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ESPN 5-on-5: Rudy Gay most Overrated Small Forward.

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  • Xixak wrote: View Post
    Than George? I don't think so man.

    George does almost everything better. I'd say Gay is a more versatile scorer and has been more efficient up until last season, but there's not much else he has on PG.
    Rebounding would be a toss up. He pass ball better but, at the rate he gets turnovers. I don't know of I would give him the edge there. He does show more commitment on D.
    @Chr1st1anL

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    • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
      Rebounding would be a toss up. He pass ball better but, at the rate he gets turnovers. I don't know of I would give him the edge there. He does show more commitment on D.
      Rebounding is close but its still in George's favour (11.3% vs 10.2%).

      George's assist %19.6 vs TO% 15.2 > Gay's Assist% 13.6 vs 12.5 TO% (1.3 vs 1.1)

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      • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
        Rebounding would be a toss up. He pass ball better but, at the rate he gets turnovers. I don't know of I would give him the edge there. He does show more commitment on D.
        Dude i like Rudy, but let's just be real here.

        George averaged 7.6rpg last year, Rudy averaged 6.1rpg. Both players get about the same minutes. That's not a wash. Rudy is slightly above average for a starting SF, George is close to elite for a SF as only Aminu, KD and LBJ were better than him at SF rebounding last year.

        You mentioned turnovers but Rudy Gay turns it over almost as much as George (2.6 to 2.9) but averages less assists (2.7 to 4.1). So his assist-turnover ratio (1.04) is lower than George's (1.41)

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        • Xixak wrote: View Post
          Luol Deng has always been considered an elite defender. I mean he was 5th in the league in DWS that year, and his length and versatility allow him to guard 3 sometimes 4 positions.

          George had a mediocre 1st month yeah, but he also played poorly after the ASB, and terribly towards the end of the season. His play was relatively consistent throughout the year though. I wouldn't say he was a different player, he was about the same guy for 60+ games.
          60 games, yes. Beginning of the season, no.

          Deng was not considered an elite defender early in his career. And George is arguably a better defender than current Deng.

          Btw, defensive win shares are a heavily team dependent stat. Carlos Boozer was top 5 in defensive win shares last year.

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          • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
            60 games, yes. Beginning of the season, no.

            Deng was not considered an elite defender early in his career. And George is arguably a better defender than current Deng.

            Btw, defensive win shares are a heavily team dependent stat. Carlos Boozer was top 5 in defensive win shares last year.
            defensive win share needs to be adjusted for minutes.

            If you had 2 perfectly identical players and player A played 1000 minutes and player B played 2000 minutes, player B would have 2x the defensive winshare of player A.

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            • Craiger wrote: View Post
              defensive win share needs to be adjusted for minutes.

              If you had 2 perfectly identical players and player A played 1000 minutes and player B played 2000 minutes, player B would have 2x the defensive winshare of player A.
              It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.

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              • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                Are you sure you are talking about Paul George btw? Like, everything in bold is wrong, unless you mean somebody else.
                Nope Paul George and I was wrong on his field goal percentage its 41% still not good at any means the average for wing players is 42-44%

                http://www.nba.com/playerfile/paul_george/index.html

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                • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                  It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.
                  My issue with comparing stats of Player A, on Team A, with stats of Player B, on Team B, is that virtually every stat is affected by teammates, team style/coaching, amongst a list of many other factors as long as my leg.

                  A few recent examples to highlight just a little of the point:
                  - Carlos Boozer: he moves from Utah to Chicago and his stats drop across the board, including a big drop in FG% from 56% to 51%,,,,,, except for DRtg. Does that mean that he's suddenly a worse player, except for D, or are his stats greatly affected by the team, style of play, and his teammates?
                  - Ryan Anderson: moves from Magic to NOLA and shooting percentages drop to lowest in 4 years, rebounding drops, ORtg plunges and DRtg shoots up. He's falling, or he's affected by team/teammates?
                  Gortat: Nash & Hill leave, stats drop across the board, including the worst rebounding/36 in his career. He's worse, or affected by team play?
                  Paul Pierce: In his
                  3rd year his FG% 45, 3P% 38
                  4th year his FG% 44, 3P% 40
                  5th year his FG% 41, 3P% 30
                  6th year his FG% 40, 3P% 30
                  Was he getting worse over 2 years, or something else? It would seem something else, because his percentages shot up again in his 7th year.

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                  • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                    It also heavily depends on the team. Defensive win shares are based on your own defensive numbers (blocks, steals, etc) + your opponent's offensive numbers while you are on the floor. Basically, it's an elaborate +/- stat, and like all +/- stats, however complicated, it depends on teammates.
                    How much is 'heavily'? WS does adjust for drtg, but does that mean its 1) a bad thing compared to not adjusting and 2) enough to make the statistic wrong/not worthwhile using/not relative enough?


                    Interestingly enough Boozer has had a DRTG higher than his each of his teams, and every single year, since entering the league (note this is an enourmous sample size - 11 seasons, 714 games and over 23,000 minutes with numerous different teammates both good and bad) This would indicate that he has had a positive effect on his team's defense (atleast compared to an average teammate), and has therefore been a 'good' defender.

                    Perhaps the problem isn't with defensive win share, so much as it is a perception of the player himself.

                    PS. I will point out, that once DWS is adjusted for minutes played, his ranking will drop dramatically although his impact will stay the same.
                    Last edited by Craiger; Thu Aug 8, 2013, 06:26 PM.

