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Thread: DeMar DeRozan vs. Rip Hamilton

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    Default DeMar DeRozan vs. Rip Hamilton

    DeMar DeRozan is eerily similar to Rip Hamilton on the Detroit Pistons championship team... like twins.

    AGE: DeMar - 24, Rip - 25
    HEIGHT: DeMar - 6'7, Rip - 6'6
    SALARY: DeMar - 9.5M (16.2% of 58M Cap), Rip - 6.5M (15.1% of 43M Cap)

    All stats will be per 36 where applicable. DeMar played 36.7mpg compared to Rip's 35.5 so that's why. Also, if anyone cares, the Pistons and Raptors both played at the 24th fastest pace in these respective seasons (although overall league pace was lower back in 03-04).

    POINTS: DeMar - 17.7ppg, Rip - 17.9ppg
    REBOUNDS: DeMar - 3.8rpg, Rip - 3.6rpg
    ASSISTS: DeMar - 2.4apg, Rip - 4.0apg (Largely a result of being on the best team in the league)
    TURNOVERS: DeMar - 1.8topg, Rip - 2.7topg
    AST/TO RATIO: DeMar - 1.33, Rip - 1.48
    STEALS: DeMar - 0.9spg, Rip - 1.3spg
    BLOCKS: DeMar - 0.3bpg, Rip - 0.2bpg
    FGM/FGA: DeMar - 6.5/14.7 (44.5%), Rip - 6.9/15.1 (45.5%)
    FTM/FTA: DeMar - 4.2/5.1 (83.1%), Rip - 3.9/4.4 (86.8%)
    3PM/3PA: DeMar - 0.4/1.5 (28.3%), Rip - 0.2/0.9 (26.5%)

    PER - DeMar - 14.9, Rip - 16.8 (Difference in assists on Rip's part helps him here)
    TS% - DeMar - 52.3%, Rip - 52.2%
    eFG% - DeMar - 45.9%, Rip - 46.2%

    It's also interesting to look at their shooting splits (check Basketball Reference)

    Rip took 794 shots from mid range (51% of his total shot attempts) and converted 40.6% of them.
    DeRozan took 679 shots from mid range (55% of his total shot attempts) and converted 40.6% of them.

    The fact is these two guys at those stages of their careers were very similar players. Rip was actually less efficient earlier on in his career when he was with some awful-to-mediocre Washington teams (TS%s of 48.2, 50.8 and 51.1%). He's also getting a bit of a boost in this comparison by playing on the best team in the league, compared to DeMar playing on one of the worst.

    Also the season I was looking at for Rip here was his 5th season in the league compared to DeMar's 4th. At that point, as I showed earlier in the stats, he was still a bad three point shooter (18 made on 68 attempts for 26.5%). People will try and argue this by pointing to two earlier seasons in his career where he shot 36.4 and 38.1% from three, but these were also on small sample sizes (28 and 16 makes respectively). I think the fact that he shot 27.4% on 146 attempts in his 2nd season, and 26.9% on 119 attempts in his 4th are better indicators of how good he was at shooting from distance (he also shot 29% from 3 through his first 5 seasons).

    Despite this, he was able to shoot 37.5% from three through his last 8 seasons in the league, including a year where he shot 45.8% on 120 attempts. So I'm really not sure why DeMar wouldn't be able to improve his 3-ball as well.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar enlightenment's Avatar
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    Nice digging Xixak.

    The comparison is uncanny. Though Id say one thing that Rip had a concrete leg up on Demar is with defense. Something Derozan is sub-par at. Offensively though, Rip was a major cog in the championship team, even with favoring the worst shot in the league (mid-range). Demar needs to take after Rips career, and thats a huge compliment for anyone.
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Nice digging Xixak.

    The comparison is uncanny. Though Id say one thing that Rip had a concrete leg up on Demar is with defense. Something Derozan is sub-par at. Offensively though, Rip was a major cog in the championship team, even with favoring the worst shot in the league (mid-range). Demar needs to take after Rips career, and thats a huge compliment for anyone.
    I'm not even sure I'd say Rip is a better defender. Being part of one of the best defensive teams in NBA History is going to make anyone look like a better defender than they actually are.

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    in before matt

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    Seems appropriate DeMar torched him this year. Got under him.

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    Watching that makes me impatient. I want the season to have started yesterday.

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    Interesting numbers. But keep in mind that 2004 = hand checking. It was the end of that transitional era where they had the Shaq rule (more zone) but hadn't exterminated hand checking yet. Scoring was more difficult, teams were less efficient. It was the period of lockdown defense and iso offense.

