With or Without You - How Does This Core Fit Together?

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I too really like this analysis. The only thing that doesn't appear to be captured - and I'm not sure how you could - is the relative strength of opposition. For instance, two lineups could have equivalent stats, but if one consistently played against opposition starters and the other against opposition 2nd units, then one could argue that the first lineup was actually better (despite similar statistical results). Overall, I really like looking at the impact one player has on other players/lineups, with offensive output being factored in (sometimes a good offense really is the best defense).

[DanH]

I too really like this analysis. The only thing that doesn't appear to be captured - and I'm not sure how you could - is the relative strength of opposition. For instance, two lineups could have equivalent stats, but if one consistently played against opposition starters and the other against opposition 2nd units, then one could argue that the first lineup was actually better (despite similar statistical results). Overall, I really like looking at the impact one player has on other players/lineups, with offensive output being factored in (sometimes a good offense really is the best defense).

This is definitively true. I can't see a way to capture the opposition. That is why I used WOWY for particular players though - the assumption being that, for example, Gay plays against roughly the same level of opposition night in and night out and throughout his minutes. So the impact his teammates have on the team while he is on the court should be at least a little bit normalized to the level of opposition Gay typically faces (for example, he plays typical starters minutes - the 1st, a bit in the 2nd, half the 3rd and half the 4th). It's not perfect, but it is a bit of a buffer against the reality that I just don't have access to opposition strength data.

[enlightenment]

This gives a ton of ammunition to those who want DD sold high while young.
Ross is a better fit with Rudy defensively and Demar has the worst impact from pretty much everyone.

I also think this shows that a lineup with Lowry - Rudy - Amir - Val in it can grow to have good chemistry and pretty much make each other better.

[Xixak]

Trade DeMar for expirings.

S&T Lowry + Rudy for 2014 picks, move forwards with Ross-JV core. Tank in 2014, snag Wiggins, Andrew Harrison and Dario Saric

Andrew Harrison-Ross-Wiggins-Saric-JV

Tank again in 2015, grab Jahil Okafor.

Harrison-Ross-Wiggins-Okafor-JV with Saric and others off the bench. Perfect championship contender for the future.

[Buyckshot]

Wow, this is absolutely exceptional work. One of the things I like about it is that it passes the eye-test; it backs up a lot of what I think most of us observe and adds more explanation of those things, rather than contradicts those things. For example, some of us have mentioned that Gay looks to involve Valanciunas better than anyone else on the team, and sure enough, there it is in your stats. Amir's general usefulness? Check. Bargnani bringing everyone down? Check. DeRozan actually thriving alongside Gay? Check.

Since this is based on on-court/off-court ratings, would it be true that part of the reason the Amir's stats are so good is that this is comparing him to the other options (which were basically Bargnani, Acy, or playing a SF at PF). It's very possible that his WOWY stats come back to earth a bit this year simply through having a second useful PF on the roster.

Indeed, the Rudy-JV tandem is what I'm most excited for this season.

With regard to Acy, though, he didn't play much but when he did he was great.

Player - ORTG On - DRTG On - ORTG Off - DRTG Off - Net Impact

Acy: 113.8 / 99.8 / 105.6 / 108.6 / +16.9

This is in line with the raw +/- data--I can't find it now because nba.com is being weird, but the top 3 Raptors in +/- were (in order) Amir, Quincy and Rudy. They were all in the positives (I believe Amir was +200-something and Rudy was +100-something) while most of the team was in the negatives

[hateslosing]

This gives a ton of ammunition to those who want DD sold high while young.
Ross is a better fit with Rudy defensively and Demar has the worst impact from pretty much everyone.

I also think this shows that a lineup with Lowry - Rudy - Amir - Val in it can grow to have good chemistry and pretty much make each other better.

I don't see the DD thing in these stats. In fact DanH indicates that he had a slightly positive impact on everyone but Lowry (-4) while Ross had a hugely negative impact on everyone but Lowry (net 0) and Gay (slight positive). So net impact on Gay is a wash while Ross does seem to help Lowry.

[octothorp]

I don't see the DD thing in these stats. In fact DanH indicates that he had a slightly positive impact on everyone but Lowry (-4) while Ross had a hugely negative impact on everyone but Lowry (net 0) and Gay (slight positive). So net impact on Gay is a wash while Ross does seem to help Lowry.

Yeah, I read it the same way. The fact that DeRozan's numbers are helped so much by Gay and (second half) JV really show that he struggles when he's the primary option, and can excel when he's the second option, or has someone who demands attention inside to create driving lanes for him. Which certainly matches what I saw on the court after Gay arrived. Lowry's numbers go down when on the court with DeRozan for exactly the same reason: it bumps Lowry from second or third option down to third or fourth. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, since both Lowry and DeRozan are still improving the performance of all the other starters.

[rap]

Yeah, I read it the same way. The fact that DeRozan's numbers are helped so much by Gay and (second half) JV really show that he struggles when he's the primary option, and can excel when he's the second option, or has someone who demands attention inside to create driving lanes for him. Which certainly matches what I saw on the court after Gay arrived. Lowry's numbers go down when on the court with DeRozan for exactly the same reason: it bumps Lowry from second or third option down to third or fourth. That isn't necessarily a bad thing, since both Lowry and DeRozan are still improving the performance of all the other starters.

