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Thread: Jonas Valanciunas's Ceiling...?

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer MACK11's Avatar
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    Default Jonas Valanciunas's Ceiling...?

    I believe with the right coach and if the offensive is played through him he can be a 20 and 10 guy easily and then some if he develops accordingly
    What do y'all think?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    i think everyone on here is pretty high on bigV. i also think you can add in a block and a half in there. i think 20 points might be a bit high also. 15-18 points with 10 boards and a couple blocks and assists would make him a fantastic player.

    just going to hijack here a minute and ask apollo or the doc if we are able to just search for keywords because i want to find one specific post from the davis draft. someone was talking about davis being an over hyped garbage machine and that he would never be able to carry bigVs socks.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6583/anthony-davis
    just wanted to post this.


    bigV is good hopefully really good.

    can we maybe change this from a bigV ball suck thread to a "best future big" type thread?
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    Jv isn't a candidate for best future big, so let's just focus on his personal development.

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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    i think everyone on here is pretty high on bigV. i also think you can add in a block and a half in there. i think 20 points might be a bit high also. 15-18 points with 10 boards and a couple blocks and assists would make him a fantastic player.

    just going to hijack here a minute and ask apollo or the doc if we are able to just search for keywords because i want to find one specific post from the davis draft. someone was talking about davis being an over hyped garbage machine and that he would never be able to carry bigVs socks.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6583/anthony-davis
    just wanted to post this.


    bigV is good hopefully really good.

    can we maybe change this from a bigV ball suck thread to a "best future big" type thread?
    What's the point. Fan is short for fanatic. So occasional extreme homerism is to be expected. Let it go and move on.

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    20-10 as an absolute ceiling, ok. But I don't think it's likely.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    18-10 shooting 56+% and 80+% would be awesome with a couple blocks.... And that is his ceiling IMO.

    One area I want to see him increase is his free throw attempts. He averaged 3 per game last year but has dropped to 2.1 this year.
    Not sure why the decline. Less active off ball?
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    Raptors Republic All-Star JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Depends on his outside shot. If he can start shooting threes (which isn't likely, but also isn't impossible), he could get to 20.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Quote JimiCliff wrote: View Post
    Depends on his outside shot. If he can start shooting threes (which isn't likely, but also isn't impossible), he could get to 20.
    He just needs to start shooting the fifteen footer. It seems to me that when he first started playing last year, he was taking them the odd time and hacving good success. then he stopped, and now he gets a lot of space out there because opposing bigs are hanging back, waiting for the pump fake and driving hook.

    If he started taking more he could boost his ppg and open up the center a little more for the drive.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Shrub's Avatar
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    JV won me over recently because of his tenacity, and I think this is where his impact will be felt.
    I say this because I think it is a both a huge strength, and a near certainty.

    JV has the potential to be the big that other bigs want to avoid the most.
    The big who is best at taking others out of their game.

    His number will be good, but I don't think expecting 20 points a game out of him is the best use of his skill-set.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Superjudge's Avatar
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    I think youre looking at his ceiling...with perhaps a bit more Defensive awareness to come.

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    Is he going to be a Super Star in this league ? Answer is NO.
    Is he going to be a dominate centre in NBA who can carry team on his shoulder? Answer is NO.

    His ceiling is 15 point and 10 rebound per game. He can be a great 2nd or 3rd option in the championship team. I want to see 2 things from him: more Free Throws and much more dominate on defence. He needs to become like Chandler on defence.

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    I think JV will develop into a Marcin Gortat type player with hopefully a little better finishing on the offensive end

    If more plays are run through him, hopefully he takes note of Duncan and Gasol (elite big men who have had solid assist numbers)

    He may have a shot at becoming an all-star ala Chandler, Hibbert, Antonio Davis -- if we get an elite player on our team and JV kills it on the defensive end

    comparing him to other young Cs:

    1) Drummond
    2a) JV
    2b) Vucevic
    3) Miles Plumlee
    4) Kanter
    5) Tyler Zeller
    6) Biyombo
    7) Faverani

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    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    JV is closer to his Offensive potential than he is his Defensive potential.


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    Raptors Republic Veteran rocwell's Avatar
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    Casey put JV into correct rotation [for now], I like it.

    Let's give this kid 28-34 mins a game and in my opinion, we'll see huge improvement in his awareness. I hate JV's game awareness and I think raps needed to deal with this last season, but if we focus at present - drills alone can't teach game awareness, so I hope Casey understands that and will give JV time in pressure situations, 4Q. Jonas also needs to work on his vertical jumping mistakes. ( like jumping of toes when he fights for 2nd chance. He loves to jump of full foot. ). JV has a lot of work to do. He's young and his ceiling hasn't changed at all. He's great interior defender, but his defensive awareness is bad. If he can't improve his awareness ( I'm sure he will ) then he'll stay role player forever.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Shrub's Avatar
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    For awhile I thought folks around here were over-valuing JV, but now it seems like he's being underestimated.
    We're talking about his ceiling.
    Somebody here really thinks his ceiling is Gortat?