    For numbers perspective, 2013 league average TS% is .535, 2004 - .516. So Rip was quite efficient for his era, while DeMar is below average.

    I'll give DeMar this, though -- he has to create much more than Rip ever did. If DeMar took the same shots as Rip, he might be fairly efficient too.

    Then again, that's where prime Rip was beautiful. He got a ton of those shots. To be able to score as much as he did despite being mainly an off the ball offensive player is special. It takes smart non stop movement off the ball and great stamina. Rip was an offensive work horse. Could DeMar develop into a player like that if he was asked to? Maybe. But he's a different type of player now, he's more of a secondary creator.
    Last edited by BobLoblaw; Sun Sep 22nd, 2013 at 08:19 PM.

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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    Interesting numbers. But keep in mind that 2004 = hand checking. It was the end of that transitional era where they had the Shaq rule (more zone) but hadn't exterminated hand checking yet. Scoring was more difficult, teams were less efficient. It was the period of lockdown defense and iso offense.

    For numbers perspective, 2013 league average TS% is .535, 2004 - .516. So Rip was quite efficient for his era, while DeMar is below average.

    I'll give DeMar this, though -- he has to create much more than Rip ever did. If DeMar took the same shots as Rip, he might be fairly efficient too.

    Then again, that's where prime Rip was beautiful. He got a ton of those shots. To be able to score as much as he did despite being mainly an off the ball offensive player is special. It takes smart non stop movement off the ball and great stamina. Rip was an offensive work horse. Could DeMar develop into a player like that if he was asked to? Maybe. But he's a different type of player now, he's more of a secondary creator.
    These are all valid points. What I'll say about efficiency though is this. Back in 2004, league efficiency was lower not really because of hand-checking, but because way more one-on-one basketball was being played. A lot of teams were running the bulk of their offence through one guy, unlike nowadays where a more team-oriented, ball movement style of play is implemented. Last year in the NBA I believe only 9 guys averaged over 20ppg, in 2004 there were 17. Also teams didn't make as much use of the corner three (except for a select few like the Spurs with Bowen), and advanced stats didn't play as big a role in tactics.

    Basically, while teams may have been less efficient back then, making Rip above average... DeMar likely would've also been above average efficiency in that era (and he probably would be now too if he wasn't used like a primary scorer).

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    These are all valid points. What I'll say about efficiency though is this. Back in 2004, league efficiency was lower not really because of hand-checking, but because way more one-on-one basketball was being played. A lot of teams were running the bulk of their offence through one guy, unlike nowadays where a more team-oriented, ball movement style of play is implemented. Last year in the NBA I believe only 9 guys averaged over 20ppg, in 2004 there were 17. Also teams didn't make as much use of the corner three (except for a select few like the Spurs with Bowen), and advanced stats didn't play as big a role in tactics.

    Basically, while teams may have been less efficient back then, making Rip above average... DeMar likely would've also been above average efficiency in that era (and he probably would be now too if he wasn't used like a primary scorer).
    Why is DeMar special, or do you mean that all current NBA scorers are better and would rank higher if "teleported" to 2004?

    I doubt that DeMar would maintain his efficiency, since defense was better.

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    There are some interesting comparison's, but the game has changed. I'm not sure Rip Hamilton's skill set would be seen as valuable as it was in the early 2000's.
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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    Few stats perhaps worth noting:

    pace - Toronto 90.4 Detroit 87.9
    The raw data stated above is not just on less minutes a game, but also less possession a game.

    assist% - Demar 12% vs Rip Hamilton 22%
    (*I also don't think its fair claiming assist numbers were based off of the 'quality' of Detroits team that year - Detroit had an ortg of 102 that year vs Toronto's 105.9 this year. ie. Hamilton almost doubled Demar in assists despite a "worse" offensive team)

    DWS - Demar 1.4 Rip 4.4
    (thats unadjusted for minutes where Rip played less minutes)

    WS/48 - Demar .075 Rip .141

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    Quote BobLoblaw wrote: View Post
    Interesting numbers. But keep in mind that 2004 = hand checking. It was the end of that transitional era where they had the Shaq rule (more zone) but hadn't exterminated hand checking yet. Scoring was more difficult, teams were less efficient. It was the period of lockdown defense and iso offense.

    For numbers perspective, 2013 league average TS% is .535, 2004 - .516. So Rip was quite efficient for his era, while DeMar is below average.

    I'll give DeMar this, though -- he has to create much more than Rip ever did. If DeMar took the same shots as Rip, he might be fairly efficient too.

    Then again, that's where prime Rip was beautiful. He got a ton of those shots. To be able to score as much as he did despite being mainly an off the ball offensive player is special. It takes smart non stop movement off the ball and great stamina. Rip was an offensive work horse. Could DeMar develop into a player like that if he was asked to? Maybe. But he's a different type of player now, he's more of a secondary creator.
    Some great comments Bobloblaw. I don't think it's quite fair to compare DeMar and Rip, just yet. Perhaps their stats fall in line, but Rip was a maestro with his mid range game and stamina. Defenders would look broken by the end of games after trying to keep up with Rip for 4 quarters. Detroit would run plays for him to come off multiple screens to get an open jump shot, just like Boston would do for Ray Allen, that is how automatic he seemed to be with his mid range game.

    If DeMar can master the mid range jump shot, with his size and jumping ability he could be deadly, but he has a long, long way to go imo.

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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Few stats perhaps worth noting:

    pace - Toronto 90.4 Detroit 87.9
    The raw data stated above is not just on less minutes a game, but also less possession a game.
    I actually did talk about pace right here:

    "Also, if anyone cares, the Pistons and Raptors both played at the 24th fastest pace in these respective seasons (although overall league pace was lower back in 03-04)."

    assist% - Demar 12% vs Rip Hamilton 22%
    (*I also don't think its fair claiming assist numbers were based off of the 'quality' of Detroits team that year - Detroit had an ortg of 102 that year vs Toronto's 105.9 this year. ie. Hamilton almost doubled Demar in assists despite a "worse" offensive team)
    Rip in 03-04 was definitely a better passer than DeRozan is right now, but let's not forget that was his 5th season and he actually saw quite a big jump in assists that year (he averaged about 2.8 in the previous 4 seasons), and was much more prone to turning over the ball as a result of that. As we both acknowledged, the Pistons played at a little slower pace than the Raptors did last year and used less possessions, but despite this Rip still turned the ball over just under 3 times per game and his ast/to ratio of 1.48 was only marginally higher than DeMar's of 1.33.

    DWS - Demar 1.4 Rip 4.4
    (thats unadjusted for minutes where Rip played less minutes)

    WS/48 - Demar .075 Rip .141

    Win Shares are largely impacted by how good the team you play on is. If you move a player to a better team and give them the same role (which is exactly what happened with Rip when he moved from WAS to DET), their win shares will increase. This is why his WS/48 jumped from 0.087 in his last season with a 37 win Washington team, to 0.141 with the NBA Champion Detroit Pistons. Rip's DWS in his last year in Washington was 0.6 compared to 1.6 for DeMar last season.

    This isn't some isolated case, for example Chauncey Billups never posted a DWS higher than 1.5 before joining the Pistons in 02-03, then posted a 4.2 DWS in 03-04 when the Pistons peaked defensively (he has never touched that mark since in his career).

    DWS really doesn't measure individual defense at all (neither does dRTG btw). It just gives high marks to players that play a ton of minutes on good defensive teams, some examples:

    Zach Randolph (10th in DWS last season because Memphis ranked 2nd in defense last year. Funny enough, Gasol was 2nd in the league, Conley 7th and Tony Allen 14th... this order also happens to directly coincide with their minutes played.)

    Carlos Boozer (13th in DWS last year, Bulls were 6th in defense, don't think anybody actually considers Boozer to be some sort of elite defender)

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    Quote Mediumcore wrote: View Post
    Some great comments Bobloblaw. I don't think it's quite fair to compare DeMar and Rip, just yet. Perhaps their stats fall in line, but Rip was a maestro with his mid range game and stamina. Defenders would look broken by the end of games after trying to keep up with Rip for 4 quarters. Detroit would run plays for him to come off multiple screens to get an open jump shot, just like Boston would do for Ray Allen, that is how automatic he seemed to be with his mid range game.

    If DeMar can master the mid range jump shot, with his size and jumping ability he could be deadly, but he has a long, long way to go imo.
    Rip took 794 shots from mid range (51% of his total shot attempts) and converted 40.6% of them.
    DeRozan took 679 shots from mid range (55% of his total shot attempts) and converted 40.6% of them.

    I don't think it has anything to do with DeMar having a long way to go as a mid-range jump-shooter. It has more to do with this team having a long-way to go in terms of sets, philosophy, and simply just having better talent. I think DeMar could be used in the Rip role perfectly, but we didn't really have that luxury because defenses were keying in on him before Gay showed up (especially since Lowry was hurt for a ton of games). Despite that his efficiency was virtually identical to Rip's.

