nothing, but they were in a playoff race and had good odds of making the 8th seed, and for a small-market team where the playoff revenue means a serious boost to the bottom line that's understandable.

    See also: Cleveland (started from nothing, three years later has a large core of quality young talent), Orlando (midway through the post-Dwight rebuild, not done assembling their core but well along), etc.
    The big picture is that there are very few well managed teams to begin with. Orlando lost Dwight and Cleveland lost James and Toronto lost Bosh (and Carter even before then). What will prevent these teams from losing their next superstars if not for proper management?

    If we want to consider a good team, then I would point to a team like the Spurs. Robinson's injury enabled a tank for which they drafted Duncan. But since drafting Duncan, they have generally drafted well (Ginbolli, Parker, Leonard, Splitter) using their last first round picks and second picks. And they not only retained Duncan they got him to take a below market value contract to be able to sign other talent. This is something that good management can do but granted it does help the Spurs that they were blessed with Duncan.

    What tanking seems to do is give a team the RFA "window" to contend before that star moves onto greener pastures. This is a short term strategy for the GM to retain his job but is not a long term strategy to build a contending team.

  2. #22
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,222
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    Houston worked on the Harden trade in preparation for Howard this off season. Plan B was 2014 UFA batch of players (Bosh, Lebron etc). Masai has already talked about his two year window, so 2016 is the start of the "rebuild" and till then he is acquiring assets first and foremost.
    Good lord, I hope Ujiri wasn't brought in to spend two full seasons (and two full off-seasons more importantly) waiting to start a rebuild. If his plan is to simply acquire assets until then, why doesn't he move players from the Gay/Lowry/DD/Amir group in the next month and start the process now? Playing out the string for two years with a core that you don't plan on building with beyond that is practically the definition of spinning your tires.

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    2,301
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I think Ujiri wants to hurry up and evaluate what he has with this roster and then either tank or tweak as soon as he can. Makes no sense to waste a season trying to figure out what to do. Trade deadline should be interesting.

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    1,399
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    This is a good thread and I will be very interested to see what fans think the future holds and what direction MU actually takes this team. But I think there are options and flexibility going into the next few seasons that may allow for a continued tweaking or a tank.

    I think how this team performs early on in the season will tell the tale. If it's not working, I expect MU will start cleaning house the first chance he gets. Rudy, Lowry, Amir, DD, Ross, Fields and Novak could all go in the next couple of seasons. Fields is perhaps the most questionable, but I'm sure there will be someone out there willing to take an expiring contract after this season. We could quite easily go into full tank mode, however, I do not see us being players in the Wiggins sweepstakes.

    If the team performs well, then this is where it gets cloudy to me. In order for the team to be successful, then its safe to say we need just about every player on the roster to perform at a high level, especially guys like Rudy and Lowry. If this is the case, then thats puts us in position to get a greater return for these players, but also makes one wonder of we would be better off keeping these guys and trying to build a contender by tweaking the roster. I think we could be a playoff team for years to come via the tweaking method, assuming our key players play to their potential. But, is it possible to actually build a contender around our core of JV, RG, DD, Amir, and Lowry. This is the real question that needs to be answered, but even if the answer is yes, will MU be willing to try and take BC's roster to the promised land? This is what I continue to think about when I consider the immediate future of this team. Personally, I think MU is gonna try and move some of these guys to acquire a few draft picks, clear some cap space and maybe land a decent free agent down the road. Which brings another key question: can a great FA be lured to TO, and what sort of situation will we have to be in in order to do so? This team will look less appealing if some of our top players have been shipped off for toxic and/or expiring contracts and draft picks.

    MU has inherited an interesting situation. If this team looks playoff bound near the deadline, what the hell do you do then? If it looks like a tweak here and there could put us up in Eastern conference contention, do you really think MU will go that way?
    I think he is going to blow it up. We could see the the playoffs this year and maybe not again for at least two seasons. My guess is he sticks with JV, Amir, and DD and maybe a guy like Acy for the next couple of seasons, while the rest of the roster gets turned over.

