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Thread: Tim Leiweke and Wiggins

  1. #41
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
    What if we keep this team and just look for a team that wants to unload a late lotto pick? we already have like what 2 first rounder this season
    Well, we only have one actually. The only extra 1st we have so far is the 2016 one we got in the Bargs trade.

  2. #42
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Well, we only have one actually. The only extra 1st we have so far is the 2016 one we got in the Bargs trade.
    Ah damnn. I thought it was 2014, oh well
    "You never heard of DeMar just google him, the defense don't know what to do wit him"

  3. #43
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Just thought I'd throw this out there for everyone.

    You don't need to be the worst team to win the lottery. Breakdown....

    Worst - 4 times
    2nd worst - 4 times
    3rd worst - 7 times (most)
    4th worst - 1 time
    5th worst - 5 times (2nd most)
    6th worst - 3 times
    7th worst - 2 times
    8th worst - 1 time
    9th worst - 1 time
    10th worst - 0
    11th worst - 1 time

    It's a lottery for a reason. Teams have gotten lucky many times, and the worst team has gotten lucky very few times. The historically best spots to be in have somehow been 3rd worst and 5th worst, because it really is just dependent on chance. Basically, you don't need to aim for the bottom, just make sure you're not really in the playoff race, since you can figure probably 2-3 teams per conference will aim for the playoffs and miss.

    So yeah, the Raps don't necessarily need to totally gut their team. They just need to change enough to drop out of the playoff race, and ideally end up among the worst 5 or 6 teams.

  4. #44
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    You don't need to "win" the lottery to come out of this draft a winner.
    The other point is that if MU were to start moving players for draft picks (even mid-late 1st round picks), he could then look to bundle those picks (either multiple picks or a pick & player) for a higher pick. Basically a 1st wave of trades could leave the Raptors with multiple 1st round picks, but he could easily look to use those picks (and players and/or future picks) to move up in the draft, even on draft night. It doesn't have to be a single-step process of acquiring an additional lottery pick(s) in the upcoming draft.

  5. #45
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Just thought I'd throw this out there for everyone.

    You don't need to be the worst team to win the lottery. Breakdown....

    Worst - 4 times
    2nd worst - 4 times
    3rd worst - 7 times (most)
    4th worst - 1 time
    5th worst - 5 times (2nd most)
    6th worst - 3 times
    7th worst - 2 times
    8th worst - 1 time
    9th worst - 1 time
    10th worst - 0
    11th worst - 1 time

    It's a lottery for a reason. Teams have gotten lucky many times, and the worst team has gotten lucky very few times. The historically best spots to be in have somehow been 3rd worst and 5th worst, because it really is just dependent on chance. Basically, you don't need to aim for the bottom, just make sure you're not really in the playoff race, since you can figure probably 2-3 teams per conference will aim for the playoffs and miss.

    So yeah, the Raps don't necessarily need to totally gut their team. They just need to change enough to drop out of the playoff race, and ideally end up among the worst 5 or 6 teams.
    And this only takes into consideration the teams that won the first pick overall. The lottery also decides who will pick 2nd and 3rd.. and if you look back in history there were a lot of teams in the bottom part of the lottery that also "won" by moving into 2nd or 3rd.

    The Raptors for example were the 3rd worst team going into the 2011 draft, but ended up picking 5th because two other teams won the lottery.

    As long as the Raptors are outside of the playoffs and closer to the 5-9 range there is a good chance they will get in the top 3.

  6. #46
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptorsss's Avatar
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    First, I'll choose the Indiana, Houston, Golden State. Detroit, Milwaukee, Old Philadelphia GM model over Charlotte, Cleveland, Washington, Phoenix, Minnesota, Clippers, Sacramento, OKC. And this will never change.

    Outside, of correctly criticizing Colangelo and knowing what a championship team looks like, there is nothing that he has said or done (besides hiring Ujiri), that makes me think he's any better. To think that his success in LA can be replicated in Toronto is naive the markets are fundamentally different. Colangelo won executive of the year in Phoenix too if you remember, but he still wasn't able to replicate that success here.

    Now, I trust Masai and until he makes a major mistake (or multiple) that won't change.

