Signs Of Tanking?

[psrs1]

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=my29cga

Lol kinda came up with this for fun, not sure how realistic it is.

Celtics Get:
Charlie Villanueva
Landry Fields
Kyle Lowry
Terrence Ross
Raptors 2015 1st
Nuggets/Knicks 2016 1st

Pistons Get:
Rudy Gay
Brandon Bass
MarShon Brooks

Raptors Get:
Rajon Rondo
Rodney Stuckey
Courtney Lee
Greg Monroe


For Boston this sets them up perfectly to tank, while also freeing up the last year of Lee's contract in exchange for Fields'. They get three prospects as well with Ross and the 2 1st round picks. And Lowry could potentially be flipped again for a late 1st round pick from a team like the Lakers or maybe Houston if their two point guards don't work out.

For Detroit, this fixes the problem of having a frontcourt with 3 guys that can't shoot consistently from more than 10 feet. They get a near-star type player in Rudy Gay at the small forward position, without losing bigman depth since they're also acquiring Brandon Bass from Detroit. MarShon Brooks gives them another scorer off the bench with the loss of Stuckey.

For us, this is kind of a two-pronged move as it allows us to tank despite having several good players on the team already. Say Rondo is legitimately hurt. We shut him down for as long as possible and start one of Stuckey/Buycks/Augustin at the point for the remainder of the season. Couple that with Novak or Daye at the 2, and even with the addition of Monroe the team probably isn't going to win very many games. This would likely put us in position to have a high selection in the draft while still having 4 very talented players moving forwards (Rondo, DD, Monroe, Valanciunas). In the offseason, best-case scenario we get Andrew Wiggins and then match whatever offer is thrown out there for Greg Monroe. Leaving us with:

Rondo/Augustin
DeRozan/Lee
Wiggins/Novak
Monroe/Amir
Valanciunas/(Backup center)

You could also take advantage of the fact that Rondo was in and out of the lineup the previous season and try to use that as leverage to ink him to a below-market-value extension at the start of the 14-15 season.

Well thought out....it will never happen. Pistons are in love with Monroe.

[magoon]

As an aside, Chad Ford has his first top-30 for the 2014 draft, so if you don't know who's potentially in this class other than Wiggins, you might want to enjoy some light reading.

[Sam17]

wtf.. Kentucky is stacked next season. Is having seven potential first-round picks on your roster even fair?

[magoon]

After reading Zach Lowe's Bobcats article today, I believe even more strongly that a Rudy-to-Charlotte deal is very possible and, depending on how the season proceeds, even probable.

[JimiCliff]

After reading Zach Lowe's Bobcats article today, I believe even more strongly that a Rudy-to-Charlotte deal is very possible and, depending on how the season proceeds, even probable.

Seems like the kind of move Jordan would make.

If Rudy's eye surgery ups his shooting, I could see Masai setting his sights on MKG.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Seems like the kind of move Jordan would make.

If Rudy's eye surgery ups his shooting, I could see Masai setting his sights on MKG.

MKG definitely seems like a DC type of player. If the Raps could get at least one 1st round pick in addition to MKG and the expiring contract of Gordon, that wouldn't be a horrible deal to kickstart a retool/rebuild/tank. If you compare what the Raptors traded for Gay, to that type of return, then it's actually a pretty good deal in terms of players, picks and finances.

[Xixak]

MKG definitely seems like a DC type of player. If the Raps could get at least one 1st round pick in addition to MKG and the expiring contract of Gordon, that wouldn't be a horrible deal to kickstart a retool/rebuild/tank. If you compare what the Raptors traded for Gay, to that type of return, then it's actually a pretty good deal in terms of players, picks and finances.

Umm... that would be highway robbery.

Basically trading Jose Calderon + Ed Davis for #2 Pick, Lottery Pick, expiring.

I'm really not sure why Charlotte would even consider that unless MKG is looking awful.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Umm... that would be highway robbery.

Basically trading Jose Calderon + Ed Davis for #2 Pick, Lottery Pick, expiring.

I'm really not sure why Charlotte would even consider that unless MKG is looking awful.

The point is that if Charlotte decides to go all-in for a win-now approach (which the Jefferson signing reeks of), then there's no comparison between Gay and MKG in the present. Gay is the far superior talent, who also provides additional veteran presence for a young Bobcats team. Dumping Gordon (just to match salaries) and a 1st round pick (the real value for Toronto, in addition to another young asset in MKG) is likely what it would take to get the deal done. It's not like MKG set the world on fire last year, he definitely had his struggles and is very limited offensively.