  5. #25
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    Good lord, I hope Ujiri wasn't brought in to spend two full seasons (and two full off-seasons more importantly) waiting to start a rebuild. If his plan is to simply acquire assets until then, why doesn't he move players from the Gay/Lowry/DD/Amir group in the next month and start the process now? Playing out the string for two years with a core that you don't plan on building with beyond that is practically the definition of spinning your tires.
    I probabably didn't write that well. My theory is Masai big moves start happening 2016. He will likely still trade (either small tweak upgrades or major teardown along the way) but the UFA contracts he signs and players he trades for will be done in such away as to ensure he has good flexibility in 2016 when the bulk of the contracts expire

  6. #26
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,119
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    The big picture is that there are very few well managed teams to begin with. Orlando lost Dwight and Cleveland lost James and Toronto lost Bosh (and Carter even before then). What will prevent these teams from losing their next superstars if not for proper management?

    If we want to consider a good team, then I would point to a team like the Spurs. Robinson's injury enabled a tank for which they drafted Duncan. But since drafting Duncan, they have generally drafted well (Ginbolli, Parker, Leonard, Splitter) using their last first round picks and second picks. And they not only retained Duncan they got him to take a below market value contract to be able to sign other talent. This is something that good management can do but granted it does help the Spurs that they were blessed with Duncan.

    What tanking seems to do is give a team the RFA "window" to contend before that star moves onto greener pastures. This is a short term strategy for the GM to retain his job but is not a long term strategy to build a contending team.
    I agree with you on many fronts here (assuming you are saying what I think you are). "Tanking" is only a step in the bigger picture of team building. I think way too many people get caught up in some concept of you tank and then win a title X years later with the player you drafted - if you don't a tank failed. Or conversely, you tank, get player Y and now you have successfully rebuilt.

    However, I'm not entirely convinced there are only a few well managed teams. I think there are, much like coaches and players, only a handful of elite GMs. There are a bunch of good ones, a bunch of bad ones, and a bunch just trying to save their job.

    I think there are 2 things that really seperate the wheat from the chaff - time and pressure. Random events, influence (or financial independence) from ownership, good risk/reward moves that go bad, or bad risk/reward moves that go right, all effect the product on the floor. But over time a 'good' GM will overcome them and a 'bad' GM will be exposed. However moves under pressure can really make a statement about GM. I'm not sure many saw Otis Smith as a great GM, but few would make a claim he was a bad one, UNTIL the team building with Dwight hit its pressure point. When the pressure was on, he choked. Made what I can only call ridiculous moves (he saw at one point or another 4 of the worst contracts for his 'era' on his team - Rashard Lewis (20+ mil), Hedo Turkoglu (11 mil), Gilbert Arenas(20+ mil), and Vince Carter (16+ mil). Honestly the pinnacle has to be refusing to resign Hedo at 10 mil, BUT then trading Gortat + a first round pick (in a more complex trade ofcourse) for the opportunity to pay Hedo even more than that!

    That said I absolutely agree that Toronto should take a Spurs approach. I'm not sure replicating that is realistic - Buford and Co. are the Lebron James/Michael Jordan of the Executive world, at the same time its worth noting how they went about building a dynasty that is half way through its 2nd decade. The draft matters and it matters ALOT to a team in a market like Toronto. You may not hit homeruns all the time, but if you aren't willing to keep going up to the plate you aren't even going to get on base. This is what we saw with Colangelo who seemed to have a very low opinion of the draft, or atleast had a very high opinion of his ability to overcome the barriers in Toronto.

    Market place matters. Spurs, OKC and Portland since Pritchard have all understood this (no suprise they all came from San Antonio). Lakers, Knicks and Houston have to (they know they can buy their players). GMs who don't recognize their market for labour (the single greatest input in running a sports team) are either doomed to fail or are begging for the basketball gods to shine up their ass.

    Now I'm firmly in the pro tanking camp, I personally see trying to build with this roster as a its stands as a low reward propostion. But regardless of what route Masai/Timmer decide to go, maintaining (and adding draft picks) is absolutely crucial to the Raptors success. Then it becomes a matter of being comfortable that the guy at the plate can actually hit a pitch every now and again.

