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Thread: ESPN Ranks/Projects Lowry as #8 PG in League for 2013-14

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic Rookie Vimsanity's Avatar
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    Remember, no one just "made up" this list, it's solely based on the rankings of the players' projected WARP, or Wins Above Replacement. I believe WARP is actually a meaningful and useful stat in baseball, but, as you can see, not so much in basketball.

    Not sure why they would bother making a list based on a stat like this, but then again, it's the off-season.

    edit: typo
    Last edited by Vimsanity; Tue Jul 30th, 2013 at 01:32 PM.

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  3. #42
    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    I don't get the Rose love on here. You guys realize that he just missed an entire year with a torn ACL right? There is a very good chance he is not going to be the same player when he comes back. I think where they rank him is a good compromise, though I probably would have left him off the list altogether.
    Lowry is argualbly top tn, that list is actually ok.
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  4. #43
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    Quote Vimsanity wrote: View Post
    Remember, no one just "made up" this list, it's solely based on the rankings of the players' projected WARP, or Wins Above Replacement. I believe WARP is actually a meaningful and useful stat in baseball, but, as you can see, not so much in basketball.

    Not sure why they would bother making a list based on a stat like is, but then again, it's the off-season.
    Mind-bogglingly, no one in this thread seems to be aware of this...

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  6. #44
    Raptors Republic Starter minks77's Avatar
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    Any list that doesn't have Tony Parker in the top 5 isn't even worth posting. Peeps sleep on him so hard even after a near MVP season last year and being the second best player in the finals before the hamstring injury.

    Paul
    Parker
    The rest

  7. #45
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    I wouldn't put Lowry in the top ten, but it is a projection list, so let's hope they are right.

  8. #46
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    I think its worth noting that perceptions doesn't make a metric untrue (or true for that matter).

    If I used a metric that said Bargnani was a negative producer on the floor 3-4 years ago how many would have said the metric is wrong? If I used that same metric today?

    Two other things particularily in regards to Parker, but also all players in general:

    - some of the valuations seems to be based on projections

    Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the last two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.
    - the magnitude of difference is marginal as we move down the list.

    Chris Paul = 15.9 WARP vs Russel Westbrook (ranked #2) = 11.7 WARP for a difference of 4.2

    Tony Parker = 7.1 WARP vs Deron Williams (ranked #5) = 9.9 WARP for a difference of 2.8

    Tony Parker = 7.1 WARP vs Kyle Lowry (ranked #8) = 8.1 WARP for a difference of 1

    There is a significantly decreasing scale as the list moves down. The list not holding true at the top can definetely raise flags, but the list not holding true as we move down the rankings could easily be small projections not holding true.

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  10. #47
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    LOL some of these lists are just too hard to read

    Going by what they were pre injuries
    1. Rose
    2. Paul
    3. Rondo
    4. Irving
    5. Westbrook
    6. Parker
    7. Curry
    8. Williams
    9. Holiday
    10. Conley
    11. Rubio
    12. Wall
    13. Lillard
    14. Lawson
    15. Lowry

    I cant see Lowry being put ahead of any 14 of those guys atm

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    Raptors Republic Superstar lilmamba_'s Avatar
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    Quote alex_elstone wrote: View Post
    LOL some of these lists are just too hard to read

    Going by what they were pre injuries
    1. Rose
    2. Paul
    3. Rondo
    4. Irving
    5. Westbrook
    6. Parker
    7. Curry
    8. Williams
    9. Holiday
    10. Conley
    11. Rubio
    12. Wall
    13. Lillard
    14. Lawson
    15. Lowry

    I cant see Lowry being put ahead of any 14 of those guys atm
    I can see him in front of Lillard
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    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    I've turned into a Westbrook fan in the last months, I personally think when he's having a consistent, smart game, he's easily the best point guard.

