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Thread: There is an elephant in the room and his name is Rudy

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default There is an elephant in the room and his name is Rudy

    What to do with Rudy? That is a big question facing the Raptors right now. There are a few options but each option has risks for the Raptors: They include:

    • Extend him
    • wait for him to make a decision on his player option
    • renounce his bird rights and resign him with cap space (~$20M at this time)
    • resign him in 2015
    • trade him
    • trade him and resign him this summer
    • sign and trade him
    • extend and trade him


    EXTEND HIM

    If the Raptors extend Rudy right now this is what they are looking at this in the CBA:

    A contract with an option can be extended if the player opts-in. A contract with an option can also be extended if the player opts-out, as long as the extension adds at least two new seasons onto the contract (excluding any new option year) and the salary in the first year of the extension is not less than the salary in the non-exercised option year.

    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q59
    So:

    1) Rudy can pick up his $19.3M 2014-15 option and the Raptors can extend Rudy for two seasons and have him under contract for the next four seasons (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17). His salary this$17.8M, next year $19.3M, and the final two years would be negotiated but he would be eligible for well over $20M.

    2) Rudy can decline his 2014-15 option and the Raptors can extend him up to 3 more seasons beyond this year - again taking the contract up to 2016-17. However, his starting contract in the extension cannot be less than the $19.3M he would have opted out of for 2014-15.


    WAIT FOR HIM TO MAKE UP HIS MIND ON THE PLAYER OPTION

    Ismail

    If the Raptors do make the playoffs, what do you think the chances are they could get a long term extension with Rudy Gay for less money per year?

    Steve Kyler

    Here is the dilemma — Raptors play great and make the playoffs… Rudy’s value goes up. Raptors play great, Rudy plays terrible, he stays in his contract and does not opt-out. Rudy plays great, Raptors don’t make the playoff Rudy walks for nothing because his value is high.

    I don’t think there is a scenario where Rudy is making less money next year unless its because he signed a big free agent contract and I don’t think Rudy does an extension unless its near the same money, basically because its in his best interest to see how he plays.

    Once you get to the number of zeros in Rudy’s bank account he ability to have power and influence over where you play is desirable. That does not mean a guy wants out. It simply means he wants to chose whether he stays or goes – that is where Rudy is at.

    Read more at http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-rumors...e-kyler-102813
    So:

    1) Regardless of what he decides (opt in/opt out), if Rudy is extended in Toronto next season he will be making $19.3M in that first year.
    2) Do you remember CB4? The Raptors might be walking in to the exact same situation except this time, with so many teams having cap space next summer, he might walk for not even a draft pick in return or Traded Player Exception.

    IF HE OPTS OUT, RENOUNCE HIS BIRD RIGHTS AND RESIGN HIM

    Remember a few years back when the Jefferson declined his option? He eventually resigned with the Spurs for more years and more guaranteed money but a lesser annual amount. To do this with a prearranged agreement is dangerous and would be considered tampering (which led to the Wolves mediocrity for years with KG... Joe Smith anyone?). However this is a very real option. If Rudy opts out, there is enough cap (~$20M minus any first round picks or trades that add money) space that they could renounce him and negotiate a contract that does not start at $19.3M i.e. a more reasonable contract to his production and allows the Raptors to add some more talent in free agency or unbalanced trade.


    IF HE OPTS IN, RESIGN HIM IN 2015

    Can meet foot, now look down road. All the same dilemmas will present themselves again in 2014-15 season EXCEPT:
    1) Raptors will be not have any restrictions on the starting salary for the extension
    2) Rudy is taking a very large risk should he be hurt or have a poor 2014-15 season.


    TRADE HIM

    Many consider it a foregone conclusion that newly hired (and analytically inclined) general manager Masai Ujiri will look to trade Gay (who has a $19.3 million player option for next season) at the earliest opportunity, ....

    http://nba.si.com/2013/10/28/nba-pre...3_a2&eref=sihp
    At this point, Gay is playing this situation like Ujiri with a wait-and-see approach, but this is not something the Raptors can ignore past the trade deadline and end up stuck in the worst of all possible worlds like in 2010 with Chris Bosh. A decision one way or the other is in the cards this season. A lot of people are hoping Gay really does want to stay in Toronto.