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,222
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I really don't see why we even need to tank.

    Blowing up the roster for a miniscule chance to land a superstar just seems foolish to me. Teams like Minnesota and Sac have been tanking since 2007 and what do they have to show for it? 0 playoff appearances between the two of them.

    If the 2014 draft is as good as everyone says it is, even if we get the 8th seed we'd still be able to get an impact player with the 15th or 16th pick. Look at how well Ujiri has done with mid-late draft picks in Denver. Selecting Faried 22nd in 2011, who is already a double-double player, and Evan Fournier 20th in 2012 who showed some excellent potential last season when he got a chance to play later on. You can get talent outside of the lottery if you actually know how to draft, San Antonio does it every single damn year.

    Assuming we can resign Lowry and Gay for a combined $25M or less per season (not unrealistic at all), here's what our situation would look like heading into the 2015 offseason.

    Players
    Rudy Gay - 15M
    Kyle Lowry - 10M
    DeMar DeRozan - 9M
    Jonas Valanciunas - 4M
    Terrence Ross - 3M
    2014 1st Round Pick Salary - 1.5M
    2015 1st Round Pick Salary - 1.5M

    Leaving us at just over 40M with about 20M in cap space to work with. We would also be armed with 3 tradeable prospects in Ross and the two first round picks as well as our two 2016 picks to make a move. And that's with 4 of the 5 starting positions already locked in long-term. I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a very ideal position to be in.

    What would make this even better is if Gay or Valanciunas made the all-star team in 2014-15, which wouldn't be too unreasonable to expect if we were able to get a 4th-6th seed in the conference and make some noise around the league. Why wouldn't a star player want to come play with that ensemble? Or why wouldn't we be able to package assets to make a deal and bring one in?
    Your expected salaries actually total closer to $45 million ($44mill to be exact). So we've just lost close to $5 million of your hypothetical cap space thanks to an accounting error.

    The team would also be getting ready to offer JV an extension the following summer (and if he progresses the way everyone hopes, it will be near a max extension in the $12-15 million a year category). Same thing for Terrence Ross - although it will be for a significantly less number.

    Plus we still need to fill out spots 8-15 on the roster... and I'm assuming those players will want to be paid for their services. There's another $10-15 million.

    Other than that though you're bang on.

  8. Like mcHAPPY liked this post
  9. #28
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote JawsGT wrote: View Post
    If this team looks playoff bound near the deadline, what the hell do you do then?

    But, is it possible to actually build a contender around our core of JV, RG, DD, Amir, and Lowry.

    Which brings another key question: can a great FA be lured to TO, and what sort of situation will we have to be in in order to do so? This team will look less appealing if some of our top players have been shipped off for toxic and/or expiring contracts and draft picks.
    The worse case scenario is a 11/14 or 10/15 record to start as it delays a decision on tear down. A 8 and 17 record to start gives a clear tear down signal and a 14 and 11 winning record gives a clear playoff path. The fans/media and mostly everyone will rage if the raptors chose a tank with a 0.500 record.

    I don't think the core as is and with those contracts can contend and the players/contracts need to be re-jigged.


    This is the dream scenario for the pro-rebuild case (I'm not saying it is likely but describing the strawman).
    1. First the team makes the playoffs.
    2. The Raptors draft and develop well given their mid level first round picks and get a few quality starters (like Nuggets and Masai did with mid to bottom first round picks. Or like the Spurs have done with poor first and second round picks). Not many teams can do this and there needs to be some luck.
    3. The team then improves its win record over the next few years and gets on an up trend, which attracts higher quality (but probably not elite) free agents who see Toronto as a viable option.
    4. The team acquire picks, efficient players with good contracts that become trade bait when talent become available. For example, Bledsoe went for a veteran + 2nd round pick this year. There are sign and trades to be had for a step below elite (Tier A minus) talent. As for elite players, I think if the team gets "good enough" then reasonably we can acquire players in their twilight (Hakeem but hopefully it works out better). Or perhaps Wiggins or Canadian when he is a UFA. However, I do think outwinning a warm climate locals (lakers/heat/Houston) or storied franchises (Celtics, Nets, Knicks) will be a challenge for any team. Just like retaining our elite talent will be a challenge. That said, at one point Miami and Houston and Dallas were on the outside looking in and now they are viable destinations for the top free agents.

