A few recent examples to highlight just a little of the point:
- Carlos Boozer: he moves from Utah to Chicago and his stats drop across the board, including a big drop in FG% from 56% to 51%,,,,,, except for DRtg. Does that mean that he's suddenly a worse player, except for D, or are his stats greatly affected by the team, style of play, and his teammates?
- Ryan Anderson: moves from Magic to NOLA and shooting percentages drop to lowest in 4 years, rebounding drops, ORtg plunges and DRtg shoots up. He's falling, or he's affected by team/teammates?
Gortat: Nash & Hill leave, stats drop across the board, including the worst rebounding/36 in his career. He's worse, or affected by team play?
Paul Pierce: In his
3rd year his FG% 45, 3P% 38
4th year his FG% 44, 3P% 40
5th year his FG% 41, 3P% 30
6th year his FG% 40, 3P% 30
Was he getting worse over 2 years, or something else? It would seem something else, because his percentages shot up again in his 7th year.
Interestingly enough Boozer has had a DRTG higher than his each of his teams, and every single year, since entering the league (note this is an enourmous sample size - 11 seasons, 714 games and over 23,000 minutes with numerous different teammates both good and bad) This would indicate that he has had a positive effect on his team's defense (atleast compared to an average teammate), and has therefore been a 'good' defender.
Perhaps the problem isn't with defensive win share, so much as it is a perception of the player himself.
PS. I will point out, that once DWS is adjusted for minutes played, his ranking will drop dramatically although his impact will stay the same.
Last edited by Craiger; Thu Aug 8th, 2013 at 06:26 PM.
The impact of teammates is huge. It is heavy enough to cause many bad defensive players have strong defensive win shares, as long as they are on good defensive teams. DJ Augustin has stronger WS/48 numbers than Jrue Holiday or Rubio for example. All you really have to do is look at the list of all players by win shares / WS48 / pr defensive rating, and you'll find a ton of these examples.
That said, WS / defensive rating aren't completely useless stats. At the very least, they show that a player was featured in strong defensive lineups, which is valuable info. If someone tells you that DJ Augustin = bad team defense, you can point to these numbers and say, no, maybe he doesn't help, but it's possible to hide him to a degree.
Also, in general, there's a correlation between good defenders and good defensive rating / defensive win shares. 7 or 8 times of 10, those numbers will reflect solid individual defense.
Last edited by BobLoblaw; Thu Aug 8th, 2013 at 06:55 PM.
In Deng's 1st season the Bulls had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.6
Deng's DWS: 5.6
Last year's Pacers had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.8
George's DWS: 6.3
So it's safe to say based ONLY on that (obviously other things like the eye-test are important), that George is a slightly better defender than LD was in his 3rd season.
So I'll ask again, what makes George significantly better than 3rd year Deng? I'd actually argue that Deng was better due to his FAR SUPERIOR offensive volume and efficiency. Both teams (06-07 Bulls and 12-13 Pacers) won 49 games as well, so you can't say it's because either player was on a better or worse team either.
Here's a 2012 example, using that logic. Chicago and Boston were similar defensive teams in 2012. Boozer and KG had near identical defensive rating and DWS. Therefore, it's safe to say that Boozer and KG were similar defenders.
5 minutes of tape is better than that.
George is so ahead of the curve defensively, that it's ridiculous. He is far better than a young Deng or for that matter Iggy (on the defensive end). George's defensive footwork and help defense might be the best among all wings in the league, right now.
I just don't know if he can still improve on the defensive end, he's so good already. He needs to add some strength, but won't he lose some of the quickness? If he can still improve as a defender, we might be looking at a generational wing defender, a la Moncrief, Cooper, Payton, Artest. It will be interesting where he goes from here, to say the least.
As for Deng, early in his career, Deng wasn't all that great. He was solid defensively because of his length and effort, but far from elite.
Last edited by BobLoblaw; Thu Aug 8th, 2013 at 11:26 PM. Reason: forgetting "that" really does change the meaning of a sentence sometimes..
It's really unfair to use effective field-goal percentage to evaluate a player that gets to the line as much as DeRozan.
TS% is a lot more fair to use for him, and yes even according to that he's slightly below average.
So I assume only analysis that supports one's view should be used by everyone?
DeRozan only does one thing. Whether it is below average (eFG%) or a smidge below average (TS%), when you only do one thing, you don't want to be average at it.
Getting to the free throw line a lot should factor into scoring efficiency, which is why I think True Shooting Percentage is the better metric because it incorporates the fact that 3s are worth more than 2s, and also incorporates free throw shooting into the calculation. Points / (2 * FGA + FTA * 0.44)
I'm not trying to suggest that DeRozan is an efficient scorer or used biased statistics. It's pretty universally accepted that TS% is a better measure of efficiency than eFG% for the reasons I stated.
This seems to have gotten off topic from Rudy Gay, but either way...
I found this article a while back, and have spent all morning looking for it.. found it.
The Blog (I think its a blog?) is Escobar on NBA, and I highly recommend you give this a read in its entirety.
In it, they not only break down the Problems with eFG%,
and True Shooting %,Escobar on NBA wrote:
they also offer their own solution to this problem by creating the Weighted Field Goal %,Escobar on NBA wrote:
They follow it up the next day with some comments and criticisms, but for the most part, I think its pretty solid.Escobar on NBA wrote:
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