Tank Standings Thread

[mcHAPPY]

Bulls aren't trading assets like picks to get rid of boozer. The money they save on deng trade ie waive Bynum will offset his payout

They come out financially even with the benefit of picks and cap space.... And hopefully for them a David Robinson situation

[S.R.]

I like looking at the total W's each team has, as a good indicator of where teams stand. The bottom half of the league, in terms of wins, is closely bunched together. Any streak, winning or losing, could cause significant movement in the standings, at this point of the season.

While this is true, the W/L column at any time is misleading. Hollinger puts a huge emphasis on SOS (strength of schedule) and point diff for a reason.

Those are two big reasons I expect it to be impossible for the Raps to drop into the lottery, save a major injury/injuries, or multiple trades. The Raps have had a positive point diff for some time now, all while playing the hardest schedule in the East. They are, and have been, considerably better than the teams below them in the standings. For Toronto to "out-lose" those teams at this point will take drastic changes.

"Only a few games ahead/behind" is one of the most misleading false hopes in pro sports. As Raps fans used to finishing 8th to 11th in the conference for so much of the "almost there" Colangelo era, we should know this.

[Masai Ujiri]

While this is true, the W/L column at any time is misleading. Hollinger puts a huge emphasis on SOS (strength of schedule) and point diff for a reason.

Those are two big reasons I expect it to be impossible for the Raps to drop into the lottery, save a major injury/injuries, or multiple trades. The Raps have had a positive point diff for some time now, all while playing the hardest schedule in the East. They are, and have been, considerably better than the teams below them in the standings. For Toronto to "out-lose" those teams at this point will take drastic changes.

"Only a few games ahead/behind" is one of the most misleading false hopes in pro sports. As Raps fans used to finishing 8th to 11th in the conference for so much of the "almost there" Colangelo era, we should know this.

Such a good post.

One thing that people don't seem to understand about ahead/behind, is this. Yeah you might only have 6 more wins than the last place team. But that means that just for you to finish TIED with them, they have to WIN 6 more games than you do over the course of the season.

EDIT: Just to put it in perspective, let's say we want to position ourselves in the bottom 4. To do that we'd have to be about as bad as Orlando. Now say Orlando continues winning at their current rate. That's a 24-58 record. For us to finish 24-58, we'd need to go 8-42 over the remaining 50 games, which is actually worse than our 4-19 stretch to start the year last year. Even if you deal Lowry, does he drop our winning percentage by 34%? With an easier schedule over the next 50 games? I doubt it.

[Masai Ujiri]

Just like it would be hard for the Heat to lose 9 more games than Toronto, and we move to 2nd. It would be just as hard for the Bucks to win 9 more games than us and we move to last.

I'm sure nobody thinks we have any chance of passing the Heat so... what about the other end.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

i was actually thinking that if Masai was serious in making a push this season, Deng would have been the perfect pickup. And if it doesnt work out, at least he's an expiring and can part with him when the season is done. I guess the cavs are the ones going through that route.

[Nilanka]

i was actually thinking that if Masai was serious in making a push this season, Deng would have been the perfect pickup. And if it doesnt work out, at least he's an expiring and can part with him when the season is done. I guess the cavs are the ones going through that route.

Ujiri would be Public Enemy #1 if he traded three picks for an expiring contract

[magoon]

Ujiri would be Public Enemy #1 if he traded three picks for an expiring contract

Cleveland can get away with it because they're surplus picks and because they didn't really trade much of anything. The Sacramento first-rounder which probably ends up being a second-rounder in 2017, Portland's second-rounders in '15 and '16 which are not going to be terribly amazing, and the right for Chicago to swap first-round picks in 2015 only if Cleveland's pick isn't a lottery pick, so either Cleveland drops a few spots or nothing happens at all.

The Sacramento pick is the best thing Chicago got and it's still not very good. Cleveland didn't give away any of the good stuff (i.e. their own 2014 pick, the Miami/Memphis picks in 2015, etc.).

[p00ka]

i was actually thinking that if Masai was serious in making a push this season, Deng would have been the perfect pickup. And if it doesnt work out, at least he's an expiring and can part with him when the season is done. I guess the cavs are the ones going through that route.

There isn't still this leap that if MU isn't tanking, he must be "pushing" is there? He has said all along that his plans for building the team into a contender is a long process that needs patience. He's not suddenly going to alter his basic course and do an ill-advised BC type "push".

[S.R.]

There isn't still this leap that if MU isn't tanking, he must be "pushing" is there? He has said all along that his plans for building the team into a contender is a long process that needs patience. He's not suddenly going to alter his basic course and do an ill-advised BC type "push".

I agree. Larry Bird gave the Pacers a 5 year turnaround timeline when he arrived. If you want proper growth that builds a talented roster with flexible team-friendly contracts, all while retaining most of your own picks/prospects for long-term health, it's going to take multiple seasons.

Most rebuilds are quick-fix. You mortgage the future and either score big like the Heat, or screw yourself like the Nets and Knicks.

I'm more than fine with Ujiri being patient. No bad contracts. Don't mortgage the future.

[Masai Ujiri]

I agree. Larry Bird gave the Pacers a 5 year turnaround timeline when he arrived. If you want proper growth that builds a talented roster with flexible team-friendly contracts, all while retaining most of your own picks/prospects for long-term health, it's going to take multiple seasons.