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                    • Craiger wrote: View Post
                      How much is 'heavily'? WS does adjust for drtg, but does that mean its 1) a bad thing compared to not adjusting and 2) enough to make the statistic wrong/not worthwhile using/not relative enough?


                      Interestingly enough Boozer has had a DRTG higher than his each of his teams, and every single year, since entering the league (note this is an enourmous sample size - 11 seasons, 714 games and over 23,000 minutes with numerous different teammates both good and bad) This would indicate indicate that he has had a positive effect on his team's defense, and has therefore been a 'good' defender.

                      Perhaps the problem isn't with defensive win share, so much as it is a perception of the player himself.
                      Defensive rating and defensive win shares are basically the same stat, btw. Defensive win shares are nothing but defensive rating adjusted for player's total minutes / possessions.

                      The impact of teammates is huge. It is heavy enough to cause many bad defensive players have strong defensive win shares, as long as they are on good defensive teams. DJ Augustin has stronger WS/48 numbers than Jrue Holiday or Rubio for example. All you really have to do is look at the list of all players by win shares / WS48 / pr defensive rating, and you'll find a ton of these examples.

                      That said, WS / defensive rating aren't completely useless stats. At the very least, they show that a player was featured in strong defensive lineups, which is valuable info. If someone tells you that DJ Augustin = bad team defense, you can point to these numbers and say, no, maybe he doesn't help, but it's possible to hide him to a degree.

                      Also, in general, there's a correlation between good defenders and good defensive rating / defensive win shares. 7 or 8 times of 10, those numbers will reflect solid individual defense.
                      Last edited by BobLoblaw; Thu Aug 8, 2013, 06:55 PM.

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                      • BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
                        Defensive rating and defensive win shares are basically the same stat, btw. Defensive win shares are nothing but defensive rating adjusted for player's total minutes / possessions.

                        The impact of teammates is huge. It is heavy enough to cause many bad defensive players have strong defensive win shares, as long as they are on good defensive teams. DJ Augustin has stronger WS/48 numbers than Jrue Holiday or Rubio for example. All you really have to do is look at the list of all players by win shares / WS48 / pr defensive rating, and you'll find a ton of these examples.

                        That said, WS / defensive rating aren't completely useless stats. At the very least, they show that a player was featured in strong defensive lineups, which is valuable info. If someone tells you that DJ Augustin = bad team defense, you can point to these numbers and say, no, maybe he doesn't help, but it's possible to hide him to a degree.

                        Also, in general, there's a correlation between good defenders and good defensive rating / defensive win shares. 7 or 8 times of 10, those numbers will reflect solid individual defense.
                        I think it's fair to compare DWS for two players who play for similarly capable defensive teams.

                        In Deng's 1st season the Bulls had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.6
                        Deng's DWS: 5.6

                        Last year's Pacers had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.8
                        George's DWS: 6.3

                        So it's safe to say based ONLY on that (obviously other things like the eye-test are important), that George is a slightly better defender than LD was in his 3rd season.

                        So I'll ask again, what makes George significantly better than 3rd year Deng? I'd actually argue that Deng was better due to his FAR SUPERIOR offensive volume and efficiency. Both teams (06-07 Bulls and 12-13 Pacers) won 49 games as well, so you can't say it's because either player was on a better or worse team either.

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                        • Rapstor4Life wrote: View Post
                          Nope Paul George and I was wrong on his field goal percentage its 41% still not good at any means the average for wing players is 42-44%

                          http://www.nba.com/playerfile/paul_george/index.html
                          Wait that can't be right? No way DD shot above average for a wing!
                          @Chr1st1anL

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                          • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                            Wait that can't be right? No way DD shot above average for a wing!
                            Its not.

                            He didn't.

                            http://www.thenbageek.com/players/co..._ids[]=318

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                            • Xixak wrote: View Post
                              I think it's fair to compare DWS for two players who play for similarly capable defensive teams.

                              In Deng's 1st season the Bulls had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.6
                              Deng's DWS: 5.6

                              Last year's Pacers had the best defense with a DRTG of 99.8
                              George's DWS: 6.3

                              So it's safe to say based ONLY on that (obviously other things like the eye-test are important), that George is a slightly better defender than LD was in his 3rd season.
                              No.

                              Here's a 2012 example, using that logic. Chicago and Boston were similar defensive teams in 2012. Boozer and KG had near identical defensive rating and DWS. Therefore, it's safe to say that Boozer and KG were similar defenders.
                              5 minutes of tape is better than that.

                              George is so ahead of the curve defensively, that it's ridiculous. He is far better than a young Deng or for that matter Iggy (on the defensive end). George's defensive footwork and help defense might be the best among all wings in the league, right now.

                              I just don't know if he can still improve on the defensive end, he's so good already. He needs to add some strength, but won't he lose some of the quickness? If he can still improve as a defender, we might be looking at a generational wing defender, a la Moncrief, Cooper, Payton, Artest. It will be interesting where he goes from here, to say the least.

                              As for Deng, early in his career, Deng wasn't all that great. He was solid defensively because of his length and effort, but far from elite.
                              Last edited by BobLoblaw; Thu Aug 8, 2013, 11:26 PM. Reason: forgetting "that" really does change the meaning of a sentence sometimes..

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                              • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                                Wait that can't be right? No way DD shot above average for a wing!
                                according to his site and nba ya he did...

                                http://www.nba.com/playerfile/demar_derozan/

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