Signs Of Tanking?

[mcHAPPY]

I think Zach Lowe is jumping to conclusions there a little bit. There's a part in that article (somewhere near the start) where Lowe asks that maybe they are just "pretending" not to tank? Maybe they know that Al Jefferson isn't all that good, so they won't be historically bad, but still bad, still get a high lottery pick.

Then Lowe decides that no, they just got impatient. And that's because the Bobcats told him that they expect Al Jefferson to make them much better. But what else are the Bobcats going to say, they can't say "yeah, we know that Al Jefferson isn't that good, which is cool, we want another good pick."

In the end, this looks like a very deep draft at the top, it looks 7-8 great prospects deep. So if you are a small market team like Charlotte, it kind of makes sense to move away from extreme losing (the Bobcats had a 23 game losing streak last season, and 18 game streak this season) and sell some tickets but still get a high lotto pick.

We'll see I guess. I won't be surprised if they just wait the season out, no major moves, and pretend that they want to win.

Just asking but did you notice in the three blocks of quotes I have the first two blocks are all quotes from Higgins?

When Charlotte had the Hornets, from Wiki:

Despite initial concerns that the Coliseum was too big, the Hornets were a runaway hit in their first season, leading the NBA in attendance, a feat they would achieve seven more times in Charlotte. Eventually, the Hornets would sell out 364 consecutive games—almost nine consecutive seasons.

This has been Charlotte attendance last 5 years:

Year: average/total

2009: 26th/28th
2010: 22nd/22nd
2011: 21st/21st
2012: 25th/25th
2013: 24th/24th
http://espn.go.com/nba/attendance


I really think with the 'new' name change they want to get some hype back in Charlotte for pro ball and rekindle the early '90s magic. Another lottery year is not going to help get the casual fan in the seats. But you are right, we'll see.

[BobLoblaw]

Just asking but did you notice in the three blocks of quotes I have the first two blocks are all quotes from Higgins?

I didn't actually re-read the quotes but I read that article so I assumed they are the same.

I think attendance is a major issue. Like I said, I think Al Jefferson move is about selling tickets and getting better. But does it mean that they are going to make further, drastic moves? Are they going to try to make the playoffs next year? Or are they content to stop being historically bad, sell some tickets and get another potential star in the draft?

Higgins will say what he has to say. If he wants to sell tickets, he can't say "our goal this year is to win 25-30 games and sell tickets."

If we learned anything from Charlotte's situation, it's that being the worst team in the league doesn't necessarily pay off. It does kill your attendance though. So how about be the 5th worst team in the league, stop being the joke of the league, still get a good pick and still have some chance to win the #1 pick? It's pretty attractive.

[Chr1s1anL]

Thanks for posting magoon. I've long held the belief Charlotte is going to do whatever they can to win and make playoffs now - treadmill be damned. Given their horrible luck/opportunities the last 3 years I can see why they aren't enthusiastic about placing all the marbles in the lottery again.


For Raptor fans hoping for a tank - myself included - this is a great warning of possible outcome:






So after the franchise superstar talent did not emerge:






So now they go down this route:





It is a scary thought. Big difference between Charlotte and Toronto though is Charlotte started their rebuild with Gerald Henderson and Toronto is starting with Jonas Valanciunas. I am more than happy to 'tank' in the hopes of getting an All-Star talent next to JV. If things go as bad as they did for Charlotte, at least Toronto can work towards the Indiana/Memphis path with what looks to be a possible all-star C.


Any combination of Gay/Lowry that returns any combination of Walker/Biyombo/picks/Gordon would be fine by me.

The thing is the raptors can be that Indiana/Memphis team now. Their our pieces on this team currently. Just need little smart, small moves.

[mcHAPPY]

The thing is the raptors can be that Indiana/Memphis team now. Their our pieces on this team currently. Just need little smart, small moves.

This is another well debated topic on the forums but I don't think Toronto is starting with the same talent base that Memphis and Indiana had nor the same financial flexibility (more so Indiana on f.f.).

[Chr1s1anL]

This is another well debated topic on the forums but I don't think Toronto is starting with the same talent base that Memphis and Indiana had nor the same financial flexibility (more so Indiana on f.f.).

Memphis is not that talent of a team. They just play really good D and really hard. Their is no reason with Casey's guidance that this team can not be a really good defense team. Offensive talent wise I believe we have more talent than Memphis.

[Xixak]

Memphis is not that talent of a team. They just play really good D and really hard. Their is no reason with Casey's guidance that this team can not be a really good defense team. Offensive talent wise I believe we have more talent than Memphis.

This is also a very valid point lol.... Memphis' players aren't exactly stars. In fact I'd argue that they don't really have a single true star on their team.

For all the lauding Gasol gets, he only put up 14 points and 8 rebounds last year on 49% shooting. You know who else put up those exact same numbers? Kevin Garnett. Except he averaged 15 points and shot 50% in less playing time. The guy is definitely not a star offensively, and we saw that in the playoffs where he shot < 40% against San Antonio which by any metric is atrocious for a center.

