#1 - The 6-12 (6-13?) start with Rudy Gay is pretty much a write-off. This team has changed so much, but all "W/L totals" analysis includes that record and roster.
#2 - W/L ignores SOS and point diff. Yes, the Raps are hovering at .500 and in "no man's land" in terms of W/L. But, they've had the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league yet have a positive point diff on the season (+1.3 - including the Rudy Gay team) and a top 10 point diff over the last 10 games (+4.1). They're 7-3 in the last 10, which puts them in the company of the Pacers, Heat, Spurs, and Warriors over that stretch. The Raps are +.500 on the road, along with ONLY the top 4 WC teams and the top 2 EC teams. Nobody else has a winning road record. The Raps struggled at home to start the year, but are starting to win there, too. The most likely outcome is obviously for them to be +.500 at home as well, which is going to ^^ their wins. The most likely outcome for the next few weeks of games, with a markedly easier schedule, is that the Raps are going to win at a higher rate than the teams below/around them.
CalgaryRapsFan - I know you'll say "I know all that" but I don't get why you keep ignoring it and only bringing up the season totals for W/L. The Rudy Gay trade was far to big of an event, and having the 3rd toughest schedule is far too significant to leave out of a conversation that draws conclusions about where the Raps currently rank in the league.
Sure, anything could happen, a trade (or trades), or a key injury (Lowry) would change everything. But right now the most likely outcome over the coming weeks is that the Raps are going to continue to separate themselves from the middle of the pack teams. They've been on a hot streak and will likely cool off a bit and lose some winnable games, but they're 10-5 post Rudy after being 6-12 with Rudy - that alone makes drawing conclusions from W/L season totals kind of pointless, imho.
Just my two cents .
I totally get what you're saying and you can look at various power rankings, strength of schedules past and future, projected wins totals, playoff predictors, estimate based on trades/injuries, etc... but it's all subjective.
If every poster on here were to look at the standings, we'd probably all find a way to justify our own personal predictions for which teams will be in the lottery and where they'll rank going into the lottery.
So, I figure it's easiest to look at the one thing we can't argue about, which is wins already accumulated. There are so many variables and unknowns (controllable, semi-controllable and completely uncontrollable) looking forward, but this is an accurate up-to-date snapshot of the standings. It's not trying to be a predictor of the future.
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