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  • #31
    psrs1 wrote: View Post
    What happens when your high draft pick does not pan out? You are worse off with both on court product
    and continued erosion of fan base.....Blake Murphy's article today is on point.
    Nothing he said in it was a surprise to any of those advocating a drastic rebuild in the forums. You also missed his two references to the fact that he is wavering in his stance. I think many in your camp have a sporting "moral" issue and its misplaced because players are not and never will be losing games on purpose. Rather, management finds doing nothing to the current roster is going to be more injurious to this franchise than peeling back. If this results in more losses this season so be it.

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    • #32
      octothorp wrote: View Post
      Sure, but even that doesn't move the needle beyond slightly-better-than-remote. This is all a game of which extremely long-odds strategy is better than the other extremely long-odds strategies.
      Well, yes.

      Winning a sports championship is always long odds. Winning an NBA championship is longer-odds than most other leagues because the game is so star-driven: a LeBron or Kobe or MJ directly affects in between 75 and 100 percent of most playoff games, whereas in any other sport any individual player is lucky to directly affect even 50 percent. That's just the nature of the game.

      We have a few advantages. We're a large, rich city with rich ownership who are willing to go into the luxury tax if it's merited; you can really only say that about maybe a third of the league at best. Players now generally recognize that the tax scare from a decade ago has been resolved/never really existed in the first place and it's no more financially onerous for them to play here than it is in New York or LA. We're as much fun as New York or Chicago is and we have a devoted fanbase, and all of that counts for players considering they live here a hell of a lot of the time. If we can get some momentum going we'll soon be equivalent to the Knicks or the Bulls - a team that's rich enough and a city that's glamorous enough to be considered a perennial contender for any major free agent. Really, it almost happened back in Vince's heyday and only Vince's tanking killed it and basically set us back a decade behind schedule.

      But in order to get to that point, we need the momentum to start building again, and the only way we can credibly get it at this point - given a lack of major trade assets and the likelihood that major free agents aren't coming here until we've proven ourselves at least a little - is the draft. It is the best worst option.

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      • #33
        Magoon, I think you've got a good perspective about it. The 'best worst option' is probably right. I'd say that Toronto being a desirable free agent destination on par with New York is a nice theory, and certainly a possibility, but still a theory until it happens. It's another of those 'a lot needs to go right to get there' things.

        Regardless of what strategy Ujiri takes, chances are, a decade from now, we're going to be looking back at this and wondering how it all went wrong. Maybe we get screwed in the lottery. Maybe we draft the one bust. Maybe we never get the right coach, or the right complimentary players, or maybe the superstar we draft turns out to be a malcontent who wants out at his first free agency. Maybe our superstar player gets caught doing crack with a hooker in a private room at Bier Markt. The reality is, absolutely everything has to go right to get from where we are now and where we want to go.

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        • #34
          octothorp wrote: View Post
          Magoon, I think you've got a good perspective about it. The 'best worst option' is probably right. I'd say that Toronto being a desirable free agent destination on par with New York is a nice theory, and certainly a possibility, but still a theory until it happens. ....
          One thing that is different now and will be different for the forseeable future is that a lot of Toronto born talent is entering the league and they will likely have no issues with playing in TO.

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          • #35
            octothorp wrote: View Post
            Sure, but even that doesn't move the needle beyond slightly-better-than-remote. This is all a game of which extremely long-odds strategy is better than the other extremely long-odds strategies.
            octothorp wrote: View Post
            Magoon, I think you've got a good perspective about it. The 'best worst option' is probably right. I'd say that Toronto being a desirable free agent destination on par with New York is a nice theory, and certainly a possibility, but still a theory until it happens. It's another of those 'a lot needs to go right to get there' things.

            Regardless of what strategy Ujiri takes, chances are, a decade from now, we're going to be looking back at this and wondering how it all went wrong. Maybe we get screwed in the lottery. Maybe we draft the one bust. Maybe we never get the right coach, or the right complimentary players, or maybe the superstar we draft turns out to be a malcontent who wants out at his first free agency. Maybe our superstar player gets caught doing crack with a hooker in a private room at Bier Markt. The reality is, absolutely everything has to go right to get from where we are now and where we want to go.
            octothorp: first of all you're right. Odds are no matter what Toronto does it is not going to deliver a championship.