    We always knew he had the physical tools, and now we've seen that he's hyper-competitive and motivated.
    This is what really sold me on JV:
    He looks like the most passionate player on the floor every game.

    Quite simply, he strikes me as the type of player that won't settle for anything less than their ceiling.
    He wants to be perfect.

    I think he may just be a dominant C.
    Not dominant like a Shaq, but a more transparent dominant.
    His impact won't show on the stat sheet, but his presence on the floor could be massive.
    Last edited by Shrub; Thu Dec 26th, 2013 at 01:20 PM.

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    Quote Shrub wrote: View Post
    For awhile I thought folks around here were over-valuing JV, but now it seems like he's being underestimated.
    We're talking about his ceiling.
    Somebody here really thinks his ceiling is Gortat?

    We always knew he had the physical tools, and now we've seen that he's hyper-competitive and motivated.
    This is what really sold me on JV:
    He looks like the most passionate player on the floor every game.

    Quite simply, he strikes me as the type of player that won't settle for anything less than their ceiling.
    He wants to be perfect.

    I think he may just be a dominant C if he keeps that hunger.
    Okay relax, I said I think he would develop into a better version of Gortat (a solid starter in this league, look him up)

    No one really knows his ceiling, I'm basing that on what I've seen in a very short career

    I clearly said if he wants to be an all-star he is going to have to put in the work like Chandler and Antonio Davis --- two players with good athleticism and motors.

    I don't know what you expect from the kid but he's not a freak of nature like Drummond and doesn't have the finesse of The Brow. He's not going to be a superstar but if he works really hard he could be an all-star.... what don't you like about that?

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    His stats this year are consistent with Pekovic's second year in the NBA, a couple points lower in PPG, but I expect that to come up through the rest of the year. But what Pekovic was doing at 25, JV is doing at 21. If he can develop the sort of physique that Pekovic has, I think his upside is higher than Pekovic, which would put him in the 20 and 10 range. And Pekovic is one of my favorite centers in the league, so I'd be pretty happy about that.

    But really, here's what I care about: his upside - once his frame fills in more and he develops a few more moves - is the sort of player you can just throw the ball down to every possession, and the other team just spends entire games (infact, entire playoff series) worrying about how they're going to shut him down... knowing they can't foul him because he's too good from the line; knowing you can't double team him because he has teammates who can pass the ball to the open guy and knock down those shots; knowing you can't just play him straight up because he can get his shot against anyone 1-on-1.
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    The guy I keep thinking of with JV in terms of approach, effort, ability to play both ends, etc....and in terms of ceiling...

    Is Alonzo Mourning (when he moved full time to being a C and post player, and not the early years where he played a lot more on the perimeter).

    Obviously it's hard to compare production (especially shot blocking) as the game really favoured bigs more until they started changing the rules. Less plays run through the post as it's easier to crowd down low (no more illegal D rule), and harder to force perimeter guys where you want, thus making it harder to pile up block totals.

    But Jonas has shown such good effort and energy levels, and is obviously going to be a very physical player. He's a decent shot blocker and his size/length will make him a nightmarish obstacle in the paint. And his physicality will intimidate in the lane, as not only can he be a pretty good shotblocker, but his physicality will deter guards from going in at the risk of being hipchecked into the 6th row from running into him (we've seen him do this occasionally, where smaller guys just collapse to the ground after running into him). And on the glass he's already shown what a beast he can be on both ends, where you don't want to be fighting with him under the rim and it'll just wear out guys who aren't used to that effort and physicality.

    Offensively he has good all around skills, even if he does still need a lot more work to be a go-to guy. He can knock down jumpers, has a couple of solid developing moves, is good at the line, and can finish with both hands. His post moves need more work, and the running hook is something he goes to too often....But it's easy to forget that last year he had ZERO post moves (clumsy back downs to try and get an easy shot). To go from zero to having a couple of moves, and being able to finish with either hand in "gimme" situations where he's got his man sealed under/close to the rim, is a very nice progression. And if his jumper becomes even more solid, it'll just make his face-up game work even better, where all you need is a good jumper and pump fake.

    Marcin Gortat is a funny comparison. I think that's his floor, and something he's already shown he'll surpass. Gortat does not have near the tenacity that Jonas does. And that's what makes me keep thinking of Mourning: an incredibly passionate player who never quits on either end, who has good all-around 2-way ability and has the type of personality you can build around and that can likely develop him into a leadership role.

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    I don't believe Jonas should get any bigger at this point. Bigger = slower and the NBA is mostly about being able to move and respond quickly.

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