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  • #91
    ...Bummer...

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    • #92
      It looks like Canada will have to win tomorrow or not qualify for Spain.

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      • #93
        considering their promising start, this is really crushing if they dont make it to spain..
        If Your Uncle Jack Helped You Off An Elephant, Would You Help Your Uncle Jack Off An Elephant?

        Sometimes, I like to buy a book on CD and listen to it, while reading music.

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        • #94
          This game was a mood killer...

          Let's stay optimistic for tommorow.

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          • #95
            I mentioned this in the other subforum. But looking at canada play. Reminds me so much of watching the raptors play under triano. one trick pony i guess.

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            • #96
              So... let's talk scenarios by which Canada still finishes top 4:

              It is pretty dire. Even if they beat Argentina, they need to get lucky with the tie-breaker.
              Here are the possible tie scenarios and how Canada finishes in each (none of these four teams play each other again, so these tie-breakers will not change).

              a) A two-way tie with Mexico, Canada wins.
              b) A two-way tie with Venezuela, Canada loses.
              c) A two-way tie with Dominican, Canada loses.
              d) A three-way tie with Mexico and Venezuela, Canada is first out of those three.
              e) A three-way tie with Mexico and Dominican, Canada is first out of those three.
              f) A three-way tie with Venezuela and Dominican, Canada is last out of those three.
              g) A four-way tie with Venezuela, Dominican, and Mexico, Canada finishes last out of those four.

              There are zero scenarios where Canada can lose tomorrow and still advance.
              If they win, there are sixteen possible outcome combinations for remaining games. By my count, 9 of those combinations result in them being eliminated, 7 result in them advancing (highlighted in red). Short answer is that other than their own game, the game that's most important is Puerto Rico vs. Mexico. If Puerto Rico wins that, Canada advances in 6 of the 8 scenarios.

              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker d)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker a)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker g)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker e)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker b)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (no tiebreaker, Canada finishes 3rd)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker f)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker c)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker a)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker d)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker e)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker g)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (**)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker b)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (**)
              V - PR / U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker f)

              **results in a tie with Puerto Rico, or Puerto Rico and Dominican. Canada loses both of those.

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              • #97
                Is there another qualifying tournament for Spain 2014 next year for teams from various regions of the world that finished just short of qualifying, which in FIBA Americas case, the fifth and sixth place teams?

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                • #98
                  stretch wrote: View Post
                  Is there another qualifying tournament for Spain 2014 next year for teams from various regions of the world that finished just short of qualifying, which in FIBA Americas case, the fifth and sixth place teams?
                  Nope, just four wildcard spots. You pay $500,000 to FIBA, tell them how great you are, then they pick the teams they want based on some mysterious criteria.

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                  • #99
                    octothorp wrote: View Post
                    Nope, just four wildcard spots. You pay $500,000 to FIBA, tell them how great you are, then they pick the teams they want based on some mysterious criteria.
                    That can't actually be how the wildcard works ... is it?!

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                    • FIBA had play in tournaments both for the World Championship in 2011, Canada qualified this way, and for the Olympics last year, Lithuania qualified in that manner.

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                      • stretch wrote: View Post
                        FIBA had play in tournaments both for the World Championship in 2011, Canada qualified this way, and for the Olympics last year, Lithuania qualified in that manner.
                        FIBA World Cup plan was produced without any additional qualifying tournaments and it CAN'T BE CHANGED.

                        "Committee" decided to allow FIBA select 4 teams ( wild cards ) after continental championships are done. They can't select more than 3 teams from the same continent.

                        ... a lot of room for corruption during this "invitation process"...

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                        • Saw the game today. And i tell ya, CLASSIC Jay Triano team. Reminds me a lot of the Jay Triano Raptors team. No defence, run and gun offence. It was pathetic to watch. They were playing too fast for their own good i thought. Cory Joseph the PG was out of control most of the time. And Andrew Nicholson, their best player was on fire today, he was unstoppable in the post. But for some reason they just started chucking 3's late in the game.
                          Mamba Mentality

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                          • I've watched all the national team games this tournament and Triano has done a good job in putting a competitive team in a very short time.

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                            • I really wanted to see Anthony Bennett, Kelly Olynck, and Andrew wiggins on this squad. Then they wouldn't be forced to play guys like Rautins and Dornekemp

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                              • octothorp wrote: View Post
                                So... let's talk scenarios by which Canada still finishes top 4:
                                Just thought I'd update octothorpe's excellent post with the current situation. Things are looking even worse now. Uruguay's very unlikely to beat the Dominican Republic, so I'm going to focus on the possibilities that assume DR wins that game (and, of course, assume that Canada beats Argentina--if we don't, we're out).

                                The only way for Canada to advance is if Puerto Rico beats Mexico (likely), and Jamaica beats Venezuela (unlikely, but not impossible). Just for fun, I'm going to assign win probabilities to each game (just my own guesses, based on what I've seen of the tournament so far) to see how likely each scenario is.

                                Uruguay 10% vs. D.R. 90%
                                P.R. 70% vs. Mexico 30%
                                Jamaica 20% vs. Venezuela 80% (I'd give Jamaica more of a chance, were it not for the fact that they already know they're eliminated, and because Venezuela will likely be be in a win-and-you're-in situation, in front of the home crowd).

                                And here's the list of scenarios, with probabilities attached to the front:

                                (1.4%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker a)
                                (0.6%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (no tiebreaker, Canada finishes 3rd)
                                (5.6%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker d)
                                (2.4%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker b)

                                (12.6%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker e)
                                (5.4%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker c)
                                (50.4%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker g)
                                (21.6%) U - DR / PR - M / J - V (tiebreaker f)

                                If you add up the chances of all the scenarios where Canada advances, we've got about a 1 in 5 chance--and that's assuming we beat Argentina, which I'd say is anyone's game. So overall, maybe about a 10% shot? Not looking good.

                                Remember, these are just my guesses. If you give Uruguay more credit than I do, Canada's chances increase. Same goes for if you think Jamaica's got more of a chance to upset Venezuela.

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