    Basically the issue is that DeMar has been groomed to be Kobe when he really should be trying to be Rip. Both guys have similar skillsets, DeMar is stronger but Rip was probably quicker. This is why I hate reading that DeMar and Gay can't coexist because both of them need the ball. People need to understand that DeMar DOESN'T need the ball, in fact his skillset warrants playing him off it. Run him off screens for mid-range Js or quick slashes to the bucket, let him post up smaller guards, and also make use of the corner 3. Those skills are more valuable on a contender than simply having a 3+D player. 3+D is cool and all when LeBron is on your team and can orchestrate your entire offense for you, but ask Danny Green or even Paul George how much fun they had trying to use the in between game in the playoffs when they have 0 ability to do anything between 10-23 feet? That's where playoff games are won, mid-range.

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    You make a great case Xixak.
    I love the comparison. If Demar can sit down and watch some film on Rip and how Rip moved off the ball (one of the best in the game), then that could add a whole other level to Demars game.
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Basically the issue is that DeMar has been groomed to be Kobe when he really should be trying to be Rip.
    This is a great point that I think alot of young players should take note of as well.

    Rip wasn't seen as a 'sexy' player, but he most certainly was effective.
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    This is a great point that I think alot of young players should take note of as well.

    Rip wasn't seen as a 'sexy' player, but he most certainly was effective.
    i dont know where raptors fans keep getting these ideas from. demar hasnt been groomed to be anyone but demar. demar has his own playstyle as much as rip, kobe, anyone has.

    you all go off to use PER %s as a measure of how shit he is. you all talk like if his PER #s dont match kobe or lebron, he must obviously be the worst player on earth. people bitch about his 3pt performance, so what? since when are threes required to win games? He shot more threes than Tony Parker and Dwayne Wade, are you going to sit there and tell me they are also shit players?

    its stupid that people feel they can make a point when they nitpick specific PER statistics to make someone look bad. what ever happened to using real, physical numbers; ie POINTS, the thing that actually wins you games?

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...3_leaders.html

    Top 20 in the entire league in FGM?
    7th in the league behind Lebron James in FTM?
    11th in the league in total points? 21st in PPG (0.1 behind rudy gay)?

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    Quote phez wrote: View Post
    i dont know where raptors fans keep getting these ideas from. demar hasnt been groomed to be anyone but demar. demar has his own playstyle as much as rip, kobe, anyone has.

    you all go off to use PER %s as a measure of how shit he is. you all talk like if his PER #s dont match kobe or lebron, he must obviously be the worst player on earth. people bitch about his 3pt performance, so what? since when are threes required to win games? He shot more threes than Tony Parker and Dwayne Wade, are you going to sit there and tell me they are also shit players?

    its stupid that people feel they can make a point when they nitpick specific PER statistics to make someone look bad. what ever happened to using real, physical numbers; ie POINTS, the thing that actually wins you games?

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...3_leaders.html

    Top 20 in the entire league in FGM?
    7th in the league behind Lebron James in FTM?
    11th in the league in total points? 21st in PPG (0.1 behind rudy gay)?
    It's overly simplistic to reduce DeMar to "Rip + free throws." Rip had a very specific (and limited) role on a great team, which he played very effectively. DeMar is definitely much more versatile and needs to keep striving to improve all facets of his game. The team should use him in whatever way they need him (they already do run him off a lot of screens for spot ups - this has recently been covered in some posts on the main page - I'm not sure why it's being presented as a new idea here).

    The most interesting thing I find here is that Rip was always praised for his "effective" and "efficient" role, when he shot at the same percentages as DeMar, who is ripped (see what I did there?) by his own fanbase for his inefficiency. The league has sure changed in the last 10 years.

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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I actually did talk about pace right here:

    "Also, if anyone cares, the Pistons and Raptors both played at the 24th fastest pace in these respective seasons (although overall league pace was lower back in 03-04)."



    Rip in 03-04 was definitely a better passer than DeRozan is right now, but let's not forget that was his 5th season and he actually saw quite a big jump in assists that year (he averaged about 2.8 in the previous 4 seasons), and was much more prone to turning over the ball as a result of that. As we both acknowledged, the Pistons played at a little slower pace than the Raptors did last year and used less possessions, but despite this Rip still turned the ball over just under 3 times per game and his ast/to ratio of 1.48 was only marginally higher than DeMar's of 1.33.




