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Thread: Offseason Needs - Amir Replacement

  1. #1
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    Default Offseason Needs - Amir Replacement

    Never too early to start thinking about the offseason. I'm making this post based upon the assumption that Bosh signs a new contract with the Raptors.

    Anyway to me our biggest offseasons personnel tasks are the following:

    1a) Move Calderon's contract ideally for 2011 expirings.
    1b) Grab a backup for Jack, ideally a young guy with upside who can defend.
    2) Sign Amir cheaply or replace him.
    3) Sign Wright cheaply or replace him.
    4) Get a Gortat level C (either with MLE or some sort of trade.)

    I'm actually a bit concerned about (2), since from comments by Buddhafan, Amir is unlikely to resign or will probably want too much money.

    I've identified a pretty good replacement. I've been watching a lot of Wizards games lately, and really like James Singleton. He is an undersized (6'8), but extremely athletic older (29) PF who was traded from the Mavs recently.
    Obviously no spring chicken, but still very athletic and can probably be signed cheaply. 3 years, 8-9 mil should get it done (I doubt the smaller fish are going to get huge money this summer), but I'd be comfortable doing 4 years, 16 mil.

    Additional facts:
    1) Excellent Net PER splits at the PF spot:
    http://www.82games.com/0809/08DAL11.HTM#bypos
    2) Great +/- numbers.
    3) Strong and extremely athletic, good range out to three.
    4) Plays good sound basketball, doesn't do too much.
    5) Can play some minutes guarding Cs.
    6) Very good shot blocker.

    I suspect Washington is high on him too, and Dallas might want him back. But BC should seriously look to grab him if/when Amir walks or asks for too much money.

  2. #2
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    Oh wow, epic fail. So the PER splits stuff I posted was from last year, not this one.

    Still, my eyeballs say he is a good player, despite the data perhaps not agreeing with this:
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...singlja01.html

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    I will make the counter point on why Amir would maybe stay.

    1. If he can earn and get more minutes between now and through the playoffs
    2. If the Raptors continue to work with him on his offense and continue to encourage him to continue to up his utilization percentage.
    3. If the contract is for say three years with a Player Option in year three.
    4. If he believed that he would have an opportunity to be able to continue to up his minutes and utilization percentage over the next two years.

    Two facts of note

    1. Over the 16 games he has scored in double figures 9 times including I believe 4 out of the last 5.
    2. Over the last 5 games he has averaged about 19 minutes a game and only 3 fouls per 36 minutes.

    Of course Bosh was not available for the last three of those games so we will just have to see what plays out for the remainder of the season.

    However, it seems to me that if he can continue to keep his foul problem under control that he will continue to see increased minutes and utilization percentage even after Bosh returns.

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    Singleton = a poor man's Junkyard Dog

    Singleton is a good player.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I am of the belief that the cost to keep Amir is going to be far less than what some are thinking. I think after the big stars are gone the free agency money is going to vanish very quickly. No one is going to want to spend much money on anyone else because if they wait a year they could probably get that same player for 40 cents on the dollar.

    EDIT: Beyond all that just who the heck is going to give Amir a starting gig? He was given the role in Detroit and couldn't play well enough to keep it. He struggled to find himself with his brief time as a Buck and here he is thriving in a reserve role. I think he's a bench player and anyone who looks at him will be thinking just that.
    Last edited by Apollo; Thu Feb 25th, 2010 at 02:16 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I am of the belief that the cost to keep Amir is going to be far less than what some are thinking. I think after the big stars are gone the free agency money is going to vanish very quickly. No one is going to want to spend much money on anyone else because if they wait a year they could probably get that same player for 40 cents on the dollar.

    EDIT: Beyond all that just who the heck is going to give Amir a starting gig? He was given the role in Detroit and couldn't play well enough to keep it. He struggled to find himself with his brief time as a Buck and here he is thriving in a reserve role. I think he's a bench player and anyone who looks at him will be thinking just that.
    1. You do not know what happened in Detroit. I do. Johnson got screwed big time by Curry, in spades.

    2. Whether Johnson will ever start in the NBA on a regular basis only the future will tell. His scoring per 36 minutes over the last 16 games is the same that Bargnani's was when Bargnani was 22. On top of that Johnson is scoring a lot more efficiently and plays a vastly superior defense.

    3. Power forward with some exceptions is no longer considered the main offensive threat for most NBA teams. A guy who can play 30 plus minutes and put up a 15 - 10 along with playing excellent defense can start at PF in the NBA.

    4. Go back and look at tape of him from just 3 years ago and even the beginning of this season. He continues to lift weights and add upper body strength and mass. I lifted weights for decades and I can tell you straight up that based upon the increase in his upper body muscular development over the last 3 years that if continues with the weights he will probably eventually approach 250 or or more which is plenty big for a PF.

    Of course only time and his foul problem will determine what happens. If can control or eliminate the foul problem he will become a solid NBA starter, straight up. Make no mistake about it.
    Last edited by Buddahfan; Thu Feb 25th, 2010 at 03:23 PM.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    1. You do not know what happened in Detroit. I do. Johnson got screwed big time by Curry, in spades.
    How did Curry "screw" him? Because he wasn't impressed enough to put him past Maxiell and Kwame Brown on the depth chart to get a sniff at Sheed, Mcdyess and Prince backup minutes?