  10. #29
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    744
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    Your expected salaries actually total closer to $45 million ($44mill to be exact). So we've just lost close to $5 million of your hypothetical cap space thanks to an accounting error.

    I know the number wasn't exactly 40M, I didn't even bother to add it up properly to be honest.

    The team would also be getting ready to offer JV an extension the following summer (and if he progresses the way everyone hopes, it will be near a max extension in the $12-15 million a year category). Same thing for Terrence Ross - although it will be for a significantly less number.

    Not sure why this matters since MLSE is supposedly willing to go into the tax. The same problem would eventually arise if we tanked as well.

    Plus we still need to fill out spots 8-15 on the roster... and I'm assuming those players will want to be paid for their services. There's another $10-15 million.

    Well we'd also have 2 2nd round picks from '14 and '15 drafts to use on the end of the bench, so that's 9 players. One max level guy and then use exceptions (don't think you get MLE if you start under the cap) and minimums to fill out the roster.

    Other than that though you're bang on.

    thanks
    I just really like the idea of having all those pieces in place along with 2 2016 1st rounders to play with. This is WHY we hired Ujiri, he's supposed to be excellent at managing and moving assets.

  11. #30
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I agree with you on many fronts here (assuming you are saying what I think you are). "Tanking" is only a step in the bigger picture of team building. I think way too many people get caught up in some concept of you tank and then win a title X years later with the player you drafted - if you don't a tank failed. Or conversely, you tank, get player Y and now you have successfully rebuilt.

    However, I'm not entirely convinced there are only a few well managed teams. I think there are, much like coaches and players, only a handful of elite GMs. There are a bunch of good ones, a bunch of bad ones, and a bunch just trying to save their job.

    I think there are 2 things that really seperate the wheat from the chaff - time and pressure. Random events, influence (or financial independence) from ownership, good risk/reward moves that go bad, or bad risk/reward moves that go right, all effect the product on the floor. But over time a 'good' GM will overcome them and a 'bad' GM will be exposed. However moves under pressure can really make a statement about GM. I'm not sure many saw Otis Smith as a great GM, but few would make a claim he was a bad one, UNTIL the team building with Dwight hit its pressure point. When the pressure was on, he choked. Made what I can only call ridiculous moves (he saw at one point or another 4 of the worst contracts for his 'era' on his team - Rashard Lewis (20+ mil), Hedo Turkoglu (11 mil), Gilbert Arenas(20+ mil), and Vince Carter (16+ mil). Honestly the pinnacle has to be refusing to resign Hedo at 10 mil, BUT then trading Gortat + a first round pick (in a more complex trade ofcourse) for the opportunity to pay Hedo even more than that!

    That said I absolutely agree that Toronto should take a Spurs approach. I'm not sure replicating that is realistic - Buford and Co. are the Lebron James/Michael Jordan of the Executive world, at the same time its worth noting how they went about building a dynasty that is half way through its 2nd decade. The draft matters and it matters ALOT to a team in a market like Toronto. You may not hit homeruns all the time, but if you aren't willing to keep going up to the plate you aren't even going to get on base. This is what we saw with Colangelo who seemed to have a very low opinion of the draft, or atleast had a very high opinion of his ability to overcome the barriers in Toronto.

    Market place matters. Spurs, OKC and Portland since Pritchard have all understood this (no suprise they all came from San Antonio). Lakers, Knicks and Houston have to (they know they can buy their players). GMs who don't recognize their market for labour (the single greatest input in running a sports team) are either doomed to fail or are begging for the basketball gods to shine up their ass.