    But, my rankings are as follows:

    1. Chris Paul
    2. Tony Parker
    3. Russel Westbrook
    4. Derrick Rose
    5. Kyrie Irving
    6. Steph Curry
    7. Rajon Rondo
    8. Deron Williams
    9. Mike Conley
    10. Damian Lillard

    I don't understand how people continue to underrate Paul, in my honest opinion, he's the best point guard in the league, mainly just from his talent alone and what he's been able to turn the Clippers into. Let's all admit it, the Clippers are a mediocre, 8th, maybe even 7th team in a strong Western Conference.
    Chris Paul has incredible court vision, a sense of calm and peace at mind when running an offense - no defensive pressure can phase him. The assist/turnover ration is terrific, with 9.8 career assists to 2.4 career turnovers.
    Paul is also an underrated shooter, averaging near 36% from outside in his career, 86% percent from the free throw line, and a very good career FG percentage at 47%.

    He's also a great two-way player, a true competitor, and definitely a late game option. It hurts my head when seeing Paul anything other than top 2 on ANY point guard list...

  13. #50
    Raptors Republic Starter connected's Avatar
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    Quote blackjitsu wrote: View Post
    Remember the ESPN list is projecting next season, it is not a career projection or a career ranking

    Ugh where do I start? I would like to just clear up your top 14 but some of your picks below are just...
    Nash is done. Teague should be higher... Noone else below 14 is worth mentioning, but how could you have Jennings and Ellis on your list? Am I missing something? I digress. Let's unpack your top 14:

    1. Paul
    2. Rose -- injured
    3. Westbrook --injured
    4. Irving
    5. Curry -- does he qualify as a pg for the article -- not sure?
    6. Holiday -- learning a new system on a new team in a tougher division
    7. Parker -- getting up there in age
    8. Williams -- Maybe 5 years ago. Not that it matters but the idea that he is a superstar pg is long past.
    9. Rondo -- injured
    10. Rubio -- hasn't proven himself for a full season without spending huge chunks injured
    11. Wall -- played good for the last 2 months of the season; if that's not good enough for the Raps then...
    12. Lawson
    13. Conley
    14. Lillard -- Looks like he'll have a better career, but that's not what the list is about.
    Let's breakdown your comments

    Ugh where do I start? usually at the beginning I would like to just clear up your top 14 but some of your picks below are just... Nash is done. No he's not... he's old and has had one bad year -- sure he's an injury risk waiting to happen but in 2012 he averaged 12pts 53.2%FG 39% 3pt and 89% Ft and 10ast. He will still be an offensive juggernaut. Don't sleep on him Teague should be higher... I said underrated but with the exception of Nash who would YOU rank him higher than Noone else below 14 is worth mentioning, but how could you have Jennings and Ellis on your list? they play for different teams now and Ellis is more of a PG than an SG so what's the question. Am I missing something? yes, you are. I digress. Let's unpack your top 14:

    1. Paul
    2. Rose -- injured not any more he said he would be there for opening day
    3. Westbrook --injured that doesn't change his talent level
    4. Irving
    5. Curry -- does he qualify as a pg for the article -- not sure? he's already in the article so yes -- and sidenote: my rankings aren't based on the stat from the article
    6. Holiday -- learning a new system on a new team in a tougher division see westbrook
    7. Parker -- getting up there in age had an MVP calibre season and doesn't show signs of slowing down --- hell he could be ranked even higher
    8. Williams -- Maybe 5 years ago. Not that it matters but the idea that he is a superstar pg is long past. 8th isn't a superstar ranking -- it means potential allstar, which he has been on a consistent basis
    9. Rondo -- injured see westbrook
    10. Rubio -- hasn't proven himself for a full season without spending huge chunks injured as mentioned this is based more on potential but sure this is debatable
    11. Wall -- played good for the last 2 months of the season; if that's not good enough for the Raps then...I don't get what you mean -- I ranked him higher than Lowry?!?
    12. Lawson
    13. Conley
    14. Lillard -- Looks like he'll have a better career, but that's not what the list is about. I didn't base this list on WARP but even if I did he would probably be higher than Lowry

