Signs Of Tanking?

[Xixak]

How do you get $20M? The salary cap is at $58M.. let's say by 2016 it's $60M (and even then its unlikely). If Gay and Lowry make $25M and you add that to DeRozan, JV, Ross, Acy and Novak you will have a roster that makes roughly $48M. That leaves only $12M to work with and only 7 players on the team. Still need 5 more to fill out the bench and no MLE since you are below the cap.

Actually the projected salary cap is increasing to 62M for 2014-15

Larry Coon @LarryCoon

Confirming @ESPNSteinLine tweet -- league's projected cap/tax for 2013-14 is currently $58.5M & $71.6M. For 2014-15 it's $62.1M & $75.7M.

And will go up by 2016, and Acy has a team option so we wouldn't NEED to pick that up, same with Ross if he keeps sucking.

Gay - 15M
Lowry - 10M
DD - 9.5M
JV - 4.6M
Ross - 3.5M
Novak - 3.5M

That's 46.1M with Novak and 42.6M without him. So about 20M cap space even if it doesn't increase from 62.1M in 2015-16 which is BS because it obviously would to accommodate for rising player salary.

[planetmars]

Actually the projected salary cap is increasing to 62M for 2014-15



And will go up by 2016, and Acy has a team option so we wouldn't NEED to pick that up, same with Ross if he keeps sucking.

Gay - 15M
Lowry - 10M
DD - 9.5M
JV - 4.6M
Ross - 3.5M
Novak - 3.5M

That's 46.1M with Novak and 42.6M without him. So about 20M cap space even if it doesn't increase from 62.1M in 2015-16 which is BS because it obviously would to accommodate for rising player salary.

Okay.. if the cap goes up to $62M and they are able to trade Novak for an expiring contract that expires at the end of 2015 then yeah they will have $20M.. but they will also most likely have a few draft picks on their roster from 2014 and 2015 (both potentially a first round and second round).. plus they would have to replace Amir with a capable PF and still fill out the bench. It seems like a lot of dough, but they won't be able to get a max contract or enough all-star talent that I think can make them contenders.

In other words I don't think Lowry @ $10M or DD @ $9.5M are worth it for their production. Gay I will gladly take for $14M or under.

[Xixak]

Okay.. if the cap goes up to $62M and they are able to trade Novak for an expiring contract that expires at the end of 2015 then yeah they will have $20M..

None of that is unrealistic. And the cap will likely be HIGHER than $62M that year, probably closer to $65M

but they will also most likely have a few draft picks on their roster from 2014 and 2015 (both potentially a first round and second round).. plus they would have to replace Amir with a capable PF and still fill out the bench. It seems like a lot of dough, but they won't be able to get a max contract or enough all-star talent that I think can make them contenders.

Yes they will have mid-round picks making 1M apiece. Let's just account for those and say we have them. Now that's a 44M payroll so anywhere from 18-21M in cap space with Gay, Lowry, DD, JV, Ross, 2014 Pick and the 2015 pick for a total of 7 rotation players on the roster (possibly more with 2nds). 18-21M is enough to get add a max guy and another guy for 3-5M, giving us at least 9 ROTATION level players. The last 6 players do not need to be proven commodities, they can be undervalued young guys or undrafted prospects like we had this year.

In other words I don't think Lowry @ $10M or DD @ $9.5M are worth it for their production. Gay I will gladly take for $14M or under.

I didn't even mention whether Lowry, DD or Gay are worth that money and it's irrelevant to the discussion. Lowry likely wouldn't even get 10M because the market for PGs has basically dried up (the only other team that would have the room to sign him and the desire to upgrade at PG for that kind of price tag is maybe Milwaukee). Gay likely will get a deal worth slightly more per year than Iguodala's.

Bold.

[Fully]

Where did you find the projected salary cap numbers for 2014-15?

Edit: And where did you find that it's supposed to even go up even further to $65 million? If that's what they are expecting, why didn't they just make that the projection instead of $62 million?

2nd edit: Found the tweet about the $62.1 in 2014-15.

[Xixak]

Where did you find the projected salary cap numbers for 2014-15?

Edit: And where did you find that it's supposed to even go up even further to $65 million? If that's what they are expecting, why didn't they just make that the projection instead of $62 million?

Larry Coon @LarryCoon

Confirming @ESPNSteinLine tweet -- league's projected cap/tax for 2013-14 is currently $58.5M & $71.6M. For 2014-15 it's $62.1M & $75.7M.

I already posted this quotation. 62.1M is the projection for the 2014-15 season (so 2014 FA up until the end of the 2015 playoffs). I was just thinking if it increases 3.6M from 13-14 to 14-15 that COULD happen again, not saying it would.

[planetmars]

I already posted this quotation. 62.1M is the projection for the 2014-15 season (so 2014 FA up until the end of the 2015 playoffs). I was just thinking if it increases 3.6M from 13-14 to 14-15 that COULD happen again, not saying it would.