    Parker and Exum are the only prospects I like, although I expect there to be all-stars in the late first round that people haven't talked enough about yet. Bennett will be a bust and Olynyk will be a good role player, but with very little to no upside. We didn't miss out on Canadian talent last year.
    -"You canít run from me. I mean, my heart donít bleed Kool-Aid."
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  7. #47
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    And this only takes into consideration the teams that won the first pick overall. The lottery also decides who will pick 2nd and 3rd.. and if you look back in history there were a lot of teams in the bottom part of the lottery that also "won" by moving into 2nd or 3rd.

    The Raptors for example were the 3rd worst team going into the 2011 draft, but ended up picking 5th because two other teams won the lottery.

    As long as the Raptors are outside of the playoffs and closer to the 5-9 range there is a good chance they will get in the top 3.
    Actually, if a team is in the 5-9 range, they have a very poor chance of being in the top 3. #5 has approx a 30% chance of being in the top 3. #6 has a 20% chance. #7 15% chance etc.


    The historically best spots to be in have somehow been 3rd worst and 5th worst, because it really is just dependent on chance.
    it is, but chance is based on odds, and odds are heavily in favour of the worst teams.

    As always, what happened in the past doesn't change the probabilities of a lottery in the future (unless we want to debate the paradox of probabilities but then I'll be very far off topic )

  8. #48
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    Quote Raptorsss wrote: View Post
    First, I'll choose the Indiana, Houston, Golden State. Detroit, Milwaukee, Old Philadelphia GM model over Charlotte, Cleveland, Washington, Phoenix, Minnesota, Clippers, Sacramento, OKC. And this will never change.

    Outside, of correctly criticizing Colangelo and knowing what a championship team looks like, there is nothing that he has said or done (besides hiring Ujiri), that makes me think he's any better. To think that his success in LA can be replicated in Toronto is naive the markets are fundamentally different. Colangelo won executive of the year in Phoenix too if you remember, but he still wasn't able to replicate that success here.

    Now, I trust Masai and until he makes a major mistake (or multiple) that won't change.

    Parker and Exum are the only prospects I like, although I expect there to be all-stars in the late first round that people haven't talked enough about yet. Bennett will be a bust and Olynyk will be a good role player, but with very little to no upside. We didn't miss out on Canadian talent last year.
    BC did win Exec of year in 2007 in Toronto.

  9. #49
    Raptors Republic Veteran white men can't jump's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    Actually, if a team is in the 5-9 range, they have a very poor chance of being in the top 3. #5 has approx a 30% chance of being in the top 3. #6 has a 20% chance. #7 15% chance etc.




    it is, but chance is based on odds, and odds are heavily in favour of the worst teams.

    As always, what happened in the past doesn't change the probabilities of a lottery in the future (unless we want to debate the paradox of probabilities but then I'll be very far off topic )
    It was more just to point out that tanking doesn't mean aiming for worst record. IMO, just making sure you're out of the playoff race basically guarantees you'll be among the worst 7 or 8 teams. Obviously in terms of odds, it's best to be the worst, but historically it has proven to not be the best, and not be better than 2nd, 3rd, or 5th...which is indeed just purely how chance played out.

    So really, my take is that the team doesn't need to aim for the bottom, or in other words, doesn't need to trade every asset other than Jonas, to have a good shot at adding the #1 pick. I'd prefer to keep a slightly better team where they won't be starting totally from scratch if they land Wiggins or another potential star, as opposed to really gutting the team (by really gutting, I mean at least trading all 3 of Rudy, Kyle and DeMar, as well as possibly other assets like Amir, Ross, Fields, etc.).

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    . IMO, just making sure you're out of the playoff race basically guarantees you'll be among the worst 7 or 8 teams.
    Yeah, if we get 8th we could lose a coin flip and then pass up a franchise changing player again! lol, don't take me too seriously, just venting frustration.

    First three games have firmly entrenched this iteration of the team as a 7-11 in my mind. 100% on board for a tank, just hope Gay can pick it up for a stretch first.

  11. #51
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    Quote Raptorsss wrote: View Post
    First, I'll choose the Indiana, Houston, Golden State. Detroit, Milwaukee, Old Philadelphia GM model over Charlotte, Cleveland, Washington, Phoenix, Minnesota, Clippers, Sacramento, OKC. And this will never change.
    Indiana: Didn't make the playoffs for five years. Drafted very smartly in 2010 (Paul George, Lance Stephenson) and it's not a coincidence that this is when they started to turn things around. Followed that up by trading away the Kawhi Leonard pick in 2011 for George Hill, which might seem like a bad idea in retrospect but Indiana didn't need another small forward when they had Paul George and Danny Granger already and Hill was the point guard that fit best for them that they could get. Signed David West on a short-term deal right after he had torn his ACL at the end of the previous season, which carried with it a high degree of risk (because a 30+ player recovering from a torn ACL is a risky investment, period) and they got lucky.

    Houston: Had a slow tank rebuild that was accelerated greatly when OKC decided to trade James Harden because OKC is owned by a skinflint GM. People here keep saying they want to follow the Houston model, but the Houston model is "get incredibly lucky in a way that will not happen again" so please everybody shut the fuck up about Houston.

    Golden State: In 2011 pulled off the definition of a tank trade (Monta Ellis and Ekpe Udoh for the injured Andrew Bogut) which ended up getting them Klay Thompson. Were actively tanking to the point of forcing their best players to sit (they were getting criticized by half the NBA fanbase for doing this!) in order to get the high pick that ended up being Harrison Barnes in 2012.

    Detroit: Played like shit for three years. Drafted Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight in 2010 and 2011, and gave them both heaps of minutes to develop them, which meant they lost a lot of games and then Andre Drummond fell to them at #9 in 2012 and they took the risk and it paid off. Drafted KCP in 2013 and then started spending money on free agents, and nobody knows if they have a winning team yet.

    Milwaukee: HA HA HA HA HA HA are you serious oh god I think you're serious

    To sum up: you have listed one team that drafted well after a period of terribleness and took some smart risks (Indiana), one outright and very deliberate tanker (Golden State), one team that got ridiculously lucky (Houston), one team that just sucked for a long time (Detroit) and Milwaukee, and if you want to be Milwaukee then I would respectfully suggest go cheer for Milwaukee instead while they're still in Milwaukee.

  12. #52
    Raptors Republic Starter Raptorsss's Avatar
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    Ok, I forgot 2007, I deserved that.

    At magoon I listed teams that were successful and unsuccessful with both strategies, I was hoping that you would of picked up on that.

    It comes down to the team 'valuing the spirit' of the game/league. I rather a team try to develop from within and try to compete day-in-day out whether their chance of winning is futile or not. Selling the farm to play the lottery, is treating the fans,players,coaches, league and opposing players with disrespect and makes the team un-watchable.
    -"You canít run from me. I mean, my heart donít bleed Kool-Aid."
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  13. #53
    Raptors Republic Superstar Rapstor4Life's Avatar
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    drafting Wiggins would be a major Erection all across Canada yes even the women...

  14. #54
    Raptors Republic Starter IROR's Avatar
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    Better odds at landing him when he hits UFA (maybe) in 9 years...just saying. Riggin for Wiggins 2021!

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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    It was more just to point out that tanking doesn't mean aiming for worst record. IMO, just making sure you're out of the playoff race basically guarantees you'll be among the worst 7 or 8 teams. Obviously in terms of odds, it's best to be the worst, but historically it has proven to not be the best, and not be better than 2nd, 3rd, or 5th...which is indeed just purely how chance played out.

    So really, my take is that the team doesn't need to aim for the bottom, or in other words, doesn't need to trade every asset other than Jonas, to have a good shot at adding the #1 pick. I'd prefer to keep a slightly better team where they won't be starting totally from scratch if they land Wiggins or another potential star, as opposed to really gutting the team (by really gutting, I mean at least trading all 3 of Rudy, Kyle and DeMar, as well as possibly other assets like Amir, Ross, Fields, etc.).
    What do you mean by having a "good shot" at the #1 pick. Do realize that the finishing in the 6-8 area overall means that the probability of winning the lottery is about 1 in 20? Even finishing in the bottom 3 gives less than a 1 in 5 chance of winning the first pick. Even if the Raptors tank hard, there is no guarantee that they finish in the bottom 3 or 5. If you think that draft goes 3-5 deep in superstar talent, then it might be worth a look, but otherwise I think it is a high risk strategy. If Wiggins really wants to play in TO, then maneuver the franchise to have a ton of cap space and a solid young core for when he first becomes a free agent. It might be a more sure bet to land Wiggins than the lottery, which has such low odds for an individual team no matter where you end up.

