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Thread: Anti-Tanker? Introducing the 'Wheel'

  1. #21
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    the media place a lot of attention on this "issue" for one reason, THEY are part of the big problem. If hey would stop glamourizing "markets" and start focusing solely on "teams" there would be less fucking bias toward certain markets. Players arent the problem, AGENTS who deal with SPONSERS, linked directly to MEDIA are the problem.

    The sooner people learn the REAL game that gets played in pro sports the better.

  2. #22
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    Lowe calls this "the most fleshed out proposal"? LOL, he's way too full of himself. If he thinks it's unseemly how teams try and manipulate the current system, the league would be a far greater debacle if they adopted this silliness. Anything remotely close to this will never happen. No, I don't wish to spell it out. Don't like? *shrug*

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    The main issue with this is that college players might start gaming the system. Say Jabari is the top prospect. If Milwaukee has the top pick in 2014, but Chicago is set to have it in 2015, he would obviously just stay another year.

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    The premier league actually has more legit title contenders than the nba does. Arsenal, Chelsea, united, city, Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham all in the hunt atm

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    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote Nosike wrote: View Post
    The premier league actually has more legit title contenders than the nba does. Arsenal, Chelsea, united, city, Liverpool, Everton, Tottenham all in the hunt atm
    Are they restricted by a salary cap?
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    Lowe calls this "the most fleshed out proposal"? LOL, he's way too full of himself. If he thinks it's unseemly how teams try and manipulate the current system, the league would be a far greater debacle if they adopted this silliness. Anything remotely close to this will never happen. No, I don't wish to spell it out. Don't like? *shrug*
    you do realize that it isn't his proposal, right?

    can you explain why you think this proposal is 'silliness,' at least in terms of how it compares to the current system?
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  8. #27
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    Default Hate the wheel: design a better lottery instead

    Human brains are wired to find uncertainty interesting: that's why we watch sports.

    To maximize uncertainty and entertainment, the NBA should give high draft picks to poor teams (long term poor teams should improve keeping the game uncertain), and keep a lottery (vs. the boring predictability of the 30 year wheel).

    The current system is OK in principle, but overly rewards failure. Here's an alternative weighting:
    1. Give each non-playoff team lottery balls: 17 for the worst down to 3 for the best (140 balls total).
    2. Have the top 14 picks all be done by lottery: draw #1, remove the winning team's balls, then re-spin for #2, etc.

    If you use these exact numbers:
    - around half the time, the #1 pick does NOT go to a bottom 5 team
    - if you are the worst team in the league you have <50% chance of a top 4 pick
    - if you just miss the playoffs you have ~10% chance of a top 4 pick
    - if you move by 4 places from 14 to 10 lottery balls, your chance of picking #1 goes from 10% to 6.5%

    In this case, the payoff from losing is much lower and less certain. There's also a high risk of looking like an absolute idiot if you tank: you may still end up with a #11-14 pick as the worst team in the league. That can ruin careers very fast.

    P.S. If you try just missing the playoffs to get a good pick, you still have a >80% chance of picking outside the top 6. So this is again a risky strategy: it's probably better to make the playoffs if you can. The riskier the payoff, the less likely that people will attempt it ... and they'll just focus on winning games.

    P.P.S. This weighting makes it longer/harder for a bottom-of-the-basement team to improve to mediocre ... and given the CBA to help you, there is no excuse to remain at the bottom forever, even if you have unlucky draft lotteries.
    Last edited by Kuh; Mon Dec 23rd, 2013 at 01:55 PM.

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  10. #28
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    I'd like a system that incorporates this, but doesn't totally abandon ranked seeding. How about this:

    Rather than a 30 year cycle, there's a five year cycle, with each team drafting in each tier (1-6, 7-12, 13-18, 19-24, 25-30), over the course of the cycle. However, within each tier, teams are still ranked according to standings. If you're the worst team in the league in a year that you're in tier 1, you draft #1 overall. If you're the top team in the league and you're in tier 3, you draft 18th. You could also add a random element to group #1. You also set up the tiers so that each tier has one team from each division, meaning that talent is more or less equally distributed around the league.
    tank-agnostic

  11. #29
    Raptors Republic All-Star yertu damkule's Avatar
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    Quote Nosike wrote: View Post
    The main issue with this is that college players might start gaming the system. Say Jabari is the top prospect. If Milwaukee has the top pick in 2014, but Chicago is set to have it in 2015, he would obviously just stay another year.
    i really have a hard time thinking a player is going to put millions at risk by playing another year and potentially hurting their draft stock (even if staying would benefit them as a player over the long term), and the example you cite is pretty extreme (i.e. a potential top pick staying in school for the chance to be taken by his hometown team).

    this goes for wiggins, and how raptors fans seem all frothy because he's stated he'd like to play for toronto. i hope people realize that making that statement isn't the same as him saying he ONLY wants to play for the raps, just that it'd be nice. he'll happily play for whichever team selects him, because with this CBA, rookies coming into the league just don't have much leverage (other than staying in school, which is super risky).
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  13. #30
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Kuh wrote: View Post
    Human brains are wired to find uncertainty interesting: that's why we watch sports.

    To maximize uncertainty and entertainment, the NBA should give high draft picks to poor teams (long term poor teams should improve keeping the game uncertain), and keep a lottery (vs. the boring predictability of the 30 year wheel).

    The current system is OK in principle, but overly rewards failure. Here's an alternative weighting:
    1. Give each non-playoff team lottery balls: 17 for the worst down to 3 for the best (140 balls total).
    2. Have the top 14 picks all be done by lottery: draw #1, remove the winning team's balls, then re-spin for #2, etc.

    If you use these exact numbers:
    - around half the time, the #1 pick does NOT go to a bottom 5 team
    - if you are the worst team in the league you have <50% chance of a top 4 pick
    - if you just miss the playoffs you have ~10% chance of a top 4 pick
    - if you move by 4 places from 14 to 10 lottery balls, your chance of picking #1 goes from 10% to 6.5%

    In this case, the payoff from losing is much lower and less certain. There's also a high risk of looking like an absolute idiot if you tank: you may still end up with a #11-15 pick for all your 'efforts'. That can ruin careers very fast.

    P.S. If you try just missing the playoffs to get a good pick, you still have a >80% chance of picking outside the top 6. So this is again a risky strategy: it's probably better to make the playoffs if you can. The riskier the payoff, the less likely that people will attempt it ... and they'll just focus on winning games.
    I like this.

    Too much collusion possible with wheel.

    How would people feel if Miami drafted Parker, wiggins, smart, exum, embiid this year?
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    except at the draft, which is all homework, politics and chance.

  14. #31
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote p00ka wrote: View Post
    Lowe calls this "the most fleshed out proposal"? LOL, he's way too full of himself. If he thinks it's unseemly how teams try and manipulate the current system, the league would be a far greater debacle if they adopted this silliness. Anything remotely close to this will never happen. No, I don't wish to spell it out. Don't like? *shrug*
    Do the manipulations you anticipate affect wins and losses within a given season? If not, wouldn't it make sense to trade current on-court manipulations for future off-court ones....especially coming from an anti-tanker?
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

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  16. #32
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    Quote Kuh wrote: View Post
    The current system is OK in principle, but overly rewards failure. Here's an alternative weighting:
    1. Give each non-playoff team lottery balls: 17 for the worst down to 3 for the best (140 balls total).
    2. Have the top 14 picks all be done by lottery: draw #1, remove the winning team's balls, then re-spin for #2, etc.
    This is the current system with slightly different odds.

  17. #33
    Raptors Republic All-Star yertu damkule's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I like this.

    Too much collusion possible with wheel.

