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Signs Of Tanking?

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  • And Charlotte isn't the only example of just getting owned repeatedly by the draft/lottery.

    Minnesota (since Garnett's MVP season in 04)

    2005: 14th Pick
    2006: 7th Pick
    2007: 7th Pick
    2008: 4th Pick
    2009: 5th and 6th Picks
    2010: 4th Pick
    2011: 2nd Pick
    2013: 9th Pick (traded down to 14)

    Zero playoff appearances. One all-star appearance.

    Comment


    • Sacramento Kings (since last playoff appearance in 05-06 season).

      2007: 10th Pick
      2008: 12th Pick
      2009: 4th Pick
      2010: 5th Pick
      2011: 10th Pick
      2012: 5th Pick
      2013: 7th Pick

      Zero playoff appearances. Zero all-star appearances.

      Comment


      • Craiger wrote: View Post
        I think I phrased that part poorly.

        I was referring more to why it may make sense for Charlotte to stop tanking right now vs Toronto not tanking right now (Charlotte has collected those assets over time). I actually don't agree with it, but given the assets they have right now (picks + cap space) they are likely to have more opportunities to make a trade of significance than a team like Toronto is.
        Yes, I see.

        No doubt a trade of significance is more likely for them.

        I'm still holding on to the hope Toronto is their trade partner.

        Comment


        • Toronto Raptors

          2003: 4th Pick
          2004: 8th Pick
          2005: 7th Pick
          2006: 1st Pick
          2009: 9th Pick
          2010: 13th Pick
          2011: 5th Pick
          2012: 8th Pick

          1 all-star. 1 playoff appearance.

          Comment


          • Xixak wrote: View Post
            Toronto Raptors

            2003: 4th Pick
            2004: 8th Pick
            2005: 7th Pick
            2006: 1st Pick
            2009: 9th Pick
            2010: 13th Pick
            2011: 5th Pick
            2012: 8th Pick

            1 all-star. 1 playoff appearance.
            That 2011 pick should be an allstar one day. But still, a pretty pathetic 8 years.

            Comment


            • Nilanka wrote: View Post
              That 2011 pick should be an allstar one day. But still, a pretty pathetic 8 years.
              If anything it shows what your ceiling is with just one all-star type talent.

              Notice that 2007 and 2008 are missing?

              Raptors have the opportunity of a decade to take a step back in the here and now to go many steps forward with JV at the centre of things (literally and figuratively).

              Comment


              • The only active team that had a multi-season tank work out for them was OKC (unless you think the Warriors tanked to get Curry, Barnes and Klay... the latter two of whom are the 5th and 6th best players on the team).

                In fact looking at the 16 playoff teams, the only ones you could say built by tanking are as follows:

                Miami: (Wade 5th in 03)

                Chicago: (Rose 1st in 08... probably the luckiest #1 pick ever, I think they finished just outside the playoffs)

                OKC: (KD, Westbrook)

                Spurs: (Duncan... this was an accident. They had D-Robb who averaged 25-12 the previous season on their way to a 59-23 record. They also added Nique before that year who was still a high teens scorer. That team was set to win 50+ maybe 60 games if not for injuries

                Clippers: Blake #1 in 2009

                Comment


                • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  If anything it shows what your ceiling is with just one all-star type talent.

                  Notice that 2007 and 2008 are missing?

                  Raptors have the opportunity of a decade to take a step back in the here and now to go many steps forward with JV at the centre of things (literally and figuratively).
                  2007 is missing because the Raptors swapped prospects with the Bucks to fill a position of need (2nd year Villanueva for 3rd year TJ Ford).

                  Usually a team with a #4 Pick (Bosh), #8 Pick (Ford) and #1 Pick (Bargnani) all under 23 who appear to have star talent, isn't just going to keep tanking. Especially if with those 3 leading the way you win 47 games.

                  Comment


                  • Xixak wrote: View Post
                    What... how was their plan thrown off course?

                    Did they not just finish 2nd last in the NBA last season (if that's not tanking idk what is), and get Zeller with the 4th pick?

                    Charlotte has had:

                    2013: 4th Pick
                    2012: 2nd Pick
                    2011: 7th and 9th picks
                    2009: 12th Pick
                    2008: 9th Pick
                    2007: 8th Pick
                    2006: 3rd Pick
                    2005: 5th Pick
                    2004: 2nd Pick

                    And have zero playoff wins to show for it. In fact they have zero drafted all-stars as well.

                    They basically tanked a decade and got nothing out of it.
                    You are completely missing my point, but I'm not going to press it anymore.

                    As for the rest the Bobcats did not tank for a decade. They were an expansion franchise, and by nature 'rebuilding' immediately. Then they were prematurely fighting to make the playoffs (and did make it one year) until they realized that their team was going no where.

                    Don't confuse losing or not being successful with tanking - they are very different.

                    Comment


                    • Craiger wrote: View Post
                      You are completely missing my point, but I'm not going to press it anymore.

                      As for the rest the Bobcats did not tank for a decade. They were an expansion franchise, and by nature 'rebuilding' immediately. Then they were prematurely fighting to make the playoffs (and did make it one year) until they realized that their team was going no where.

                      Don't confuse losing or not being successful with tanking - they are very different.
                      Great points.

                      In reading the last few pages in this thread, a few other things have stood out to me, which really only serve to further muddy the water with regards to my own opinion on tanking.

                      All those draft history examples that Xixak pointed out, show just how big a difference there is between a top-3/top-5 pick and a lottery pick beyond the top-3/5. It shows the uncertainty of drafting and just how easily/quickly a team can get stuck in the dreaded 'treadmill' or 'false hope' situation.