One of the problems with early projections is that it may not actually happen.. the prediction was that the cap this year was going to go up to $60M and it stayed about the same (I believe it only went up $500K). So the cap might stay around the same next season and again the following season.

Hopefully the NBA does well this season (the Spurs/Heat series should hopefully have created more revenue overall) so that the cap does go up by $3M - although if I was a betting man, I would think the cap would be about $60M or less next season.

[Fully]

One thing I will say is if BC hadn't completely blown the 2012 pick by taking Ross over Drummond I don't think anyone would be advocating for a tank right now. That being said let's take a look at Indiana.

2010-2011:
The Pacers only have one player who's anything close to being a star, Danny Granger who puts up 21ppg on 43% shooting from the field. They also have an up and coming young bigman in Hibbert (13ppg 8rpg on 46%) and a rookie Paul George who looked somewhat promising but didn't exactly scream star (8ppg 4rpg in 21mpg on 45%). They went 37-45, finished 8th and got throttled by the Bulls in the 1st round.

2011-2012:
Now instead of blowing up the roster and tanking the Pacers looked to add another near-star to their core in David West via FA. He had put up 19-8 the previous season for a decent (46-36) Hornets team, but clearly wanted out because of the CP3 trade rumours. They also acquired George Hill in exchange for the 15th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft which gave them a better player at point guard. Indiana had a more balanced attack the next season. With Vogel taking over full-time they had a top 10 offense and defense and George and Hibbert made some improvements to their games. This allowed them to finish 3rd in the east at 42-24 and challenge Miami in the second round.

2012-2013
An injury to Granger gave Paul George more room to develop and he became an all-star caliber player in his 3rd season. Indiana improved defensively thanks to Hill's defense at PG and Hibbert's development into one of the NBA's best rim protectors. They were able to push Miami to the brink without Granger.

2013-2014
The Pacers expect to bring back Granger, improving their lineup further. And also took advantage of capped out and rebuilding teams to add CJ watson, Chris copeland and Luis Scola to their bench.

Who is the Raptors version of David West or Paul George?

[Xixak]

Who is the Raptors version of David West or Paul George?

I wasn't even comparing the Raptors and Pacers. I was just pointing out a team that never tanked and was still very successful.

[Letter N]

I wasn't even comparing the Raptors and Pacers. I was just pointing out a team that never tanked and was still very successful.

You should change your avatar to this

[mcHAPPY]

Idk how many times I have to say this. But even if we re-sign Gay and Lowry for 15M a year and 10M a year respectively (which is probably a high estimate), we would still have around 20M in cap space or more to play with in 2016 with Gay, Lowry, DD, Valanciunas, Ross and Novak on the books. Moving Novak's expiring deal could free up even more space.

What if Gay wants and is given more elsewhere? What if Gay picks up his 2014-15 option?

What if Lowry wants and is given more elsewhere?

What about PF? Amir is gone I assume?

No first round picks signed?

What about depth? Do you not recall last season?

What about age? Two of your main guys are going to be 29 in two seasons. I'm not sure what happens to Gay when his athleticism declines.

And I don't know how many times I have to say this but: teams enter a tank wishing to obtain a player like Valanciunas. The Raptors already have him and have the right to lock him up for a minimum of 4 years and a much more likely 8 years. With a strong top end draft, the ability to sign a max player in 2015 before JV's extension kicks in, and some pieces that may have value to teams trying to make the playoffs now at all costs (Detroit, Charlotte, Cleveland), there has never been a better time to tank than now.

One thing I will say is if BC hadn't completely blown the 2012 pick by taking Ross over Drummond I don't think anyone would be advocating for a tank right now. That being said let's take a look at Indiana.

2010-2011:
The Pacers only have one player who's anything close to being a star, Danny Granger who puts up 21ppg on 43% shooting from the field. They also have an up and coming young bigman in Hibbert (13ppg 8rpg on 46%) and a rookie Paul George who looked somewhat promising but didn't exactly scream star (8ppg 4rpg in 21mpg on 45%). They went 37-45, finished 8th and got throttled by the Bulls in the 1st round.

2011-2012:
Now instead of blowing up the roster and tanking the Pacers looked to add another near-star to their core in David West via FA. He had put up 19-8 the previous season for a decent (46-36) Hornets team, but clearly wanted out because of the CP3 trade rumours. They also acquired George Hill in exchange for the 15th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft which gave them a better player at point guard. Indiana had a more balanced attack the next season. With Vogel taking over full-time they had a top 10 offense and defense and George and Hibbert made some improvements to their games. This allowed them to finish 3rd in the east at 42-24 and challenge Miami in the second round.

2012-2013
An injury to Granger gave Paul George more room to develop and he became an all-star caliber player in his 3rd season. Indiana improved defensively thanks to Hill's defense at PG and Hibbert's development into one of the NBA's best rim protectors. They were able to push Miami to the brink without Granger.

