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Thread: MU says "wait and see" approach, how does the schedule play out?

  1. #61
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I've glanced at the schedule a few times but nothing ever serious.

    Just taking a serious look and I think 22 games is the magic point in the schedule for the Raptors.

    While I'm firmly in the "trade for prospects and picks" camp, I don't think Masai can go that route without making it look like he tried to build with what he has first. Looking at the intense debate that has gone on with that topic here on the forums is a pretty good indication of how this topic strikes a nerve with some fans. By sticking with the first 20 games it can appear to the "Builders" that he tried and by leaving the last 62 games of the season he can still "Tank".

    Why the first 22 games? Here is their schedule:

    Wed 30 vs Boston
    Fri 1 @ Atlanta
    Sat 2 @ Milwaukee
    Tue 5 vs Miami
    Wed 6 @ Charlotte
    Fri 8 @ Indiana
    Sat 9 vs Utah
    Mon 11 @ Houston
    Wed 13 @ Memphis
    Fri 15 vs Chicago

    Sun 17 vs Portland
    Wed 20 @ Philadelphia
    Fri 22 vs Washington
    Tue 26 vs Brooklyn
    Fri 29 vs Miami

    Sun 1 vs Denver
    Tue 3 @ Golden State
    Fri 6 @ Phoenix
    Sun 8 @ L.A. Lakers

    Tue 10 vs San Antonio
    Fri 13 vs Philadelphia
    Sat 14 @ Chicago


    6 games versus the top 4 teams in the East:
    2 games versus Miami
    1 game versus Indiana
    2 games versus Chicago
    1 game Brooklyn

    2 mini-west coast swings

    5 games versus teams fighting for final playoff spots in the east:
    1 vs Boston
    1 vs Atlanta
    1 vs Milwaukee
    1 vs Charlotte
    1 vs Washington

    2 games versus bottom feeder Philly

    4 games versus the better teams in the west:
    1 game vs San Antonio
    1 game vs Golden State
    1 game vs Houston
    1 game vs Memphis

    Given the schedule of the first 22 games, I think Ujiri will have a good indication of what this team can do. In my opinion, if they are not killing in through 22 (I mean 14-8 or better) you've got your indication of what to do with this team. Again, there is no cap space or financial flexibility to work with; keeping the core of this team means it is capped out and you are 100% relying on Ross and JV as the only means of growth with a window of 3-4 years before looking for a new PG and SF.

    As an aside, it takes them up to December 15th when free agents can be traded.
    You're ignoring the possiblity that Ujiri doesn't actually even care how the team performs, and either working or waiting for good deals that he can make, whether those deals lead to a tank or an attempt at contending.

    You're putting restrictions on what he could or couldn't do that don't actually exist.

  2. #62
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Might I ask how you know that Masai isn't willing to play .500 ball and try to build this team Daryl Morey style?

    Just curious, because that actually is one of many options he could pick.
    Because Morey had multiple 1st round picks and cap space at his disposal.

    The raptors would likely not be in that situation until 2015 and that assumes Lowry and Gay are not resigned. I don't think they are going to be looking to start a rebuild in all-star weekend year. It also leaves them with just one year of cap space before JVs extension kicks in.

    By retaining enough cap space for one max-level player after acquiring Harden, the Rockets successfully wooed Dwight Howard, which would have been much more difficult if Harden weren't already on the team. Furthermore, the Rockets acquired so many assets during their rebuilding process, such that they currently possess a solid supporting cast in place behind Harden and Howard, including Lin, Asik, Chandler Parsons, and more solid role players who should help the Rockets contend for the Finals this upcoming season.

    http://m.basketball.realgm.com/artic.../the-anti-tank
    The above article ignores the 2 summers of free agent strikeouts by Morey. It was not until they acquired star talent in harden did a big free agent sign.... And that was all about asset accumulation to get harden.

    The difference between toronto and Houston is:
    1) coaching: Adelman is one if the greatest and most underrated and Mchale is proving to be underrated as a coach as well.
    2) assets: toronto's only trade assets are the current core.
    3) financial flexibility: Houston had great cap management unlike raptors current roster
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sun Oct 27th, 2013 at 10:20 AM.

  3. #63
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    You're ignoring the possiblity that Ujiri doesn't actually even care how the team performs, and either working or waiting for good deals that he can make, whether those deals lead to a tank or an attempt at contending.

    You're putting restrictions on what he could or couldn't do that don't actually exist.
    Actually I am sharing a hypothesis/opinion in the hopes of spurring constructive conversation.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Because Morey had multiple 1st round picks and cap space at his disposal.

    The raptors would likely not be in that situation until 2015 and that assumes Lowry and Gay are not resigned. I don't think they are going to be looking to start a rebuild in all-star weekend year. It also leaves them with just one year of cap space before JVs extension kicks in.
    Actually Gay and Lowry could be signed and traded. Also you don't know whether Ujiri aims to make a significant move or set of moves this season or next.