Zach Randolph is a very good power forward, although I really don't think he would qualify as a star last year. 15-11 on 46% shooting is nice but it's not something that really screams star to me when there are guys like David Lee, Aldridge, etc putting up way better numbers at the same position. Also Z-Bo was considered a horrible defender before going to Memphis.

Conley was getting a lot of hype during the playoffs because of how well the Grizzlies were doing, but let's be real. 14-6 is far from an elite PG. He's one of the best defenders at his position though, which is key.

Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince are obviously just great defensive role players that don't give you much on offense. Allen is probably the best defender in the league at the 2 (depending on whether you consider Paul George a two, and how you rank him among Bradley and George).


Ugh I already know Matt is going to point out how we don't have the exact same personnel as the Grizzlies, so I'm going to make this clear... I KNOW THAT WE DON'T MATT.

It is interesting that the Grizzlies were able to advance so far with 3 near-stars and 2 role players. And for all the talk about 3+D... Conley is good but not great at 36%, Tony Allen is actually terrible at 12.5% (he hardly shoots any though) and Prince shot 36.6% with the Grizzlies (but only 26% in the playoffs). Z-Bo and Gasol obviously are not even close to being reliable from that range.

There also isn't that much special about their bench. Bayless can occasionally go off and they have some nice backup bigs but nothing too crazy. Hollins deserves a lot of credit (in fact I think we should hire him lol, Rudy was talking about him on Twitter). He really put in an excellent defensive system, while keeping a team without too much offensive talent respectable offensively (17th in oRTG).

One comparison that is interesting to look at is Valanciunas to Marc Gasol. I'm not the biggest fan of per 36 numbers because generally a player's energy/motor will see a bit of a dropoff with increased minutes, but let's take a look.

Gasol: 14.5ppg, 8.0rpg, 4.1apg, 1.0spg, 1.8bpg, 49.4% FG, 84.8% FT, 19.5 PER, 55.9 TS%
Jonas: 13.5ppg, 9.0rpg, 1.1apg, 0.4spg, 1.9bpg, 55.7% FG, 78.9% FT, 15.6 PER, 61.9 TS%

One could argue that a rookie Valanciunas (21) is actually already comparable to Marc Gasol in his 5th season at 28 years of age. That is downright scary. I think Jonas' offensive ceiling is actually closer to the older Gasol with high teens to low 20s scoring and a TS% in the high 50s or low 60s. Obviously he has nowhere near the playmaking skills of either brother at this stage.

[mcHAPPY]

Memphis is not that talent of a team. They just play really good D and really hard. Their is no reason with Casey's guidance that this team can not be a really good defense team. Offensive talent wise I believe we have more talent than Memphis.

I always thought going hard consistently was a talent in and if itself.

Going to give Casey benefit of doubt on defence. Clearly in year one he was permitted to do things his way. Year 2 clearly there was a higher power influencing.

[mcHAPPY]

Memphis is not that talent of a team. They just play really good D and really hard. Their is no reason with Casey's guidance that this team can not be a really good defense team. Offensive talent wise I believe we have more talent than Memphis.

I forgot....

Offense not sure Raptors are better, just different areas of strength between 2 teams.

[Craiger]

It is a scary thought. Big difference between Charlotte and Toronto though is Charlotte started their rebuild with Gerald Henderson and Toronto is starting with Jonas Valanciunas. I am more than happy to 'tank' in the hopes of getting an All-Star talent next to JV. If things go as bad as they did for Charlotte, at least Toronto can work towards the Indiana/Memphis path with what looks to be a possible all-star C.

I think that is definetely a significant difference but there 3 other notable differences


1) Timing:

Charlotte started the tank late into the 20010/11 season (Feb 24/2011 Gerald Wallace for 2 first round pick + contracts) . They finished 10th in the east that year (drafted 9th I believe)

Then at the draft they moved up to 7th from their 19th pick by moving Stephen Jackson (and taking on Magette).

Then last year took on Gordon's albatross + pick for their expiring (Magette)

So they started tanking heading into a weak draft where they were going to be outside the top 5. Then tanked hard (worst team in NBA history) into a very good draft and took 2nd. Then last year went into another poor draft (2nd worst team) and drafted 4th.

2/3 of Charlottes draft so far are perhaps 2 of the 3 worst drafts in a decade+. They were expected to be bad. In one of them they had no shot at a top pick because of when they started tanking (late).

As opposed to Toronto who, if they started tanking this year, are going into a highly regarded draft and, if it holds true, another strong draft in 2015.

2) Future assets under control:

Charlotte may have 3 lottery picks this year (or in future years depending on results) between their own, Portlands (top 12 protected) and Detroits (top 8 protected) from previous moves. Toronto, as stands, has one additional pick in 2016 that is unlikely to be a lottery pick.

3) Real change at the top:

Higgins, just so happens to be the Bobcats former GM through their treadmill years (and Golden States before, and an assistant GM with the Wiz before that....... not exactly an exciting resume) and moved to president (*cough*) when Cho took over.

