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Thread: Toronto's sell-off competition

  1. #81
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    Masai said when he first came back that his aim was on the 2014-15 season rather than this one, and that makes sense.

    First off: the 2014 free market bonanza hype is overblown. Half of the huge marquee players are just going to resign with their current teams (Dirk, Kobe) or get their big extensions (George, Boogie, Monroe). Really, the 2014 free agent hoopla comes down to two things: 1.) Whether whether the Big Three decide to stay in Miami or move on to the next thing (which is by no means guaranteed, and the better a season Miami has this year, the more likely they are to stay together; if they get the threepeat, no chance they don't go for a fourpeat, basically) and 2.) the Melo-drama, because Melo will be likely courted by everybody, but especially by New York and the Lakers.

    (There's actually a strong chance that Rudy could be one of the biggest free agents next summer if he exercises his player option; if the Big Three re-up then his free agent value rises significantly. Basically, Rudy wants to be a free agent in whatever year Melo and LeBron aren't free agents, and it's more LeBron then Melo since Melo plays power forward so well. I could easily see the Lakers thinking that a starting foursome of Rudy, Melo, Kobe and Nash is their gameplan, and it's not the worst gameplan really.)

    Second, like Matt just pointed out: the only way we have a lot of cap room in summer 2014 is if Rudy exercises his option (in which case we're competing for our own player's services). So we'd have not a lot of money competing for not a lot of options.

    2015 is the better year to aim for. We'll really have not a lot of money committed at all, it's a much richer free agent market for next-level stars (Love, LMA, Rondo, et cetera) and we won't have to go overboard unloading our bad contracts (Landry, etc.).

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    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?

    I wonder how Rudy would look as a Laker.

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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?

    I wonder how Rudy would look as a Laker.
    I think an extension has to be at least 105% of the last year, so no. The only way they could do that, is for Masai and Rudy to have a handshake deal, then have Rudy opt out and sign a new deal for less.

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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    If Rudy Exercises his option, is Masai allowed to offer him less money per season, but a large multi-year contract in the CBA?
    We would retain his Bird rights since Rudy's current contract will have been longer than three years, so Toronto could still offer Rudy a five-year contract under the CBA if he exercises his player option, yes.

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    Quote Dino4life wrote: View Post
    I think an extension has to be at least 105% of the last year, so no. The only way they could do that, is for Masai and Rudy to have a handshake deal, then have Rudy opt out and sign a new deal for less.
    If Rudy exercises his option, then by definition he's not agreeing to an extension since he's terminating the contract early. We would, however, retain his Bird rights if he opted out.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    If Rudy exercises his option, then by definition he's not agreeing to an extension since he's terminating the contract early. We would, however, retain his Bird rights if he opted out.
    Yeah i read it as player option, not Early termination option.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Masai said when he first came back that his aim was on the 2014-15 season rather than this one, and that makes sense.

    First off: the 2014 free market bonanza hype is overblown. Half of the huge marquee players are just going to resign with their current teams (Dirk, Kobe) or get their big extensions (George, Boogie, Monroe). Really, the 2014 free agent hoopla comes down to two things: 1.) Whether whether the Big Three decide to stay in Miami or move on to the next thing (which is by no means guaranteed, and the better a season Miami has this year, the more likely they are to stay together; if they get the threepeat, no chance they don't go for a fourpeat, basically) and 2.) the Melo-drama, because Melo will be likely courted by everybody, but especially by New York and the Lakers.

    (There's actually a strong chance that Rudy could be one of the biggest free agents next summer if he exercises his player option; if the Big Three re-up then his free agent value rises significantly. Basically, Rudy wants to be a free agent in whatever year Melo and LeBron aren't free agents, and it's more LeBron then Melo since Melo plays power forward so well. I could easily see the Lakers thinking that a starting foursome of Rudy, Melo, Kobe and Nash is their gameplan, and it's not the worst gameplan really.)

    Second, like Matt just pointed out: the only way we have a lot of cap room in summer 2014 is if Rudy exercises his option (in which case we're competing for our own player's services). So we'd have not a lot of money competing for not a lot of options.

    2015 is the better year to aim for. We'll really have not a lot of money committed at all, it's a much richer free agent market for next-level stars (Love, LMA, Rondo, et cetera) and we won't have to go overboard unloading our bad contracts (Landry, etc.).
    Ugh, Nash and Kobe (when he comes back) at their age, + Melo and Gay would be a horrible, horrible lineup. They'd make last year's Lakers look like a well-oiled machine built with perfectly complimenting pieces.

    I understand the long-term strategy for Gay opting out early, but has a player as significantly overpaid as he is ever walked away from that amount of guaranteed money?