    By retaining enough cap space for one max-level player after acquiring Harden, the Rockets successfully wooed Dwight Howard, which would have been much more difficult if Harden weren't already on the team. Furthermore, the Rockets acquired so many assets during their rebuilding process, such that they currently possess a solid supporting cast in place behind Harden and Howard, including Lin, Asik, Chandler Parsons, and more solid role players who should help the Rockets contend for the Finals this upcoming season.
    So it wouldn't be possible at all for Toronto to retain some pieces going forward (maybe DD, Ross, Valanciunas, Amir) and also make some constructive moves to free up cap space while flipping assets like Lowry and Gay for value maybe? Yes the Raptors don't have as many draft picks as Houston had, but we potentially have two players who could be more desirable in trades to contenders than Kevin Martin was for Houston.

    http://m.basketball.realgm.com/artic.../the-anti-tank

    The above article ignores the 2 summers of free agent strikeouts by Morey. It was not until they acquired star talent in harden did a big free agent sign.... And that was all about asset accumulation to get harden.
    So it wouldn't be possible for Ujiri to accumulate assets as well? Maybe that's his plan, we've seen a small dose of that already with flipping Andrea for a 2016 1st round pick, those are the kind of small deals that Morey made over time to get so many picks in the first place.

    The difference between toronto and Houston is:
    1) coaching: Adelman is one if the greatest and most underrated and Mchale is proving to be underrated as a coach as well.
    2) assets: toronto's only trade assets are the current core.
    3) financial flexibility: Houston had great cap management unlike raptors current roster
    Yeah obviously they're not the same team, but that doesn't mean Ujiri can't use some of the rebuilding tactics that Morey used particularly in terms of asset accumulation.

    1.) You do realize Casey is only signed for one more year, and we could go get a better coach right?
    2.) This is not true, not sure if we're allowed to trade our 2014 1st or not, but we have that, our 2015 1st and 2 in 2016. Additionally, there's nothing wrong with your core being used as trade assets. You've said you don't particularly like this core going forwards anyway. There's nothing wrong with flipping some of the core pieces in a deal (Houston dealt Lowry and Kevin Martin, they also let Scola and Dragic go), while retaining some core guys (Parsons), acquiring more (Lin, Asik) and giving your young guys some more chances (D-Mo, Beverley).
    3.) The Rockets rebuilding process started in 2009-10 (Yao's last season), a year in which they had a 73M payroll with extensions looming for Lowry and Scola. http://www.red94.net/houston-rockets...planation/556/. You can make moves to maneuver around flexibility, again you're placing limitations on what Ujiri can and can't do.

  5. #65
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    By the way, while there is a difference of opinion, this is a great reply, in my opinion.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Actually Gay and Lowry could be signed and traded. Also you don't know whether Ujiri aims to make a significant move or set of moves this season or next.
    Definitely possible. But might be tough to sign and trade in a year with some many teams have so much cap space. Teams have been preparing for years for the new CBA and punitive taxes many correctly anticipated. But definitely a possibility.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    So it wouldn't be possible at all for Toronto to retain some pieces going forward (maybe DD, Ross, Valanciunas, Amir) and also make some constructive moves to free up cap space while flipping assets like Lowry and Gay for value maybe? Yes the Raptors don't have as many draft picks as Houston had, but we potentially have two players who could be more desirable in trades to contenders than Kevin Martin was for Houston.
    Maybe. However, Do you think a raw Ross, DD, a still raw JV, and Amir are going to compete for .500 or slightly above as Houston did? Even with Bosh the Raptors were unable to break .500 in his last year. You brought up the comparison to Houston, I just don't see it being possible if Lowry and Gay are gone - at which point any comparison to Houston, in my opinion, is moot because the Raptors aren't competing. But you are right that maybe they can compete. Look at Denver. Best player goes, and they get better. Unfortunately, again, so many teams have cap space this summer and neither Lowry or Gay are on the same talent level of Carmelo.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    So it wouldn't be possible for Ujiri to accumulate assets as well? Maybe that's his plan, we've seen a small dose of that already with flipping Andrea for a 2016 1st round pick, those are the kind of small deals that Morey made over time to get so many picks in the first place.
    I hope so. I really do. It is what I want them to do with Lowry, Gay, and DD. But again, comparing to Houston, I don't see those pieces going out with the Raptors getting a return that keeps them in playoff/.500 contention.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Yeah obviously they're not the same team, but that doesn't mean Ujiri can't use some of the rebuilding tactics that Morey used particularly in terms of asset accumulation.

    1.) You do realize Casey is only signed for one more year, and we could go get a better coach right?
    2.) This is not true, not sure if we're allowed to trade our 2014 1st or not, but we have that, our 2015 1st and 2 in 2016. Additionally, there's nothing wrong with your core being used as trade assets. You've said you don't particularly like this core going forwards anyway. There's nothing wrong with flipping some of the core pieces in a deal (Houston dealt Lowry and Kevin Martin, they also let Scola and Dragic go), while retaining some core guys (Parsons), acquiring more (Lin, Asik) and giving your young guys some more chances (D-Mo, Beverley).
    3.) The Rockets rebuilding process started in 2009-10 (Yao's last season), a year in which they had a 73M payroll with extensions looming for Lowry and Scola. http://www.red94.net/houston-rockets...planation/556/. You can make moves to maneuver around flexibility, again you're placing limitations on what Ujiri can and can't do.
    Definitely agree with the bold - but again it is about remaining competitive as Houston did.

