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Thread: There is an elephant in the room and his name is Rudy

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Uncle_Si wrote: View Post
    I know this is likely wishful thinking but....from what I gather the Bulls and Deng aren't exactly seeing eye to eye on a contract extension. Can anyone come up with a scenario that he ends up here? I have high hopes for Gay this year, but I'd be thrilled if we could somehow land Deng. He'd bring the defence in toughness MU is preaching (along with Casey for now...) he can hit the three he comes from a winning team I think he'd be a perfect fit. Thoughts?
    Very easy.

    Gay is traded or opts out of his deal signing elsewhere.

    Raptors offer Deng a contract with cap space.... assuming no other contracts added other than a first round pick they'd likely have around $18-20M.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    not sure if this was serious, but....taking a team from 30 to 40 wins isn't worth 17 million....taking a team from 50 to 60 is.
    That is the thing.

    If Toronto had a way to add more pieces that take them from 40 to 50+.... great! I'm all in for keeping the core.

    Unfortunately, even without a starting PG they'll be over the cap next year with Gay at $19.3M.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I think if you remove Gay from this roster it is a 25 win team.
    Rudy has never had a terribly impressive WARP - which is to be expected given that he's always been a bit of a volume shooter/iso shot creator. Jonas, Amir, and Kyle are the major win contributors on this team.

    If Lowry goes down for any length of time, you can start reducing wins by at an 80% rate for each game he misses. There is no Calderon to pick up the pieces this year.
    This is much more accurate, but if you think Jose is a better PG than Kyle is - and I do - Calderon wasn't so much "picking up the pieces" as he was simply playing better basketball.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Uncle_Si's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Very easy.

    Gay is traded or opts out of his deal signing elsewhere.

    Raptors offer Deng a contract with cap space.... assuming no other contracts added other than a first round pick they'd likely have around $18-20M.
    I like where your heads at.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    Rudy has never had a terribly impressive WARP - which is to be expected given that he's always been a bit of a volume shooter/iso shot creator. Jonas, Amir, and Kyle are the major win contributors on this team.



    This is much more accurate, but if you think Jose is a better PG than Kyle is - and I do - Calderon wasn't so much "picking up the pieces" as he was simply playing better basketball.
    First point: I love stats. Really do. Great way to back up the eye test. But stats don't consider talent and Rudy has it. The numbers might not back me up but I think Rudy adds a significant number of wins not only for his production but also because DD can now go against a weaker defender. The reality is Toronto, while with more talent than most previous years, are still a team in need of talent upgrades. They just aren't good enough top to bottom - but especially at the top.


    I think Kyle is a better player than Jose. I think Jose is a better point guard than Kyle on the offensive side of the ball.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    not sure if this was serious, but....taking a team from 30 to 40 wins isn't worth 17 million....taking a team from 50 to 60 is.
    First of all, if Gay started the season with the Raptors last year, i have no doubt in my mind that they would've made the playoffs. 38-40 wins i'm guessing.

    This year with Gay, i expect them to make the playoffs. 42-45 win team. 6th-7th in the East.
    Follow me on Twitter - @11_RRyan

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote TRex wrote: View Post
    First of all, if Gay started the season with the Raptors last year, i have no doubt in my mind that they would've made the playoffs. 38-40 wins i'm guessing.

    This year with Gay, i expect them to make the playoffs. 42-45 win team. 6th-7th in the East.
    Really? I have many doubts but I respect your optimism and opinion.

    Before the last 8 games of the year the Raptors were 10-15 with Gay in the starting lineup - I know he was injured, but injuries happen to all teams. That is 32-33 wins on an 82 game season.

    Winning 7 of 8 in April is the definition of #AprilFoolsGold

    Before the winning of 7/8 games, they had 27 wins through 74 games.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TRex's Avatar
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    Not very good in numbers. And i dont really pay attention to all the analytics stuff specially when it comes to the NBA.

    All i know is, last year i predicted them to win 33-35 games. 9th in the East could sneak in at 8th if everything goes right. They won 34 games, finished 9th in the East.