  14. #51
    Raptors Republic All-Star JawsGT's Avatar
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    I think PG is the toughest position to rank players, simply because of the diverse styles that different guards have. For example, its probably safe to say that Rose and Westbrook are the best scoring PGs in the game, but both have good assist numbers too ( I believe Westbrook averaged around 8 apg last season). Parker is also a great scoring PG, but I would rank Rose and Westbrook ahead of him. Paul has to be the best "general" in the game, he has an incredible ability to break down the defense, and in a way that gets his teammates involved. He will look for a way to get his teammates involved before looking for his shot. He reminds me of Nash in many ways, who, I could argue, deserves to be in consideration. His age shouldn't eliminate him from the list. Rondo and Rubio are also great at getting their teammates involved and, like Paul and Nash, will do so at the expense of their own shot. Williams, I think, sort of has the best of both those worlds. He can pass and get guys involved, but also has the tools and capability to be a potent scorer, and will be a scorer moreso than a passer if the situation dictates it, but sometimes I think his team would benefit more if he found ways to get others involved. Conley impressed me in the playoffs, he reminds me of Paul in some ways, but he just isn't as skilled as Paul is, but he has a cool and calm demeanor about him, he doesn't seem to get rattled, and only takes shots he can hit. Lawson is a speedy up and comer, but I think scoring is his bigger asset. I know little of Hoilday, Irving and Lillard so I won't comment here. Curry I think is a SG. Wall has alot of potential, but I find it hard to say much about him other than he was impressive down the stretch last season.

    So, for me, it's difficult to rank because we have guys that are "pure" PGs (eg. Paul, Nash, Rondo) and those that are sort of combo guards (eg. Rose, Westbrook, or Kobe last year when he wouldn't accept a reduction in his role to facilitate Howard, and thus decided to be Nash instead). I consider the combo guards to be the fast, athletic guys, that have a knack of getting to the rim and finding guys open for shots via the double team. This is how they primarily generate assists, by drawing the double team with their quickness and dishing out to an open guy for a jump shot. These are also guys that would be effective playing the SG position, and probably wouldn't have to change their game much to do so. The "pure" PGs, however, seem to have a knack of getting guys the ball from anywhere on the court, to anywhere on the court. They do not necessarily have to draw a double team on a drive in order to get guys involved. Furthermore, they know how to run a half-court offense, can call plays and generally dictate the play. They are exceptional passers, have a high bball IQ, and know how to get each and every player involved. They are leaders and motivators. For me, these guys epitimize everything a PG is supposed to be. Neither Rose or Westbrook are typical PGs in my opinion. However, that said, it certainly doesn't make them less effective, nor should they be penalized for their superior athleticism and scoring ability.

    For me, Lowry is sort of in the Williams category. He has great scoring ability, but also can be a good passer. However, based on last season, it was clear he had a difficult time getting others involved, and this could have more to do with coaching and offensive philosophy than Lowrys ability. So, based on what I think I know, I will rank PGs as follows (i'm leaving out Lillard, Irving, and Holiday because I know little about their games and haven't seen either play very much, and Curry because I'm sure he played the SG spot didn't he?).

    1. Paul
    2. Rondo
    3. Rose
    4. Parker
    5. Westbrook
    6. Williams
    7. Nash
    8. Rubio
    9. Conley
    10. Lawson
    11. Lowry
    12. Wall

    I know, I know, why is Rondo #2. Well, I've seen him do things I don't think many or probably any other player in the league can do. I don't think he has been as good as he can be due to the presence of the former big 3...it just wasn't necessary. he can't shoot as well as most, but he can score and has incredible court vision, arguably the best in my opinion. His attitude may be an issue, and if so, that is a terrible trait for a PG. However, I think a mature Rondo can be a real general, and maybe even better than Paul, or Nash in his prime.

    So, Lowry isn't high on the list for me, and would probably be lower if I knew enough to consider those I left out, or if I considered Curry a PG. In addition, it could easily be argued that Wall deserves to be ahead of Lowry. Personally, both have alot to prove this season and I would expect both to move up the list.

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