    1.) Yes. And I hope the Raptors do. Actually sidenote: I could see Casey fired, a coach like Nurse given the reigns for a year or two to see how he does with player development and his own growth in to a NBA head coach. If Nurse isn't up for the task, bring on a new coach for 2015-16 (which by the way I think MU/TL are working towards: an exciting, competitive, up-and-coming young team to kick off a new era for Toronto).

    2.) We can trade 2014 pick or 2015 pick - not both. If 2014 pick traded, both 2016 can be. If 2015 pick traded, only 1 2016 can be. It is not so much the core itself I don't like in Toronto. The issue is the money attached to the core. There is no value and no future flexibility.

    3.) The only limitations I'm placing on Ujiri is what he can and can't do retaining a core that consists of all 3 of DD/Lowry/Gay. Please don't lose sight of what my argument has been: the current core has a very low ceiling and if all three are kept they have few assets to trade and no financial flexibility. All the discussion about acquiring assets is great, I love it. If they can remain competitive while they do it, fine and dandy (I don't believe it but whatever take whatever comes). I believe you're looking at sections of my posts without context. The original post that started exchange said:

    While I'm firmly in the "trade for prospects and picks" camp, I don't think Masai can go that route without making it look like he tried to build with what he has first. Looking at the intense debate that has gone on with that topic here on the forums is a pretty good indication of how this topic strikes a nerve with some fans. By sticking with the first 20 games it can appear to the "Builders" that he tried and by leaving the last 62 games of the season he can still "Tank".
    I'm not claiming to have a direct line to Masai's mind. All I'm saying is he has to give this current core some time to see what they can do or else many fans (and there are a lot of them) who vehemently oppose anything other than contending for the playoffs this year are going to be ostracized. After those first 22 games, and especially versus the better teams, if the Raptors have not performed well it gives Masai the ammunition he needs to defend any drastic move such as trading Lowry, Gay, and/or DeRozan. At the very least, many of the fans who are all about competing and contending with the current core would be able to see it isn't going to happen and accept any attempts to take one step back to make many steps forward. I imagine there will still be some claiming, "But the schedule gets easier!" However when the stated goal by both MU and TL is championships, making the playoffs to get bounced in the first round doesn't sound all to likely (especially with no cap space, assuming they were all kept).


    A side note: I think this tanking/building debate is likely the most divisive topic among Raptor fans ever - after Bargnani of course.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  6. #66
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    I don't think the Morey style will work for the Raptors.. Houston has the advantage of being in a tax free state and has a warm climate with a history of championships. Plus looking at free agents in 2014/2015 its pretty weak. Lebron/Wade/Carmelo/Love are probably the biggest four. Love may be attainable but he's not going to leave Minnesota to come to another mediocre team, especially since LA will probably have the cap space to grab him (assuming they fail in grabbing Lebron or Carmelo).

    I also don't see a situation where a team will struggle to resign their prized RFA coming off a rookie salary like OKC and Harden. Cleveland could have that situation but I don't consider anyone on their roster outside of Irving as a superstar.

    If the team starts off poorly (below .500 at the 20 game mark), then MU might make a decision to blow it up. or he might just let them play it out. At 'worst' they will get a pick in the 8-13 range. MU/Weltman could still find an all-star with that pick without trading all their guys. I think he holds on to Gay/Lowry, resigns them to decent contracts, and then flips them next season. That seems like MU's style.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Because Morey had multiple 1st round picks and cap space at his disposal.

    The raptors would likely not be in that situation until 2015 and that assumes Lowry and Gay are not resigned. I don't think they are going to be looking to start a rebuild in all-star weekend year. It also leaves them with just one year of cap space before JVs extension kicks in.

    By retaining enough cap space for one max-level player after acquiring Harden, the Rockets successfully wooed Dwight Howard, which would have been much more difficult if Harden weren't already on the team. Furthermore, the Rockets acquired so many assets during their rebuilding process, such that they currently possess a solid supporting cast in place behind Harden and Howard, including Lin, Asik, Chandler Parsons, and more solid role players who should help the Rockets contend for the Finals this upcoming season.

    http://m.basketball.realgm.com/artic.../the-anti-tank

    The above article ignores the 2 summers of free agent strikeouts by Morey. It was not until they acquired star talent in harden did a big free agent sign.... And that was all about asset accumulation to get harden.

    The difference between toronto and Houston is:
    1) coaching: Adelman is one if the greatest and most underrated and Mchale is proving to be underrated as a coach as well.
    2) assets: toronto's only trade assets are the current core.
    3) financial flexibility: Houston had great cap management unlike raptors current roster
    Not to you specifically Matt52, just to this idea that Morey 'didn't tank', which I hear alot.

    Witin about 1 month after the 2011/12 season Morey:

    -traded Budinger for a first round pick
    -traded up into the lottery (Dalembert + pick)
    -traded Lowry for a lottery pick
    -traded Courtney Lee for a 2nd round pick
    -let Dragic walk
    -amnestied Scula

    (also traded Jordan Hill in March for a first round pick)

    Thats 7 of the 10 most 'used' (minutes) players for the 201/12 season.