  16. #56
    Raptors Republic Superstar Axel's Avatar
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    Quote Bouncepass wrote: View Post
    What do you mean by having a "good shot" at the #1 pick. Do realize that the finishing in the 6-8 area overall means that the probability of winning the lottery is about 1 in 20? Even finishing in the bottom 3 gives less than a 1 in 5 chance of winning the first pick. Even if the Raptors tank hard, there is no guarantee that they finish in the bottom 3 or 5. If you think that draft goes 3-5 deep in superstar talent, then it might be worth a look, but otherwise I think it is a high risk strategy. If Wiggins really wants to play in TO, then maneuver the franchise to have a ton of cap space and a solid young core for when he first becomes a free agent. It might be a more sure bet to land Wiggins than the lottery, which has such low odds for an individual team no matter where you end up.
    Pretty sure it does. That is the consensus at least.
    Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Smart, Exum, Gordon....

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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Randle scares me a little. If I'm picking someone after Wiggins, Marcus Smart is my choice.
    Wayne Seldon. The Exum kid, one of the Harrisons. There will be plenty of talent available.

    With 2 first round picks you could change the complexion of the team immediately.

    Tear this team down pronto. No Colangelo creation is ever going anywhere as he doesn't know how to construct a roster.

    The past few games show us what we already know. Ill fitting team with ill fitting players. They only beat Milwaukee because Larry Drew refused to put his starters back in. If the Raps lost to a team that had, Wolters, Middleton, Mayo, Henson on the court at crunch time, that would have ben an early season low point.

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    Raptors Republic Starter peanutwoozle's Avatar
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    Quote brothersteve wrote: View Post
    That's a great plan for 3 more years in the lottery - we could just re-name the Raptors as the "Timberwolves ver. 2.0" and try to beat their current streak of 9 consecutive seasons in the lottery.

    If you think TV ratings are low now - blow up, tank, guarantee this team will be in the lottery in June this year and next. Grange wants to blow up the Raptors at the start and end of every season. Maybe there will be a TSN 3 set up to carry the games?
    well said, all of this tanking talk is giving me cancer.

  19. #59
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
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    Quote Raptorsss wrote: View Post
    Ok, I forgot 2007, I deserved that.

    At magoon I listed teams that were successful and unsuccessful with both strategies, I was hoping that you would of picked up on that.

    It comes down to the team 'valuing the spirit' of the game/league. I rather a team try to develop from within and try to compete day-in-day out whether their chance of winning is futile or not. Selling the farm to play the lottery, is treating the fans,players,coaches, league and opposing players with disrespect and makes the team un-watchable.
    I guess it depends on what one values more in the long term - spirit or a greater chance at wins.

    As for making the game unwatchable or 'disrespectful', those things are very quickly forgotten. OKC became everyone's favorite small market 'underdog' and really, a treat to watch. The Spurs are perhaps the most respected franchise in the game, if not in all of NA sports.

    Watching a seed grow might suck, but the apple is still delicious.

  20. #60
    Raptors Republic Starter peanutwoozle's Avatar
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    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I guess it depends on what one values more in the long term - spirit or a greater chance at wins.

    As for making the game unwatchable or 'disrespectful', those things are very quickly forgotten. OKC became everyone's favorite small market 'underdog' and really, a treat to watch. The Spurs are perhaps the most respected franchise in the game, if not in all of NA sports.

    Watching a seed grow might suck, but the apple is still delicious.
    OKC is the exception, not the rule. Yes they tanked, yes they got 1 superstar and 2 all stars with their high picks, but a lot had to go right for them, not one time did they get the 1st overall pick, but I ask you this, would you call it a success if
    1) Portland took Durant instead of oden
    2) Miami took Westbrook instead of Beasley
    3) Memphis took Harden instead of Thabust

    Look at other teams who have tanked.
    Sacramento - They have been tanking since god knows when and have gone nowhere fast
    Portland - They picked up 2 all-stars, but it blew up in their face and 3 years later are back to where they were before

    Here's an interesting read for ya here.
    http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/13/ta...rk-in-the-nba/

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