The Memphis trade was as much a salary dump and addition-by-subtraction (Hollinger is such an advanced stats guy), but Toronto's motivations for making such a deal would be entirely different, so of course the required return would also differ accordingly.

Do I think this is plausible? Sure. Likely? Doubtful. I'm just playing along with the idea and see a trade that would seemingly fit the strategy that both teams are employing in that scenario; win-now for Charlotte and rebuild/tank for Toronto.

[p00ka]

After reading Zach Lowe's Bobcats article today, I believe even more strongly that a Rudy-to-Charlotte deal is very possible and, depending on how the season proceeds, even probable.

I didn't read anything in that article that points to Rudy being "very possible", never mind "probable". Aside from not seeing it in the article, with a new "defense first" coach, which is MKG's biggest strength, I can't see them giving up on him after 1 year, to take on what would be an unhappy Rudy at his price.

One of the more interesting things I did draw from that article (interesting how we see things that are more in line with what we want, eh. lol), is that one of the big benefits that the Bobcats see in having Jefferson is that he'll draw attention from defenses, enabling the young guys to develop without so much defensive pressure (you might say unlike what DD has been facing from defenses), exactly one of the benefits that the young Raps should get from having Rudy out there. That's to say that Rudy's value to the Raps isn't just his production, but how his presence further enables the young Raps development.

[JimiCliff]

MKG definitely seems like a DC type of player. If the Raps could get at least one 1st round pick in addition to MKG and the expiring contract of Gordon, that wouldn't be a horrible deal to kickstart a retool/rebuild/tank. If you compare what the Raptors traded for Gay, to that type of return, then it's actually a pretty good deal in terms of players, picks and finances.

I'd be ecstatic with Gay for MKG + Gordon straight up.

I'd be happy with Gay + any non-2014 1st round pick for MKG and Gordon.

[magoon]

Umm... that would be highway robbery.

Basically trading Jose Calderon + Ed Davis for #2 Pick, Lottery Pick, expiring.

I'm really not sure why Charlotte would even consider that unless MKG is looking awful.

Because Charlotte doesn't really care what we traded for Rudy (and frankly we paid more than they would in this scenario, unless they include both Detroit and Portland's picks). MKG isn't looking awful - he's pretty good defensively - but his offense is questionable to say the least, and the fact that he was a #2 pick doesn't mean anything now because everybody's had a year to see him play so the automatic upside #2s normally get is greatly reduced.

Or, to put it another way: a starting unit of Kemba/Henderson/Rudy/Jefferson/Zeller is much stronger than a unit of Kemba/Henderson/MKG/Jefferson/Zeller, because right now MKG's lack of offense lets teams double up the D on Jefferson without too much pain. Rudy instead of MKG means that teams can't double up on Big Al because there's a second credible scoring threat at all times on the floor.

[JimiCliff]

I didn't read anything in that article that points to Rudy being "very possible", never mind "probable". Aside from not seeing it in the article, with a new "defense first" coach, which is MKG's biggest strength, I can't see them giving up on him after 1 year, to take on what would be an unhappy Rudy at his price.

One of the more interesting things I did draw from that article (interesting how we see things that are more in line with what we want, eh. lol), is that one of the big benefits that the Bobcats see in having Jefferson is that he'll draw attention from defenses, enabling the young guys to develop without so much defensive pressure (you might say unlike what DD has been facing from defenses), exactly one of the benefits that the young Raps should get from having Rudy out there. That's to say that Rudy's value to the Raps isn't just his production, but how his presence further enables the young Raps development.

A very, very underrated aspect of what Rudy brings to the team.

[mcHAPPY]

After reading Zach Lowe's Bobcats article today, I believe even more strongly that a Rudy-to-Charlotte deal is very possible and, depending on how the season proceeds, even probable.

Thanks for posting magoon. I've long held the belief Charlotte is going to do whatever they can to win and make playoffs now - treadmill be damned. Given their horrible luck/opportunities the last 3 years I can see why they aren't enthusiastic about placing all the marbles in the lottery again.