    Morey gave up his team for picks and prospects, then managed to flip them just before the season started for Harden. He was clearly willing to accept losing if he didn't get his superstar player and use the draft. I'd like to point out he happened to have a market to do things Toronto couldn't.

    This entire idea that Morey didn't tank only exists because he was able to do, what is perhaps the quickest, team flips in NBA history. This flip also worked in part because he has a superstar market.

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  9. #68
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    By the way, while there is a difference of opinion, this is a great reply, in my opinion.



    Definitely possible. But might be tough to sign and trade in a year with some many teams have so much cap space. Teams have been preparing for years for the new CBA and punitive taxes many correctly anticipated. But definitely a possibility.
    I don't think other teams have as much flexibility as you're suggesting. Most teams are tied into 45-55M like Toronto for 2014-15 (although that figure could be much lower or higher for us depending on what happens with Gay). The only teams with more flexibility than that are Orlando, Phoenix, LAL, Charlotte and Dallas. And again, the Rockets were rocking 55-70M payrolls while Morey was wheeling and dealing to acquire picks and young prospects to use later as trade ammunition. It's not incredibly difficult if you have a shrewd GM.


    Maybe. However, Do you think a raw Ross, DD, a still raw JV, and Amir are going to compete for .500 or slightly above as Houston did? Even with Bosh the Raptors were unable to break .500 in his last year. You brought up the comparison to Houston, I just don't see it being possible if Lowry and Gay are gone - at which point any comparison to Houston, in my opinion, is moot because the Raptors aren't competing. But you are right that maybe they can compete. Look at Denver. Best player goes, and they get better. Unfortunately, again, so many teams have cap space this summer and neither Lowry or Gay are on the same talent level of Carmelo.
    That's not what I was talking about. You said:

    he Rockets acquired so many assets during their rebuilding process, such that they currently possess a solid supporting cast in place behind Harden and Howard,
    Those guys are perfectly capable of being a supporting cast. I didn't say they were a .500 team or even an ok team by themselves, they likely wouldn't be. Do you think Lin/KMart/Parsons/Dmo/Asik would've been a good team either? No, obviously not, but Houston retained and acquired some pieces to fit in around their stars when the time was right.


    I hope so. I really do. It is what I want them to do with Lowry, Gay, and DD. But again, comparing to Houston, I don't see those pieces going out with the Raptors getting a return that keeps them in playoff/.500 contention.
    I don't really care if the Raptors are in playoff contention or not, so long as Ujiri is making smart moves for the long-term.



    Definitely agree with the bold - but again it is about remaining competitive as Houston did.
    I actually don't think Houston would've been very good last year if they hadn't made the Harden trade. What I commend Morey for is keeping/signing enough solid pieces (Lin, Beverley, Parsons, Delfino, DMo, Asik, etc) to have a good supporting cast around Harden and keep the team competitive. That's why I'm an advocate of keeping our players unless you can flip them from a high value package. With DeRozan, Amir, Val and Ross in particular, I think the 4 of them could be an excellent supporting cast for a top player in the future whether that player is acquired via trade or the draft. We could even keep the entirety of our starting 5 if Lowry and Gay can be re-upped for deals comparable to what Calderon (7M per) and Iguodala (12M per) got, which would leave us enough flexibility financially in 2015 to pursue a max level player in free agency or via trade while providing that player with an excellent supporting cast.

    1.) Yes. And I hope the Raptors do. Actually sidenote: I could see Casey fired, a coach like Nurse given the reigns for a year or two to see how he does with player development and his own growth in to a NBA head coach. If Nurse isn't up for the task, bring on a new coach for 2015-16 (which by the way I think MU/TL are working towards: an exciting, competitive, up-and-coming young team to kick off a new era for Toronto).
    I agree, I don't think Casey has any sort of long-term future with this team. Ujiri probably just kept him around for continuity, and will make a more concrete coaching decision once he's built a team he likes. I'm sure he'll find a coach with skills, pedigree and the ability to mesh with our roster.

    2.) We can trade 2014 pick or 2015 pick - not both. If 2014 pick traded, both 2016 can be. If 2015 pick traded, only 1 2016 can be. It is not so much the core itself I don't like in Toronto. The issue is the money attached to the core. There is no value and no future flexibility.
    Ok that's what I thought in terms of the picks. There's nothing wrong with the money attached to the core really aside from Gay (who will likely get Iguodala type money in free agency, making his deal no longer an albatross) and Fields (who is gone in 2 years). Aside from those 2 nobody on this team is overpaid, and nobody on the team has a cap-crippling deal.

    3.) The only limitations I'm placing on Ujiri is what he can and can't do retaining a core that consists of all 3 of DD/Lowry/Gay. Please don't lose sight of what my argument has been: the current core has a very low ceiling and if all three are kept they have few assets to trade and no financial flexibility. All the discussion about acquiring assets is great, I love it. If they can remain competitive while they do it, fine and dandy (I don't believe it but whatever take whatever comes). I believe you're looking at sections of my posts without context. The original post that started exchange said:
    And I'll reiterate, that he actually COULD keep all three players depending on what they're re-signed for and keep a contender going forwards. I've done this math before, but if we did re-sign Lowry/Gay for Calderon/Iggy type deals, we have the following situation in 2015 barring any trades.

