Results 1 to 18 of 18

Thread: Raptors' realistic trade values

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    2,067
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Raptors' realistic trade values

    Trade values are set by the market, just because one team has a need for a player, they aren't going to offer significantly more than the next highest bidder for that player.

    I see a lot of work with the Trade Machine hashing out complex salary transfers. I want to instead focus on our guys' values on the free market. What kind of talent can they bring back? What is the minimum you would move our guys for?

    Likely
    Lowry - late first round (25+)
    Amir - late first rounder
    Demar - mid first round + diminutive prospect
    Hansborough/Novak - probably used as sweeteners to push one of the above from likely to ideal scenarios

    Ideally
    Lowry - mid first round (13 - 18)
    Amir - mid first rounder or 2 early 2nd round picks (31-40)
    Demar - top 10 2014

    If we take back future picks instead of ones for 2014, I think we can get those ideal situations.

    To keep in mind: Lowry as a rental is attractive to teams looking to compete this year, but isn't in our long term plans so likely won't be with whichever team he is traded to either.

    Also, Demar is still a big question mark to most executives. Has he really improved?
    Last edited by stooley; Thu Dec 12th, 2013 at 11:20 AM.

  2. #2
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,606
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I think your analysis is why so many proposals include the Raptors taking back bad contracts (ie: Boozer, Perkins, etc...) in addition to giving up the most talented player, in an attempt to maximize returns targeting the 2014 draft (with the assumption that rebuilding is a 2-3 year process, so taking on salary next season isn't a bad thing).

  3. #3
    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,471
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default Why do people think teams will trade us draft picks?

    In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?

    Especially when you consider that there are only 2 contenders in the East and maybe 4 in the West. Why do you guys think any team would give us a draft pick to lose to those 6 in the 1st or 2nd round?


    *ugh, I can't edit my spelling mistake on the title. Someone fix that for me. k, thx.

  4. #4
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    6,602
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    There are plenty of moron GMs in the league. This is my honest answer.
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  5. #5
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    2,067
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?

    Especially when you consider that there are only 2 contenders in the East and maybe 4 in the West. Why do you guys think any team would give us a draft pick to lose to those 6 in the 1st or 2nd round?


    *ugh, I can't edit my spelling mistake on the title. Someone fix that for me. k, thx.
    I know you didn't post this in this thread, but late first round picks shouldn't be too hard to get. The heat and pacers of the world probably aren't willing to wait several years for a mediocre prospect to develop

  6. Like Nilanka liked this post
  7. #6
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    979
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Well Washington traded a top-12 protected draft pick for Gortat.

    I definitely don't think you're getting any lottery picks in a trade period. But potentially you could get a mid-round or late 1st from either a team on the brink that's looking to maybe make a playoff run, or a serious contender looking to put their team over the top.

    That being said I literally just saw a rumor that the Knicks want Lowry. Getting Shumpert for him would be gold to say the least.

  8. #7
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,133
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    In most of these trade threads I see people coming up with ways that draft picks will come back to us, but why do people think any GM in the league is willing to trade a pick in a year that's supposed to be on par with the 2003 and 1996 class?
    No team that expects to have a top-10-or-better pick is going to trade that pick, which is why all the Milwaukee trade proposals I keep seeing Raps fans suggest are so silly at this point. Mid-round and late-round picks, though, are potentially doable, because after you get out of the top 10 or so you've got a lot of gambles rather than superstars. (Also remember that a 31-36 second rounder is sometimes preferable to a 25-30 first-rounder: you get the same general level of player quality, but you aren't required to sign them to a contract immediately.)

    And you have to remember: GMs can be fired, and a GM on the hotseat can and will overpay. Colangelo was on the hotseat last year and everybody knew it, which is why Memphis was able to gouge him on the Rudy Gay trade. So we're looking for this year's version of Bryan Colangelo.

    Chris Grant in Cleveland is probably the easiest candidate: he's responsible for draft choices that a lot of people questioned even when they were made (Thompson over Valanciunas, Waiters over Lillard/Barnes/Drummond, Bennett over Oladipo) and the Gilberts have told him they want to win NOW. There's a reason we keep bringing up Cleveland as a potential trade partner. Grant wasn't desperate/crazy enough to bite on Rudy Gay but Rudy was easily the worst of our trade assets; he may be more interested in DeMar or Amir.

  9. Like bounty, Letter N, Nilanka, CalgaryRapsFan liked this post
  10. #8
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Markham
    Posts
    1,545
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Realistically, you might get a first round pick no earlier than 20+ for DeMar. Everyone else will fetch a second rounder.
    your pal,
    ebrian

  11. Like Letter N liked this post
  12. #9
    Raptors Republic All-Star stooley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    2,067
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote ebrian wrote: View Post
    Realistically, you might get a first round pick no earlier than 20+ for DeMar. Everyone else will fetch a second rounder.
    You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.

  13. #10
    Raptors Republic All-Star Craiger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    1,119
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I think we are highly undervaluing Amir if the ideal is 2 early 2nd round picks (I get the mid first rounder, but I think that should be the realistic expectation for him).

    I wouldn't expect a top 10 pick for him, but I wouldn't want it to be to far outside the back end of the lottery either.

  14. #11
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Markham
    Posts
    1,545
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.
    A 28-30 draft pick is certainly a possibility, if you want to play semantics. But even then I'm not entirely sure. He's been average on a horrible, horrible team. If you're the Heat would you trade a draft pick for Lowry or take a gander on a 10-day contract on a re-tread vet? The vet is probably more hungry than Lowry will ever be.

    Heat did pretty well picking up Birdman last year. They got him for free. I think they'd do the same if they needed some help backing up Chalmers/Cole.
    your pal,
    ebrian

  15. #12
    Raptors Republic All-Star ebrian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Markham
    Posts
    1,545
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Craiger wrote: View Post
    I think we are highly undervaluing Amir if the ideal is 2 early 2nd round picks (I get the mid first rounder, but I think that should be the realistic expectation for him).

    I wouldn't expect a top 10 pick for him, but I wouldn't want it to be to far outside the back end of the lottery either.
    I don't think you can get anything higher than 20+ for Amir and you'd probably have to throw in some. I don't think Amir can get 20+ by himself. I think the only way you get into the lottery is if you dangle Valanciunas.
    Last edited by ebrian; Thu Dec 12th, 2013 at 03:42 PM.
    your pal,
    ebrian

  16. Like Letter N liked this post
  17. #13
    Raptors Republic All-Star Letter N's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,471
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.
    I don't see Heat taking on Lowry's contract, even for the year, for basically no real upgrade (they need a big C not a PG).
    Also a team like the Heat loves rookie contracts. The only way I see them trading their 1st to us is for 2 of our 2nds or our 2nd and maybe cash or something.

    The Pacers may.

    But again I don't mean we can't trade guys for pick number 29 in the draft, I'm just saying I don't see any GM being stupid enough to trade a lottery pick at all.

  18. #14
    Raptors Republic Starter special1's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Toronto, ON
    Posts
    760
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote Nosike wrote: View Post
    Well Washington traded a top-12 protected draft pick for Gortat.

    I definitely don't think you're getting any lottery picks in a trade period. But potentially you could get a mid-round or late 1st from either a team on the brink that's looking to maybe make a playoff run, or a serious contender looking to put their team over the top.

    That being said I literally just saw a rumor that the Knicks want Lowry. Getting Shumpert for him would be gold to say the least.
    Personally, I would rather have Tim Hardaway Jr.

  19. #15
    Raptors Republic Rookie
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    93
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    You don't think the Heat or Pacers would give up their first round pick for Lowry? My belief in the late first round is that championship teams don't have much use for a draft pick in the first place.
    Agreed and they also would not want take on a guranteed contract that comes with a 1st round

  20. #16
    Raptors Republic All-Star
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    1,133
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    From Zach Lowe's column today:

    Oklahoma City will almost certainly begin putting out feelers (if it hasn't already) for what it might be able to get by combining Kendrick Perkins and one of Jeremy Lamb, a future OKC first-round pick, and the Dallas first-rounder Oklahoma City acquired in the James Harden deal. There are complications with all of that. Perk has sunk to a level somewhere beyond terrible, and Lamb has generally played well this season; the Lamb–Reggie Jackson combo off the bench has been powerful.
    You know what I think they could get for that package? I think they could get DeMar and Hansbrough if they upgrade the "future OKC pick" to "their 2014 pick."

  21. #17
    Raptors Republic Starter imaginelino's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    257
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    I have begun to think that Masai has been thinking about who to deal with. That's why Gay was dealt to the Kings, thats why Masai is talking to the Knicks, Nets. He wants to help these teams climb out of the lottery.

  22. #18
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,606
    Post Thanks / Like

    Default

    Quote imaginelino wrote: View Post
    I have begun to think that Masai has been thinking about who to deal with. That's why Gay was dealt to the Kings, thats why Masai is talking to the Knicks, Nets. He wants to help these teams climb out of the lottery.
    It definitely has a win-win feel to it. That way the Raptors never tanked, they only finished at the bottom because other teams got better! haha

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •