A new take on tanking - opponents of this need not click this thread

[mcHAPPY]

The main problem with this strategy is that I'm not convinced trading DD and Gay will result in losses, because historically, they are not terribly productive players. If you want losses, you need to get the win producers off of the court, so that means players like Amir, JV, Lowry and Fields need to be traded. Trading DD and/or Gay could easily improve the team. The proper way to tank would be to trade productive players for unproductive players on short contracts and boatloads of picks.

Our best chance at tanking was lost with the Bargnani trade. Bargnani is the player you need if you are tanking. Bargnani's the tanking president.

I know that you don't want anti-tanking arguments in this thread, and I'm not saying that tanking is a bad strategy in general. However, the strategy works best for a once-good team, that has aging productive players to trade for young players, bad players on bad, but short, contracts and picks galore.

Our most productive players are young, under rated players, Amir, JV, Fields and Lowry. We've got interesting prospects in Ross, Acy and Stone. We've added another productive your player in Psycho T. All of these assets add Ws and cost us ping pong balls.

We would simply have to take too many steps backwards to really tank.

If tanking means trading JV, Fields, Amir and Lowry (and anybody else that helps us win games) instead of (or in addition to) DD and Gay, are you still on board for it?

Good points... really good points - especially on Bargnani. But getting a first round pick and shedding his salary was incredible so I can live with that.

The only thing I would factor in is the win producers are middle of the road talent. Amir has been on the team for years and has hardly racked up the wins. The teams with the absolute worst records rarely win the lottery as it is - or sometimes even get in the top 3. If they can get in to the top 6 in this draft, I think they can get someone special.

Regarding bold, everyone except JV. I think he is still raw enough that he is not going to make a huge difference on his own. JV is also the reason to build tank in the first place.

[Craiger]

The main problem with this strategy is that I'm not convinced trading DD and Gay will result in losses, because historically, they are not terribly productive players. If you want losses, you need to get the win producers off of the court, so that means players like Amir, JV, Lowry and Fields need to be traded. Trading DD and/or Gay could easily improve the team. The proper way to tank would be to trade productive players for unproductive players on short contracts and boatloads of picks.

Our best chance at tanking was lost with the Bargnani trade. Bargnani is the player you need if you are tanking. Bargnani's the tanking president.

I know that you don't want anti-tanking arguments in this thread, and I'm not saying that tanking is a bad strategy in general. However, the strategy works best for a once-good team, that has aging productive players to trade for young players, bad players on bad, but short, contracts and picks galore.

Our most productive players are young, under rated players, Amir, JV, Fields and Lowry. We've got interesting prospects in Ross, Acy and Stone. We've added another productive your player in Psycho T. All of these assets add Ws and cost us ping pong balls.

We would simply have to take too many steps backwards to really tank.

If tanking means trading JV, Fields, Amir and Lowry (and anybody else that helps us win games) instead of (or in addition to) DD and Gay, are you still on board for it?

I'm not sure thats the entire story. What they are is not productive compared to their $ value, and therefore not productive compared to their opportunity cost.

When I broke down players points per possession adjusted for usage in the summer, Demar came out as one of the more productive players on the team (mind you it was slightly above average to the league). Gay on the other hand did still come out quite weak offensively, although he comes out as rather productive defensively by most metrics.

Now someone like Amir will likely cost the team more wins than DD or Gay, but as long as DD or Gay are replaced by unproductive players (or likely to be unproductive in the short term - ie. rookies/youth) the team will be adding losses.

On top of that it offers additional benifits such as cap space (theoretically anyways, depending on the trade or type of trade ofcourse) and experience (Val, Ross, Acy can see more minutes/touches).

When its all said and done I do expect that if this team wanted to be as bad as reasonably possible (ie. Jonas stays regardless), assuming they aren't willing to 'David Robinson' Amir, almost the entire starting line up needs to be replaced

However tanking (atleast to this pro-tanker) isn't just about being the worst team possible anyways. Its about asset accumulation, and that includes future assets.

