The Raptors and the 2014 Draft

[Employee]

Did you guys see this? Historical breakdowns of picks at that number. Here's twenty:

http://www.draftexpress.com/NBA-draf...-stats/20/PER/

I'd advise for your sanity to not look at #59.

Also the median PER stat they have is really cool. Shows what kind of player to expect. Historically speaking!

[Employee]

Lol, I feel you, but I prefer to look at the percentage of say, Chad Ford's tier 4 players that turn into starters.

I feel like those numbers don't really give an accurate idea of what's going to happen on a year to year or pick to pick basis.

That an insider thing?

[stooley]

That an insider thing?

I've seen that historic thing a lot, and I've kinda wracked my brain to figure out a better way to measure a specific draft or player, and I think looking how accurate these predictions are historically, is probably the best way. Now, I don't have the energy to do that, but maybe one day soon.

Tier 1

Joel Embiid
Jabari Parker
Andrew Wiggins

Last year, we didn't have any player in this category. This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars or "franchise" players. Since 2009, only Griffin, John Wall and Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there are three players in Tier 1 -- as many as there have been in the last five years combined. All of them received Tier 1 votes from every GM, exec and scout I surveyed. So if there is any consensus out there, it's that there are three really great prizes in this year's draft.


Tier 2

Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh

Last year, Tier 2 also was empty for the first time since I've been doing this column. That should tell you something about how poorly regarded last year's class was. Tier 2 is reserved for players who are projected as potential All-Stars by scouts. They are typical high lottery picks in a normal draft. In 2012, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all got the nod as Tier 2 players. In 2011, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were in this tier. This year, six players are here, which is a high number (as is the case with having three players in Tier 1). Two of these players -- Exum and Vonleh -- even got a couple of votes for Tier 1.

This is where the strength of the draft really shines, in my opinion. This means that NBA GMs, scouts and execs believe that there could be as many as nine potential All-Stars in the draft class, with three of them being franchise players. You have to go back more than a decade -- to the 2003 draft, where eight players ended up making an All-Star team -- to get a draft that loaded. While none of the players on the list are LeBron James-type players, there is incredible value here.

Tier 3

Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas

In 2013, we put the top six players in the draft in Tier 3: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Alex Len, Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter. That means that all nine guys listed in Tier 1 or Tier 2 would have been drafted ahead of the top six players in 2013.

This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. This year, this tier is a little on the small side. While there were a number of votes for various players for this tier, these were the only three who had a consensus. None of the Tier 3 players were voted on for Tier 2 status, and none of them were voted for Tier 4; that makes things pretty clean. All three should be gone before the lottery is through, with McDermott, especially, looking like a lock for the Top 10.

Tier 4

Tyler Ennis
Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young

Tier 4 typically includes late lottery picks to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft, or selections 10 through 20. These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.

Payton and Young got a small number of votes for Tier 3. Nurkic got a Tier 3 vote, as well. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Ennis and Payne were ranked as Tier 4 by every team I spoke with. LaVine, Hood, Nurkic and Porzingis had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority of their votes were in Tier 4.

for the record, tier 5 has like 20 guys, and they all predict to be decent rotation players, so if we could snag a couple picks in the late first or early 2nd, that could pan out well down the line.

[Employee]

yeah, ill hook you up.

Thanks!

[octothorp]

Remember when Ennis was a top-8 pick?

People have too short a memory. You have to take advantage of that.

It's the same deal with Capela and having one bad week at the Nike Hoop Summit, he got 4 fouls in like 5 minutes. So what? I'm sure he was hyped up having a chance to showcase himself.

Yeah, there's been some crazy yoyoing of prospects this year, because that middle prospect tier (anywhere from about 8-25) is so close. I think 8 was way too high for him, and 20 is too low, but I'll be happy if he falls. Same with Capela. I think there's a decent chance of some guy who's been often cited as a lottery pick falling to us. Whether that guy is the right choice for us is another matter.

[octothorp]

Also the median PER stat they have is really cool. Shows what kind of player to expect. Historically speaking!

Worth noting that with a median PER of 11.1, every spot from 21 to 29 has a higher median PER than #20. So historically #20 hasn't done particularly well at drafting the best players available; a 'best players available' median would reflect better on what's typically available at the #20 spot.