    However, Ujiri’s wait-and-see approach is the right way to go for now. December 15 is the date most free agents signed during the summer become available to trade and after 6 weeks, teams are starting to face the reality of where their 2013-14 season is actually headed.

    http://probballreport.com/raptors-se...ay-have-to-go/
    So:

    1) The issue here is if Rudy is traded the flag will be waived on the season. If you think a core of Lowry, DD, Amir, Fields, Ross, and JV are going to the playoffs, you have not been paying attention the last few years - even considering internal or organic growth. Now if a legitimate wing comes back in return, things become interesting but this is extremely unlikely given Rudy's ability to leave new team and his salary.
    2) Similar to Bosh in 2010, Raptors would be at the mercy of Rudy in summer of 2014 if he opts out. He could go for nothing.


    TRADE HIM AND RESIGN HIM THIS SUMMER

    Much like the Spurs example above, Gay opts out and becomes unrestricted with whatever team he was traded to. Raptors could have enough cap space assuming they took back less than $6M for on the books next season leaving approximately $14M to make an offer to Gay.


    SIGN AND TRADE THIS SUMMER

    An option if he opts out of his contract. Same issues as above: do you get assets that appeal to Toronto? Does new team have cap space and all the leverage?


    EXTEND AND TRADE

    Similar to a sign-and-trade arrangement (see question number 90), a team may sign an eligible player to an extension (see question number 59) and immediately trade him to another team. Such an "extend-and-trade" is limited to three seasons, which include any seasons remaining on the player's current contract1. The salary in the first season of the extension can have a 4.5% raise over the last season of the existing contract, and subsequent raises are limited to 4.5% of the salary in the first season of the extension.

    http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q93
    An option if he opts in to his contract. Rules of an extension that applied to Toronto apply to new team except raises are 4.5% and the length is 3 versus 4 years with Raptors.



    That is the breakdown of the situation. I think I've covered every angle. What would you do if you were Masai?
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Tue Oct 29th, 2013 at 06:15 PM.
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Superjudge's Avatar
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    Default

    have him "taken care of"

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    MU has big decisions to make on both Gay & Lowry, which will answer the 'tank' or 'retool' or 'all in' question once and for all.

    Given the risk of losing one/both of them for nothing after the season, I would be willing to bet the question is answered by the trade deadline. Without knowing the market value for each player (or knowing yet whether their play will increase or decrease their value), it's really hard to give a definitive answer as to my preferred direction for this team. I'm so torn.

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    Trade him.

    1. Rudy isn't a bad player, but there is simply no scenario where we end up paying a reasonable ($12-13m per season) amount for her services next year. If he has a great year, he opts out of his contract and tests the market and we end up overpaying to keep him. If he has a bad year, he keeps on for the last year and we're paying $20m next year for a white elephant.

    2. Rudy probably isn't a good fit for the Raptors either; he and DeMar can say "we make each other better" all they like, and it's probably a little true, but what would actively be better is a cheaper small forward who lets Jonas have more touches and/or shoots the three and/or has good basketball IQ. Kyle Korver would be great on the Raptors, for example: he'd space the floor for DeMar's cuts and Jonas' post game and has good floor sense. Heck, at this point I'd almost prefer to see Landry in a lineup with the other four starters, just to see how that lineup works: even if Landry's shot is still crap, I think it would be pretty decent.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    I wonder if Lowry and Gay have had private conversations about making a decision on Toronto together (you know, since they're apparently close friends and all....).

    Meaning, maybe they've decided on the "wait-and-see" approach themselves before telling their agents whether Toronto is a realistic option for their next contracts.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    I only see 3 realistic options for Gay to be traded to: Cleveland, Charlotte and Sacramento.

    Cleveland would have to include either Bynum or Varajao and then some combination of Bennett or Thompson, Gee, Karasev + a min guy (Dellavedova?). They have the Sac top 12 protected pick which is unlikely to come unless Sac makes a trade to get better. They have an future Memphis pick that is likely not coming until 2017 and a 2015 Miami pick.
    Do we need a pick if we can get Bennett, the un-guaranteed Bynum contract and then either Gee or Karasev + Dellavedova? I'd be fine with that without getting a 1st back. Karasev and Bennett are both 2013 firsts, but is Cleveland is in full steam ahead mode, they might be willing to shed the rooks.