For Raptor fans hoping for a tank - myself included - this is a great warning of possible outcome:

The Bobcats were getting worse on purpose, just as Boston and San Antonio did in the lead-up to the Tim Duncan lottery, just as the Sixers and Jazz are doing now, and just as other teams will do as long as the league uses a reverse-order lottery to determine draft order. It's a choice for which the organization won't apologize. "Our players then were only so good," says Rod Higgins, the team's president of basketball operations. "We went to the playoffs, and we were swept four straight. We had to move on."

"You just can't predict what's going to happen in the lottery," Higgins says. "We've been in the top three spots going in the last two years, and we've moved back both times. What does that tell you?"7

So after the franchise superstar talent did not emerge:

"Of course, we had discussions about those options," Higgins says. "We could have just sat on that money. But we've had a lot of losses over the last two years. We've gotten to the point now where we just want to compete. We have to send that message to our fans."

But a trade in that vein doesn't appear to be in the team's immediate plans, though Higgins, of course, cannot rule it out. "If there are opportunities to make this team better via trade, we will do that," he says.

So now they go down this route:

You can slowly build into something like the Nuggets of the last couple of seasons — a very strong team constructed around a bunch of sub-stars making between $6 million and $11 million per season. Amass a solid group of assets like that, and you're a killer trade or high-risk free-agency signing away from being the Pacers or the Grizzlies — a ho-hum bunch that suddenly finds itself a few wins away from the ring.10 Not every team can draft a top-10 overall player, or trade for one, and the Bobcats certainly aren't getting one in free agency. There isn't one such player for every team, and there won't be anything close to one per team as long as the league has a cap on individual player salaries.

There are other ways to compete, and to compete seriously. The problem is that it's unclear whether Charlotte's collection of young pieces can reach the required level for this path. There's no way it could be clear at this point, given the age of some of the key guys. But the early returns don't suggest a two-way force like Paul George, Hibbert, or Marc Gasol lurking among the youngsters here — not yet, anyway.

But the Bobcats at least have some options, and they should finally begin the recovery process from two years of almost unfathomable losing. The ceiling of the present group probably isn't as high as it needs to be, and the Bobcats likely could have pushed that ceiling higher by swallowing another awful season and maintaining cap room in the process.

It is a scary thought. Big difference between Charlotte and Toronto though is Charlotte started their rebuild with Gerald Henderson and Toronto is starting with Jonas Valanciunas. I am more than happy to 'tank' in the hopes of getting an All-Star talent next to JV. If things go as bad as they did for Charlotte, at least Toronto can work towards the Indiana/Memphis path with what looks to be a possible all-star C.


Any combination of Gay/Lowry that returns any combination of Walker/Biyombo/picks/Gordon would be fine by me.

[BobLoblaw]

MKG definitely seems like a DC type of player. If the Raps could get at least one 1st round pick in addition to MKG and the expiring contract of Gordon, that wouldn't be a horrible deal to kickstart a retool/rebuild/tank. If you compare what the Raptors traded for Gay, to that type of return, then it's actually a pretty good deal in terms of players, picks and finances.

That sounds greedy, although we never know. MKG was extremely up and down in his rookie year, but he still had stretches where he was a legit SF starter, not outmatched at all, which is impressive at his age. But then he'd have a horrific stretch where he looked like barely a backup, a poor man's Mbah a Moute. At his age though, I have to imagine that those "flashes" = a ton of value in the eyes of other GMs.

[BobLoblaw]

Thanks for posting magoon. I've long held the belief Charlotte is going to do whatever they can to win and make playoffs now - treadmill be damned. Given their horrible luck/opportunities the last 3 years I can see why they aren't enthusiastic about placing all the marbles in the lottery again.

I think Zach Lowe is jumping to conclusions there a little bit. There's a part in that article (somewhere near the start) where Lowe asks that maybe they are just "pretending" not to tank? Maybe they know that Al Jefferson isn't all that good, so they won't be historically bad, but still bad, still get a high lottery pick.

Then Lowe decides that no, they just got impatient. And that's because the Bobcats told him that they expect Al Jefferson to make them much better. But what else are the Bobcats going to say, they can't say "yeah, we know that Al Jefferson isn't that good, which is cool, we want another good pick."

In the end, this looks like a very deep draft at the top, it looks 7-8 great prospects deep. So if you are a small market team like Charlotte, it kind of makes sense to move away from extreme losing (the Bobcats had a 23 game losing streak last season, and 18 game streak this season) and sell some tickets but still get a high lotto pick.

We'll see I guess. I won't be surprised if they just wait the season out, no major moves, and pretend that they want to win.