Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

A new take on tanking - opponents of this need not click this thread

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    I'm kind of on the fence about this one for the simple fact that I really don't expect there to be a huge gap in the realistic maximum and minimum returns you can get for trading Lowry, Gay and DD.

    First off, with Rudy Gay you're looking at a very narrow list of trading partners due to the dollar amount of the contract. Ideally if you're rebuilding/tanking/stockpiling assets/whatever-you-want-to-call-it then you'd get back a first round pick or a talented young player (maybe more than one if you're lucky) and a bunch of salary ballast. The question is how much talent is a team willing to give up in order to acquire Gay. Given Gay's massive salary and potential for either walking or re-upping at an enormous cost, it's much more likely that the realistic haul is going to be expiring contracts and middling talent. There simply aren't enough huge millstone contracts out there to trade for and teams are going to be valuing their first round picks too highly to expect much of a return for him. In other words, I can't see this being a Baron Davis for a first round pick type of deal. So the difference between trading him for contracts and assets vs just expirings may come down to a late first round pick and a flawed-but-talented type player. In other words, not a huge gap.

    As for Lowry, the way to maximize his value would be to trade him near the deadline to a playoff team that's lost it's starting PG for an extended period of time. The catch is that those types of teams don't tend to have a lot of high draft picks or exciting young assets to throw back. You might get yourself another future starter back, but the odds of getting a future star for a rental player are slim. So much like for Gay, the difference between dumping him and maximizing his value probably isn't all that great.

    DeRozan represents the best chance at getting something solid of value in return because of his contract situation, but he's still a very flawed player whose value isn't great enough to get you back a lottery pick or a potential future star unless that star just happens to be buried behind another star and DD fits a position of need for the trading partner.

    Add that up and really is there going to be much of a difference between Ujiri waiting to maximize each player's potential value and just dumping them for the first good deal that comes along and allows them to bottom out this year? Will the assets he gets by waiting compensate for a drop from pick #7 to pick #11 for example, and missing out on a future all-star (and yes I realize that lottery is random, etc etc, this is all just speculation)?

    All that being said, I think waiting is probably the way to go, because those extra assets allow you to deal down the road and because although teams may not be willing to give up picks this year, future picks may prove just as valuable (especially if a couple of players choose to stay in college for another year and make 2015 a strong class as a result). A lot of young guys just need playing time and the right environment to succeed, so you never know which random throw-in could end up being a useful player/trade component if given a legit shot at developing.

    Comment


    • #17
      akashsingh wrote: View Post
      no reading comprehension I see.
      Who the *&#@ do you think you are? Step aside little one and let someone my own size take me on.

      Matt52 wrote: View Post
      p00ka feel free to not contribute. You've made your stance clear. The topic may hold no appeal to you whatsoever. That is cool.

      However, among the people who support tanking, I'm am interested how badly they would want to do it. Therefore I would ask a little bit of courtesy to talk among posters who favour this approach to team building.

      Also there is a benefit of trading everyone away for peanuts: it ensures the Raptors own pick is likely to be dreadful. If you are getting established rookie contract players like Monroe, or intriguing prospects like Giannis 'Po, or solid players who have never had a chance to shine like Tobias Harris, maybe your team does better than one would have thought.
      "Courtesy" as in telling people to stay out of your thread? Perhaps you misunderstand the media we're swimming in. If you create your own site, you're free to do whatever you want with people who disagree with you, but this is a public site as far as I know, and I said nothing that justifies banning from your little sandbox.

      As far as " I'm am interested how badly they would want to do it.", wtf ya talking about? Y'all been talking about that all summer, dude. Everybody here has stated their case, including in the very light you now create this umpteenth tank thread as a "new take". What the hell is new about it? That you tell people to stay away from your sandbox? That's about it.

      GO RAPS!!!
      Cheers,,, Enjoy the season

      PS. I didn't come in with an anti-tanking stance, as per your request. I came in questioning the laughable second choice. You know, the one that every tanker here, with an iota of grey matter, has already gone out of their way to disclaim. I can help you locate the 101 threads with all the info you're interested in, if you like.
      Last edited by p00ka; Tue Oct 22, 2013, 11:13 PM.

      Comment


      • #18
        Given the results so far (9-1 against outright blatant tanking), I think this provides an interesting perspective of the 'pro tank' side.

        As many on that side have said, myself included, I prefer a 're-tooling' to an outright tank job. I've always been much more in favor of the 'Melo trade style re-tooling (several good young assets & draft picks & some cap space), as opposed to full tank (ie: expiring contracts and draft picks). I understand the importance of building through the draft, but good young players (especially if still on rookie contracts) is basically the same approach, just spread across recent and present drafts.

        I'm a 'pro tanker' who has never been supportive of dumping players that we have... but cashing them in while their value is high, well that's just efficient asset management in my books.

        Comment


        • #19
          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
          Given the results so far (9-1 against outright blatant tanking), I think this provides an interesting perspective of the 'pro tank' side.

          As many on that side have said, myself included, I prefer a 're-tooling' to an outright tank job. I've always been much more in favor of the 'Melo trade style re-tooling (several good young assets & draft picks & some cap space), as opposed to full tank (ie: expiring contracts and draft picks). I understand the importance of building through the draft, but good young players (especially if still on rookie contracts) is basically the same approach, just spread across recent and present drafts.

          I'm a 'pro tanker' who has never been supportive of dumping players that we have... but cashing them in while their value is high, well that's just efficient asset management in my books.
          And of course he ignores it.

          Damn man, no love for a fellow Calgarian? Really man?

          Comment


          • #20
            Xixak wrote: View Post
            And of course he ignores it.

            Damn man, no love for a fellow Calgarian? Really man?
            Did I miss something?

            Comment


            • #21
              Every thread has little arguments going on.. this is ridiculous.
              "Masai WILL win us a championship"
              - Tim Leiweke

              Ujiri: "One thing I can say for sure is that we will not be stuck in the middle."

              Reporter: "How can you say that?"

              Ujiri: "Because I can say that."

              Comment


              • #22
                CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                Given the results so far (9-1 against outright blatant tanking), I think this provides an interesting perspective of the 'pro tank' side.

                As many on that side have said, myself included, I prefer a 're-tooling' to an outright tank job. I've always been much more in favor of the 'Melo trade style re-tooling (several good young assets & draft picks & some cap space), as opposed to full tank (ie: expiring contracts and draft picks). I understand the importance of building through the draft, but good young players (especially if still on rookie contracts) is basically the same approach, just spread across recent and present drafts.

                I'm a 'pro tanker' who has never been supportive of dumping players that we have... but cashing them in while their value is high, well that's just efficient asset management in my books.
                I voted "against" but I'd cash them in while their value is low, which I think it is right now. I just expect more than a Dumars type offer.

                But in the big picture, the Raptors own pick is also an asset. If that pick was top 5, it would be one of the Raptors' best assets, rivaled only by Jonas. So in the end, even the most extreme pro-tanking position advocates efficient asset management, the disagreement is only what is efficient.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Xixak wrote: View Post
                  http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post237943

                  CalgaryRapsFan, I hope you're going to tell Matt to "tone it down" as well for telling people to get out of the thread if they disagree:



                  Or does that only apply to me?
                  Wow, you really do have an axe to grind today, don't you?

                  First of all, his comment was clearly made tongue-in-cheek.

                  Second of all, he acknowledged the numerous legitimate arguments that have been made in multiple threads by the anti-tank posters. That is the epitome of respecting their opinions.

                  Third, he used the OP to be clear that he wasn't discounting the arguments against tanking, but preferred this thread to be an opportunity for pro-tankers to explain their rationale for and degree of support for the vague term 'tanking'.

                  Fourth, he wasn't using a new argument to support one side over another. He didn't present new evidence to push a pro-tanking agenda, but was instead trying to avoid yet another thread becoming a debate between the pro and anti tankers.

                  Fifth, it's not your job or your place to question the approach taken by admins/mods while trying to keep threads on-topic and respectful. Different tactics are required in different circumstances, which have nothing to do with who creates the thread or posts in it. If you have an issues with the way the admins/mods are acting, please feel free to send a PM to any/all of the admins/mods to voice your displeasure and register your complaint; there's no reason for a public display like this.


                  ***

                  I apologize for taking this thread off-topic. We now return to your regularly scheduled program.
                  Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Wed Oct 23, 2013, 12:36 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Wow, so I'm the only one here that would prefer the dump them all option huh? I'm a little surprised.

                    You guys really feel that if the team is around the 10th or 11th seed at the deadline but Ujiri can't find any deals that bring back solid assets he should still stay the course? Really? Then what, go into next season with the same core and do the same dance all over again, hoping this time to squeak into the playoffs? What's the end-game there?

                    I just don't get the logic I guess.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                      Wow, so I'm the only one here that would prefer the dump them all option huh? I'm a little surprised.

                      You guys really feel that if the team is around the 10th or 11th seed at the deadline but Ujiri can't find any deals that bring back solid assets he should still stay the course? Really? Then what, go into next season with the same core and do the same dance all over again, hoping this time to squeak into the playoffs? What's the end-game there?

                      I just don't get the logic I guess.
                      To be fair, the poll question was A, dump them at all costs, the faster the better, B, valuable assets. What you describe (trying to get assets until last moment and then dumping them for the best available offer) could be option C. I think it would be situational. It might be hard to get into high lottery at that point. If they dump, they should dump now, imo. But I prefer if they try to get some assets because I expect/hope that one of the mediocre playoff contenders will offer a pick or a few soon enough. It's a gamble and it could backfire.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        B. Only trade them if you get VALUABLE assets in return. And i mean, VALUABLE.

                        Tanking is for losers. And just like Masai said a couple of days ago: "You dont teach winning by losing"
                        Mamba Mentality

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Lark Benson wrote: View Post
                          Wow, so I'm the only one here that would prefer the dump them all option huh? I'm a little surprised.