    Now I'm firmly in the pro tanking camp, I personally see trying to build with this roster as a its stands as a low reward propostion. But regardless of what route Masai/Timmer decide to go, maintaining (and adding draft picks) is absolutely crucial to the Raptors success. Then it becomes a matter of being comfortable that the guy at the plate can actually hit a pitch every now and again.
    I agree and I think teams that tank do it half way right. The GM convinces the owner to tank to acquire elite talent. The owner buys in but after a couple of years, the owner loses patience as the team is losing too much money/season ticket holders etc. The owner then forces the GM to "win now" to improve profitability. Or sometimes, the GM drafted poorly even with good tank picks or has been given a time limit like 3 years to turn the franchise around and after tanking it is made clear that his 'butt' is on the line so he rushes the rebuild to make the playoffs.

    If the team strategy is to build through trades or draft/tanking or signing elite UFA there is always some luck/skill involved. Dallas and the Lakers were locked out of the UFA market this year. Trades sometimes don't work because of injury or poor team fit/chemistry. And drafting needs some luck as well. That said, an "elite" GM is right more often then not and an "elite" owner understands that there will be some down cycles and hopefully doesn't try to force a short term fix (trade away young players/picks for an old veteran) that will hamper the team in the long term.

  12. #31
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    2,301
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I just really like the idea of having all those pieces in place along with 2 2016 1st rounders to play with. This is WHY we hired Ujiri, he's supposed to be excellent at managing and moving assets.
    Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!

  13. #32
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!
    It depends on the timeframe and your goal. For example, these are some of many options
    1. Give players away now and tank to perhaps until 2016
    2. "Spin the wheels" by trading away talent opportunistically for future picks with a plan to bottom out in 2016 when most contracts expire
    3. Rehire BC to trade away all these picks, assets to just miss the playoffs again

    In terms of asset (draft pick and young player) acquisition #2 might be better then #1.
    For example,
    #1 could yield a top 5 lotto pick in 2014, plus all the picks from Bargs trade assuming current players are dumped for Stuckey/Villa trade
    #2 could yield a top 10 pick in 2014, plus the pick from Bargs trade, plus more picks/players from Gay, Lowry, DD etc
    #3 let's not go there.

    That is, #2 could provide the team more value for a long term rebuild of the franchise as they could acquire many draft picks.
    However, #1 might provide more value in 2014 only but may not be good for a long term rebuild.
    Last edited by rap; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 11:07 AM.

  14. #33
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,610
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    It depends on the timeframe and your goal. For example, these are some of many options
    1. Give players away now and tank and perhaps until 2016
    2. "Spin the wheels" by trading away talent for future picks with a plan to bottom out in 2016 when most contracts expire
    3. Rehire BC to trade away all these picks, assets to just miss the playoffs again

    In terms of asset (draft pick and young player) acquisition #2 might be better then #1.
    For example,
    #1 could yield a top 5 lotto pick in 2014, plus all the picks from Bargs trade assuming current players are dumped for Stuckey/Villa trade
    #2 could yield a top 10 pick in 2014, plus the pick from Bargs trade, plus more picks/players from Gay, Lowry, DD etc
    #3 let's not go there.

    That is, #2 could provide the team more value for a long term rebuild of the franchise as they could acquire many draft picks.
    However, #1 might provide more value in 2014 only but may not be good for a long term rebuild.
    If you trade away your "talent" now (I assume this includes Gay, DeRozan, Lowry and Johnson), then what contracts will be expiring in 2016? You just traded all those contracts away as part of your talent dump.

    I think the moment you trade away current talent (for future picks, young players with potential, expiring contracts) IS the moment the tank/rebuild starts.

  15. #34
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    744
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!
    I DIDNT SAY THEY WERE FOR TANKING.

    I said they were assets. Either to trade or draft players with. Stop being foolish.

  16. #35
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,119
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Hmmmm, 2 2016 1st round picks....timeline for tanking.....hamster spinning wheel....that's it! We should tank the 2016 season instead of this season!!!
    To be blunt, assuming nothing crazy takes place, I will be in full question Masai mode if he chooses to tank a few years down the road (or even next year) rather than right now.

    If he's going to tank, it needs to be done sooner rather than later - ie. this offseason or very early this season. If he is going to go 'win now' mode, it can be done later rather than sooner, but closer to the trade deadline (or at the very least next offseason). If he is going 'this team as is, is good enough to compete' mode, well it damn well better be.

    To me anything else is just wasting time and opportunities. Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.

  17. Like CalgaryRapsFan liked this post
  18. #36
    Raptors Republic All-Star Fully's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,222
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I just really like the idea of having all those pieces in place along with 2 2016 1st rounders to play with. This is WHY we hired Ujiri, he's supposed to be excellent at managing and moving assets.
    This is why they brought in Ujiri? To stand pat with the exact same core that he inherited from Colangelo and won 34 games last year?

  19. Like mcHAPPY liked this post
  20. #37
    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    2,301
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    LOL, I thought I was pretty clearly joking. Here's another one....

    Hmmm...2 first round picks in 2016, Cap space with Gay of the books, Kevin Durrant a free agent, Raptors were his favourite team growing up. See how fun it is to connect imaginary dots?!

  21. Like mcHAPPY liked this post
  22. #38
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    If you trade away your "talent" now (I assume this includes Gay, DeRozan, Lowry and Johnson), then what contracts will be expiring in 2016? You just traded all those contracts away as part of your talent dump.

    I think the moment you trade away current talent (for future picks, young players with potential, expiring contracts) IS the moment the tank/rebuild starts.
    If we are able to trade them all today then sure but dumping all 5 starters will saturate the market and yield a poor return. But if we are able to trade out RG and KL this year and DD and AJ next year then, 2015 or 2016 it the year the team bottoms.


    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Team building is a marathon and not a sprint, but intentionally starting 1/2km behind the field is senseless.
    Using this analogy, just because you start the race today doesn't mean you will finish well. If you stretch, hydrate at the start, wait for more comfortable shoes and take time to learn the course (where the hills are, where the aid stations are) you might do better. In the analogy, trading away talent over two years for good returns maybe better in the long run then just dumping players for next to nothing now. Sure you have a 1/2 mile head start, but if you haven't prepared well enough you might cramp or get a blister or get lost on your wayetc

  23. #39
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,610
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote rap wrote: View Post
    If we are able to trade them all today then sure but dumping all 5 starters will saturate the market and yield a poor return. But if we are able to trade out RG and KL this year and DD and AJ next year then, 2015 or 2016 it the year the team bottoms.
    Why would you ever do that? Why weaken your team immediately (ie: goodbye 'win now'), but not fully invest in tank/rebuild immediately? Of all the strategies I've heard, from tweaking to retooling to rebuilding to tanking, that is the one that makes the least sense to me. At this point, I don't care which way MU decides to take this team, but I want him to be 100% behind his decision.

    For 7 years, BC failed to stick to a single plan, which is exactly what your suggested strategy seems to be doing. By only partially tanking/rebuilding this season, you're squandering the opportunity to maximize your chances to kick-start your rebuild via the loaded 2014 draft. I don't get it.
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 12:36 PM.

  24. Like mcHAPPY, Fully liked this post
  25. #40
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    43
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Why would you ever do that? Why weaken your team immediately (ie: goodbye 'win now'), but not fully invest in tank/rebuild immediately? Of all the strategies I've heard, from tweaking to retooling to rebuilding to tanking, that is the one that makes the least sense to me. At this point, I don't care which way MU decides to take this team, but I want him to be 100% behind his decision.

    For 7 years, BC failed to stick to a single plan, which is exactly what your suggested strategy seems to be doing. Be only partially tanking/rebuilding this season, you're squandering the opportunity to maximize your chances to kick-start your rebuild via the loaded 2014 draft. I don't get it.
    It depends on your goal. Is the teams goal is maximize long term success of the franchise. Or is the team's goal to maximize the 2014 draft pick spot or something else?

    That is, a top 5 lotto pick in 2014 is not guaranteed better option then a top 10 pick in 2014 + various picks acquired from trading Gay/Lowry/DD/AJ away. A 2014 tank is highly dependent on that one player turning out to be a elite. The later option sets up the team with plenty of good depth options some who will bust and some who will outperform as starters.

Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •