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DeMar DeRozan vs. Rip Hamilton

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  • #76
    Axel wrote: View Post
    This is why the conversation has largely steered towards 3PT shooting. And isn't that bolded statement an attempt to extrapolate Demar's career trajectory?



    JR Rider - 6'5 217 SG - drafted 5th overall
    Demar - 6'7 220 SG - drafted 9th overall

    Both guys drafted as athletic 2 guards with high upside.

    Both excelled at getting to the rim early in their careers, 4.0 vs 4.2 FTA per 36 mins in their rookie season, and were good FT shooters hitting 81.2% and 81.1% respectively.

    Both have career averages of around 32 Mins per game over their careers, both averaged about 35 mins per game in their 2nd season.

    Averaged Total Rebounds per 36 at 4.7 and 4.8 in their rookie season.

    Both averaged around the same number of FGA per game (14, 16, 16 and 14, 14, 15) early in their careers (Years 1-3 and years 2-4).

    Both have career usage % of around 25% (Demar is 23%, Rider is 26%).

    Yet, JR Rider was a better passer 2.85 assist per game in years 1-4, vs 1.8 for Demar. JR Rider was a better 3PT shooter, posting 36% in his rookie season (on 150 shots) and finished as a 35.2% 3PT shooter.

    So tell me, why can Demar follow Rip Hamilton's career but not JR Rider's?
    EDIT: All I said in the bold statement was that it isn't impossible for DeMar to improve his three point shooting, like many here have suggested. I understand your perspective that Rip shot 30% on his first 500 which isn't as bad as DeRozan. But DeRozan has also only taken about half that many. You could also look at it as, Rip improved after taking 500 threes, so why couldn't DeMar improve after 280?

    Also what was wrong with Isaiah Rider's career? (I actually don't know, his career started before I was born). All I know is he had drug problems, aside from that what was wrong with him on the court?
    Last edited by Xixak; Fri Sep 27, 2013, 09:27 AM.

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    • #77
      Xixak wrote: View Post
      I don't think I extrapolated DeMar's career. All I did was compare two seasons. The Pistons were able to win a championship with a 2 guard producing at about the same volume and efficiency as DeRozan. Rip also used up the same % of the salary cap.

      The point of this wasn't so much to project DeMar's career and say he's going to be a 37% 3PT shooter for his career in the future. The point was to show to everyone who says we can't win with DeRozan on this team, that that's not actually true at all. You don't always need to have a 3+D shooting guard. Sometimes it's actually more effective for you to have a 2 who can produce at a high rate from mid-range and also get to the free throw line. The number of players who can do that nowadays are few and far between.

      Isaiah Rider is a pretty bad comparison considering he only ever had 2 seasons where he shot less than 35% from 3 (32 and 31%). Not sure why you brought him up...
      Who has said that?

      I believe what people have said, myself included, is this TEAM can't win as currently constructed.

      The ceiling appears to be a 2nd round appearance at the absolute best.

      The Raptors have no financial flexibility assuming Gay does not opt out and Lowry re-signs. They have no tradeable assets that you'd actually be able to give up and keep the core in place. If Lowry and Gay walks, then the team is back to basement dweller.

      DeRozan is a spoke in the wheel of the Raptors mediocrity. His average production on offense combined with his minimal contribution elsewhere and his new heft contract about to kick in is just another example of the factors limiting the Raptors ceiling.

      When looking at the Pistons:
      in 2002, already had Ben Wallace, they signed Billups and Okur, traded for Hamilton, and drafted Prince,
      in 2003, they re-signed Rip,
      in 2004,
      February 19 2004
      Traded guards Chucky Atkins and Lindsey Hunter, a first-round pick and cash to the Boston Celtics and guard Bob Sura and center Zeljko Rebraca to the Atlanta Hawks for Mike James from the Boston Celtics and forward Rasheed Wallace from the Atlanta Hawks.

      http://hoopshype.com/general_managers/joe_dumars.htm
      For DeRozan to thrive in the circumstances you are advocating the Raptors/Ujiri need to go out and get a rugged stretch 4 who can hit the three for scraps.

      I really don't like those odds considering the premium on those types of players today.... but I'd love to be wrong.

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      • #78
        Matt52 wrote: View Post
        Who has said that?

        I believe what people have said, myself included, is this TEAM can't win as currently constructed.

        The ceiling appears to be a 2nd round appearance at the absolute best.

        The Raptors have no financial flexibility assuming Gay does not opt out and Lowry re-signs. They have no tradeable assets that you'd actually be able to give up and keep the core in place. If Lowry and Gay walks, then the team is back to basement dweller.

        DeRozan is a spoke in the wheel of the Raptors mediocrity. His average production on offense combined with his minimal contribution elsewhere and his new heft contract about to kick in is just another example of the factors limiting the Raptors ceiling.

        When looking at the Pistons:
        in 2002, already had Ben Wallace, they signed Billups and Okur, traded for Hamilton, and drafted Prince,
        in 2003, they re-signed Rip,
        in 2004,

        For DeRozan to thrive in the circumstances you are advocating the Raptors/Ujiri need to go out and get a rugged stretch 4 who can hit the three for scraps.

        I really don't like those odds considering the premium on those types of players today.... but I'd love to be wrong.
        Tag Matt, you're up



        JR Rider was a good (enough) player to score in the NBA. He was never an all-star, despite being all-rookie NBA first team, the 1994 Slam Dunk Champ. He technically won a ring with the Lakers, although he wasn't even active during the playoffs that year and quickly disappeared into obscurity.
        Last edited by Axel; Fri Sep 27, 2013, 09:44 AM.
        Heir, Prince of Cambridge

        If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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        • #79
          Xixak wrote: View Post
          EDIT: All I said in the bold statement was that it isn't impossible for DeMar to improve his three point shooting, like many here have suggested. I understand your perspective that Rip shot 30% on his first 500 which isn't as bad as DeRozan. But DeRozan has also only taken about half that many. You could also look at it as, Rip improved after taking 500 threes, so why couldn't DeMar improve after 280?

          Also what was wrong with Isaiah Rider's career? (I actually don't know, his career started before I was born). All I know is he had drug problems, aside from that what was wrong with him on the court?


          Has anyone, let alone 'many', even suggested its 'impossible' for Demar to improve his 3pt shooting?

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          • #80
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            Who has said that?

            I believe what people have said, myself included, is this TEAM can't win as currently constructed.

            The ceiling appears to be a 2nd round appearance at the absolute best.

            The Raptors have no financial flexibility assuming Gay does not opt out and Lowry re-signs. They have no tradeable assets that you'd actually be able to give up and keep the core in place. If Lowry and Gay walks, then the team is back to basement dweller.

            DeRozan is a spoke in the wheel of the Raptors mediocrity. His average production on offense combined with his minimal contribution elsewhere and his new heft contract about to kick in is just another example of the factors limiting the Raptors ceiling.

            When looking at the Pistons:
            in 2002, already had Ben Wallace, they signed Billups and Okur, traded for Hamilton, and drafted Prince,
            in 2003, they re-signed Rip,
            in 2004,

            For DeRozan to thrive in the circumstances you are advocating the Raptors/Ujiri need to go out and get a rugged stretch 4 who can hit the three for scraps.

            I really don't like those odds considering the premium on those types of players today.... but I'd love to be wrong.
            Don't necessarily have to keep the team the same. I'm just saying that DeMar can be a part of the future of the team. He's only 24 years old (3 years older than Val).

            Axel wrote: View Post
            Tag Matt, you're up



            JR Rider was a good (enough) player to score in the NBA. He was never an all-star, despite being all-rookie NBA first team, the 1994 Slam Dunk Champ. He technically won a ring with the Lakers, although he wasn't even active during the playoffs that year and quickly disappeared into obscurity.
            Why did he disappear into obscurity? Was it the drug problems or his play?

            And I don't expect DeRozan to ever make an all-star game. (Unless Silver decides to injury replace him in or something in 2016 to get an extra Raptor in).

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            • #81
              Craiger wrote: View Post
              Has anyone, let alone 'many', even suggested its 'impossible' for Demar to improve his 3pt shooting?
              I would say so, yes. I've read it often enough.

              I agree with Matt52's team comments. Rip Hamilton had the same stats on a crap Wizards team - didn't help them achieve anything. Post-championship Pistons, he was the same player on crap Detroit teams - didn't help them achieve anything. But on that brief championship-calibre team? Absolutely he was a key cog and they couldn't have won without his spot-up shooting.

              It's crazy how hard it is to build a championship team. The same pieces in the wrong places and you're in the lottery....

              The key is to not overpay players who would only be 3rd-5th options on a championship-level team. That's where the Raptors are stuck right now. Aside from rookie contracts, they don't have anybody on great contracts. They go from reasonably paid at best (Amir) to dramatically overpaid (Rudy). It's pretty tough at this point to add the two all-star calibre (or better) players it would take to turn this roster into a contender.

              All that to say, I'm fine with not picking on DeMar too much. His contract's so-so, his production is okay - he could be a complimentary piece on a very good team if his role fit. This team still has no identity, needs to play much better defense this season, and needs 1-2 players who are considerably better than anyone currently on the roster. Until then, we can spin our wheels endlessly discussing the flaws of the middling players that make up the Toronto Raptors and watch this team miss the playoffs or flameout in the first round year after year after year. (Sound familiar?)
              "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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              • #82
                Xixak wrote: View Post
                Don't necessarily have to keep the team the same. I'm just saying that DeMar can be a part of the future of the team. He's only 24 years old (3 years older than Val).

                Why did he disappear into obscurity? Was it the drug problems or his play?

                And I don't expect DeRozan to ever make an all-star game. (Unless Silver decides to injury replace him in or something in 2016 to get an extra Raptor in).
                You don't expect a core guy making $9.5M to ever make an all-star game? Who's bashing now lol.

                Last year, non-rookie deal, All-Stars included guys like Tim Duncan $9.6M, Joakim Noah $11.3M, Tony Parker $12.5M. For $9.5 million per, I expect near all-star level production.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                • #83
                  Xixak wrote: View Post
                  Don't necessarily have to keep the team the same. I'm just saying that DeMar can be a part of the future of the team. He's only 24 years old (3 years older than Val).
                  I agree. Unless Ujiri works his magic yet again, the Raptors have little assets or flexibility to improve. Only way flexibility changes is if Gay and Lowry leave but then Raps are down 2 starters.



                  Xixak wrote: View Post
                  Why did he disappear into obscurity? Was it the drug problems or his play?

                  And I don't expect DeRozan to ever make an all-star game. (Unless Silver decides to injury replace him in or something in 2016 to get an extra Raptor in).
                  Attitude.
                  Poor choices.
                  Criminal activity - drugs, assault, gambling.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Axel wrote: View Post
                    You don't expect a core guy making $9.5M to ever make an all-star game? Who's bashing now lol.

                    Last year, non-rookie deal, All-Stars included guys like Tim Duncan $9.6M, Joakim Noah $11.3M, Tony Parker $12.5M. For $9.5 million per, I expect near all-star level production.
                    Yeah near all-star level production and making an all-star team aren't really the same thing.

                    The reason he'll never make it imo is because it's by Guards and PG/SG aren't separated. So with Wade, Rose, DWill, Wall, Rondo, Kyrie etc all in the east, his chances are pretty damn low.

                    DeRozan is paid about as much as the 4th option/4th or 5th highest paid player on most contenders btw.

                    Matt52 wrote: View Post
                    Attitude.
                    Poor choices.
                    Criminal activity - drugs, assault, gambling.
                    So why are we comparing DeMar to him... he's not really the type to have those problems.

                    Stats-wise, Rider looks good though

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                    • #85
                      Xixak wrote: View Post
                      Yeah near all-star level production and making an all-star team aren't really the same thing.

                      The reason he'll never make it imo is because it's by Guards and PG/SG aren't separated. So with Wade, Rose, DWill, Wall, Rondo, Kyrie etc all in the east, his chances are pretty damn low.

                      DeRozan is paid about as much as the 4th option/4th or 5th highest paid player on most contenders btw.



                      So why are we comparing DeMar to him... he's not really the type to have those problems.

                      Stats-wise, Rider looks good though
                      Point is, players that were better than Demar ended up no where. Choosing to say Demar will follow Rip's career path is just one of thousands of possibilities. JR Rider is just as likely an option.
                      Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                      If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                      • #86
                        Axel wrote: View Post
                        Point is, players that were better than Demar ended up no where. Choosing to say Demar will follow Rip's career path is just one of thousands of possibilities. JR Rider is just as likely an option.
                        But I never said DeMar will follow Rip's career path. I just compared Rip's championship season to DeMar's last year, and they were statistically very similar. I've also suggested using DeMar more like Rip and less like an isolation player.

                        And actually it's probably more likely that he would follow Rip's career path, since Rider ended up being out of the league due to attitude and drug issues according to Matt... I really can't see that happening to DeMar lol.

                        Rider was a key guy for the Blazers on the 98-99 team that went to the WCF though at least.

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                        • #87
                          DISCLAIMER: I haven't absorbed any of the stats cited in this thread.

                          IMO, despite both players relying on "mid-range" jumpers, I see Rip as much more polished in his ability to setup defenders, running off screens and getting open looks. He works just as hard without the ball as he does with the ball in his hands.

                          DeRozan, on the other hand, doesn't seem to run his routes as crisply, and therefore doesn't have the same window to get his shot off. But because of his athletic superiority, he does a better job of using his body and muscling his way to the hoop (something you rarely see with Rip).

                          I guess what I'm trying to say is that despite their superficial stats looking similar, I see a noticeable difference in their respective games to question the comparison.