    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    2. Whether Johnson will ever start in the NBA on a regular basis only the future will tell. His scoring per 36 minutes over the last 16 games is the same that Bargnani's was when Bargnani was 22. On top of that Johnson is scoring a lot more efficiently and plays a vastly superior defense.
    You can make stiffs into juggernauts by using per stats... Not that I'm calling Amir a stiff. I like his game, I just don't feel he's going to be starting next season.

    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    3. Power forward with some exceptions is no longer considered the main offensive threat for most NBA teams. A guy who can play 30 plus minutes and put up a 15 - 10 along with playing excellent defense can start at PF in the NBA.
    You didn't answer my question. Who will give him this starting gig?

    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    4. Go back and look at tape of him from just 3 years ago and even the beginning of this season. He continues to lift weights and add upper body strength and mass. I lifted weights for decades and I can tell you straight up that based upon the increase in his upper body muscular development over the last 3 years that if continues with the weights he will probably eventually approach 250 or or more which is plenty big for a PF.

    Of course only time and his foul problem will determine what happens. If can control or eliminate the foul problem he will become a solid NBA starter, straight up. Make no mistake about it.
    Amir is 210lbs right now. I lift weights too but that doesn't make me an authority to pull 40lbs increase guestament out of thin air. Chris Bosh was really thin and really young when he came into the league too. Seven years later he's only added 30lbs and that's with hitting the weight hardcore over the past few off-seasons.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran LBF's Avatar
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    amir would sign for 4 years 16 million honestly i doubt hed ask for anything over the mle.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Amir is making $3.6M now. I don't think $4M is unrealistic but I just have this funny feeling people are going to be low balling guys once you get past the stars. The fallout of CBA negotiations is probably going to be the cap dropping significantly and the system itself being changed.

  10. #10
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    Default .

    I'd prefer if Amir can be signed, since it means we don't have to use our MLE for a replacement, but he is only one piece in the puzzle.

    BTW, can anyone think of a way for us to pry away Gortat from Orlando using our MLE..? Perhaps sign someone they want with the MLE and trade for Gortat? Haywood presumably will stay with Dallas. I can't think of anyone else who is quite the answer...suggestions would be welcome.

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    The biggest impediment to the Raptors resigning Amir Johnson is the luxury tax.

    The Raptors are already around the expected luxury tax threshold, on a high cap figure, before the sign any non-minimum contract free agents. Signing Amir to a $4 million a year deal suddenly becomes quite costly.

  12. #12
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    Uh..if the luxury tax is a concern, then we may as well ship out Bosh. Can't build a good team under the tax.

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    Quote Ripp wrote: View Post
    Uh..if the luxury tax is a concern, then we may as well ship out Bosh. Can't build a good team under the tax.
    Sam Presti would like to dispute this.

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    Good thing our starting line up is composed of young productive players on rookie deals, like Sam Presti's Thunder.

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    Quote Ripp wrote: View Post
    Good thing our starting line up is composed of young productive players on rookie deals, like Sam Presti's Thunder.
    Misunderstood, thought you were making a blanket statement. Yeahh Raptors cap situation is tight.

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    Sorry for my curt tone. But basically, if MLSE is unwilling to go above the tax, or only go slightly above it, then there is no real chance of heading to the ECF unless someone other than Bosh suddenly massively outperforms their contract (e.g., Demar morphing into Kobe next season, Bargs into the C version of Dirk.)

    Dallas is spending 90 mil on their roster. Celtics 85 mil. Cavs 83 mil. Lakers 91 mil. Raptors spending 68 mil. So if MLSE is serious about competing, they will need to step their game up substantially. And Toronto is a far richer market than several of the above teams, so there is limited excuse for cheapness.


    If they are unwilling to go above the tax, then it means they do not truly want to compete, so it doesn't really matter whether Bosh stays or not.

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    I think MLSE will be willing to pay the luxury tax for a team that is expected to make a long playoff run.

    But for a first round exit? I doubt it ... and I don't think they should either.

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    Quote Dave wrote: View Post
    I think MLSE will be willing to pay the luxury tax for a team that is expected to make a long playoff run.

    But for a first round exit? I doubt it ... and I don't think they should either.
    I agree 100%. MLSE had no problem paying luxury tax after the Raptors lost game seven of round two.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Buddahfan's Avatar
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    Without Shaq tonight Hickson will get some decent burn.

    The Cavs will be playing three pretty good PF's all night, Jamison, Varejao and Hickson tonight.

    Hopefully Johnson doesn't get himself into foul trouble. If he stays on the court this game will be a good indication of where he is at versus some good Power Forwards.

    I like Hickson's game a lot . He is younger than Johnson and right now has a far more varied game on offense.

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    Quote Buddahfan wrote: View Post
    I like Hickson's game a lot . He is younger than Johnson and right now has a far more varied game on offense.
    Buddahfan, could explain this a little more? From appearances and from numbers their offense is similar. They both get points at the rim and are both just awful shooters; Hickson jumpers = .284 eFG%. Amir's are marginally worse (.257 eFG%).

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