But if you look through this particular thread you have people who question DeRozan's place on the Raptors having to continously explain their position (or have others do it for them) based upon false assumptions and/or dismissed previous points.
But definitely agree overall (i.e. outside this thread) your point.
"You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"Bruno Caboclo
Now you mention that Rip is a smaller sample, absolutely true. But in terms of a quality basketball player, would you rather have a player who can shoot but doesn't as often or a player that can't shoot yet lets it fly? If you look at Demar's per36 shot attempts and his 3PT%, he falls somewhere between Josh McRoberts and Chris Bosh in terms of 3 point ability.
SO many questions are going to be answered by January
Especially when you take into account that Rip's combined percentage through his first 5 seasons is under 30%, it's pretty unrealistic to suggest that he was a good three point shooter before his 45.8% percent season (and 37%+ for the rest of his career).
That said, +100 to Xixak, for getting some interesting discussion going when absolutely every possible off-season topic has been exhausted.
Last edited by golden; Wed Sep 25th, 2013 at 03:42 PM.
The fact is, regardless of the quantity of shots taken, Demar has so far proven to be a poor shooter from 3PT range, and that is unlikely to trend upwards like Rip did, because Rip at least demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size.
500+ shots are more indicative of his shooting ability than 42.
I really don't like this notion of "demonstrated he could hit the shots in a small sample size". I could just as easily say that DeMar demonstrated he could hit the three last season when he went 9 for 18 in the last month of the season.
Last edited by Xixak; Thu Sep 26th, 2013 at 09:06 AM.
As for 500+ shots, Demar has attempted 280 in his 4 year career, so you'll have to wait until year 7 or 8 to determine if he is a good 3Pt shooter, but the reality is, you can't wait 7 years to find out if you have a good player or not. Front Offices have to make that decision using smaller sample sizes because otherwise you end up with Andrea Bargnani on your team.
If we take Demar's 280 shot attempts over 4 years, he is still only a 23.9% 3Pt shooter. Rip went 116 for 384 in his first 4 years, good for 30.2%. Even though 30% isn't fantastic, it's a stretch to say that Demar can achieve similar stats as Rip moving forward. Even if Demar was to progress at the same rate of Rip, he still wouldn't become a good 3PT shooter, because 24% is pretty awful.
Another thing to consider, if you look at Rip's first 6 seasons, when he attempted less than 100 3PT attempts per season, he hit over 30%. When he attempted more, he shot less than 30%. Demar shot 120 3's last year and shot a poor (yet career high) 28.3%. Perhaps the Demar needs to learn when to shoot and that Rip's basketball IQ was higher. Demar is the superior athlete by far, but Rip seems to be the smarter player in terms of shot selection even when just looking at his early career numbers. That is to be expected when you draft an upperclassmen vs a freshman, but it doesn't change the reality.
Demar's greatest asset is still the mid-range game and his free throw %. His finishing at the hoop vs looking for foul calls has been long discussed in other threads, but until Demar becomes a consistent threat to actually finish, his excellent FT% is diminished. That leaves the mid-range 2, which is the least efficient shot in basketball.
I think Demar can be a valuable contributor, but as this roster stands, his one dimensional game is still more of a liability than an asset.
Alright not continuing this discussion. Any bit of optimism about DeMar is just dismissed around here, same deal on RealGM. I'm not even sure how this thread simplified to a discussion about his 3 point shooting. I guess that was done to take away from the fact that he is statistically very similar to a highly regarded, former NBA champion SG in his championship season.
His 3pt shot was just something I mentioned at the end of the comparison. Rip was able to improve from a sub 30 shooter to near 40% for the remainder of his career including a 46% season. Not unrealistic to assume DeMar could make an improvement as well. Probably not to 45%, but why not 35% or so?
If you look historically, it's pretty hard to find players (post 2000) that were very effective mid-range shooters, who didn't at least develop a passable three point shot at some point in their careers. The only one I can think of off hand is Wade, but maybe that's just selective thinking on my part trying to make DeMar look better as usual.
Last edited by Xixak; Fri Sep 27th, 2013 at 02:01 AM.
Optimism is good to have, but so is realism. You are providing stats to prove your point of view, and I am provided counter stats. You have said to many replies (on many threads) that you want someone to bring stats/facts to back up their disagreement with your point. So I have. Isn't that the point of a forum, for us to share and discuss? Perhaps what you really want is your own column where you can provide your opinions without any comments?