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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    I understand the long-term strategy for Gay opting out early, but has a player as significantly overpaid as he is ever walked away from that amount of guaranteed money?
    All the time. Athlete's careers are short, and guaranteed money is hard to turn down. Kirilenko and Ellis are two examples just from this current offseason.

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    Quote tkfu wrote: View Post
    All the time. Athlete's careers are short, and guaranteed money is hard to turn down. Kirilenko and Ellis are two examples just from this current offseason.
    I'm not talking about it happening, I'm talking about it happening with the degree of overpayment Gay's about to enjoy in the final year of his contract. Ellis just went from $11 mil. to $8 mil. AK went from $9.8 mil to $3 mil., but was about to get a paycut anyway - any rumours of how much other teams offered him? A few GM's think there's some kind of Russian side-deal going on in that arrangement.

    Gay's going to get $19 mil in the final year of his contract. You know who was recently signed to that kind of money? Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams. Franchise players + perennial All-Stars + US Olympians + MVP candidates. That's not Ellis/Kirilenko money we're talking about here. Even Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, slotted to end up in that range, are at $16 and $17 mil. this next season.

    What's Gay's paycut going to be if he opts out of $19 mil? Other good-but-not-quite-all-star-material recent signings put guys of his stature in the $10-$14 mil. range (Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Pekovic, Josh Smith, Igoudala, Ibaka).

    It's all a matter of degrees and there are 100 unknowns, but I wouldn't take the chance of walking away form $19 mil guaranteed just to sign a $12 mil/year (or whatever) contract one year earlier. I think Gay's case is unique. Guys don't just get handed $19 mil anymore unless they're franchise players and league MVPs.

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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    I'm not talking about it happening, I'm talking about it happening with the degree of overpayment Gay's about to enjoy in the final year of his contract. Ellis just went from $11 mil. to $8 mil. AK went from $9.8 mil to $3 mil., but was about to get a paycut anyway - any rumours of how much other teams offered him? A few GM's think there's some kind of Russian side-deal going on in that arrangement.

    Gay's going to get $19 mil in the final year of his contract. You know who was recently signed to that kind of money? Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams. Franchise players + perennial All-Stars + US Olympians + MVP candidates. That's not Ellis/Kirilenko money we're talking about here. Even Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, slotted to end up in that range, are at $16 and $17 mil. this next season.

    What's Gay's paycut going to be if he opts out of $19 mil? Other good-but-not-quite-all-star-material recent signings put guys of his stature in the $10-$14 mil. range (Ty Lawson, Tyreke Evans, Pekovic, Josh Smith, Igoudala, Ibaka).

    It's all a matter of degrees and there are 100 unknowns, but I wouldn't take the chance of walking away form $19 mil guaranteed just to sign a $12 mil/year (or whatever) contract one year earlier. I think Gay's case is unique. Guys don't just get handed $19 mil anymore unless they're franchise players and league MVPs.
    I don't have a strong opinion on whether Gay will opt in/out at the end of the year, but I think you're framing this slightly incorrectly. He's not really "walking away" from $19 million guaranteed as much as he is walking into $50 million guaranteed, just over a longer period of time.

  11. #91
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    Quote Fully wrote: View Post
    I don't have a strong opinion on whether Gay will opt in/out at the end of the year, but I think you're framing this slightly incorrectly. He's not really "walking away" from $19 million guaranteed as much as he is walking into $50 million guaranteed, just over a longer period of time.
    Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

    I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.

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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    Of course I mean he's walking away from $19 mil to sign $12-ish mil. (or whatever). He easily stands to "lose" $7-9 mil. that year if he opts out of this contract. Supposedly he'll make it up in his next contract, but I think the drop-off from his current salary to his next one is too much to make up. If he opts out he'll sign his next contract as a 28 year old. If he doesn't, he'll sign his next contract as a 29 year old. I don't see him worrying about being shortchanged by hitting the free market as a 29 year old.

    I'm not really arguing for/against either - just honest thoughts.
    I'm inclined to agree with you.

    Contracts are certainly not being handed out like they use to.

    $19M is unheard of today except for the select few, upper echelon, legit franchise talents - which Gay is not.

    I also think he'd rather be looking for his final pay day at 29 versus 32. It is not only the $7M or so "lost" next year it is also about what would he make at 33. I think he makes more at 33 signing when he is 29 than he would make at 33 looking for that season.