    Gay - 12M
    DD - 9.5M
    Lowry - 7M
    JV - 4M
    Ross - 3M
    Acy - 1M
    2014 1st - 1.5M
    2015 1st - 1.5M

    Total: 39.5M. With a projected salary cap of 62.1M by Larry Coon in 2015-16. That's 22M roughly available to spend, whether that's to trade, sign free agents or whatever, with 8 rotation players already on the roster. Even if the cap doesn't change, that's 20M.

    Assume Gay and Lowry were actually playing well enough to justify being resigned at all. Couple that with Jonas becoming a star type player (this is the argument you always use when talking about the tank, saying that we have a unique opportunity to pair him with a second elite talent) and the team actually having played well enough (slightly above .500) to be kept together, and we might actually be able to entice a top player to come here and be the man. It's not the most likely or even the best option, but it is a possibility.

    That's why I'm saying your placing restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do.

  10. #69
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I don't think other teams have as much flexibility as you're suggesting. Most teams are tied into 45-55M like Toronto for 2014-15 (although that figure could be much lower or higher for us depending on what happens with Gay). The only teams with more flexibility than that are Orlando, Phoenix, LAL, Charlotte and Dallas. And again, the Rockets were rocking 55-70M payrolls while Morey was wheeling and dealing to acquire picks and young prospects to use later as trade ammunition. It's not incredibly difficult if you have a shrewd GM.
    17 teams have $15M or more in cap space next season assuming a cap of $62M. I'm not going to dig through all 30 teams but that also does not include player options, team options being declined, or rookie contracts being declined.




    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    That's not what I was talking about. You said:
    That is not what "I" said. That was a quote. I was on my phone earlier. I just went back and fixed it to reflect it was a quote from the link given.



    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Those guys are perfectly capable of being a supporting cast. I didn't say they were a .500 team or even an ok team by themselves, they likely wouldn't be. Do you think Lin/KMart/Parsons/Dmo/Asik would've been a good team either? No, obviously not, but Houston retained and acquired some pieces to fit in around their stars when the time was right.
    Actually, I think that would have been another Houston team close to .500 and likely in the 9th or 10th seed in the West with 40 wins. Also that starting line up would have cost $8.4, $11, $885k, $1.5M, and $8.4M for a starting lineup of ~$28.2M. Raps current starting lineup is $6.2, $9.5, $17.3, $6.5, and $3.5 for ~$43M.

    As for retaining and acquiring pieces, who do you send away that is going to return valuable assets while making teh team remain competitive? That has been the Houston model.


    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I don't really care if the Raptors are in playoff contention or not, so long as Ujiri is making smart moves for the long-term.
    Agreed.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I actually don't think Houston would've been very good last year if they hadn't made the Harden trade. What I commend Morey for is keeping/signing enough solid pieces (Lin, Beverley, Parsons, Delfino, DMo, Asik, etc) to have a good supporting cast around Harden and keep the team competitive. That's why I'm an advocate of keeping our players unless you can flip them from a high value package. With DeRozan, Amir, Val and Ross in particular, I think the 4 of them could be an excellent supporting cast for a top player in the future whether that player is acquired via trade or the draft. We could even keep the entirety of our starting 5 if Lowry and Gay can be re-upped for deals comparable to what Calderon (7M per) and Iguodala (12M per) got, which would leave us enough flexibility financially in 2015 to pursue a max level player in free agency or via trade while providing that player with an excellent supporting cast.
    It doesn't matter what they would have been really because they WERE good because a trade was made. They had desirable assets (expiring contract, rookie deals, and multiple draft picks) to obtain a star talent from a team with a difficult decision to make.

    You do know this has been my stance for nearly a year?


    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    I agree, I don't think Casey has any sort of long-term future with this team. Ujiri probably just kept him around for continuity, and will make a more concrete coaching decision once he's built a team he likes. I'm sure he'll find a coach with skills, pedigree and the ability to mesh with our roster.
    .

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Ok that's what I thought in terms of the picks. There's nothing wrong with the money attached to the core really aside from Gay (who will likely get Iguodala type money in free agency, making his deal no longer an albatross) and Fields (who is gone in 2 years). Aside from those 2 nobody on this team is overpaid, and nobody on the team has a cap-crippling deal.
    2 years is a long time and $25M tied up to wait for Gay for Gay and Fields to get off the books.

    I disagree that he will get AI money and I firmly believe he will pick up his $19.3M option because he will be just 28/29 when the deal is up and he is not getting that type of money as a free agent in year 1. If he opts out, Toronto has to sign him starting at that amount (see question 59 in Larry Coon's FAQ).



    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    And I'll reiterate, that he actually COULD keep all three players depending on what they're re-signed for and keep a contender going forwards. I've done this math before, but if we did re-sign Lowry/Gay for Calderon/Iggy type deals, we have the following situation in 2015 barring any trades.

    Gay - 12M
    DD - 9.5M
    Lowry - 7M
    JV - 4M
    Ross - 3M
    Acy - 1M
    2014 1st - 1.5M
    2015 1st - 1.5M

    Total: 39.5M. With a projected salary cap of 62.1M by Larry Coon in 2015-16. That's 22M roughly available to spend, whether that's to trade, sign free agents or whatever, with 8 rotation players already on the roster. Even if the cap doesn't change, that's 20M.