                      Pro-tankers would take that fact as a reason to push even harder for tanking, especially in a deep draft year where difference makers should be available for the top 4-6 picks. Anti-tankers would take that fact as a reason why tanking is unproven, since there's no guarantee that the tank will be successful, or that the lottery balls will reward you (regardless of the 'success' of the tank).

                      If anything, I think it proves that the draft can be extremely valuable to long-term team building, especially if you have one/multiple top-3/5 draft picks. However, given the uncertainty of the draft lottery and the uncertainty of the player you draft (several 'bust' picks in hindsight in those examples Xixak provided were widely considered 'good' and/or 'safe' picks at the time), the most effective, sustainable team building strategy should be one that doesn't rely solely on the draft to be successful.

                      Comment


                      • Craiger wrote: View Post
                        You are completely missing my point, but I'm not going to press it anymore.

                        As for the rest the Bobcats did not tank for a decade. They were an expansion franchise, and by nature 'rebuilding' immediately. Then they were prematurely fighting to make the playoffs (and did make it one year) until they realized that their team was going no where.

                        Don't confuse losing or not being successful with tanking - they are very different.
                        Might be different mentalities, but the end result is the same... High draft picks. Intentional or not Charlotte got 9 top 10 picks and 5 top 5 picks in a decade and nothing to show for it.

                        Comment


                        • Xixak wrote: View Post
                          Might be different mentalities, but the end result is the same... High draft picks. Intentional or not Charlotte got 9 top 10 picks and 5 top 5 picks in a decade and nothing to show for it.
                          I think you've hit on 2 distinct discussions.

                          One is the difference between tanking and being naturally bad, or bad as a result of injuries - intent.

                          The trade deadline adds another dimension, where a team that was honestly competing decides that they're a 'seller', so they make a trade. Most trade deadline trades are definitely not a swap of equal current talent, but rather a swap of better 'now' talent (from the seller to buyer) for better 'later' talent (from buyer to seller, in terms of any combination of draft picks, young players and improved financial flexibility). I've been wondering if that approach, which is common every year in every major sport, isn't actually a widely accepted form of mid-season tanking?

                          The second is the issue of scouting/drafting prowess. That's a whole other issue that could (and has) filled threads on its own!

                          Comment


                          • Xixak wrote: View Post
                            Might be different mentalities, but the end result is the same... High draft picks. Intentional or not Charlotte got 9 top 10 picks and 5 top 5 picks in a decade and nothing to show for it.
                            They just made poor selections (in obvious hindsight), but they definitely had the opportunity to turn their franchise around.

                            2004: Picked Okafor 2nd - Could've picked Deng or Iguodala
                            2005: Picked Felton 5th & May 13th - Could've picked Bynum, Granger, or Lee
                            2006: Picked Morrison 3rd - Could've picked Roy or Gay
                            2007: Picked Wright 8th - Could've picked Noah
                            2008: Picked Augustin 9th - Could've picked B.Lopez or Hibbert
                            2009: Picked Henderson 12th - Could've picked Holiday or Lawson
                            2011: Picked Walker 9th - Could've picked K.Thompson or K.Leonard
                            2012: Picked MKG 2nd - Could've picked Beal, Lillard or Barnes

                            Getting top picks is only half the story. The other half is having a competent management/scouting department.

                            Comment


                            • Xixak wrote: View Post
                              Might be different mentalities, but the end result is the same... High draft picks. Intentional or not Charlotte got 9 top 10 picks and 5 top 5 picks in a decade and nothing to show for it.
                              2012: MKG
                              2011: Kemba, Biyombo
                              2010: picks traded away (it got Minnesota Luke Babbitt)
                              2009: Gerald Henderson
                              2008: DJ Augustin (mostly a bust)
                              2007: Brandan Wright, Jared Dudley (Wright traded away for Jason Richardson; Dudley traded WITH Richardson and pick for Boris Diaw + crap)
                              2006: Adam Morrison (enormous bust)
                              2005: Raymond Felton (left because Charlotte was hopeless), Sean May (bust)
                              2004: Emeka Okafor (trraded in 2009 for Tyson Chandler, who the Bobcats then traded away for nothing)

                              Put this another way: say you had a team, right now, just composed of Bobcats picks since 2004.

                              PG: Kemba, Felton, Augustin
                              SG: Henderson, Dudley
                              SF: MKG,
                              PF: Okafor, Wright
                              C: Biyombo, Zeller

                              That's honestly pretty close to a playoff team right there. It's lean at small forward, obviously, and it probably tops out at 7-8 seed without the star player Charlotte's never really had. But Charlotte kept trading away valuable and promising assets for win-now. Look how well that worked out.

                              Comment


                              • Craiger wrote: View Post
                                You are completely missing my point, but I'm not going to press it anymore.

                                As for the rest the Bobcats did not tank for a decade. They were an expansion franchise, and by nature 'rebuilding' immediately. Then they were prematurely fighting to make the playoffs (and did make it one year) until they realized that their team was going no where.

                                Don't confuse losing or not being successful with tanking - they are very different.
                                Good points. Relating to the post bosh Raptors really only tanked in two seasons. 2011 went according to plan. 2012 they overachieved which was unfortunate.

                                The last line in quote ties in to the point I was making above about 2007/08. The raptors weren't tanking. They were poorly run - which is easy to proclaim in hindsight but a number of people around here were right at the time, I ws not one. Once they extended Vosh and TJ they had little to no room to manoeuvre. A ceiling was set and reached in very short time. I feel current Raptor squad is in similar position but with older core pieces (gay/Lowry) and cap killing contracts with much less value (dd/fields/gay).

                                Comment

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