    This year, they're a much better team. They have better talents. DD and JV are much improved. Fields looks healthy. They now have players that knows what it takes to win in Gay and Hansbrough.

    42-45 win team. 6th-7th in the East.
    Follow me on Twitter - @11_RRyan

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    First point: I love stats. Really do. Great way to back up the eye test. But stats don't consider talent and Rudy has it. The numbers might not back me up but I think Rudy adds a significant number of wins not only for his production but also because DD can now go against a weaker defender. The reality is Toronto, while with more talent than most previous years, are still a team in need of talent upgrades. They just aren't good enough top to bottom - but especially at the top.
    I don't think stats or even advanced stats are the whole of the story either, but:

    1.) When you discount the games Bargnani didn't play, Toronto performed roughly about the same pre-Rudy as post-Rudy.
    2.) Memphis was simply better post-Rudy, and their weakness in the playoffs was something he would not have remedied (lack of shooters to provide floor spacing).

    I mean: what does Rudy bring to the Raptors? He's a solid player, fine, but there are lots of solid players. He can create his own shot, which is great except that it turns him into an iso-baller and that's a crappy offensive model. What specific skills does Rudy have that the team needs that aren't already provided by DeMar?

    I think Kyle is a better player than Jose. I think Jose is a better point guard than Kyle on the offensive side of the ball.
    I think Kyle's defense was not up to scratch after he returned from his injury and I think his preseason D this year has been lacklustre, and if Kyle's D isn't up to snuff then Jose is definitely the better player.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    But stats don't consider talent and Rudy has it.
    With Rudy Gay, DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto has one of the most athletic teams in the East. Given the way that both DeRozan and Valanciunas have upped their games over last year, I think this team will surprise a lot of folks, including their own fans. Teams like the Indiana Pacers have trouble keeping up with superior talent and athleticism. Add to that the kind of intensity and attention to detail that Hansbrough and Fields bring to the table, and Toronto could have a winning season--assuming that the team stays together.

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    Quote magoon wrote: View Post
    I don't think stats or even advanced stats are the whole of the story either, but:

    1.) When you discount the games Bargnani didn't play, Toronto performed roughly about the same pre-Rudy as post-Rudy.
    2.) Memphis was simply better post-Rudy, and their weakness in the playoffs was something he would not have remedied (lack of shooters to provide floor spacing).

    I mean: what does Rudy bring to the Raptors? He's a solid player, fine, but there are lots of solid players. He can create his own shot, which is great except that it turns him into an iso-baller and that's a crappy offensive model. What specific skills does Rudy have that the team needs that aren't already provided by DeMar?



    I think Kyle's defense was not up to scratch after he returned from his injury and I think his preseason D this year has been lacklustre, and if Kyle's D isn't up to snuff then Jose is definitely the better player.
    A common refrain. simple answer: The abilities to play the SF position, which DeMar is too busy playing SG to deal with.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie MoscowRussia's Avatar
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    It's definite.
    If he performs well and we get into the playoffs resign him for 12-14 mil./year.
    If he doesn't agree with this terms or plays poorely - trade him for SF 'Po or, I would prefer, MKG.

    Other possibilities are just the different ways to screw you up.
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    Quote MoscowRussia wrote: View Post
    It's definite.
    If he performs well and we get into the playoffs resign him for 12-14 mil./year.
    If he doesn't agree with this terms or plays poorely - trade him for SF 'Po or, I would prefer, MKG.

    Other possibilities are just the different ways to screw you up.
    That is the point of the thread though.

    If he performs well and gets in to the playoffs it means he was not extended because the extension kicks in at $19.3M to start.
    If he performs well and gets in to the playoffs he is going to be more than $12-14M.

    There is no RFA with Gay as he will be UFA.
    There is no Bird Rights worth mentioning because the last thing the team will do is resign him to what he could get which is $20+ per year - that is Joe Johnson type money but at least JJ was an all-star.

    If he doesn't agree to an extension or resign, you can't trade him unless you get Raptors, new team, and Rudy all on same page - much easier said than done.