Atleast in Toronto, even if it was a bit more drawn out then people would have liked, the old regime was replaced.

I think given Jonas, the coming draft, the need for assets and having not only real management change but hopefully good management (rather than rewarding his yes men like Jordan has) gives alot more promise and reason to Toronto's potential tank.


But one thing that stood out to me like a sore thumb, even if it was a bit statement, was:

"We've been in the top three spots going in the last two years, and we've moved back both times. What does that tell you?"

That sometimes, no matter what the odds, you can role snake eyes twice in a row. If that forces you to change your plan, we have to question just how bad was your plan to start with. (Do you shove all your cash into a savings account because you bough stock in Blackberry and therefore think all you can do is lose money in the stock market?).

Bad management will make bad decisions, and at that point its really irrelevant what decisions/direction a team makes. Charlotte did a real good job of tanking (collecting assets while losing), but has done, what I'll generously call a questionable job with what to do with their proceeds. Which is what really matters in the end.

[mcHAPPY]

Good synopsis.

2) Future assets under control:

Charlotte may have 3 lottery picks this year (or in future years depending on results) between their own, Portlands (top 12 protected) and Detroits (top 8 protected) from previous moves. Toronto, as stands, has one additional pick in 2016 that is unlikely to be a lottery pick.

I would only point out that Charlotte's future assets were as a result of the decision to tank. We still don't know if that is Toronto's plan. I would hope that Toronto's current assets could return more than Jackson, Wallace, and Diaw. They let Felton walk for nothing, same with Augustine.

As for that 2016 pick, I am hoping they experience a shut down in free agency like they did in 2010. They are super old now and only guy under contract will be Hardaway, Jr. Denver can swap of course but I'm hoping for a flameout there too!

[Xixak]

That sometimes, no matter what the odds, you can role snake eyes twice in a row. If that forces you to change your plan, we have to question just how bad was your plan to start with. (Do you shove all your cash into a savings account because you bough stock in Blackberry and therefore think all you can do is lose money in the stock market?).

I don't like your analogy at the end. There's other options besides putting all that money in a savings account and cutting your losses, how about re-investing your money elsewhere? If the draft doesn't work out for you, you can start looking at ways to consolidate and acquire assets to improve the team.

[Xixak]

Good synopsis.



I would only point out that Charlotte's future assets were as a result of the decision to tank. We still don't know if that is Toronto's plan. I would hope that Toronto's current assets could return more than Jackson, Wallace, and Diaw. They let Felton walk for nothing, same with Augustine.

As for that 2016 pick, I am hoping they experience a shut down in free agency like they did in 2010. They are super old now and only guy under contract will be Hardaway, Jr. Denver can swap of course but I'm hoping for a flameout there too!

Who are you referring to here? The Knicks?

[Craiger]

Good synopsis.



I would only point out that Charlotte's future assets were as a result of the decision to tank. We still don't know if that is Toronto's plan. I would hope that Toronto's current assets could return more than Jackson, Wallace, and Diaw. They let Felton walk for nothing, same with Augustine.

As for that 2016 pick, I am hoping they experience a shut down in free agency like they did in 2010. They are super old now and only guy under contract will be Hardaway, Jr. Denver can swap of course but I'm hoping for a flameout there too!

I think I phrased that part poorly.

I was referring more to why it may make sense for Charlotte to stop tanking right now vs Toronto not tanking right now (Charlotte has collected those assets over time). I actually don't agree with it, but given the assets they have right now (picks + cap space) they are likely to have more opportunities to make a trade of significance than a team like Toronto is.

[Craiger]

I don't like your analogy at the end. There's other options besides putting all that money in a savings account and cutting your losses, how about re-investing your money elsewhere? If the draft doesn't work out for you, you can start looking at ways to consolidate and acquire assets to improve the team.

Maybe I phrased that poorly to, but thats not what I was talking about.

It was about going into an investment (ie. tanking) with only one mindset (ie. winning the draft) without fully realizing, or having the risk tolerance, that it may not work out.

To me it sounds like they were 'tanking for Davis', and when that didn't work out their entire plan was thrown off course. Thats bad management.

[Xixak]

Maybe I phrased that poorly to, but thats not what I was talking about.

It was about going into an investment (ie. tanking) with only one mindset (ie. winning the draft) without fully realizing, or having the risk tolerance, that it may not work out.

To me it sounds like they were 'tanking for Davis', and when that didn't work out their entire plan was thrown off course. Thats bad management.

What... how was their plan thrown off course?

Did they not just finish 2nd last in the NBA last season (if that's not tanking idk what is), and get Zeller with the 4th pick?

Charlotte has had:

2013: 4th Pick
2012: 2nd Pick
2011: 7th and 9th picks
2009: 12th Pick
2008: 9th Pick
2007: 8th Pick
2006: 3rd Pick
2005: 5th Pick
2004: 2nd Pick

And have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact they have zero drafted all-stars as well.

They basically tanked a decade and got nothing out of it.