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  • #46
    jamesk wrote: View Post
    In the lottery era, there have been 150 teams to reach 55 wins or more -- a level around which a team can be said to be contending. How many of those 150 were bad at any point in the preceding four years? How many endured a season of, say, fewer than 30 wins? How many walked the path that tanking teams aspire to walk? Just 34 of 150, or 23 percent, according to the tallies of economist David Berri on the Freakonomics blog. And only two teams -- the Heat last year and Chris Paul's Hornets -- have gone from winning fewer than 20 games to winning more than 55 in four years or less (the Thunder never won fewer than 20). In other words, bad teams have almost no shot of becoming great with any speed, and one of the two that did did so through the power of cap space, not the draft. That's a blow to tanking teams everywhere.

    Does more time help? Not much. Win 34 games or fewer in any season, according to Arturo Galletti at The Wages of Wins, and over the next decade your chances of winning more than 55 are abysmal, at just 12 percent. Think about that. A 34-win team is not bad, winning 41 percent of its games. This season's closest equivalent would be the Timberwolves. But still, a team that good has only about a 1-in-10 chance of winning 55 or more at any point in the next decade. Heaven forbid you are a truly bad team. Even given a full decade to get it done, teams have done the full metamorphosis, from the cocoon of a sub-20 win season to the contending butterfly of 55-plus wins, only six percent of the time, and again, one of those was the outlier Heat.
    Meanwhile, in the four seasons after getting a top-three pick, teams are not living the dream. Dignam shows missing the playoffs for four straight years even after getting that plum draft pick is common, and writes: "After four years -- the amount of time on rookie scale contracts -- about 31 percent of the teams with top three picks hadn’t made the playoffs even once. Almost 26 percent of these teams’ best showing was only the first round. And a further 22 percent of teams topped out in the second round."
    It amazes me how many mid-late first round guys come out of relative obscurity to become nba studs.....and how many high first rounders fail. Certainly there can be franchise changers but they are few and far between. You look at a guy like Leonard on the Spurs and say I would love to have him on our team. Finding these guys that will pan out is the key. Hopefully UM is the guy who can find these guys. I think you need some baseline level of talent before you can take a bigger step up in the standings via the draft. Blowing up your whole team leads to pieces that often don't complement each other and further changes. I would like to see 41 wins this year then find that hidden gem in the draft .

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    • #47
      Step aside Drake. We have a new Global Ambassador:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tank_(American_singer)

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      • #48
        psrs1 wrote: View Post
        It amazes me how many mid-late first round guys come out of relative obscurity to become nba studs.....and how many high first rounders fail. Certainly there can be franchise changers but they are few and far between. You look at a guy like Leonard on the Spurs and say I would love to have him on our team. Finding these guys that will pan out is the key. Hopefully UM is the guy who can find these guys. I think you need some baseline level of talent before you can take a bigger step up in the standings via the draft. Blowing up your whole team leads to pieces that often don't complement each other and further changes. I would like to see 41 wins this year then find that hidden gem in the draft .
        Then the Raptors really have nothing to lose. They already have a roster of pieces that do not complement each other. This team is still built on the Bargnani BluePrint with a cast of mismatching talent. No matter what they do they are going to need to make some serious changes if the championship lip service served up by Leiweke is ever to happen. Might as well get some assets out of those serious changes versus letting guys walk (specifically Gay and Lowry).

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        • #49
          Karl Marx. wrote: View Post
          I do not want to start normative argument on should we rebuild or not. We are rebuilding and that is reality. And since that is our direction, it is obvious that Masai has made a huge mistake by not trading Gay to Detroit when he had a chance. He felt that he would get more, he passed on Detroit offer and now, given how badly Gay is playing, it is obvious that we will never get a better offer.

          Gay is not good enough to help us move forward, but is good enough to help us will enough games to avoid having a good draft pick in the following years. Not to mention the fact that his minutes as well as touches he is getting are preventing young prospects such as Ross to develop their game.

          Not to mention the fact that Masai decided to keep Casey who we all know is a bad coach. With that in mind, it is clear that so far Masai have failed.

          Raptors are fortunate to finally have a GM that doesn't panic and trade away assets for scrap - thus finally breaking the cycle of futility this team has been stuck in. Detroit will give a lot more for Gay in Jan/Feb than they would have in Aug/Sept and Ujiri will likely have more & better options then if he still wants to do a deal.

          It's good to actually have a GM on board who has been in this situation before and came out the big winner
          The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

          Stephen Brotherston, Pro Bball Report

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          • #50
            Is anyone besides myself more excited about what warlord Ujiri is going to do come June than what is going on during the season? D: lol MAN! bring on the new Era!

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            • #51
              brothersteve wrote: View Post
              Raptors are fortunate to finally have a GM that doesn't panic and trade away assets for scrap - thus finally breaking the cycle of futility this team has been stuck in. Detroit will give a lot more for Gay in Jan/Feb than they would have in Aug/Sept and Ujiri will likely have more & better options then if he still wants to do a deal.

              It's good to actually have a GM on board who has been in this situation before and came out the big winner
              Good luck trying to trade Gay on 35% FG. Keep in mind that last season he shot 42% for the season and only Detroit was interested. I am sure Masai would take that deal in a heartbeat now.

              And when we talk about Masai and his success in Denver, other than trading Anthony for solid players that were made to look better than they are by coach Karl, what exactly did he do?

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              • #52
                brothersteve wrote: View Post
                Raptors are fortunate to finally have a GM that doesn't panic and trade away assets for scrap - thus finally breaking the cycle of futility this team has been stuck in. Detroit will give a lot more for Gay in Jan/Feb than they would have in Aug/Sept and Ujiri will likely have more & better options then if he still wants to do a deal.

                It's good to actually have a GM on board who has been in this situation before and came out the big winner
                Wow... just wow.

                Over the past four lottery-bound seasons, the Raptors have watched helplessly as key injuries have impacted the roster and the team didn’t have sufficient depth to keep their season from imploding.
                link

                Injuries. Injuries have decimated this team over the past 4 seasons
                Link

                While they can’t go back, with a few changes next season, the Raptors plan on following a healthy Bargnani into the playoffs.
                Link

                If Colangelo has proven anything over the past seven years, it is that he can make deals
                the outright firing of Colangelo would make little sense
                Link

                A trade like the one: Lowry for a draft pick – they just don’t come along all that often.
                Gay moves the Raps up another significant step towards challenging the big boys
                Link

                If you want a good comparison, Paul George is becoming what Rudy Gay is now
                Link

                but there were a lot of senior NBA analysts who thought the Raptors could have been a top four team in the East last season if they had Rudy Gay from day one. That’s a little overly optimistic – but not crazy either
                Link

                and here I was thinking Colangelo was good at making deals, and it was injuries and a lack of continuity that was this teams problems....

                .... amazing how much changes when the guy in charge is no longer around!!!

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                • #53
                  Brothersteve, you're now reaching Doug Smith levels of delusion/denial....

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                  • #54
                    Nilanka wrote: View Post
                    Brothersteve, you're now reaching Doug Smith levels of delusion/denial....
                    Amen

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