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Thread: Demar, Gay, and JV show big gains in TS% during the preseason

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    Default Demar, Gay, and JV show big gains in TS% during the preseason

    I like TS%. It's one of my favorite stats. It takes into account 2-pt FG's, 3-pt FG's, and FT's, all into one simple to understand percentage that shows a players offensive efficiency. So I decided to take a look at 3 of our key players TS% during last years preseason, versus how they are doing 3 games into this current preseason. I'll update this thread periodically throughout the rest of the preseason to see if the guys can maintain their rather impressive TS% gains year over year.

    For reference:

    2012 preseason league average TS% 52%.
    2012-13 regular season league average TS% 53.6%.

    Demar 2013 Preseason TS% 62.25%
    Demar 2012 Preseason TS% 53.50%
    Demar 2012 Regular Season 52.30%

    Demar has been the breakout star on the team this preseason and his TS% backs that up (+8.75%). I've been blown away and wouldn't be surprised if he efficiently averages over 20 points per game this year. Demar went from a league average TS% last year (which he maintained in the regular season) to a phenomenal TS% so far this year. For context, Harden had the best TS% for a SG that scores a lot and his TS% was 59.8% last year.

    Rudy 2013 Preseason TS% 58.17%
    Rudy 2012 Preseason TS% 42.37%
    Rudy 2012 Regular Season 49.40%

    Despite a lackluster FG% in the preseason so far (44.8%, two games sub 40%), Rudy has been above average in TS%. That's why I like TS% so much, it gives you the real picture. Rudy shows the biggest improvement year over year (+15.8%), which is no doubt partially due to being on Toronto and not Memphis, as he saw a bump in his TS% on the season after the trade (51.3% vs 47.8%), as well as his increased willingness to attack the basket (Rudy has the same amount of FTA through 3 games this preseason as he did in his 6 games last preseason). If Rudy continues to attack the basket in the regular season, he can be an above average efficiency scorer even if he has a poor FG%.

    Jonas 2013 Preseason TS% 65.41%
    Jonas 2012 Preseason TS% 57.98%
    Jonas 2012 Regular Season 61.90%

    Jonas was the only one to improve upon his TS% from the preseason during the regular season. This makes sense being last preseason he was a rookie getting his first NBA minutes. So far this preseason Jonas has been even better than last year, putting up a stellar TS% (+7.43%). For reference, Brooke Lopez had a TS% of 65.45% last preseason.

    All of this TS% analysis leads me to believe that we should be pretty optimistic about our 3 key players on offense this year. Demar looks poised for a breakout season, Rudy looks poised to return to 2010 form, and JV looks poised to continue to improve upon last years numbers.
    Last edited by Primer; Sat Oct 12th, 2013 at 06:08 PM.

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    Four games is still a very small sample size especially since they haven't played heavy minutes. You shouldn't put too much faith in the increase in true shooting percentage until you have a bigger sample size in the regular season when you have them playing more minutes and when games actually mean everyone. When you have a bigger sample size, they have played proper minutes and they have still shown that they have increased their true shooting, then you can celebrate their actual improvement. Until then, this isn't really saying much.

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    Yeah, I'm on board with you there. The preseason really doesn't mean much, but I'm so excited for basketball being back that I figured I'd check this out. Even though it doesn't mean much, it's always better to see positive stats than negative, so I was pleasantly surprised that DD, Gay, and JV were doing so well. Especially since most people have been critical of Gay's performance in the preseason, yet he's shooting a better TS% than he ever has in his career, by a wide margin. Bad FG% does not equal inefficient if you're making a ton of FT's, which Gay has been.

    Basically I agree we should take this with a grain of salt, but it's fun to look at for now, and thankfully the results are actually positive so far. Here's the updated TS% after game 4.

    Rudy Gay TS% 58.44%

    Demar Derozan TS% 61.41%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 68.57%

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    There's going to be one game where Rudy's going to go 2/17 and a lot of head shaking will result....

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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    Yeah, I'm on board with you there. The preseason really doesn't mean much, but I'm so excited for basketball being back that I figured I'd check this out. Even though it doesn't mean much, it's always better to see positive stats than negative, so I was pleasantly surprised that DD, Gay, and JV were doing so well. Especially since most people have been critical of Gay's performance in the preseason, yet he's shooting a better TS% than he ever has in his career, by a wide margin. Bad FG% does not equal inefficient if you're making a ton of FT's, which Gay has been.

    Basically I agree we should take this with a grain of salt, but it's fun to look at for now, and thankfully the results are actually positive so far. Here's the updated TS% after game 4.

    Rudy Gay TS% 58.44%

    Demar Derozan TS% 61.41%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 68.57%
    Appreciate this. Would love to see you keep it up. This might be more significant than it seems at first glance since you are demonstrating a pre-season to pre-season improvement.

    Certainly DeMar seems to have made some strides with different parts of his game. JV would be expected to grow. Both DeMar and Rudy attacking the basket more would seem to be the result of an emphasis from Casey. If it is his intention to use those two that way it only bodes well for the Raptors since they are both decent FT shooters.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    Quote drunkmunky wrote: View Post
    There's going to be one game where Rudy's going to go 2/17 and a lot of head shaking will result....
    All will be forgiven because that second shot will have been the Game winner

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    I know this isn't your intention, but this is partially why some people don't believe in stats. You're presenting numbers from a four game sample and making inferences. I'm no statistician, but that is highly irresponsible. Again, I know it's not your intention and you're excited, but this is not what the numbers are for.

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    Quote ddaylewis wrote: View Post
    ...I'm no statistician, but that is highly irresponsible...
    Highly irresponsible is not locking up the liquor cabinet when you go away for the weekend and you leave your teenage children at home with an admonishment to "don't get into any trouble you guys."

    Making inferences by comparing pre-season game stats from one year to pre-season game stats of the following year is provocative, or controversial, not irresponsible.

    Last edited by Puffer; Tue Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:58 AM.

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    thats just too deep

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    This is pretty cool. It would be interesting to see if there is a correlation between preseason to preason and the regular season for more than 2 years. There should be enough data with Rudy and DeMar to check that out...

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    Hate to shit on the parade - but a large portion of the TS% increase would likely be due to the massive amount of fouls called and free throws made... If these four games were played in the regular season they may break NBA records as far as total fouls called over that stretch. Sadly the players are rusty and the it's preseason for the referees too...

    That being said it will be interesting to see if the current anomaly stands up for the rest of preseason into the first week or two of the season. Gawd I hope it does.
    When Tom Chambers dunks an NBA player gets their hops...

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    Quote Edgar wrote: View Post
    Hate to shit on the parade - but a large portion of the TS% increase would likely be due to the massive amount of fouls called and free throws made... If these four games were played in the regular season they may break NBA records as far as total fouls called over that stretch. Sadly the players are rusty and the it's preseason for the referees too...

    That being said it will be interesting to see if the current anomaly stands up for the rest of preseason into the first week or two of the season. Gawd I hope it does.
    Don't worry about the Parade, it's the preseason, so it's equivalent to practicing the parade around a school parking lot. I've just been really hungry for any kind of NBA basketball and looking at TS% over the preseason was a fun way to scratch that itch.
    I know there have been a plethora of fouls called in the preseason, but what is encouraging is that our guys are getting foul calls by attacking the basket, which should translate to the regular season. It'd be different if we were just getting a bunch of ticky tack foul calls on long fadeaway jumpers.

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    Update through 5 games:

    Rudy Gay TS% 61.44%

    Demar Derozan TS% 60.54%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 74.60%

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    Quote Primer wrote: View Post
    Update through 5 games:

    Rudy Gay TS% 61.44%

    Demar Derozan TS% 60.54%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 74.60%
    Rudy climbed 3%

    Demar dropped 1.75%

    JV climbed 9%

    But it doesn't mean anything. :-)

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    Update through 6 games

    Rudy Gay TS% 63.69%

    Demar Derozan TS% 61.43%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 65.52%

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    Update through 7 games:

    Rudy Gay TS% 63.34%

    Demar Derozan TS% 62.97%

    Jonas Valanciunas TS% 65.17%

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    Numbers are holding up pretty well through the preseason. Now you have everyone with unreal expectations.

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    I don't expect to them to keep this TS% especially since there will be more pressure to win and more minutes to be played. This is just pre-season, but these are still encouraging signs nonetheless. I expect JV's TS% to fall a little this year mainly because he will be getting more touches than last year.

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    Quote Blacklash2k4 wrote: View Post
    I don't expect to them to keep this TS% especially since there will be more pressure to win and more minutes to be played. This is just pre-season, but these are still encouraging signs nonetheless. I expect JV's TS% to fall a little this year mainly because he will be getting more touches than last year.
    Expect to see Amir's fall as well, what with him shooting three's at a 30% rate

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    Bumping this tread.

    Wanted to see what the TS% numbers were like after 8 regular season games.

    DeMar - 44.9%
    Rudy - 43.7%
    JV - 53.0%

    Was surprised by JV's numbers. Completely not surprised by DD/RG. Those are awful numbers.

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