            However if the draft is the best worst option and no significant player is ever going to view Toronto as a desirable free agent destination are you suggesting the Raptors are going to forever suck and the only option is to get a superstar in the 10-17 range?

            Bold: nailed it. It is the best shot in a game of no guarantees.

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            • #36
              Matt52 wrote: View Post
              I don't see it being a long haul.

              I see a two year bottom feeding followed by an emergence in 2015-16.

              But maybe I am just a hopeless romantic stuck in a deadened relationship with the toronto raptors.
              This, if done right we could have a franchise player, 2 all-star caliber guys (Val and someone else), some solid role players (maybe DD and Amir) and a bevy of cap space in 2016 to go after Durant or whoever.

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              • #37
                Nosike wrote: View Post
                This, if done right we could have a franchise player, 2 all-star caliber guys (Val and someone else), some solid role players (maybe DD and Amir) and a bevy of cap space in 2016 to go after Durant or whoever.
                That is the plan.

                Is it foolproof? Hardly.

                Is it better than sticking with this core and hoping to squeeze in to the playoffs each year - and likely failing? Absolutely... in my opinion.

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                • #38
                  Matt52 wrote: View Post
                  What happens when your 2free agents/2 starters/2 best players leave?

                  What happens when we keep waiting for potential to emerge and growth from guys who have been in the league 5-6-7-8 years that never happens?


                  I read Blake's article. He makes good points. If you're content to hope for an average team, go for it. If you're content to be forced in to a rebuild in another 3-4 years as JV is entering his prime, go right ahead, stay the course. He can riddle off all his warnings and each one can equally be countered. It comes down to are you sick of hoping to be one of the teams that might make the playoffs? I am. I deserve more as a fan. I want more. I want the opportunity to be great. I put too much time in to following this team to be happy to be a speed bump for the truly elite. Toronto has a corner stone (JV) already in place... not even OKC started their rebuild with that.


                  As for worse on court product and continued erosion of the fan base.... ARE YOU KIDDING ME? The Toronto fan base continues to be one of the best in the league as one of the top 5 worst teams of the last 18 years. Can an already bad on court product get worse - yes - but we're talking a borderline playoff team at best here anyways.
                  I didn't read this whole post, and I know that your opinion of the direction we should take is very well researched and thought out. I completely understand. But to call us a great fanbase at the moment is like saying the owner in the first Major League movie was one of the best because she wanted to make a team so bad that they could leave Cleveland and move to a new stadium in Miami and draw better players. That's better for the franchise, technically. Right? I mean, that's a decisive, forward-thinking mentality.

                  Half the fanbase refuses to cheer for the people on the court. I'm all for tanking when our highly-touted GM makes that the official plan and puts moves in place, but if the team we have on the court now is capable of wins, I'm cheering for wins. If Ujiri blows it up this afternoon and puts scrubs on the court, I'm still cheering for wins but completely understanding if the assembled roster is incapable and looking forward to what that brings.
                  Last edited by Mundy; Fri Nov 15, 2013, 12:46 PM.
                  "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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                  • #39
                    Mundy wrote: View Post
                    I didn't read this whole post, and I know that your opinion of the direction we should take is very well researched and thought out. I completely understand. But to call us a great fanbase at the moment is like saying the owner in the first Major League movie was one of the best because she wanted to make a team so bad that they could leave Cleveland and move to a new stadium in Miami and draw better players. That's better for the franchise, technically. Right? I mean, that's a decisive, forward-thinking mentality.

                    Half the fanbase refuses to cheer for the people on the court. I'm all for tanking when our highly-touted GM makes that the official plan and puts moves in place, but if the team we have on the court now is capable of wins, I'm cheering for wins. If Ujiri blows it up this afternoon and puts scrubs on the court, I'm still cheering for wins but completely understanding if the assembled roster is incapable and looking forward to what that brings.