    Charlotte potentially 3 first round picks.
    Portland's top 12 protected, Detroit's top 8 protected and their own, which goes to Chicago with only Top 10 protection. Got to expect the Detroit pick will be coming, while the Portland pick is probably 50/50 (they finished with the 10th worst last year). If Charlotte deals for Gay, then they should assume to lose their pick to Chicago.
    All deals would have to start with Ben Gordon's expiring deal, but could include the following combos:
    -MKG
    -Sessions' expiring
    - Biyombo + Taylor/Adrien/Pargo/Tolliver
    -McRoberts (player Option) + Haywood
    If we get MKG, then I wouldn't bank on getting a 2014 pick. If we get Sessions, they may consider it, but I wouldn't bank on it. McRoberts and Haywood is the worst offering, so that could net us the best chance to get the Portland Pick.

    Sacramento hasn't been mentioned a lot, but consider they have finally settled their ownership situation and they have a glut of guards/bad contracts. No picks available, but still some value to be found.
    A possible quartet of Marcus Thornton ($8.5M + 1 yr), John Salmons ($7.6 + 1 yr), Jimmer ($2.4M + Team option), and then the expiring contract of either Greivis Vasquez or Isaiah Thomas. They still have the rookies McElmore and McCallum in the back-court, and either Vasquez or Thomas to play point. Gay at the 3 with Landry/Hayes at PF and Cousins at 5.

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    Charlotte cannot trade their pick this year because of the protection: if their 2015 pick is potentially being traded away then they can't trade their 2014 pick assuming it doesn't get traded away. Charlotte's pick is only tradeable by Chicago.

    I can also see a three-team deal coming together where, if Andrew Bynum ends up being a terrible investment for Cleveland, we send Rudy to Detroit, Detroit sends Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends us Bynum (who we immediately waive because only $6m of his two-year contract is guaranteed, and it's all this year) and whatever incentives we want to make the deal work (probably some combination of Thompson, Bennett, Karasev and picks).

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Trade him.

    1. Rudy isn't a bad player, but there is simply no scenario where we end up paying a reasonable ($12-13m per season) amount for her services next year. If he has a great year, he opts out of his contract and tests the market and we end up overpaying to keep him. If he has a bad year, he keeps on for the last year and we're paying $20m next year for a white elephant.

    2. Rudy probably isn't a good fit for the Raptors either; he and DeMar can say "we make each other better" all they like, and it's probably a little true, but what would actively be better is a cheaper small forward who lets Jonas have more touches and/or shoots the three and/or has good basketball IQ. Kyle Korver would be great on the Raptors, for example: he'd space the floor for DeMar's cuts and Jonas' post game and has good floor sense. Heck, at this point I'd almost prefer to see Landry in a lineup with the other four starters, just to see how that lineup works: even if Landry's shot is still crap, I think it would be pretty decent.
    Same here.

    Unless he averages 25/5/5 at 50%FGM and gets 2.5 3PTM and gets in the ballot for DPOY this season, no way should he be paid in the vicinity of 17-20mil a season.

    But i guess even if he outdoes himself this year, theres still that risk of him "laylow"-ing after getting that fat contract.

    It really sucks that now that they are at the doorstep of a possible playoff appearance, they have to deal with such a dilemma.

    Why must Raptor life be always so complicated?????

  10. #9
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Charlotte cannot trade their pick this year because of the protection: if their 2015 pick is potentially being traded away then they can't trade their 2014 pick assuming it doesn't get traded away. Charlotte's pick is only tradeable by Chicago.

    I can also see a three-team deal coming together where, if Andrew Bynum ends up being a terrible investment for Cleveland, we send Rudy to Detroit, Detroit sends Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends us Bynum (who we immediately waive because only $6m of his two-year contract is guaranteed, and it's all this year) and whatever incentives we want to make the deal work (probably some combination of Thompson, Bennett, Karasev and picks).
    Charlotte can't trade their pick but stipulations can be put on the trade such as Toronto receives the lowest of of the picks they have in possession (just an example).