    The situation is as far from black and white as you can get.
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    A common refrain. simple answer: The abilities to play the SF position, which DeMar is too busy playing SG to deal with.
    Definitely in agreement.

    There is a duplicity of skill set but there is no question Rudy is a SF who can occasionally play PF and DeRozan is a SG who can occasionally play SF.
    "Championships are what we live for, now lets go win them."
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    Basketball has clear winners every night --
    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

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    Raptors Republic Starter themasao's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    A common refrain. simple answer: The abilities to play the SF position, which DeMar is too busy playing SG to deal with.
    Right. But presumably you get back someone who also has that valuable ability to play the SF position. That's why they call it a trade, not a giveaway.

    Which means the real question isn't what Rudy brings to the team above and beyond what other members of the team bring, but rather, what does Rudy bring above and beyond the league average replacement (which is what we would ideally be getting back as a placeholder in any trade).

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    Quote themasao wrote: View Post
    Right. But presumably you get back someone who also has that valuable ability to play the SF position. That's why they call it a trade, not a giveaway.

    Which means the real question isn't what Rudy brings to the team above and beyond what other members of the team bring, but rather, what does Rudy bring above and beyond the league average replacement (which is what we would ideally be getting back as a placeholder in any trade).
    I answered a simple, oft repeated question. You raise a different topic, but we can talk "ideals" and "presumptions" until the cows come home, but there's rarely anything ideal about negotiating with other GMs. Reality is that this franchise has been in search of a quality SF since VC left, and with the likes of LBJ and KD in their prime, teams aren't giving up quality replacements for quite possibly a rental.

    Let's see how this starting unit performs over the first 20-25 games. If they don't look very promising, then I'm totally in agreement with some degree of dismantling,,,,, pieces to be determined.

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    Raptors Republic Starter themasao's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    I answered a simple, oft repeated question. You raise a different topic, but we can talk "ideals" and "presumptions" until the cows come home, but there's rarely anything ideal about negotiating with other GMs. Reality is that this franchise has been in search of a quality SF since VC left, and with the likes of LBJ and KD in their prime, teams aren't giving up quality replacements for quite possibly a rental.

    Let's see how this starting unit performs over the first 20-25 games. If they don't look very promising, then I'm totally in agreement with some degree of dismantling,,,,, pieces to be determined.
    I should just clarify that I really don't want to see this team blown up. I'm just conflicted because I recognize that sitting on this kind of situation and letting the cards fall as they may tends to result in irreparable franchise damage (see: Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Dwight Howard).

    The emotionless manager in me wants to trade Rudy when his value peaks, hopefully some point in December or January, regardless of how the team is doing. The shameless fanboy in me wants us to get in the damn PLAYOFFS for the first time in eons, so I can go to Hooters guilt free again.

    When I'm posting on this site, the heartless manager usually wins out, but I should set the record straight -- from the moment Big Val wins the tip to the moment Lowry dribbles the clock out, I will be cheering my brains out for a Raptors win.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote themasao wrote: View Post
    I should just clarify that I really don't want to see this team blown up. I'm just conflicted because I recognize that sitting on this kind of situation and letting the cards fall as they may tends to result in irreparable franchise damage (see: Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard and Dwight Howard).

    The emotionless manager in me wants to trade Rudy when his value peaks, hopefully some point in December or January, regardless of how the team is doing. The shameless fanboy in me wants us to get in the damn PLAYOFFS for the first time in eons, so I can go to Hooters guilt free again.

    When I'm posting on this site, the heartless manager usually wins out, but I should set the record straight -- from the moment Big Val wins the tip to the moment Lowry dribbles the clock out, I will be cheering my brains out for a Raptors win.
    I just had one of those life-altering moments of self-reflection. This pretty much describes my mindset perfectly!

    Great post
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    It really sucks that now that they are at the doorstep of a possible playoff appearance, they have to deal with such a dilemma.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote caroledauthier wrote: View Post
    It really sucks that now that they are at the doorstep of a possible playoff appearance, they have to deal with such a dilemma.
    I know it was just one game buuuuuut....

    if they play like last night they are not on the doorstep to the playoffs.

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