                    Bold: It's not that the current roster is incapable of wins. However, are they and continue to be for an extended future capable of wins or at least be very competitive against the BEST teams in the league. The objective being going deep into the playoffs. The answer imo is "no".

                    Even though I am for a breakup of the current team, cheering for the team to fail is counter productive. That would minimize a return for our disposable players in a trade. I am assuming of course that Ujiri blows up the roster in December and floors a team talently incapable of winning much the rest of the season (enabling a high pick).

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                    • #40
                      Mundy wrote: View Post
                      Half the fanbase refuses to cheer for the people on the court.
                      What?? This isn't remotely true. Is this really why those who don't want major changes continue to pretend that those who do hate the current players and won't cheer for the Raptors until they're gone? What a crock.

                      I cheer for the Raptors to win every night, and am happy when they do. I'd be overjoyed if this team somehow won a playoff series -- I just don't think it's possible. My belief that it's not possible doesn't get in the way of my desire to see it happen.

                      It's possible to both be a good fan, cheer for your team, and still believe IT'S JUST NOT THAT GOOD A TEAM.
                      Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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                      • #41
                        jimmie wrote: View Post
                        What?? This isn't remotely true. Is this really why those who don't want major changes continue to pretend that those who do hate the current players and won't cheer for the Raptors until they're gone? What a crock.

                        I cheer for the Raptors to win every night, and am happy when they do. I'd be overjoyed if this team somehow won a playoff series -- I just don't think it's possible. My belief that it's not possible doesn't get in the way of my desire to see it happen.

                        It's possible to both be a good fan, cheer for your team, and still believe IT'S JUST NOT THAT GOOD A TEAM.
                        Well you and I are going to have to agree to disagree. Almost every website that I go to (partially on here, although I'm not laying a blanket of ignorance on the tanking side) decries wins as a road to a worse draft pick and finishes it off #tankforwiggins.
                        All I meant to say is that cheering for a "w" for the Raps and actually supporting the team are 2 different things, in my eye at least. If Ujiri decides to change the team via trades/free agency, shouldn't we give him the benefit of the doubt? I mean we have so many contracts expring in the next two years and there's LOTS of good drafts coming up, why not let him do his thing instead of assuming that you understand his plan or the offers he's been given from other GM's? What if we get rid of Rudy for a serviceable player and make a smart mid-lotto pick and sign a better pg than Lowry, and become a 52-win team next year? There's more than one avenue to win, and I'm just so over everybody saying that they're a fan of the team and talking shit about the roster after every game, win or lose
                        "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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                        • #42
                          Bendit wrote: View Post
                          Bold: It's not that the current roster is incapable of wins. However, are they and continue to be for an extended future capable of wins or at least be very competitive against the BEST teams in the league. The objective being going deep into the playoffs. The answer imo is "no".

                          Even though I am for a breakup of the current team, cheering for the team to fail is counter productive. That would minimize a return for our disposable players in a trade. I am assuming of course that Ujiri blows up the roster in December and floors a team talently incapable of winning much the rest of the season (enabling a high pick).
                          I get that. But guess what.... I don't really care because I have literally zero control over it. That's why I just hope for whatever roster our GM puts on the floor to play to their full potential. If they don't achieve, then it's on the GM to make the smart moves and I'll start each Raps game with the same enthusiasm I always do in the interim.
                          "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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                          • #43
                            Mundy wrote: View Post
                            Well you and I are going to have to agree to disagree. Almost every website that I go to (partially on here, although I'm not laying a blanket of ignorance on the tanking side) decries wins as a road to a worse draft pick and finishes it off #tankforwiggins.
                            All I meant to say is that cheering for a "w" for the Raps and actually supporting the team are 2 different things, in my eye at least. If Ujiri decides to change the team via trades/free agency, shouldn't we give him the benefit of the doubt? I mean we have so many contracts expring in the next two years and there's LOTS of good drafts coming up, why not let him do his thing instead of assuming that you understand his plan or the offers he's been given from other GM's? What if we get rid of Rudy for a serviceable player and make a smart mid-lotto pick and sign a better pg than Lowry, and become a 52-win team next year? There's more than one avenue to win, and I'm just so over everybody saying that they're a fan of the team and talking shit about the roster after every game, win or lose
                            I don't think I've read anybody argue that there's only 1 correct path. What I have heard argued is that the path of keeping a capped-out core of Gay, DeRozan & Lowry, moving forward, is very likely not one of those viable paths to success.

