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Thread: Horrifying Odds

  1. #1
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    Default Horrifying Odds

    I like to sneak a look at BBRef's playoff forecast every once in a while throughout the season. Obviously you have to take it with several grains of salt, but clearly the Massiah has some major work to do if he is to escape the clutches of mediocrity...

    The teams with the highest probability of making the playoffs this year:
    Indiana (100%)
    Miami (100%)
    Oklahoma City (100%)
    San Antonio (99.9%)
    Portland (99.8%)
    Atlanta (98.8%)
    LA Clippers (98.0%)
    Houston (90.9%)
    TORONTO (87.9%????)
    Detroit (85.4%)
    Charlotte (77.9%)

    That's right. The Raptors are #9!!! Joy to the effing world.

    As for the probability of winning the lottery, 0.3%.

    Conclusion: One of two things has to happen... DeRozan gets shipped out, or we're watching this team in late April.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ayoff_prob.cgi

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    Raptors Republic All-Star TRex's Avatar
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    Am i missing something here?? that's GREAT news!!
    Follow me on Twitter - @RRyan22

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    Raptors Republic Superstar rocwell's Avatar
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    Quote jrdyck wrote: View Post
    I like to sneak a look at BBRef's playoff forecast every once in a while throughout the season. Obviously you have to take it with several grains of salt, but clearly the Massiah has some major work to do if he is to escape the clutches of mediocrity...

    The teams with the highest probability of making the playoffs this year:
    Indiana (100%)
    Miami (100%)
    Oklahoma City (100%)
    San Antonio (99.9%)
    Portland (99.8%)
    Atlanta (98.8%)
    LA Clippers (98.0%)
    Houston (90.9%)
    TORONTO (87.9%????)
    Detroit (85.4%)
    Charlotte (77.9%)

    That's right. The Raptors are #9!!! Joy to the effing world.

    As for the probability of winning the lottery, 0.3%.

    Conclusion: One of two things has to happen... DeRozan gets shipped out, or we're watching this team in late April.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ayoff_prob.cgi
    No worries. Bulls had 0.1% chance to win lottery back in '08.

    I have faith in Adam. He's our dude.

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    Quote rocwell wrote: View Post
    No worries. Bulls had 0.1% chance to win lottery back in '08.

    I have faith in Adam. He's our dude.
    The lottery is not rigged.

  7. #5
    Raptors Republic Superstar rocwell's Avatar
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    Quote Nosike wrote: View Post
    The lottery is not rigged.
    Well, if you say so.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote rocwell wrote: View Post
    No worries. Bulls had 0.1% chance to win lottery back in '08.

    I have faith in Adam. He's our dude.
    Nah, Stern's gonna be the one riggin it for us. He'll be around as an eminence grise for awhile, especially in the shadier parts of the business.

  9. #7
    Raptors Republic Starter Shrub's Avatar
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    Horror.
    Terror.
    The scariest of things.

  10. #8
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    I have been saying this all along. MU gets the team winning and moving forward, getting good young players, with a team first mentality, willing to sacrifice for winning. On draft day with the slightest chance we get Andrew. The whole league and fans all go on to say it was rigged. But the home town kid has always gone home, Ewing,LBJ etc. I know there are a few more. They will justify it by saying the lottery gives everyone a chance.

    Think about it? What other team could he go to and possibly have the marketing effect he could here, at home. NO WHERE, and the NBA will look to capitalize on it. I am not big on conspiracy but once we got the all-star game I saw it a lot clearer. Rookie/Spoh game, dunk contest at home, wow can anyone imagine having our own kid there in a Raps uniform. The whole week or weekend is all about him, not the game. The dollars are what I am looking at here. An the NBA stands to capitalize off Andrew coming here, more than any other city.

    I think the whole world will be shocked when we get him, but then say well it was just meant to be, but of course, our God will be Stern behind the scenes with the Gold envelope wrapped waiting for MU.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Quote jrdyck wrote: View Post
    I like to sneak a look at BBRef's playoff forecast every once in a while throughout the season. Obviously you have to take it with several grains of salt, but clearly the Massiah has some major work to do if he is to escape the clutches of mediocrity...

    The teams with the highest probability of making the playoffs this year:
    Indiana (100%)
    Miami (100%)
    Oklahoma City (100%)
    San Antonio (99.9%)
    Portland (99.8%)
    Atlanta (98.8%)
    LA Clippers (98.0%)
    Houston (90.9%)
    TORONTO (87.9%????)
    Detroit (85.4%)
    Charlotte (77.9%)

    That's right. The Raptors are #9!!! Joy to the effing world.

    As for the probability of winning the lottery, 0.3%.

    Conclusion: One of two things has to happen... DeRozan gets shipped out, or we're watching this team in late April.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ayoff_prob.cgi



    Wait. Playoffs? That's a good thing right?
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

  12. #10
    Raptors Republic Starter Shrub's Avatar
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    Wait. Playoffs? That's a good thing right?
    No!
    Didn't you get the memo?

    Horror!

  13. #11
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    Quote Shrub wrote: View Post
    Horror.
    Terror.
    The scariest of things.
    I always felt BBRef was a terrorist cell. Now it's confirmed!!

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    Quote Nosike wrote: View Post
    The lottery is not rigged.
    I hope more xmas stockings are going to have foil hats this year.

  15. #13
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    These playoff odds take into account the division the Raptors are in. They are projecting that the Raptors will win the division, and hence gave them close to a 90% chance of getting into the playoffs.

    I am concerned.. and the reason why is that I personally do think that teams like Orlando/Milwaukee/Atlanta (with Brooklyn's pick), Boston, Chicago (with Rose back) could all have better records next year while the Raptors basically stay where they are. The flexibility they got from the Gay trade isn't going to be too helpful for free agency since there are no real difference makers.. and so that leaves trades to get better and/or organic growth. The draft could reveal a gem but it would be counting on a improbability. MU has done well in the past with low picks but it may be difficult to reproduce each time.

    The trade front is difficult because no team likes to be fleeced. If MU wants to maintain the 4th seed going forward they would have to ensure that they win each trade without breaking up a core. That might be difficult to accomplish or hope the 16-18 pick turns into a gem. I also don't think playoff experience really matters.

    I personally would have preferred a step back this season because of where they are as a team, give MU more choices when drafting, and then using trades next season to figure out what the core is. At that point there should be no pressure to try to get the 4th seed or better but to just try and make the playoffs.

    I don't know what will happen... If they make the playoffs I will be cheering as loud as anyone would in hoping they get to the next round. I just hope they don't end up as the 9th seed in East as that will be extremely disappointing.

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  17. #14
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    Nice post Planetmars.

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    the best news of the season (after the Rudy Gay trade)
    What they got to say now? Nothing they can say now. Mobbin' on the low. Winnin' on the low
    The city embraced me, made me feel at home. The only difference [between Compton and Toronto] for me is the cold. -DeMar
    No Where Near the South Side #WeTheNorth

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    These playoff odds take into account the division the Raptors are in. They are projecting that the Raptors will win the division, and hence gave them close to a 90% chance of getting into the playoffs.

    I am concerned.. and the reason why is that I personally do think that teams like Orlando/Milwaukee/Atlanta (with Brooklyn's pick), Boston, Chicago (with Rose back) could all have better records next year while the Raptors basically stay where they are. The flexibility they got from the Gay trade isn't going to be too helpful for free agency since there are no real difference makers.. and so that leaves trades to get better and/or organic growth. The draft could reveal a gem but it would be counting on a improbability. MU has done well in the past with low picks but it may be difficult to reproduce each time.

    The trade front is difficult because no team likes to be fleeced. If MU wants to maintain the 4th seed going forward they would have to ensure that they win each trade without breaking up a core. That might be difficult to accomplish or hope the 16-18 pick turns into a gem. I also don't think playoff experience really matters.

    I personally would have preferred a step back this season because of where they are as a team, give MU more choices when drafting, and then using trades next season to figure out what the core is. At that point there should be no pressure to try to get the 4th seed or better but to just try and make the playoffs.

    I don't know what will happen... If they make the playoffs I will be cheering as loud as anyone would in hoping they get to the next round. I just hope they don't end up as the 9th seed in East as that will be extremely disappointing.
    Unless 'magically' they win the lottery.

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  21. #17
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    Title should have been "Horrifying Odds (for the Tank Advocate)". Personally, I'm OK with either "good" scenario... winning the division and getting the 3/4 seed or finishing bottom 6/7. I just wanted to rouse the tank-or-bust folks out there.

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