                          You guys really feel that if the team is around the 10th or 11th seed at the deadline but Ujiri can't find any deals that bring back solid assets he should still stay the course? Really? Then what, go into next season with the same core and do the same dance all over again, hoping this time to squeak into the playoffs? What's the end-game there?

                          I just don't get the logic I guess.
                          I would think the Raptors would have the option to let Lowry walk in free agency.

                          Gay might opt in (a poor year is hardly likely to help his free agent value) and at that point the Raptors would likely have a little more leverage trading him because the receiving team would know he is there for at least one full season.... although $19.3M - eek.

                          DD would still have 3 more years on his contract and should be movable (assuming he doesn't have a piss poor year).

                          Casey would undoubtedly not be retained.

                          Essentially draft night and the summer might see MU walking around with some TNT.

                          ...... or not, I'm really just thinking out loud here.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I am pro tanker and I don't really see this thread as very useful as initially constructed. I would say that the results in the poll (currently 18-1) reflect that.

                            I mean nobody's going to say, "Don't get value" if that's possible.

                            As Lark's post alluded to, there are specific situations that could be constructed to gauge tankingness. For instance, in the situation that we are approaching the deadline and are less than a game and a half either in of or out of the playoffs. What would you want Ujiri to do? Take the best offer available regardless of how much value you get, or role with the roster until the end of the season and hope that you get better offers in the off-season.

                            My answer for the above hypothetical situation is that I'm happy not to form an opinion. It's really nice not thinking about what a GM should do because you believe that the GM who is actually going to make that decision is competent.

                            This may not last forever, but right now I feel that whatever decision(s) Ujiri makes will be better than the decisions I would make.

                            However, my general philosophy on basketball is that value is the most important thing. Having the best player in the world, playing at a discounted rate is the best way to win a championship (cough).


                            I want value for production at spots 1 through 15. The idea is that by cultivating value you are simultaneously cultivating flexibility, as well as some other positive externalities. So I would hold them, until something better comes along.
                            "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                            "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                            "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              ezz_bee wrote: View Post
                              I am pro tanker and I don't really see this thread as very useful as initially constructed. I would say that the results in the poll (currently 18-1) reflect that.

                              I mean nobody's going to say, "Don't get value" if that's possible.

                              As Lark's post alluded to, there are specific situations that could be constructed to gauge tankingness. For instance, in the situation that we are approaching the deadline and are less than a game and a half either in of or out of the playoffs. What would you want Ujiri to do? Take the best offer available regardless of how much value you get, or role with the roster until the end of the season and hope that you get better offers in the off-season.

                              My answer for the above hypothetical situation is that I'm happy not to form an opinion. It's really nice not thinking about what a GM should do because you believe that the GM who is actually going to make that decision is competent.

                              This may not last forever, but right now I feel that whatever decision(s) Ujiri makes will be better than the decisions I would make.

                              However, my general philosophy on basketball is that value is the most important thing. Having the best player in the world, playing at a discounted rate is the best way to win a championship (cough).


                              I want value for production at spots 1 through 15. The idea is that by cultivating value you are simultaneously cultivating flexibility, as well as some other positive externalities. So I would hold them, until something better comes along.
                              I would say it is quite useful.... but to each his or her own.

                              How many threads get side tracked by tanking vs. staying the course? How many of those pro-staying the course continually reference trading guys for nothing? It is pretty clear of those advocating tanking very few are advocating Gay for CV/Stuckey type deals.

                              As for the specific situations, absolutely. If somebody wishes to go through and start a poll with each individual scenario, please do! I'm sure it would spark some good discussion.... which was the attempt here. Clearly in some eyes it was a fail... and yet the posts keep coming in. Funny that is.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                The main problem with this strategy is that I'm not convinced trading DD and Gay will result in losses, because historically, they are not terribly productive players. If you want losses, you need to get the win producers off of the court, so that means players like Amir, JV, Lowry and Fields need to be traded. Trading DD and/or Gay could easily improve the team. The proper way to tank would be to trade productive players for unproductive players on short contracts and boatloads of picks.

                                Our best chance at tanking was lost with the Bargnani trade. Bargnani is the player you need if you are tanking. Bargnani's the tanking president.

                                I know that you don't want anti-tanking arguments in this thread, and I'm not saying that tanking is a bad strategy in general. However, the strategy works best for a once-good team, that has aging productive players to trade for young players, bad players on bad, but short, contracts and picks galore.

                                Our most productive players are young, under rated players, Amir, JV, Fields and Lowry. We've got interesting prospects in Ross, Acy and Stone. We've added another productive your player in Psycho T. All of these assets add Ws and cost us ping pong balls.

                                We would simply have to take too many steps backwards to really tank.

                                If tanking means trading JV, Fields, Amir and Lowry (and anybody else that helps us win games) instead of (or in addition to) DD and Gay, are you still on board for it?

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X