    As for the 2015 pick, they can put the following stipulation in: Charlotte trade first available pick. The 2015 would be in play because they have a pick coming from Detroit and Portland. It doesn't matter what team owns the pick looking ahead. The rule is a team cannot go two years without first round draft pick.... unless it is a draft night trade where team makes selection and immediately trades it.
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Charlotte can't trade their pick but stipulations can be put on the trade such as Toronto receives the lowest of of the picks they have in possession (just an example).

    As for the 2015 pick, they can put the following stipulation in: Charlotte trade first available pick. The 2015 would be in play because they have a pick coming from Detroit and Portland. It doesn't matter what team owns the pick looking ahead. The rule is a team cannot go two years without first round draft pick.... unless it is a draft night trade where team makes selection and immediately trades it.
    I think you mean 2014 in your scenario above, and I agree that scenario works.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    What to do with Rudy? That is a big question facing the Raptors right now. There are a few options but each option has risks for the Raptors: They include:

    • Extend him
    • wait for him to make a decision on his player option
    • resign him in 2015
    • trade him
    • sign and trade him
    • extend and trade him


    EXTEND HIM

    If the Raptors extend Rudy right now this is what they are looking at this in the CBA:



    So:

    1) Rudy can pick up his $19.3M 2014-15 option and the Raptors can extend Rudy for two seasons and have him under contract for the next four seasons (2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17). His salary this$17.8M, next year $19.3M, and the final two years would be negotiated but he would be eligible for well over $20M.

    2) Rudy can decline his 2014-15 option and the Raptors can extend him up to 3 more seasons beyond this year - again taking the contract up to 2016-17. However, his starting contract in the extension cannot be less than the $19.3M he would have opted out of for 2014-15.


    WAIT FOR HIM TO MAKE UP HIS MIND ON THE PLAYER OPTION



    So:

    1) Regardless of what he decides (opt in/opt out), if Rudy is extended in Toronto next season he will be making $19.3M in that first year.
    2) Do you remember CB4? The Raptors might be walking in to the exact same situation except this time, with so many teams having cap space next summer, he might walk for not even a draft pick in return or Traded Player Exception.


    IF HE OPTS IN, RESIGN HIM IN 2015

    Can meet foot, now look down road. All the same dilemmas will present themselves again in 2014-15 season EXCEPT:
    1) Raptors will be not have any restrictions on the starting salary for the extension
    2) Rudy is taking a very large risk should he be hurt or have a poor 2014-15 season.


    TRADE HIM





    So:

    1) The issue here is if Rudy is traded the flag will be waived on the season. If you think a core of Lowry, DD, Amir, Fields, Ross, and JV are going to the playoffs, you have not been paying attention the last few years - even considering internal or organic growth. Now if a legitimate wing comes back in return, things become interesting but this is extremely unlikely given Rudy's ability to leave new team and his salary.
    2) Similar to Bosh in 2010, Raptors would be at the mercy of Rudy in summer of 2014 if he opts out. He could go for nothing.


    SIGN AND TRADE THIS SUMMER

    An option if he opts out of his contract. Same issues as above: do you get assets that appeal to Toronto? Does new team have cap space and all the leverage?


    EXTEND AND TRADE



    An option if he opts in to his contract. Rules of an extension that applied to Toronto apply to new team except raises are 4.5% and the length is 3 versus 4 years with Raptors.



    That is the breakdown of the situation. I think I've covered every angle. What would you do if you were Masai?
    First question is: will Gay opt-in, or opt-out. This sets the all-important timeline.

    2 recent examples, Paul Pierce and Andre Iguodala both opted OUT, for longer term deals. Even though Gay's last year opt-in is massive (19.3M), I can't see him getting his next deal at less than say (12M for 3 years = 36M). So, I predict he will opt-out, unless he plays lights-out and MU decides to extend him. Players want the sure thing and are always concerned about potential injury, just before signing the next big deal. Agents want to keep 'deal-flow' and new commission billings coming.
    Last edited by golden; Tue Oct 29th, 2013 at 12:05 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Charlotte cannot trade their pick this year because of the protection: if their 2015 pick is potentially being traded away then they can't trade their 2014 pick assuming it doesn't get traded away. Charlotte's pick is only tradeable by Chicago.

