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Thread: MU says "wait and see" approach, how does the schedule play out?

  1. #21
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    I honestly surprised that .500 is good enough in your opinion.
    Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
    MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.

    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    To me .500 ball is just another season on the treadmill, with maybe a first round sweep to the Heat in the process.
    Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.
    "I just dunked. Got a little dunk. Thatís nice." Terrence Ross

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  3. #22
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    But I have a hard time with the first half. Is playing X more games in a season really going to impact Gay or Derozans or Lowry's or whoever's value? I think these guys have enough history that teams would be rather confident in knowing what they are getting whether thats today, a month from now or at the trade deadline.
    The value increase is coming from OTHER teams getting aware of the increased value of players so that the other teams can convince themselves to trade - and to offer more. Trades are easier to sell (and to profit from) if there's a buzz.
    Last edited by GoingBig; Tue Oct 22nd, 2013 at 04:23 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The NBA is a fraternity but at the end of the day it is a cut throat business.

    I'd be surprised if teams are openly talking about what they want to do.

    Craiger originally said, "....but I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing...."

    Might teams have an idea of what they are doing? Sure. Are they making assumptions? I think so. I'd be shocked if teams are sitting down with one another or texting back and forth saying, "This is what we're doing."

    Also of the teams i listed only OKC and UTA are disciples of SAS.
    Well of course they'd have to make assumptions, after all they wouldn't get to where they are by showing their hands completely. But their assumptions are likely to be pretty good, at least a heck of a lot better than what we can come up with. These guys all know each other and know how each think/do business.

    By talk, I didn't mean have frank open discussions like we do on the forums, but gauging player values, feeling out options, hearing the buzz of who's looking to deal and what they are asking for and what-not are all very normal for this type of industry.

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  7. #24
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    It's funny how everybody keeps asking or questioning MU on: what's the plan? what's the plan? MU's brief track record with Denver, and even this off-season seems to indicate that: (1) he's open to trading anybody, anytime & (2) he likes to pounce opportunistically on teams under pressure to make moves (i.e. desperation), (3) he is good at maximizing return assets for each transactions, (4) he is a good evaluator of talent, (5) he doesn't typically overpay his own players, (6) if he makes a mistake, he will fix it as quick as possible.

    I think the key point is #2 - opportunistically pouncing on the situations of other teams. There is no way MU can actually say what his strategy is going to be, simply because there is no way to know what situations will arise. Injuries, chemistry, media & fan expectations, and a host of factors will play into a team's situation, which cannot be predicted in advance.

    So I totally believe that the gameplan is: let-the-guys-play and "wait & see" how we do and what becomes available to improve the team.

  8. #25
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The NBA is a fraternity but at the end of the day it is a cut throat business.

    I'd be surprised if teams are openly talking about what they want to do.

    Craiger originally said, "....but I think most of the league has a good idea of what everyone else is doing...."

    Might teams have an idea of what they are doing? Sure. Are they making assumptions? I think so. I'd be shocked if teams are sitting down with one another or texting back and forth saying, "This is what we're doing."

    Also of the teams i listed only OKC and UTA are disciples of SAS.
    Sure they are making assumptions. But are they unreasonable ones? Does any team not think SAS and OKC are looking to win now? Aren't looking to move Durant and Duncan? Know their market size and what the likelyhood they'll be willing pay X dollars in salary? Where holes on those respective teams do or do not exist?

    Even if teams want to hide some things, but simply being observant will give things away.

    I don't think every GM has a checklist of 450 players and each teams wishlist for their players. But other GMs will have a pretty good idea of what are teams are need/want (3pt specialist, cap space, draft picks whatever) in part because they have a pretty good idea of where teams are headed or where they are at (rebuild, win now.. whatever)

    The NBA may be cut throat, but that doesn't make it clandestine.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
    MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.



    Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.
    I agree that MU is a realist (which is why I think making moves sooner rather than later is the most likely scenario), but I disagree that MU is willing to get into treadmill status, which is basically what .500 ball gives you.

    I'd rather a lottery pick than a sweep. Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets. If you know the team isn't going to contending status, and championships are the goal, why would you waste the opportunity? Once KL and Gay and re-signed, they become less appealing trade assets, and we miss out on a stacked draft. I'm not talking about all out Wiggins level bad, but somewhere in the 8-12 range in this draft still gets you a very good player (PG Andrew Harrison or SF Glenn Robinson to replace KL or Gay).

  10. #27
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote GoingBig wrote: View Post
    The value increase is coming from OTHER teams getting aware of the increased value of players so that the other teams can convince themselves to trade - and to offer more. Trades are easier to sell (and to profit from) if there's a buzz.
    6 of one or half a dozen of another.

    That is still assuming that more playing time will increase a players value with someone in the first place.

  11. #28
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
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    Here's my theory on this "wait and see" approach ---

    My belief is that we will blow it up either way. Not as in down to ground zero, but as in remove all players that Colangelo brought in. If I take over a job and the previous guy was a major f*ck-up, I pretty much feel that I'd have to get rid of everything that he did.

    But MU is no fool, he wasn't going to trade Rudy Gay for pennies on the dollar. His names been all over the media about how Memphis got better when they traded him. There's no way in hell I'm trading this guy while the perceived notion is that he is a terribly inefficient scorer with a franchise killing contract. Or trade Kyle Lowry after a pretty much disastrously inconsistent season.

    So when MU says "wait and see", it's really just his way of saying give me 20-30 games and if we're doing well, then I can get great value on these players. And even if we're doing poorly, I can probably still get better value than if I had blown it up in the offseason. Even if you're not an advanced stats type of guy, you have to agree that Rudy Gay's value has never been lower than it got during the offseason. Same for Kyle Lowry. One injury on a contending team and suddenly I'm their best friend. Either way I'm selling, but if I do it at the right time I can actually make my team better without starting from scratch.

    In the meantime he's surround these trade pieces with cheap and short contracts that can hold their own. It's a smart strategy and I'm looking forward to the fireworks (trades) this season.
    your pal,
    ebrian

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  13. #29
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    With 2 sets of back-to-back games, the Raps face Miami-@Charlotte, and then @Indiana-home vs Utah, the Raps could lose winnable games (@ Charlotte and home vs Utah) if they are fatigued from their games the night before against Top Tier teams. If the Raps were to somehow keep it close into the 4th Q against Miami or the Pacers, we might waste a lot of energy that could cost us in the 2nd, more winnable, game. Raps went 7-7 in back-to-backs last season (including the Bargs game-winning missed foul call vs Charlotte). So assuming we'd win one and lose one is fairly reasonable.
    It doesn't look like you factored when other teams are playing back-to-backs and we benefit from it, did you? For example, that @Charlotte game, they play @New York the night before. So both teams are going to be equally fatigued. Same with that Utah game, they play in Chicago the night before.

    Games where both teams are playing the second of back-to-backs:
    Nov 6, @Charlotte (0 days rest, both teams travel)
    Dec 14, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 8, vs Detroit (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Nov 2, @ Milwaukee (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 28, vs New York (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Nov 9, vs Utah (0 DR for them, 0D DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 1, vs Indiana (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)

    Games where we're on the second of back-to-backs, the other team is rested:
    Dec 23, @ San Antonio (1 DR for them, 0 DR for us, only TOR travels)

    Games where we're rested, and the other team is playing the second of a back-to-back:
    Dec 18, vs Charlotte (0 DR for them, 3 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 31, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 2 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 22, @ OKC (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 5, @ Miami (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)

  14. #30
    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote octothorp wrote: View Post
    It doesn't look like you factored when other teams are playing back-to-backs and we benefit from it, did you? For example, that @Charlotte game, they play @New York the night before. So both teams are going to be equally fatigued. Same with that Utah game, they play in Chicago the night before.

    Games where both teams are playing the second of back-to-backs:
    Nov 6, @Charlotte (0 days rest, both teams travel)
    Dec 14, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 8, vs Detroit (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Nov 2, @ Milwaukee (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 28, vs New York (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Nov 9, vs Utah (0 DR for them, 0D DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 1, vs Indiana (0 DR for them, 0 DR for us, both teams travel)

    Games where we're on the second of back-to-backs, the other team is rested:
    Dec 23, @ San Antonio (1 DR for them, 0 DR for us, only TOR travels)

    Games where we're rested, and the other team is playing the second of a back-to-back:
    Dec 18, vs Charlotte (0 DR for them, 3 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 31, @ Chicago (0 DR for them, 2 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Dec 22, @ OKC (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
    Jan 5, @ Miami (0 DR for them, 1 DR for us, both teams travel)
    I considered doing the extra research but decided against it because on the whole, these type of things should balance out over the course of a season. Since the Raps were 7-7 in back-to-backs last year, regardless of the other teams travel schedule, it's fairly safe to assume we'll be about 50% again this year. Hence the win one, lose one scenario I predicted.

    Valid point though.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Well if you think MU is expecting anything higher than .500, then you must think he's got some pretty rosey coloured glasses on.
    MU is a realist; he knows he doesn't have world beaters on his hands. But he also knows he doesn't have the Washington Generals. Somewhere in between is where we sit. I expect if that proves accurate, than MU will push ahead, not fall behind.



    Which, at this stage in the development, is exactly what this team needs in my opinion.
    If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

    Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
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  17. #32
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    Yeah, I'm actually surprised how even it works out. I've done this sort of analysis for NHL schedules before and found wild discrepancies in how teams benefit from back-to-backs. Here, the only times we get the benefit of being rested against a fatigued team (other then the Dec 18 Charlotte game) are against strong teams. I wonder if the NBA intentionally matches strong, fatigued teams against weak, rested teams in order to make games more competitive?

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

    Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?
    not to add fuel to the depressing fire.... but that would also need to be done while being cognisant of Val's first real pay day to.