    Win Shares are largely impacted by how good the team you play on is. If you move a player to a better team and give them the same role (which is exactly what happened with Rip when he moved from WAS to DET), their win shares will increase. This is why his WS/48 jumped from 0.087 in his last season with a 37 win Washington team, to 0.141 with the NBA Champion Detroit Pistons. Rip's DWS in his last year in Washington was 0.6 compared to 1.6 for DeMar last season.

    This isn't some isolated case, for example Chauncey Billups never posted a DWS higher than 1.5 before joining the Pistons in 02-03, then posted a 4.2 DWS in 03-04 when the Pistons peaked defensively (he has never touched that mark since in his career).

    DWS really doesn't measure individual defense at all (neither does dRTG btw). It just gives high marks to players that play a ton of minutes on good defensive teams, some examples:

    Zach Randolph (10th in DWS last season because Memphis ranked 2nd in defense last year. Funny enough, Gasol was 2nd in the league, Conley 7th and Tony Allen 14th... this order also happens to directly coincide with their minutes played.)

    Carlos Boozer (13th in DWS last year, Bulls were 6th in defense, don't think anybody actually considers Boozer to be some sort of elite defender)
    You may have mentioned pace, but didn't make it relevant. (just claiming a rank doesn't mean anything as rankings change year to year - but the actual value stays the same) Detroit (03/04) vs Toronto (last season) is a difference of 2.5 possessions per game - thats 205 possessions in a season. Plus a minutes differential in the two players (minor, but 1.5 minutes per game is approx 3+ possession in and of itself). That all adds up. The more possessions you see the more opportunities you have to rebound, score points, get assists etc.

    Rip's passing went from 17% the season before to 22%. He isn't just a better passer than Demar, he was a signficantly better passer - and he did it, as the difference in ortg show, on a worse offensive team, which is the opposite of what seemed to claim initially (Rips worst assist% to that point, and for his career if that matters, was/has been better than Demar's best passing year)

    To show this relationship you claim an a:to ratio of 1.48 to 1.33. But when we use %s it changes to 1.7 to 1.25 or almost 40% better than Demar. It should be noted that is not a minor difference (historically elite level PGs have 4:1 assist to turnover ratios, but 'average' PGs are usually in the 2:1 range. 'average' Cs are often in the 1:1 range)

    You are welcome to dislike WS (of any sort), thats fine - I have a preference for it because its shown to be the most predictable of the easily available metrics. I just thought its worth pointing out there are metrics beyond PER to consider aswell. Why PER was included and not WS seemed rather convient given they were both sitting right there to use (and PER has itself been shown to be the worst of the easily available metrics - at both making predictions AND explaining what happened).

    When we look at Rip vs Demar's numbers we see that while any one # (aside from assists) aren't that far apart, Rip nickle and dimes him on most #s, and then blows him away in his passing #s.

    Just a note:

    don't think anybody actually considers Boozer to be some sort of elite defender
    confirmation bias doesn't = evidence.
    Last edited by Craiger; Mon Sep 23rd, 2013 at 11:50 AM.

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    Quote phez wrote: View Post
    i dont know where raptors fans keep getting these ideas from. demar hasnt been groomed to be anyone but demar. demar has his own playstyle as much as rip, kobe, anyone has.

    you all go off to use PER %s as a measure of how shit he is. you all talk like if his PER #s dont match kobe or lebron, he must obviously be the worst player on earth. people bitch about his 3pt performance, so what? since when are threes required to win games? He shot more threes than Tony Parker and Dwayne Wade, are you going to sit there and tell me they are also shit players?

    its stupid that people feel they can make a point when they nitpick specific PER statistics to make someone look bad. what ever happened to using real, physical numbers; ie POINTS, the thing that actually wins you games?

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...3_leaders.html

    Top 20 in the entire league in FGM?
    7th in the league behind Lebron James in FTM?
    11th in the league in total points? 21st in PPG (0.1 behind rudy gay)?
    Not hating on Demar, but if he is an inefficient shooter, then he may be scoring in bunches, but there are only so many shots a game. If he and Rudy shoot over 50% of the shots, but their poor shooting percentage means that the Raps hit a lower % of their total shots, then if both teams shoot 95 times, the other team wins.

    That's one of the reasons to push DeMar to improve his 3pt %. You can miss more and still score at a higher rate because each shot is worth more. Just under 24 ft to the basket for most of the arc. So why is DeMar shooting from 21 ft out at a 38% clip when he could be shooting from 24 at 30%, and score 50% more for each shot that goes in? Just bad decision making. Or why shoot from inside the top of the arc at 22 ft when he could be shooting a 3 pt shot from the base line at 22 ft?

    there's no hate in these questions, just wondering why the right decisions aren't being made.

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