    I can also see a three-team deal coming together where, if Andrew Bynum ends up being a terrible investment for Cleveland, we send Rudy to Detroit, Detroit sends Greg Monroe and Charlie Villanueva to Cleveland, and Cleveland sends us Bynum (who we immediately waive because only $6m of his two-year contract is guaranteed, and it's all this year) and whatever incentives we want to make the deal work (probably some combination of Thompson, Bennett, Karasev and picks).
    I'd be happy with MKG anyway. While it doesn't give us an extra pick in 2014 (I honestly think that is unlikely to happen), it does give us a young building block to put on the wing, and would open up subsequent moves to be made, thus assisting our own pick.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote golden wrote: View Post
    First question is: will Gay opt-in, or opt-out. This sets the all-important timeline.

    2 recent examples, Paul Pierce and Andre Iguodala both opted OUT, for longer term deals. Even though Gay's last year opt-in is massive (19.3M), I can't see him getting his next deal at less than say (12M for 3 years = 36M). So, I predict he will opt-out, unless he plays lights-out and MU decides to extend him. Players want the sure thing and are always concerned about potential injury, just before signing the next big deal. Agents want to keep 'deal-flow' and new commission billings coming.
    But this is important:

    If he opts out, any contract he signs with Toronto MUST start at $19.3M


    UNLESSSSSSSSS (I just thought about this)


    Toronto renounces his bird rights (i.e. they will have to use whatever cap space they have which would be roughly $20M not counting any future trades or first round draft picks) and signs him as an UFA. I think that is how San Antonio managed to have Jefferson opt out and sign a smaller yearly salary for more guaranteed money than his final year of contract. Anyone want to check to see if I have that right?
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    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    This might be a little related talking about the small forward spot and free agency:

    But I'm fantasizing about an hour-long decision for LeBron James on ESPN, saying he wants to come play with Jonas Valanciunas for the Toronto Raptors.

    The life of a Raptor fan, folks.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    UNLESSSSSSSSS (I just thought about this)

    Toronto renounces his bird rights (i.e. they will have to use whatever cap space they have which would be roughly $20M not counting any future trades or first round draft picks) and signs him as an UFA. I think that is how San Antonio managed to have Jefferson opt out and sign a smaller yearly salary for more guaranteed money than his final year of contract. Anyone want to check to see if I have that right?
    That is correct.

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    I am not going to change now (maybe after the season has started ). Rudy G's salary, on the currently constituted Raps team whose most optimistic results for the season is a squeak-in into the playoffs, is a cap killer. The team needs changes and we are capped out. Trading him this season I believe does not delay the inevitable changes required. As mentioned in the OP...do we want to experience another Bosh play as well? MU has always said he wants to be in "control". Gay will have the hammer once the trade deadline passes and then reduces MU's options as well as timing flexibility.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Mess's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    But this is important:

    If he opts out, any contract he signs with Toronto MUST start at $19.3M


    UNLESSSSSSSSS (I just thought about this)


    Toronto renounces his bird rights (i.e. they will have to use whatever cap space they have which would be roughly $20M not counting any future trades or first round draft picks) and signs him as an UFA. I think that is how San Antonio managed to have Jefferson opt out and sign a smaller yearly salary for more guaranteed money than his final year of contract. Anyone want to check to see if I have that right?
    And then the Spurs traded him to Golden State for Captain Jack. I think that's the best case scenario. MU jedi-mind-tricks Rudy into signing a reasonably priced UFA deal after this year and then trades him. Or you know, he plays a hell of a lot better and is no longer being overpaid - though he still might not fit with the Raps.

    But that depends on what other moves are made, so it's way too early to tell.

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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    If Gay were traded for Lebron, what would that do to the win totals of the Raps and Heat, and what does that say about Gay's value and his contract?
    It says more about what a ridiculously good value contract Lebron is on. Not fair to compare any veteran to that contract.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Masai was around when Bosh screwed us over, and didn't wait for Carmelo to do it. He knows what to do.

    Trade him.
    @jerboat

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    Quote Craig wrote: View Post
    have him "taken care of"
    There is at least a double entendre in that request. Did you want the Fredo Corleone treatment?

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