[mcHAPPY]

I'm not sure thats the entire story. What they are is not productive compared to their $ value, and therefore not productive compared to their opportunity cost.

When I broke down players points per possession adjusted for usage in the summer, Demar came out as one of the more productive players on the team (mind you it was slightly above average to the league). Gay on the other hand did still come out quite weak offensively, although he comes out as rather productive defensively by most metrics.

Now someone like Amir will likely cost the team more wins than DD or Gay, but as long as DD or Gay are replaced by unproductive players (or likely to be unproductive in the short term - ie. rookies/youth) the team will be adding losses.

On top of that it offers additional benifits such as cap space (theoretically anyways, depending on the trade or type of trade ofcourse) and experience (Val, Ross, Acy can see more minutes/touches).

When its all said and done I do expect that if this team wanted to be as bad as reasonably possible (ie. Jonas stays regardless), assuming they aren't willing to 'David Robinson' Amir, almost the entire starting line up needs to be replaced

However tanking (atleast to this pro-tanker) isn't just about being the worst team possible anyways. Its about asset accumulation, and that includes future assets.

money shot

[Lark Benson]

I would think the Raptors would have the option to let Lowry walk in free agency.

Gay might opt in (a poor year is hardly likely to help his free agent value) and at that point the Raptors would likely have a little more leverage trading him because the receiving team would know he is there for at least one full season.... although $19.3M - eek.

DD would still have 3 more years on his contract and should be movable (assuming he doesn't have a piss poor year).

Casey would undoubtedly not be retained.

Essentially draft night and the summer might see MU walking around with some TNT.

...... or not, I'm really just thinking out loud here.

This is what I mean by not understanding why you'd just delay the inevitable another year.

If Lowry can (and probably will) walk in free agency, why not get ANY asset you can in return while you still can?

As for Gay, I think people are going to be very disappointed by the return if and when he's actually traded. But does that mean you just wait to see if he opts in and hope you can get something better next year? I certainly wouldn't, especially if your goal is not only to bottom out in terms of wins but to shift his shots to JV/Ross/whatever young players are left in the name of development.

And yes DD would retain his value, but again, his shots should be going to Ross unless you just want to move him to the 3 where he loses the single most effective weapon he's got: his post-up game.

I just don't see the point of treading water for another year and just wasting development time. I'd rather get anything I can now and wipe the slate clean than hold out for what would probably not end up being any assets of greater significance down the line. But that's all speculation as to the actual vs perceived value of the Raps' trade chips on my part - maybe Ujiri will surprise me. I certainly hope he will.

[Axel]

I have been a supporter of blowing it up for a while now, but I worry that our best chance to make moves was prior to or at the draft. Not sure what the market is right now. The teams that had cap space have used it, so the deals become harder to navigate to match the salaries.

To me, trading Gay for the Cavs #1 pick was the quickest, easiest way to the ball rolling. Now that that train has sailed, I'm not sure what we could get in return.

[mcHAPPY]

This is what I mean by not understanding why you'd just delay the inevitable another year.

If Lowry can (and probably will) walk in free agency, why not get ANY asset you can in return while you still can?

As for Gay, I think people are going to be very disappointed by the return if and when he's actually traded. But does that mean you just wait to see if he opts in and hope you can get something better next year? I certainly wouldn't, especially if your goal is not only to bottom out in terms of wins but to shift his shots to JV/Ross/whatever young players are left in the name of development.

And yes DD would retain his value, but again, his shots should be going to Ross unless you just want to move him to the 3 where he loses the single most effective weapon he's got: his post-up game.

I just don't see the point of treading water for another year and just wasting development time. I'd rather get anything I can now and wipe the slate clean than hold out for what would probably not end up being any assets of greater significance down the line. But that's all speculation as to the actual vs perceived value of the Raps' trade chips on my part - maybe Ujiri will surprise me. I certainly hope he will.

Yeah you raise a lot of good points especially if the Raptors are not taking any salary in to next season.