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  20. #34
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    not to add fuel to the depressing fire.... but that would also need to be done while being cognisant of Val's first real pay day to.
    Exactly. When Amir and Fields come off the books, JV is due an extension soon after. I can see Fields moving on but what about Amir?
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Exactly. When Amir and Fields come off the books, JV is due an extension soon after. I can see Fields moving on but what about Amir?
    Another glorious day in the Raps future.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    If they had $15M in cap space coming up, I'd be in 100% agreement.

    Problem is this team appears to be capped out if they keep the current core (Lowry, DD, Gay, Amir, JV, Fields). How do they improve without cap space and financial flexibility? How do they take it to the next level? If a fringe/7th-8th seed is what their ceiling is, how long do you wait to start a rebuild? Do you trade your assets while you can or do you risk them leaving you with nothing (applies to Lowry and Gay)? Has DD shown enough growth that one could actually consider him a difference maker and he could thrive without Gay's presence?
    Touche. This is a great point Matt.
    I'll concede that the financials didn't really play into my line of thinking.

    However, I think if this team proves to be a 7th/8th seed as-is, Rudy and Lowry won't be going anywhere; which now gives us another kick and the proverbial can, to test Rudy's new-found fantastic Trade Value, after leading a team into the playoffs, and being on a massive expiring deal.

    Once again, and I believe you agree with me on this, winning will/should solve everything with this team.
    Just a matter of finding out if we can win. If we prove capable of winning as many games as we lose, that's a step in the right direction. One that getting into the 2013 draft won't necessarily guarantee for several more years.
    "I just dunked. Got a little dunk. Thatís nice." Terrence Ross

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    I agree that MU is a realist (which is why I think making moves sooner rather than later is the most likely scenario), but I disagree that MU is willing to get into treadmill status, which is basically what .500 ball gives you.

    I'd rather a lottery pick than a sweep. Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets. If you know the team isn't going to contending status, and championships are the goal, why would you waste the opportunity? Once KL and Gay and re-signed, they become less appealing trade assets, and we miss out on a stacked draft. I'm not talking about all out Wiggins level bad, but somewhere in the 8-12 range in this draft still gets you a very good player (PG Andrew Harrison or SF Glenn Robinson to replace KL or Gay).
    When did not making the playoffs become better than being the 7th or 8th seed?
    I don't understand it!.. I mean I DO understand it, I just don't agree with it.
    If you have an opportunity to make the playoffs, you do it. Period.

    "Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets".. what a truely odd thing to say.
    Last edited by Joey; Tue Oct 22nd, 2013 at 12:58 PM.
    "I just dunked. Got a little dunk. Thatís nice." Terrence Ross

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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Well we've both specified different time lines for reaching .500.
    I said, based on admitedly optimistic projections, I'd expect this team to be at 14-14 by Christmas; you're saying 12-18 by Christmas, but 20-21 by Jan 22nd.

    If either, or both, plays out, I expect MU to stand firm and ride this team out.
    Or at the most make minor adjustments for a short lived Playoff run.
    A 12-18 start likely will lead to dumping assests. That is why getting out of the gate fast is critical otherwise key assests likely will be moved. We CANNOT start 4-19 again.

  25. #39
    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    When did not making the playoffs become better than being the 7th or 8th seed?
    I don't understand it!.. I mean I DO understand it, I just don't agree with it.
    If you have an opportunity to make the playoffs, you do it. Period.

    "Playoff appearances are nice, but they are just a stat used to sell tickets".. what a truely odd thing to say.
    Playoff appearances are not the same thing as playoff wins, big distinction. Making it do the dance and getting swept isn't really a great accomplishment, unless you are an up and coming team on the rise. I don't see that much potential growth from this roster outside of JV and Ross. DD, KL, Gay, they are like the Bears, in that they are what we thought they were. We need growth potential more than we need a playoff appearance so that we can say we haven't been in the lottery 7 consecutive seasons and counting.

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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Touche. This is a great point Matt.
    I'll concede that the financials didn't really play into my line of thinking.

    However, I think if this team proves to be a 7th/8th seed as-is, Rudy and Lowry won't be going anywhere; which now gives us another kick and the proverbial can, to test Rudy's new-found fantastic Trade Value, after leading a team into the playoffs, and being on a massive expiring deal.

    Once again, and I believe you agree with me on this, winning will/should solve everything with this team.
    Just a matter of finding out if we can win. If we prove capable of winning as many games as we lose, that's a step in the right direction. One that getting into the 2013 draft won't necessarily guarantee for several more years.
    And what happens if he takes that new found desirability straight to LA or Dallas, as examples?

    But signing him to an extension and then trading him is something I had not thought of and would be straight out of the MU playbook with Nene.

    Winning AND $$$$ solves everything. If the Raptors can build a solid young core with financial flexibility/cap space and desirable young assets then they can attract the big free agent or trade to put them over the top.

    If Raps make 7/8th seed, outside of resigning and trading Gay, I still don't see how they can improve.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
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