To me this says when DD + Anderson, that the defenders hone in on DD and let Anderson go Chuck.
DD + Gay spreads out the defenders and both players excel.

[JawsGT]

I've taken another look at DanH's analysis and there are some interesting points I'd like to make.

Amir is the only player that positively affects all other starters ORTG. He is the last option on the floor, but makes everyone better offensively.

All 5 starters have a positive effect on each other's DRTG (JV only in the second half and overall). The starting lineup looks pretty good defensively, and this has been shown before in other posts as this lineup was actually ranked high defensively amongst the entire league last season. Although defense is supposed to be a weakness of Demar's, he makes everyone around him better defensively. This, ironically, contrasts with Fields who is supposed to be a good defender, and only has a positive effect defensively on Gay (-0.5, which is marginal). I think Demar is a good team defender and for whatever reason (Casey?) this lineup can make it difficult for the opponent to score.

I think Octothorp hit on why Lowry and DD don't seem to work offensively. DD was a go-to guy and Lowry got bumped. For the most part last season, with our starting lineup of JV-AJ-RG-DD-KL, Lowry was the fourth option. Lowry's game, however, is more suited to being an initiator of the offence. If we use him simply as a guy to carry the ball up the court and take a shot here and there, than we are seriously wasting an asset. Furthermore, Demar was also being used in a ball stopper situation. We used him as an ISO player. There really is very little evidence to suggest Demar can be a great ISO player. I like DD, and I think he can be a great player, but I don't think he does well in an ISO role. Another waste of an asset. And this, subsequently, takes away from Lowry's touches, who I think is more suited to a break-your-defender-down type situation. Actually, Demar only appears to work offensively with Rudy (+0.5, marginal), and this is perhaps because the ISO role he was used in wouldn't necessarily affect Rudy because he was used the same way, while Amir, Lowry, and JV suffered. That's less touches in the post for JV and less P'nR's for Lowry and Amir.

Gay has the talent to be a top option, and it appears that JV could be great, so really, we should run our offence through Lowry, Gay, and JV. Demar should maybe used predominantly as a slasher, driver, cutter. Back doors, fast breaks, post-ups, coming off screens for pull-up jumpers and drives and such. I would argue rarely in ISO except in the post, and rarely from deep, and I've argued this for some time. Amir and Lowry should clearly be running the pick and roll quite often. Amir has the greatest positive on Lowry's ORTG impact and vice versa. These two clearly have chemistry.

Of course, running the offence through Gay, Lowry, and JV may work better if we had that 3pt shooter in the SG spot. But this team appears to benefit defensively having DD in the lineup, and unless Fields or Ross can prove to be that 3&D player, we might be better off with Demar. I do think Demar is a decent defender anyways, plus if he was used more "appropriately" on offence it might not be an issue at all.

Acy, clearly, needs to get more minutes. His ratings are better than Amir's, and although the sample size is admittedly small, this should be enough evidence to warrant him getting more playing time. We could easily sub him for Rudy if we want. I do not think he is too "big" to guard most SF's, he is a high energy guy and plays tenacious D (lol). And in those situations we could easily bump Demar up the go to guy hierarchy. And of course, there are times when you could put him in the PF spot (depending on the match up) and he can give you the a similar effort that Amir gives you. I want to see him play.

It would also be interesting to look at the ORTG and DRTG of specific lineups, and compare them and see what the best combinations are. Has that been done on here?

[tucas]

Great job. This has got to be on my top favourite posts on this site. Showing the difference between JV's first and second half of the season has me pumped for next season. And it really shows that even though Amir isn't the most talented player on the team, he's definitely been the teams MVP.

[maputo88]

Amir - Great

Great job. This has got to be on my top favourite posts on this site. Showing the difference between JV's first and second half of the season has me pumped for next season. And it really shows that even though Amir isn't the most talented player on the team, he's definitely been the teams MVP.

I dont get to go to many Raptors game because I live in Vancouver, but I did go to one January game with TO vs Minny - that is to say Amir against Kevin Love. Total disaster for KL, Amir just dominated him the whole game. I think Love had 9 points and 5 rebounds. Afterwards he said that he just had a bad game, no kudos for Amir. He's not real, Amir is. There are Lies, damn Lies and Statistics so I don't want to get too carried away but I really like the way these stats look.

[Buyckshot]

With Amir, what you say is true. He was backed up by Gray, Bargnani, Davis and Acy, all of whom performed poorly in terms of plus minus and adjusted plus minus. But Amir's history, even going back 3 or 4 years, if you look back at APM and RAPM, suggests that no matter who he plays with and against, he's just plain exceptional. I agree that the crazy numbers you see here will probably regress, but I have no doubt he'll still be best on the team.

Acy? His plus minus is awesome!

[DanH]

Acy? His plus minus is awesome!

Oops, well that's true but his total minutes compared to the others are so few that it means he had very little impact.

[thead]

Trade DeMar for expirings.

S&T Lowry + Rudy for 2014 picks, move forwards with Ross-JV core. Tank in 2014, snag Wiggins, Andrew Harrison and Dario Saric

Andrew Harrison-Ross-Wiggins-Saric-JV

Tank again in 2015, grab Jahil Okafor.

Harrison-Ross-Wiggins-Okafor-JV with Saric and others off the bench. Perfect championship contender for the future.

off topic

[Mr.Z]

Is there anyone else in the league who compares to Amir with these type of statistics or is he in a world of his own?