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                          • #88
                            Xixak wrote: View Post
                            But I never said DeMar will follow Rip's career path. I just compared Rip's championship season to DeMar's last year, and they were statistically very similar. I've also suggested using DeMar more like Rip and less like an isolation player.

                            And actually it's probably more likely that he would follow Rip's career path, since Rider ended up being out of the league due to attitude and drug issues according to Matt... I really can't see that happening to DeMar lol.

                            Rider was a key guy for the Blazers on the 98-99 team that went to the WCF though at least.
                            I thought you said you weren't continuing this discussion?

                            The comment from your original post was: "So I'm really not sure why DeMar wouldn't be able to improve his 3-ball as well." To me that is a statement that Demar should be able to improve his 3PT shot because Rip was able to, thus using Rip's career path as a starting point for Demar's trajectory. If I'm wrong, that's cool, but it certainly comes across that way.

                            Like I said above, Rider has many statistical similarities to Demar, and was really a better scorer yet couldn't cut it. Someone earlier, Craiger maybe (I can't be bothered to go back and look) said that you were taking an exception (Rip) and discounting the norm. There are likely hundreds of players in the last 20 years, who could be similar to Derozan, and many of them would have ended up well below Rip. You're right, as far as we know, Derozan is a stand up guy and wont make the same bad decisions as JR Rider did, but there are still lots of other guys who didn't make all those bad decisions and ended up in roughly the same place.

                            You can't cherry pick the one player and say that is how this guy will develop, and you also can't wait for a guy to shoot 500+ 3s in his career to determine if he can shoot.

                            As to the bolded above, you can basically say that about every player on the team (less iso). ISO offence should be dead. It should have left the NBA with Allen Iverson. If any player on the Raps is in an iso play-set this season, I will facepalm. It is a terrible way to score. Using screens and lots of off-ball movement (which is all the Pistons did with Rip) should be the staple of every guard/forward in the league.
                            Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                            If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                            • #89
                              Great thread, alot of good points made by all the contributors.

                              I agree with Xixak that the Raps should use Demar more like the way the Pistons used Rip in their championship run. I think Demar would be a more effective player if he wasn't relied upon to create shots for himself or his teammates. If Rip was in Demar's role on this Raptors team last year (at age whatever that he was from the comparison) then I would guess that he would be even less 'effective' than Demar was. But Rip was a smart player on a very smart team. He did not play outside his game, and was put in a position to make the most of his abilities, as was every other player on that team which is why they defeated a great Lakers club and won the championship.

                              However, I still think that Demar should shoot less from the outside. Period. Although his mid-range game is arguably one of his better assets, most of his shots should come from within 16 ft. If the Raps aren't running their offence to facilitate this, then the real problem is with the way the team is playing. Demar, I believe, has alot more to work with offensively than Rip Hamilton has ever had. He should be a better slasher, driver, finisher, and post up player than Rip. I personally could care less if he ever develops a 3pt shot that rivals Rips. He should be playing closer to the basket on offence. If this was the case, then maybe some of his other 'deficient' stats may improve (i.e. assists, rebounds), as well as his percentages and overall effectiveness relative to his pay. (oh, and I don't think it is really fair to judge Demar by his production relative to his pay yet, as this season will be his first at $9.5m remember).

                              All that being said, I do have issues with making the comparison at all simply because these guys had different roles on very very different ball clubs. If last years Raps played more like the 03-04 Pistons, the comparison would be more warranted in my mind. And if the option was available to take last seasons DD, and trade him for the 03-04 Rip Hamilton, I bet the Pistons make that trade, well I would at least ( and maybe they dont win the championship and I'm a douche, but I would have taken the chance). I think Demar has a higher ceiling than Rip.

                              But, has the team ever really put Demar in the appropriate role. We use him as a 2nd option in a predominantly create for yourself situation, along with Rudy Gay which is really just a good way to lose games. This ISO business just isn't gonna work with this club, no more than it would have worked for the 03-04 Pistons.

                              Until the Raptors start playing a team oriented game, I find it difficult to make judgements regarding any of the players on the roster.

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                              • #90
                                I read an article on nba.com today about Rudy Gay

                                http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2013/0...ics-nightmare/

                                it had more to do about him being analytically one of the least efficient players in the league, but there was an interesting quote by DeMar in the article that basically said that last year he had a lot of early success posting up smaller SG's, until teams started guarding him with their SF's. Once Gay came along teams were forced to use their SF's on Gay and were then forced to use their SG's of DeMar. I'm really interested to see if DeMar will go back into the post this season because that is where I felt he was most effecting and efficient from last season. That's is also one of the reasons why I don't see the comparison between Rip and DeMar really being as close as what the stats say they are.

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