The only thing Rip and Demar have in common is their mid-range game, and I'm not talking about stats here, I'm talking about as players. To extrapolate Demar's career because of this one similarity (and no, average size for his position doesn't count as a similarity) is too far of a stretch to me (and others). Demar is a super athletic winger who works hard, yet hasn't developed any NBA level skills beyond mid-range shooting, free throw shooting and dunks. Rip was never the athlete that Demar is (not even close) but was a highly skilled and intelligent player. With Demar's athleticism, he should be aiming for more than Rip, but he clearly doesn't have the skills to match Rip. We should be more worried that he'll end up like JR Rider than expect him to end up like Rip.
The point of this wasn't so much to project DeMar's career and say he's going to be a 37% 3PT shooter for his career in the future. The point was to show to everyone who says we can't win with DeRozan on this team, that that's not actually true at all. You don't always need to have a 3+D shooting guard. Sometimes it's actually more effective for you to have a 2 who can produce at a high rate from mid-range and also get to the free throw line. The number of players who can do that nowadays are few and far between.
Isaiah Rider is a pretty bad comparison considering he only ever had 2 seasons where he shot less than 35% from 3 (32 and 31%). Not sure why you brought him up...
Last edited by Xixak; Fri Sep 27th, 2013 at 08:33 AM.
Demar - 6'7 220 SG - drafted 9th overall
Both guys drafted as athletic 2 guards with high upside.
Both excelled at getting to the rim early in their careers, 4.0 vs 4.2 FTA per 36 mins in their rookie season, and were good FT shooters hitting 81.2% and 81.1% respectively.
Both have career averages of around 32 Mins per game over their careers, both averaged about 35 mins per game in their 2nd season.
Averaged Total Rebounds per 36 at 4.7 and 4.8 in their rookie season.
Both averaged around the same number of FGA per game (14, 16, 16 and 14, 14, 15) early in their careers (Years 1-3 and years 2-4).
Both have career usage % of around 25% (Demar is 23%, Rider is 26%).
Yet, JR Rider was a better passer 2.85 assist per game in years 1-4, vs 1.8 for Demar. JR Rider was a better 3PT shooter, posting 36% in his rookie season (on 150 shots) and finished as a 35.2% 3PT shooter.
So tell me, why can Demar follow Rip Hamilton's career but not JR Rider's?
Also what was wrong with Isaiah Rider's career? (I actually don't know, his career started before I was born). All I know is he had drug problems, aside from that what was wrong with him on the court?
Last edited by Xixak; Fri Sep 27th, 2013 at 09:27 AM.
I believe what people have said, myself included, is this TEAM can't win as currently constructed.
The ceiling appears to be a 2nd round appearance at the absolute best.
The Raptors have no financial flexibility assuming Gay does not opt out and Lowry re-signs. They have no tradeable assets that you'd actually be able to give up and keep the core in place. If Lowry and Gay walks, then the team is back to basement dweller.
DeRozan is a spoke in the wheel of the Raptors mediocrity. His average production on offense combined with his minimal contribution elsewhere and his new heft contract about to kick in is just another example of the factors limiting the Raptors ceiling.
When looking at the Pistons:
in 2002, already had Ben Wallace, they signed Billups and Okur, traded for Hamilton, and drafted Prince,
in 2003, they re-signed Rip,
in 2004,For DeRozan to thrive in the circumstances you are advocating the Raptors/Ujiri need to go out and get a rugged stretch 4 who can hit the three for scraps.February 19 2004
Traded guards Chucky Atkins and Lindsey Hunter, a first-round pick and cash to the Boston Celtics and guard Bob Sura and center Zeljko Rebraca to the Atlanta Hawks for Mike James from the Boston Celtics and forward Rasheed Wallace from the Atlanta Hawks.
I really don't like those odds considering the premium on those types of players today.... but I'd love to be wrong.
"You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"Bruno Caboclo
JR Rider was a good (enough) player to score in the NBA. He was never an all-star, despite being all-rookie NBA first team, the 1994 Slam Dunk Champ. He technically won a ring with the Lakers, although he wasn't even active during the playoffs that year and quickly disappeared into obscurity.
Last edited by Axel; Fri Sep 27th, 2013 at 09:44 AM.
And I don't expect DeRozan to ever make an all-star game. (Unless Silver decides to injury replace him in or something in 2016 to get an extra Raptor in).
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