[stooley]

Worth noting that with a median PER of 11.1, every spot from 21 to 29 has a higher median PER than #20. So historically #20 hasn't done particularly well at drafting the best players available; a 'best players available' median would reflect better on what's typically available at the #20 spot.

yeah, that'd be another cool idea, probably the best bet for us trying to imagine a best case scenario

[mcHAPPY]

More STokes porn:

Jarnell Stokes – If you watched this year’s NCAA Tournament, there’s a good chance you know about Stokes. He was the monster for Tennessee who looked like a man among boys and consistently racked up double-doubles. Now, he’s performing similarly well in pre-draft workouts and seems to be solidifying himself as a first-round pick.

For much of the college season, Stokes was being projected as a second-rounder because teams worried that he was a bit undersized as a power forward and they weren’t sure if his skills would translate to the NBA. However, as teams have gotten a chance to see Stokes up close in workouts, they are confident that he can continue to be an interior force at the next level.

Stokes is 6’8.5 with a 7’1.25 wingspan, but it’s his mass and strength that separates him from a lot of big men. He weighs 263 lbs. and is incredibly strong, as evidenced by his 22 bench-press reps at the combine, where the all-time record is 27 reps.

His lower-body strength is ridiculous and his legs literally look like tree trunks, allowing him to move and overpower players who are bigger than him. What’s even more impressive is that Stokes says he had never really done squats until beginning his pre-draft training, which means he should be able to get even stronger once he enters an NBA development program.

Stokes is an excellent scorer and a beast on the offensive glass. He’s also young for a junior at 20 years old. Stokes has been on the NBA radar for quite awhile, since he was one of the top high school players in the 2011 class. This season at Tennessee, he averaged 15.1 points and 10.6 rebounds while shooting 53.1 percent from the field. Several years ago, he wanted to become more of perimeter player and modeled his game after Carmelo Anthony. However, he now understands that he’s at his best down low and he started studying film of Karl Malone and David West during his junior season.

Stokes is drawing interest from a number of teams in the 25-30 range, with the Miami HEAT said to really like him at No. 26. They’ve already worked him out once and are bringing him back for a second workout, which is why you’re starting to see Stokes to Miami in many mock drafts.

In a recent ESPN article by numbers guru Kevin Pelton, Stokes was rated the 12th-best prospect in terms of wins above replacement player projection.

Also, here’s a story to give you of an idea of Stokes’ toughness and competitiveness. He was recently being driven to a workout for the Indiana Pacers, when a car came out of nowhere and crashed into his vehicle. Stokes sustained a concussion, lacerations and his face was covered in blood, but he had to be talked into getting into an ambulance to go the hospital because he still wanted to make it to his Pacers workouts. Doctors told him that he would likely need to take three-to-four weeks off, but Stokes was back working out for teams one week later after reshuffling his schedule. That’s the kind of guy that I want on my team.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nb...s-on-the-rise/

[TrossTheBOSS]

Anyone know what's happening with Canadian Brady heslip? Is he staying in college or what?

[enlightenment]

More STokes porn:

And apparently he has a 3!

[grindhouse]

If u want a picture of stokes playing sf I would say the best comparison would be corliss williamson. Btw I don't think he can play that in the nba


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[octothorp]

Anyone know what's happening with Canadian Brady heslip? Is he staying in college or what?

He was a senior this year so he's done in college. But I've never heard him discussed as an NBA prospect, and I assume he's Europe-bound.

[Demographic Shift]

Chuck Hayes is a pretty bad comparison for Stokes. Stokes is more of a Sullinger type of player. Strong as an ox, great rebounder, great finisher inside. He can shoot the ball as well. My only concern w/ him is his height. He's 6'8. That's just too small for a PF in the NBA level.

Karl Malone was another 6'8" 260 LB power forward who had a pretty good career.

[white men can't jump]

Karl Malone was another 6'8" 260 LB power forward who had a pretty good career.

And he's supposedly modelling his game after Malone and David West, who are both not far off his size.

I don't know, I think Stokes has a chance to be better than his draft position even if we take him at 20. Probably a small chance though, but he also probably is a decent piece at worst, like a slightly better DeJuan Blair with knees.

[keefec]

Eh I think Stokes @ 20 is kind of way too high for him.. Realistically we could get perhaps Ennis/Payton and I would really prefer those guys over him.... I think Stokes will still be available at 37