Most rebuilds are quick-fix. You mortgage the future and either score big like the Heat, or screw yourself like the Nets and Knicks.

I'm more than fine with Ujiri being patient. No bad contracts. Don't mortgage the future.

This imo is the best way to at least ensure you can create a sustainable top 4 playoff team.

Might not win anything, but I can't complain about 50 wins every year and giving teams a run for their money in the playoffs.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

While this is true, the W/L column at any time is misleading. Hollinger puts a huge emphasis on SOS (strength of schedule) and point diff for a reason.

Those are two big reasons I expect it to be impossible for the Raps to drop into the lottery, save a major injury/injuries, or multiple trades. The Raps have had a positive point diff for some time now, all while playing the hardest schedule in the East. They are, and have been, considerably better than the teams below them in the standings. For Toronto to "out-lose" those teams at this point will take drastic changes.

"Only a few games ahead/behind" is one of the most misleading false hopes in pro sports. As Raps fans used to finishing 8th to 11th in the conference for so much of the "almost there" Colangelo era, we should know this.

I wasn't implying anything about Toronto and any chance they might have of finishing near the top of the tank standings.

I understand all the various nuances in play regarding scheduling, injuries, etc.. but was simply pointing out that nearly half the league is currently within 4 wins of each other, meaning very little in the standings (for playoffs or tanking) is set in stone so early in the season. One injury or trade could lead to huge changes in the standings (the recent CHI/CLE trade being a great example of this).

[S.R.]

I wasn't implying anything about Toronto and any chance they might have of finishing near the top of the tank standings.

I understand all the various nuances in play regarding scheduling, injuries, etc.. but was simply pointing out that nearly half the league is within 4 wins of each other, meaning very little in the standings (for playoffs or tanking) is set in stone so early in the season. One injury or trade could lead to huge changes in the standings (the recent CHI/CLE trade being a great example of this).

Agreed. Just elaborating on the bold - for the Raps that injury/transaction would actually have to be quite severe to drop them into a top 5 or 6 pick.

[mcHAPPY]

I wasn't implying anything about Toronto and any chance they might have of finishing near the top of the tank standings.

I understand all the various nuances in play regarding scheduling, injuries, etc.. but was simply pointing out that nearly half the league is currently within 4 wins of each other, meaning very little in the standings (for playoffs or tanking) is set in stone so early in the season. One injury or trade could lead to huge changes in the standings (the recent CHI/CLE trade being a great example of this).

It could..... definitely could.

Not sure what this does for Chicago. The boxscore geeks aren't too impressed with the trade.

When looking at Chicago's record this year they are 10-13 with Deng in line up and 4-5 without him.... pretty much the same.


As an aside, it looks like Deng was pretty pissed off about last year's treatment:

Paxson admits Bulls erred leaving Deng alone after spinal tap in spring: "we did not handle that as well as we could have and should have."

— David Aldridge (@daldridgetnt) January 7, 2014

To recap: Bulls' doctors went w/team to Miami while Deng was having violent reax to spinal tap, suffering migraines after spinal fluid leak.

— David Aldridge (@daldridgetnt) January 7, 2014

[mcHAPPY]

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...thinking-ahead

Zach Lowe's take

Cleveland could have continued its run toward the bottom ahead of a stacked draft. That would have probably been the wiser move in a vacuum, but the Cavs aren't operating in a vacuum. They're operating in a world in which they've made promises, and under an emotional owner who wants victory now.

This trade puts Chicago in a very good place. It's hard to come out much better while losing an All-Star in what amounts to a salary dump/tanking maneuver.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

This season is really shaping up to be an upside-down season in the EC, after the top-2 teams; Chicago & Atlanta now on the way down, Cleveland on the way up.

Tonight is an interesting night for the EC and tank standings:
- Toronto @ Indy
- Washington @ Charlotte
- Philadelphia @ Cleveland (will Deng suit up?)
- Detroit @ NY
- Phoenix @ Chicago
- LAL @ Dallas
- Boston @ Denver
- Memphis (SA), Milwaukee (GS), Utah (OKC) and Sacramento (Portland) are also in action, in much less winnable games


It's crazy how tight the middle/bottom of the league standings are, considering that half the league currently have 10-15 wins on the season, with 13 teams having 11-15 wins.

Sacramento, Utah, Chicago, NY, Cleveland and Washington all won last night.

There are now 13 teams that have between 12-15 wins on the season (only 3 teams have less than 12 wins - 11, 10 and 7 wins).

The 8 teams that are clearly the class of the NBA have 22 or more wins.

That leaves 6 teams in the middle, with 16-20 wins, including Toronto. Atlanta is the only other EC team in that group but, with the injury to Horford, they're likely to drop into that bottom pack pretty quickly.

Toronto's only saving grace is playing in the EC, since their record leaves them in the 3rd/4th place in the EC standings, currently positioning them for home-court in the 1st round of the playoffs.

On one hand, they're a top-tier EC playoff team. On the other hand, they're the epitome of "in no man's land" in the NBA (based on current win totals). I'm very curious how MU views this team and how much weight he puts on the competitive balance of the EC this season, when evaluating his team.