If we reach the trade deadline, there is nothing of value to be obtained via trade, and the Raps are sitting outside the playoffs, I am in agreement.

Between now and then though, I am an optimist that teams like Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Charlotte that through ownership and management have publicly stated and made transactions that back up the claim they are going playoffs or bust look at pieces Toronto has as a means of knocking off the bubble competition (like Toronto) and gain an advantage of the other bubble teams (like each other). I could be dead wrong on that. Lets hope I'm not.

[Lark Benson]

I have been a supporter of blowing it up for a while now, but I worry that our best chance to make moves was prior to or at the draft. Not sure what the market is right now. The teams that had cap space have used it, so the deals become harder to navigate to match the salaries.

To me, trading Gay for the Cavs #1 pick was the quickest, easiest way to the ball rolling. Now that that train has sailed, I'm not sure what we could get in return.

Agree completely. But I'd still rather bottom out now than tread water for another 2 years or more. But that's just a matter of fan perspective, and I think if nothing else this poll reflects the fact that Raps supporters would apparently rather see any kind of short term success than be dragged through another 2-3 year rebuild unless the team magically hits lottery gold.

[mcHAPPY]

I have been a supporter of blowing it up for a while now, but I worry that our best chance to make moves was prior to or at the draft. Not sure what the market is right now. The teams that had cap space have used it, so the deals become harder to navigate to match the salaries.

To me, trading Gay for the Cavs #1 pick was the quickest, easiest way to the ball rolling. Now that that train has sailed, I'm not sure what we could get in return.

Was that even an option though? I know it was rumoured but I can't see it having had any credibility.

[Lark Benson]

Yeah you raise a lot of good points especially if the Raptors are not taking any salary in to next season.

If we reach the trade deadline, there is nothing of value to be obtained via trade, and the Raps are sitting outside the playoffs, I am in agreement.

Between now and then though, I am an optimist that teams like Detroit, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Charlotte that through ownership and management have publicly stated and made transactions that back up the claim they are going playoffs or bust look at pieces Toronto has as a means of knocking off the bubble competition (like Toronto) and gain an advantage of the other bubble teams (like each other). I could be dead wrong on that. Lets hope I'm not.

Completely agree. The reason I chose the 'take what you can get' option in the poll is that between the 2 options it's the lesser of 2 evils to me.

As a random example, let's say Charlotte is the trading partner Ujiri chooses and he really wants to pry MKG away in addition to the expirings, but Charlotte is balking and offering Biyombo and a 2nd rounder instead. Now we can debate the definition of 'valuable assets' and whether Biyombo qualifies, but if that's the best offer Ujiri can find then I'd rather he take that than hold out for something better in the offseason or at next year's deadline. To me it isn't about getting fair market value, it's about getting anything at all you can flip later or develop now.

[Xixak]

I have been a supporter of blowing it up for a while now, but I worry that our best chance to make moves was prior to or at the draft. Not sure what the market is right now. The teams that had cap space have used it, so the deals become harder to navigate to match the salaries.

To me, trading Gay for the Cavs #1 pick was the quickest, easiest way to the ball rolling. Now that that train has sailed, I'm not sure what we could get in return.

How do you even know that was on the table?

[ceez]

i think (HOPE) with the warlord MU, you can safely bet that he isn't going to simply take garbage (expirings --> crappy players to get said expirings) so he can tank. i figure he might flip gay/demar/lowry/? for young talent and picks, if at all.

i THINK the warlord MU knows he doesn't really NEED to trade gay or lowry since they're in contract years and he'll be freed some cash to go get his type players. unless of course a team that isn't necessarily a FA hotspot REALLY wants one of them and figures they have a better chance resigning them than getting them in the open market. entirely possible. charlotte? milwaukee?

demar though... i think is a goner. and i think it has less to do with his skills than his retarded contract. which is kind of a shame because honestly, i like demar. his failings are specific skill based, not attitude or effort. you certainly can't fault DD for taking that contract and running with it.

anyways to get this long winded post back on track, i'm in the tanking crew (go tanking!) but i don't think a fire sale does the team that much good, as patiently waiting for the best move is the best course of action. does that make sense? i've had like 5 coffees and i'm kind of jittery.

[magoon]

A few points.

1. Realistically, we have to do one thing to tank, and that is trade Lowry: once Lowry is gone this team caps out at thirty wins, because all of the remaining point guards are less capable than JL3 was last year.

2. One major argument for trading at least one of Rudy or DeMar is actually the fact that they potentially impede developing Jonas because they're both high-usage-rate players. If Jonas is going to become who we all hope he's going to become, then he's gonna need touches, and a lot of them (and given his extremely efficient shooting percentages he should be getting them anyway) - but so far this preseason Jonas is getting less touches than he did last year (and he didn't get a lot then). If Rudy and DeMar don't drop their usage rates - and let's be honest, that's almost certainly not going to happen - then you need to ship at least one of them so Jonas gets more touches, or else you're simply wasting a year of development for Jonas.

3. This means that, if you think that the Raptors aren't going to make the playoffs this year - and practically every basketball writer on the planet has them topping out, max, at a 7-8 seed and most are skeptical they make it, and that includes most of the good writers, not just the crappy ones churning out words for cash at ESPN - the best thing you can do, from a development standpoint, is trade Lowry and at least one of Rudy or DeMar. Trading Lowry makes your 2014 draft pick better. Trading one of Rudy or DeMar makes Jonas better. The 2014 pick and Jonas improving are the two most obvious immediate opportunities for making the Raptors a better team.

4. Any serious discussion of tanking/rebuilding/whatever also has to discuss trading Amir. Amir is the player who makes the whole team better. Obviously nobody WANTS to trade Amir, he's T-dot to the bone now, but basketball is bidness and you gotta think: what does Amir bring on the trade market? And would that value outweigh the value of Amir staying (since he would obviously help Jonas become a better player faster - the two are a natural pairing)? These are tough questions and I'm not going to give a declarative answer there - but they have to be considered.

5. This doesn't mean we should give up anybody for peanuts, because we shouldn't: Masai understands better than anybody the way to advance quickly within the NBA is to make sure that in any trade, the other side thinks it's a 1:1 trade when in fact it's a 2:1. (e.g. if you trade Rudy for a good prospect or a pick plus expirings, you get a young player with upside, you get money freed up - AND you get more touches for Jonas to develop him faster). We should look to get back at least one good prospect or good pick from any trade. Preferably more if Masai can manage it (and the man is a damn good trader). When I say "good prospect" I don't just mean "young player" either. Bismack Biyombo, for example, is not a good prospect at this point - he's a reclamation project. Good prospects in the league presently are guys like MKG, Giannis, Thomas Robinson, maybe Isaiah Thomas, that level.

[ceez]

basically, i think the warlord MU's best case scenario is to win the championship... but since that isn't happening and isn't realistic with this current team in place he needs to rebuild. best way to rebuild is draft picks/young, core players and $$$. realistically, getting the $$$ is easy. just don't resign anyone. getting the draft picks and young, talented players is the tough part.

[ceez]

ALSO, i really like 'Po and think MU is going to go HARD for him, giving up just about anything outside of JV or a first round pick. dude is really raw but he's already causing chaos on the defensive end. having a guy like him develop alongside JV would be really fun to watch.

[ceez]

like, having a guy like Gay IS fun to watch i'm not disputing that. watching him hit those game winners last year was dope.

BUT

would watching a team that looks like... JV/Amir/Po/Ross/Lowry be that much less exciting? i mean yeah they'd lose a TON of games but that's kind of the point and i think the fans realize that, but at the same time that'd be a pretty fun nucleus to watch right??

people forget how fun Lowry was to watch last year when he was healthy. make him the second option again. let lowry be lowry. have some fun. get in some faces. run around and throw lobs to everyone. take some hilariously ill advised 3s.

then at the end of the year don't resign him and draft smart/exum