                            As strong an advocate I am for rebuilding/retooling this team, I never cheer against them. The win against a confused Memphis team and a potential win against a Rose-less Bulls team tonight are, however, hollow victories. I don't believe they are a true measure of this roster's worth and they could prove to be wasted wins, should MU decide to choose one of many rebuilding/retooling paths that include the 2014 draft as a component.

                            You can support your team 100% while still believing certain player(s), or the coach or GM, are not ideal fits for the team you cheer for. You can also be passionate about your team, while believing the direction they're taking is a poor choice (ie: the BC years).

                            It's said that love is blind, but being a passionate, loyal supporter of a sports franchise shouldn't require blinders.

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                            • #44
                              Mediumcore wrote: View Post
                              Just putting the question out there, just to separate the fair weather tankers from the real tankers, but are you ready to commit to a Charlotte Bobcats type rebuild (worse case scenario)? We all know the draft lottery doesn't guarantee anything. We can argue that they didn't have MU making their picks, but nobody can guarantee things will go any better for us than it has for them, and there is no denying that the pro tankers are advocating we do as Charlotte has done.

                              I can tell you that there is more than a handful of Charlotte fans that would take a 50 win team without a prayer of contending over what they have right now (insert joke about them taking a 30 win team)

                              I'm just asking 'cause lately with all the tank avatars and all the posters jumping on the band wagon is getting pretty crazy. How committed are ya'll?
                              Umm, I watched Jabari Parker and something exploded in my pants. Tank away!!!
                              “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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                              • #45
                                CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                                I don't think I've read anybody argue that there's only 1 correct path. What I have heard argued is that the path of keeping a capped-out core of Gay, DeRozan & Lowry, moving forward, is very likely not one of those viable paths to success.

                                As strong an advocate I am for rebuilding/retooling this team, I never cheer against them. The win against a confused Memphis team and a potential win against a Rose-less Bulls team tonight are, however, hollow victories. I don't believe they are a true measure of this roster's worth and they could prove to be wasted wins, should MU decide to choose one of many rebuilding/retooling paths that include the 2014 draft as a component.

                                You can support your team 100% while still believing certain player(s), or the coach or GM, are not ideal fits for the team you cheer for. You can also be passionate about your team, while believing the direction they're taking is a poor choice (ie: the BC years).

                                It's said that love is blind, but being a passionate, loyal supporter of a sports franchise shouldn't require blinders.
                                That's all fair, and like I said I have a lot of respect for how you voice your opinion. I also agree that this exact roster has a finite capacity for success. But if we were truly going to blow it up and tank, we would have taken that Detroit offer for Stuckey and CV because NOBODY IS GOING TO GIVE UP A FIRST FOR RUDY. I agree that rebuilding and retooling aren't always mutually exclusive, but a lot of people (again... not pointing fingers at posters here, I'm not even on here enough to know most of youse guyses opinions) speak about losing and tanking like they're the only way to rebuild. Everything about our future has been tied to the 2014 draft but until I see one single move that signals us becoming a worse team than we started the season, I'm going to assume that we're going the retooling route. This is why I'm anti-tank, because at the moment, it's just a bunch of people putting words in Ujiri's mouth.
                                WITH THAT BEING SAID.....
                                If we DO get rid of, say Rudy and DD and trade Lowry for an asset at the deadline, as long as we do it properly I'm cool with that. I have no problem tanking if it's MU that pulls the trigger.
                                "This just in........ THE RAPTORS ARE AMAZING!"

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