    Assume Gay and Lowry were actually playing well enough to justify being resigned at all. Couple that with Jonas becoming a star type player (this is the argument you always use when talking about the tank, saying that we have a unique opportunity to pair him with a second elite talent) and the team actually having played well enough (slightly above .500) to be kept together, and we might actually be able to entice a top player to come here and be the man. It's not the most likely or even the best option, but it is a possibility.

    That's why I'm saying your placing restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do.
    I'd only want to keep Gay and Lowry if they finally lived up to their potential. If that happens in Lowry's situation you have to wonder if he reverts back to the butterball of his first 7 NBA seasons. With Gay, he is never going to sign for $12M per year.

    Of course there are restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do. First of all, as you know, there is a CBA. Then there is my own opinions tied in to the situation limiting Ujiri from my perspective where I don't think keeping the core as is is good enough to compete for championships long term; I don't think the financial flexibility will be there and $19M for both Lowry and Gay is unrealistic; I don't think keeping the core will permit the type of assets needed to entice other teams to be acquired; I don't think trading pieces of the core is good enough to compete for .500; and I don't think DeRozan and Gay are going to sustain the efficiency over 82 games as teams will scout, prepare, and adapt to whatever new game plan the Raptors develop on offense (assuming anything at all). Lots of restrictions there shaping my perspective.

    But yes, anything could happen.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    17 teams have $15M or more in cap space next season assuming a cap of $62M. I'm not going to dig through all 30 teams but that also does not include player options, team options being declined, or rookie contracts being declined.
    If I understand your last sentence correctly (if a player has a player option it doesn't count, if they have a team option it does, and all rookie deals count?) then the Raptors are one of those teams (or very close to it, something like 44-45M counted with a 58.7M cap, so 13-14M).





    That is not what "I" said. That was a quote. I was on my phone earlier. I just went back and fixed it to reflect it was a quote from the link given.
    I don't think that matters, at least now you know what I was referring to.

    Actually, I think that would have been another Houston team close to .500 and likely in the 9th or 10th seed in the West with 40 wins. Also that starting line up would have cost $8.4, $11, $885k, $1.5M, and $8.4M for a starting lineup of ~$28.2M. Raps current starting lineup is $6.2, $9.5, $17.3, $6.5, and $3.5 for ~$43M.
    Houston barely made the playoffs WITH Harden. To suggest that they would have about the same record (.500) with Kmart at 2 instead of arguably the 3rd best player in the NBA offensively is a stretch. I will agree that their starting 5 is cheaper, but I would say Lowry/DD/Gay/Amir/Valanciunas is definitively better in the short and long-term than Lin/KMart/Parsons/DMo/Asik. I hope there's some agreement there.

    A bit of an aside btw, but Houston isn't the only example of a team having their core in place (minus their star) before acquiring a star player. Chicago also comes to mind, although they got extremely lucky getting the #1 pick with a 1.7% chance.

    As for retaining and acquiring pieces, who do you send away that is going to return valuable assets while making teh team remain competitive? That has been the Houston model.
    You're misquoting me. What you quoted here was in reference to this post by me:

    So it wouldn't be possible at all for Toronto to retain some pieces going forward (maybe DD, Ross, Valanciunas, Amir) and also make some constructive moves to free up cap space while flipping assets like Lowry and Gay for value maybe?
    This discussion is getting kind of messy due to the number of times things have been quoted and re-quoted (if that's even a word).


    It doesn't matter what they would have been really because they WERE good because a trade was made. They had desirable assets (expiring contract, rookie deals, and multiple draft picks) to obtain a star talent from a team with a difficult decision to make.

    You do know this has been my stance for nearly a year?
    Actually it is about that. You said "remaining competitive".


    2 years is a long time and $25M tied up to wait for Gay for Gay and Fields to get off the books.

    I disagree that he will get AI money and I firmly believe he will pick up his $19.3M option because he will be just 28/29 when the deal is up and he is not getting that type of money as a free agent in year 1. If he opts out, Toronto has to sign him starting at that amount (see question 59 in Larry Coon's FAQ).
    Yes that's fine if he picks up the option, I was talking about the 2015 offseason. Our cap space would be calculated using Gay's 2015-16 salary which would be his new contract, not the 19M that he's owed in 2014-15. The fact that Gay is going to make that much that year, coupled with the amount that a similar caliber player in Iguodala got paid, to me, is reason enough to believe that Gay actually could accept a 12M per year extension.

    If Gay could agree to a deal somewhere in that neighbourhood that would be great. There are maybe 5 players in the league at his position with his skill set and he'd be an invaluable asset for us. That way you don't have to worry about going out and finding another top-tier SF in the draft or by trade/FA.

    I'd only want to keep Gay and Lowry if they finally lived up to their potential. If that happens in Lowry's situation you have to wonder if he reverts back to the butterball of his first 7 NBA seasons. With Gay, he is never going to sign for $12M per year.
    There's always risks when signing players for long-term money. And I would be careful saying that Gay will "never" sign for that amount.

