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Thread: ESPN 5-on-5: Rudy Gay most Overrated Small Forward.

  1. #141
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    defensive win share needs to be adjusted for minutes.

    If you had 2 perfectly identical players and player A played 1000 minutes and player B played 2000 minutes, player B would have 2x the defensive winshare of player A.
    It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.

  2. #142
    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    Are you sure you are talking about Paul George btw? Like, everything in bold is wrong, unless you mean somebody else.
    Nope Paul George and I was wrong on his field goal percentage its 41% still not good at any means the average for wing players is 42-44%

    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/paul_george/index.html

  3. #143
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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.
    My issue with comparing stats of Player A, on Team A, with stats of Player B, on Team B, is that virtually every stat is affected by teammates, team style/coaching, amongst a list of many other factors as long as my leg.

    A few recent examples to highlight just a little of the point:
    - Carlos Boozer: he moves from Utah to Chicago and his stats drop across the board, including a big drop in FG% from 56% to 51%,,,,,, except for DRtg. Does that mean that he's suddenly a worse player, except for D, or are his stats greatly affected by the team, style of play, and his teammates?
    - Ryan Anderson: moves from Magic to NOLA and shooting percentages drop to lowest in 4 years, rebounding drops, ORtg plunges and DRtg shoots up. He's falling, or he's affected by team/teammates?
    Gortat: Nash & Hill leave, stats drop across the board, including the worst rebounding/36 in his career. He's worse, or affected by team play?
    Paul Pierce: In his
    3rd year his FG% 45, 3P% 38
    4th year his FG% 44, 3P% 40
    5th year his FG% 41, 3P% 30
    6th year his FG% 40, 3P% 30
    Was he getting worse over 2 years, or something else? It would seem something else, because his percentages shot up again in his 7th year.

  4. #144
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.
    How much is 'heavily'? WS does adjust for drtg, but does that mean its 1) a bad thing compared to not adjusting and 2) enough to make the statistic wrong/not worthwhile using/not relative enough?


    Interestingly enough Boozer has had a DRTG higher than his each of his teams, and every single year, since entering the league (note this is an enourmous sample size - 11 seasons, 714 games and over 23,000 minutes with numerous different teammates both good and bad) This would indicate that he has had a positive effect on his team's defense (atleast compared to an average teammate), and has therefore been a 'good' defender.

    Perhaps the problem isn't with defensive win share, so much as it is a perception of the player himself.

    PS. I will point out, that once DWS is adjusted for minutes played, his ranking will drop dramatically although his impact will stay the same.
    Last edited by Craiger; Thu Aug 8th, 2013 at 06:26 PM.

  5. #145
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    How much is 'heavily'? WS does adjust for drtg, but does that mean its 1) a bad thing compared to not adjusting and 2) enough to make the statistic wrong/not worthwhile using/not relative enough?


    Interestingly enough Boozer has had a DRTG higher than his each of his teams, and every single year, since entering the league (note this is an enourmous sample size - 11 seasons, 714 games and over 23,000 minutes with numerous different teammates both good and bad) This would indicate indicate that he has had a positive effect on his team's defense, and has therefore been a 'good' defender.

    Perhaps the problem isn't with defensive win share, so much as it is a perception of the player himself.
    Defensive rating and defensive win shares are basically the same stat, btw. Defensive win shares are nothing but defensive rating adjusted for player's total minutes / possessions.

    The impact of teammates is huge. It is heavy enough to cause many bad defensive players have strong defensive win shares, as long as they are on good defensive teams. DJ Augustin has stronger WS/48 numbers than Jrue Holiday or Rubio for example. All you really have to do is look at the list of all players by win shares / WS48 / pr defensive rating, and you'll find a ton of these examples.

    That said, WS / defensive rating aren't completely useless stats. At the very least, they show that