2013-2014
The Pacers expect to bring back Granger, improving their lineup further. And also took advantage of capped out and rebuilding teams to add CJ watson, Chris copeland and Luis Scola to their bench.

Problem is BC did not take Drummond and the only thing it would have done was create a JV/Drummond debate unless one of them was packaged for a trade.

Hey are you talking about Indiana? Not sure where the Raptors find a 20 year old future all-star other than the draft with the overwhelming odds in the lottery.

Actually the projected salary cap is increasing to 62M for 2014-15



And will go up by 2016, and Acy has a team option so we wouldn't NEED to pick that up, same with Ross if he keeps sucking.

Gay - 15M
Lowry - 10M
DD - 9.5M
JV - 4.6M
Ross - 3.5M
Novak - 3.5M

That's 46.1M with Novak and 42.6M without him. So about 20M cap space even if it doesn't increase from 62.1M in 2015-16 which is BS because it obviously would to accommodate for rising player salary.

Projections are a funny thing because they mean nothing. The cap was projected to be $60M this season. Whoops.

And if you are trying to round out a roster with 8 more players you definitely pick up the guy with the $915k option.

I wasn't even comparing the Raptors and Pacers. I was just pointing out a team that never tanked and was still very successful.

I could of sworn you were talking about the Pacers above.

You should change your avatar to this

Priceless.

[Xixak]

What if Gay wants and is given more elsewhere? What if Gay picks up his 2014-15 option?

He wont pick up the option unless he gets injured or plays awfully (like way worse than last year). Players always go for guaranteed years over guaranteed money in one year (look at Iguodala, Kirilenko, etc)

What if Lowry wants and is given more elsewhere?

Unlikely, how many teams need a starting PG?

What about PF? Amir is gone I assume?

Yes he's gone but he could be re-signed depending on how the rest of free agency works out.

No first round picks signed?

What about depth? Do you not recall last season?

Dealt with that in the 2nd post. Would have 2 1st round picks. We would also be able to have 9 rotation players, which is very solid.

What about age? Two of your main guys are going to be 29 in two seasons. I'm not sure what happens to Gay when his athleticism declines.

Players don't fall off a cliff athletically at 29. And by that time we would be looking at having a contender based on what I posted.

And I don't know how many times I have to say this but: teams enter a tank wishing to obtain a player like Valanciunas. The Raptors already have him and have the right to lock him up for a minimum of 4 years and a much more likely 8 years. With a strong top end draft, the ability to sign a max player in 2015 before JV's extension kicks in, and some pieces that may have value to teams trying to make the playoffs now at all costs (Detroit, Charlotte, Cleveland), there has never been a better time to tank than now.

How do you plan to make this team worse than Utah, Phoenix, Orlando, Charlotte, Sacramento, etc?



Problem is BC did not take Drummond and the only thing it would have done was create a JV/Drummond debate unless one of them was packaged for a trade.

Lol

Hey are you talking about Indiana? Not sure where the Raptors find a 20 year old future all-star other than the draft with the overwhelming odds in the lottery.

Umm isn't that what Jonas is supposed to be?

Projections are a funny thing because they mean nothing. The cap was projected to be $60M this season. Whoops.

That's great bro. You're also trying to project getting a star playing next to Jonas, when there is like a 5% chance of that actually happening (I did some probability calculations in another thread, can't remember where)

And if you are trying to round out a roster with 8 more players you definitely pick up the guy with the $915k option.

Maybe you do, that is if he's being useful. Not sure how this matters.

I could of sworn you were talking about the Pacers above.

Yes I was talking about the Pacers, but where did I compare them to the Raptors? I was just giving an example of a team that successfully built a contender without tanking. In fact they don't even have any top 5 picks on their roster.



Priceless.

Indeed

.

[Xixak]

And don't get me wrong. The strategy I posted isn't the only effective one, in fact it may not be the best one either.

I'm not opposed to trading Gay or Lowry. What I am opposed to is trading them for the sole purpose of tanking, rather than trading them with the intention of getting better.

[DanH]

Just as a note, when discussing cap room, always remember to factor in roster slot cap holds. So you're looking at an additional almost $3M in cap space eaten up if you only have 6-7 players on the roster. So that 18 M in space becomes more like 15 M - which is not enough for a true max salary player that year (it is barely enough for a 6 year vet maximum).

[Xixak]

Just as a note, when discussing cap room, always remember to factor in roster slot cap holds. So you're looking at an additional almost $3M in cap space eaten up if you only have 6-7 players on the roster. So that 18 M in space becomes more like 15 M - which is not enough for a true max salary player that year (it is barely enough for a 6 year vet maximum).

I'm assuming renounced cap holds.

[DanH]

I'm assuming renounced cap holds.

Literally impossible.