    How would people feel if Miami drafted Parker, wiggins, smart, exum, embiid this year?
    i dunno...how do people feel about building a team with the intent to tank and getting to draft one of them? i say that as a part of tank nation, btw. and in all honesty, yeah, if this proposal (which, as was stated in the article, couldn't be implemented until all future draft picks involved in a trade were passed) went into effect this year, and by some miracle miami (or another top team) won this year's pick, then yeah, that would totally suck, for anyone not a heat fan.

    can you describe what you mean by collusion?
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  18. #34
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    fuck it, they should simply bash it, contract 14 teams leaving only the top 16 financial markets in place. Every team makes the playoffs.

    the way they market now, they only care about those anyhow ( imean really, for a shitty team, toronto gets a shit load of coverage, I hear zero about the other have nots)

    This solves everything.


  19. #35
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    oh and the draft....no draft. Players get hired just like any other employee anyplace else. but if you hire one, you gotta fire one. Since there are only 16 teams, there arent any shitter on the bench, so you have to let value walk.

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    Quote Letter N wrote: View Post
    This is the current system with slightly different odds.
    This is the current system ... with VERY different odds.

    Today, the worst team has a 100% chance of a top 4 pick.
    In my proposal, the worst team has a ~45% chance of a top 4 pick.

    Today, the 5th worst team has a 30% chance of a top 4 pick (and a 100% chance of a top 8 pick).
    In my proposal, the 5th worst team still has ~30% chance of a top 4 pick (and may pick as low as 14th).

    Right now, tanking from 5th worst to worst increases your chances of a top 4 pick from 30% to 100%: quite the reward.
    In my proposal, tanking from 5th worst to worst increases your chances of a top 4 pick from 30% to 45%: much less payoff!!

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    Quote yertu damkule wrote: View Post
    Can you describe what you mean by collusion?
    He means Toronto going to Wiggins and saying "we're drafting #24 in 2014 but #1 in 2015 ... why don't you stay at Kansas another year".

  22. #38
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    Quote Kuh wrote: View Post
    This is the current system ... with VERY different odds.

    Today, the worst team has a 100% chance of a top 4 pick.
    In my proposal, the worst team has a ~45% chance of a top 4 pick.

    Today, the 5th worst team has a 30% chance of a top 4 pick (and a 100% chance of a top 8 pick).
    In my proposal, the 5th worst team still has ~30% chance of a top 4 pick (and may pick as low as 14th).

    Right now, tanking from 5th worst to worst increases your chances of a top 4 pick from 30% to 100%: quite the reward.
    In my proposal, tanking from 5th worst to worst increases your chances of a top 4 pick from 30% to 45%: much less payoff!!
    Much less, but teams will still tank. The point is to get teams to stop tanking and ruining the game for the fans.

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  24. #39
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    Quote stretch wrote: View Post
    Scrapping the draft would solve tanking. The best players would often sign where they figure to be the best fit and would have the opportunity to develop their game. With a hard cap and a rookie scale in place, Parker would likely end up in Chicago or LA. Wiggins and his agent would look long and hard at the Raptors and their need for a 3.
    A hard cap would be a good way to make sure the small market teams struggle to remain financially viable. If the league has approx. $2b in payroll, and you set the hard line say around the luxury line of $70m, then that`s over $90m in payroll that the smaller payroll teams are required to pay. The $2b figure doesn't change per the CBA, so essentially a hard cap would push the salary floor much higher.

    Anyways, without looking at numbers, I can see having a free market for rookies work if the rookie scale is increased dramatically (and maybe decreased in years), on the condition that teams are limited in how much rookie contract money they have over a multi-year period. So if the Lakers want to spend 3 years worth of of their rookie money on Jabari, fine, but they will not have any rookie money in the next two years. That's clearly not any kind of simple solution, and would likely require the CBA to double in size, but I've yet to hear of any "simple" solutions that do not have large holes in their logic.

  25. #40
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    I would rather see the NBA draft disappear entirely.

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