    Of course there are restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do. First of all, as you know, there is a CBA. Then there is my own opinions tied in to the situation limiting Ujiri from my perspective where I don't think keeping the core as is is good enough to compete for championships long term; I don't think the financial flexibility will be there and $19M for both Lowry and Gay is unrealistic; I don't think keeping the core will permit the type of assets needed to entice other teams to be acquired; I don't think trading pieces of the core is good enough to compete for .500; and I don't think DeRozan and Gay are going to sustain the efficiency over 82 games as teams will scout, prepare, and adapt to whatever new game plan the Raptors develop on offense (assuming anything at all). Lots of restrictions there shaping my perspective.
    Yeah he's restricted by the CBA, I'm clearly aware of that and when I was talking about you placing restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do I obviously meant WITHIN the CBA.

    At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you think the core is good enough. If Ujiri thinks that the core is good enough to be a supporting moving forwards, that he can get them all re-signed for a price that he likes, and woo or make a deal for a star to come play with them; then he could keep the core going forwards. It's not set in stone like you continually seem to suggest it is.

    What efficiency are you talking about DeRozan and Gay sustaining? Preseason? Anyone who thinks they're going to sustain that level of efficiency is delusional. Aren't both of them shooting nearly 70% TS? If they were to sustain that over the course of the regular season while playing their same 36 minutes, they would both be averaging something like 25ppg on league-best efficiency. Last I checked they aren't LeBron and Durant so that won't happen.

    It is possible and even likely though that the two of them will play better individually and as a unit than last season though.
    Last edited by Xixak; Sun Oct 27th, 2013 at 11:25 AM.

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    A few notes that I think need to be made/re-emphasized at this point.

    1. The Houston model has worked so well because Daryl Morey got spectacularly lucky with the Harden trade and to a lesser extent with Parsons being an NBA starter picked up in the second round. Without Harden, the Rockets don't make playoffs last year; without Harden they most likely don't sign Dwight, and Dwight was Morey's goal all along so basically Morey's gameplan worked out because Oklahoma decided not to spend two million bucks extra per year on James Harden. Do not think of Houston as a role model unless you really like playing high-stakes craps.

    2. The 2014 free agency crop is a myth - everything big will happen in 2015. In 2014, LeBron and Wade stay in Miami, and Bosh probably does as well; Carmelo either keeps with New York via his existing contract or flirts with free agency to get the Knicks to give him a new one (I think the Lakers possibility is just something Melo will use to get Kobe-level dollars and five years out of James Dolan), Kobe and Dirk will definitely stay with LA and Dallas, and most of the exciting RFAs have already been locked down except for Greg Monroe and maybe Gordon Hayward.

    3. As for the 2015 free agency crop, it's interesting, but it's mostly bigs: Marc Gasol, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge, Carlos Boozer, Brandon Bass, Tyson Chandler, Omer Asik, Brook Lopez can exercise his player option, so can Al Jefferson and Roy Hibbert and Marreese Speights and Kevin Love and David West. We're honestly pretty solid on bigs right now: Jonas and Amir are already a decent tandem and they're probably going to become quietly elite over the next two years. Our problem is that we need an elite point guard (I am not on the Lowry train, sorry) and true wing depth, and 2015 is only sort of okay there: for PGs, Rondo's the only marquee-level point guard (and Rondo is tricky to assess) although Goran Dragic and Jeremy Lin maybe have potential. For wings, it's Danny Green, Gerald Henderson and - maybe - Klay Thompson, because I don't think Golden State will have the money to re-sign him.

    4. So if somebody wants to put forward free agency as a strategy, I think it's incipient upon them to give a list of names (bearing in mind we'll have to compete hard for them). My shortlist is Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, Paul Millsap, Gordon Hayward, Jeremy Lin, Goran Dragic, Klay Thompson and Danny Green. I think if we sign one big, one wing and one PG out of those guys over the next two years - or trade for them and extend them - and keep our core of Jonas, Amir and DeMar, that's the start of a pretty serious playoff team.
    Last edited by magoon; Sun Oct 27th, 2013 at 11:55 AM.

  13. #72
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    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    If I understand your last sentence correctly (if a player has a player option it doesn't count, if they have a team option it does, and all rookie deals count?) then the Raptors are one of those teams (or very close to it, something like 44-45M counted with a 58.7M cap, so 13-14M).

    Everything counts towards the cap until options start getting declined.

    The Raptors could actually have $31-32M on the books but it would mean the only players on the roster are DD, Fields, JV, Ross, and Novak... but $6M is allocated to Amir and Hansbrough due to guaranteed money.


    I don't think that matters, at least now you know what I was referring to.



    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Houston barely made the playoffs WITH Harden. To suggest that they would have about the same record (.500) with Kmart at 2 instead of arguably the 3rd best player in the NBA offensively is a stretch. I will agree that their starting 5 is cheaper, but I would say Lowry/DD/Gay/Amir/Valanciunas is definitively better in the short and long-term than Lin/KMart/Parsons/DMo/Asik. I hope there's some agreement there.
    Yeah. Not 9th or 10th. But certainly 11th. Difference between 10th and 11th was 8 wins (41 to 33).



    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    You're misquoting me. What you quoted here was in reference to this post by me:



    This discussion is getting kind of messy due to the number of times things have been quoted and re-quoted (if that's even a word).



    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Actually it is about that. You said "remaining competitive".
    They might not have remained competitive but they would not have been a doormat - likely mid 30 wins, I think.

    Regardless of how the season would have played out, they would have had enough cap space for 2 max free agents. Would Harden have gone? I don't know but they could have made the offer... again another situation Toronto will not have in keeping current core.


    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Yes that's fine if he picks up the option, I was talking about the 2015 offseason. Our cap space would be calculated using Gay's 2015-16 salary which would be his new contract, not the 19M that he's owed in 2014-15. The fact that Gay is going to make that much that year, coupled with the amount that a similar caliber player in Iguodala got paid, to me, is reason enough to believe that Gay actually could accept a 12M per year extension.

    There's always risks when signing players for long-term money. And I would be careful saying that Gay will "never" sign for that amount.
    Who knows? If Toronto is stuck after two years in a 7-8 seed situation with limited room to improve, I think he can get that type of money on a much better team.

    Quote Xixak wrote: View Post
    Yeah he's restricted by the CBA, I'm clearly aware of that and when I was talking about you placing restrictions on what Ujiri can and can't do I obviously meant WITHIN the CBA.

    At the end of the day it doesn't matter if you think the core is good enough. If Ujiri thinks that the core is good enough to be a supporting moving forwards, that he can get them all re-signed for a price that he likes, and woo or make a deal for a star to come play with them; then he could keep the core going forwards. It's not set in stone like you continually seem to suggest it is.

    What efficiency are you talking about DeRozan and Gay sustaining? Preseason? Anyone who thinks they're going to sustain that level of efficiency is delusional. Aren't both of them shooting nearly 70% TS? If they were to sustain that over the course of the regular season while playing their same 36 minutes, they would both be averaging something like 25ppg on league-best efficiency. Last I checked they aren't LeBron and Durant so that won't happen.

    It is possible and even likely though that the two of them will play better individually and as a unit than last season though.
    At the end of the day we come back to my original rebuttal: Actually I am sharing a hypothesis/opinion in the hopes of spurring constructive conversation.

    None of us know anything here. It is aimless banter at its finest.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Alright this no longer appears to be going anywhere, good talk though surprisingly.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I've glanced at the schedule a few times but nothing ever serious.

    Just taking a serious look and I think 22 games is the magic point in the schedule for the Raptors.

    While I'm firmly in the "trade for prospects and picks" camp, I don't think Masai can go that route without making it look like he tried to build with what he has first. Looking at the intense debate that has gone on with that topic here on the forums is a pretty good indication of how this topic strikes a nerve with some fans. By sticking with the first 20 games it can appear to the "Builders" that he tried and by leaving the last 62 games of the season he can still "Tank".

    Why the first 22 games? Here is their schedule:

    Wed 30 vs Boston
    Fri 1 @ Atlanta
    Sat 2 @ Milwaukee
    Tue 5 vs Miami
    Wed 6 @ Charlotte
    Fri 8 @ Indiana
    Sat 9 vs Utah
    Mon 11 @ Houston
    Wed 13 @ Memphis
    Fri 15 vs Chicago

    Sun 17 vs Portland
    Wed 20 @ Philadelphia
    Fri 22 vs Washington
    Tue 26 vs Brooklyn
    Fri 29 vs Miami

    Sun 1 vs Denver
    Tue 3 @ Golden State
    Fri 6 @ Phoenix
    Sun 8 @ L.A. Lakers

    Tue 10 vs San Antonio
    Fri 13 vs Philadelphia
    Sat 14 @ Chicago


    6 games versus the top 4 teams in the East:
    2 games versus Miami
    1 game versus Indiana
    2 games versus Chicago
    1 game Brooklyn

    2 mini-west coast swings

    5 games versus teams fighting for final playoff spots in the east:
    1 vs Boston
    1 vs Atlanta
    1 vs Milwaukee
    1 vs Charlotte
    1 vs Washington

    2 games versus bottom feeder Philly

    4 games versus the better teams in the west:
    1 game vs San Antonio
    1 game vs Golden State
    1 game vs Houston
    1 game vs Memphis

    Given the schedule of the first 22 games, I think Ujiri will have a good indication of what this team can do. In my opinion, if they are not killing in through 22 (I mean 14-8 or better) you've got your indication of what to do with this team. Again, there is no cap space or financial flexibility to work with; keeping the core of this team means it is capped out and you are 100% relying on Ross and JV as the only means of growth with a window of 3-4 years before looking for a new PG and SF.

    As an aside, it takes them up to December 15th when free agents can be traded.
    Suddenly the 76ers are no longer bottom feeders.... Uh oh!
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Suddenly the 76ers are no longer bottom feeders.... Uh oh!
    Well, lets not go crazy here. After all, Charlotte started last season well before bombing completely.

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Well, lets not go crazy here. After all, Charlotte started last season well before bombing completely.
    Don't worry, no more crazy than normal.

    HOwever they aren't going to be a pushover like many predicted.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
    Tim Leiweke

    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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