    Thinking about this actually gives me a shred of hope that his trade value might be a little higher due to the (my opinion) higher probability he signs for next year..... or maybe it makes it lower.... damn, confusion sets in again.
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    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
    And yet Iggy is by far the superior defender and has USA basketball stamp of approval. Gay's just another volume scorer in the grand scheme of things. I'd be shocked if Gay was offered more than $12.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala.
    Iggy is the better playmaker, facilitator and defender, though, all of which were important to the teams chasing him - teams that already had good primary options (Golden State had Steph Curry, Sacramento had Boogie and at the time Tyreke Evans, Detroit had the Monroe/Drummond frontcourt, etc.).

    I actually agree that Rudy can probably get $14 million somewhere in 2014, though. I think LA will pony up for him if/when they don't get LeBron (and Cleveland probably will as well); I think New York will chase him if they lose Melo; I think several other teams who want to pretend they're one key piece away from contending will offer him money as well (your Dallases, your Denvers, et cetera). Rudy's good enough that people will overspend in the hopes that he finally lives up to his potential.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
    I'm not so sure about that. Whether it's completely fair or not, Gay's stock seems to have pretty much bottomed out. Every list of overrated or overpaid players from the last year had Gay in one of the top spots. I'm expecting a pretty big pay slash for him on his next deal barring a phenomenal year for him in the interim. $12 million / year seems realistic.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I didn't think these thoughts merited a thread but not sure where to put it, so I came here......


    1) When looking around the league, combing each team's salary page at Mark Deeks' site ShamSports.com, there are not a lot of those really, really bad contracts anymore.... well, not ones that go beyond 2014-15 (i.e. most bad deals have just 2 years left on them).

    What are the worst non-expiring contracts in the league?

    Landry Fields, 2 years, $13M
    Gerald Wallace, 3 years, $31M
    Carlos Boozer, 2 years, $32M
    Amar'e Stoudemire, 2 years, $43M
    Jason Richardson, 2 years, $13M
    Jeremy Lin, 2 years, $20M
    Eric Gordon, 3 years, $45M

    Did I miss any? (No extensions included, like DeRozan, or contracts signed this summer because we don't know how they play out, like Evans).

    It would appear the new CBA and luxury tax has scared the majority of the league in to smaller contracts with less years and more scrutiny. What do you think?



    2) There is going to be a lot of salary cap money to be spent in the next few years.

    Looking at 2014, nearly half the league has significant cap space (click link on bottom - lots of unknowns with options, resignings could change things):









    http://www.hoopsworld.com/looking-to...14s-salary-cap
    Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

    But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.

  18. #98
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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    Bargnani, Nene (if he keeps getting injured), Joe Johnson, Gay, Perkins, probably a few more.

    But it's not as bad as it used to be, indeed. I think the biggest thing is the new contract length. Those old 6 year Bird contracts used to hurt. In most cases, people start to look really overpaid several years into their contracts, once injuries and age piles up.
    All of those deals were signed before the new CBA with the exception of Nene - who Ujiri promptly traded.

    Do you remember the old 7 year contracts? Holy crap. I believe it was the summer of '97 when just about everyone was getting a 7 year, $100M contract.
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    Raptors Republic Starter S.R.'s Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Saying Gay would be turning down 19M for 12M is pretty unrealistic.

    Gay is younger, bigger and more dynamic offensively (in that he can assume the role of a pseudo #1 option or be an elite #2 option) than Andre Iguodala. Iggy got offered 4yrs/56M by the Kings (so 14M per year by Iguodala). Gay could definitely get upwards of 15M on the open-market, and that is why he will opt out. Getting a guaranteed 60M+ over the next 4 years outweighs the loss of <= 4M in the 2014-15 season.
    Anything's possible (and there's always a GM willing to overpay), but I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Gay got $15 mil. Look at more recent contracts in the $14-$15 mil range - this is James Harden and Russel Westbrook money now. Even those guys' deals max out at $17.5-ish on the tail end.

    Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).

    Also, Iggy may have turned down $14 mil, but he signed for $12 mil. dropping to $11. He's also made the All-Star team, the US Olympic squad, the Defensive 2nd team, and is still 29. It's a bit of a stretch to argue from his contract that Gay will get $15 - I'd suggest Iggy's a good argument for Gay getting closer to $12 mil.

    Good for Rudy if he opts out and another GM offers him $15 mil./per, but it'd be even better for the Raptors! I'd like to see how Ujiri would use that cap space...
    Last edited by S.R.; Thu Sep 12th, 2013 at 12:30 AM.

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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    Reasonable contracts at $12 mil. - Rondo, Tony Parker, Al Horford, David West, Igoudala. Gay has nice ppg numbers, but in terms of contributing to team success? I'd put him on par with that group (and I'd gladly trade him for a couple of them).
    The only one on that list I wouldn't trade Gay for straight up would be David West, frankly.

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