Jonas Valanciunas's Ceiling...?

[connected]

For awhile I thought folks around here were over-valuing JV, but now it seems like he's being underestimated.
We're talking about his ceiling.
Somebody here really thinks his ceiling is Gortat?

We always knew he had the physical tools, and now we've seen that he's hyper-competitive and motivated.
This is what really sold me on JV:
He looks like the most passionate player on the floor every game.

Quite simply, he strikes me as the type of player that won't settle for anything less than their ceiling.
He wants to be perfect.

I think he may just be a dominant C if he keeps that hunger.

Okay relax, I said I think he would develop into a better version of Gortat (a solid starter in this league, look him up)

No one really knows his ceiling, I'm basing that on what I've seen in a very short career

I clearly said if he wants to be an all-star he is going to have to put in the work like Chandler and Antonio Davis --- two players with good athleticism and motors.

I don't know what you expect from the kid but he's not a freak of nature like Drummond and doesn't have the finesse of The Brow. He's not going to be a superstar but if he works really hard he could be an all-star.... what don't you like about that?

[octothorp]

His stats this year are consistent with Pekovic's second year in the NBA, a couple points lower in PPG, but I expect that to come up through the rest of the year. But what Pekovic was doing at 25, JV is doing at 21. If he can develop the sort of physique that Pekovic has, I think his upside is higher than Pekovic, which would put him in the 20 and 10 range. And Pekovic is one of my favorite centers in the league, so I'd be pretty happy about that.

But really, here's what I care about: his upside - once his frame fills in more and he develops a few more moves - is the sort of player you can just throw the ball down to every possession, and the other team just spends entire games (infact, entire playoff series) worrying about how they're going to shut him down... knowing they can't foul him because he's too good from the line; knowing you can't double team him because he has teammates who can pass the ball to the open guy and knock down those shots; knowing you can't just play him straight up because he can get his shot against anyone 1-on-1.

[white men can't jump]

The guy I keep thinking of with JV in terms of approach, effort, ability to play both ends, etc....and in terms of ceiling...

Is Alonzo Mourning (when he moved full time to being a C and post player, and not the early years where he played a lot more on the perimeter).

Obviously it's hard to compare production (especially shot blocking) as the game really favoured bigs more until they started changing the rules. Less plays run through the post as it's easier to crowd down low (no more illegal D rule), and harder to force perimeter guys where you want, thus making it harder to pile up block totals.

But Jonas has shown such good effort and energy levels, and is obviously going to be a very physical player. He's a decent shot blocker and his size/length will make him a nightmarish obstacle in the paint. And his physicality will intimidate in the lane, as not only can he be a pretty good shotblocker, but his physicality will deter guards from going in at the risk of being hipchecked into the 6th row from running into him (we've seen him do this occasionally, where smaller guys just collapse to the ground after running into him). And on the glass he's already shown what a beast he can be on both ends, where you don't want to be fighting with him under the rim and it'll just wear out guys who aren't used to that effort and physicality.

Offensively he has good all around skills, even if he does still need a lot more work to be a go-to guy. He can knock down jumpers, has a couple of solid developing moves, is good at the line, and can finish with both hands. His post moves need more work, and the running hook is something he goes to too often....But it's easy to forget that last year he had ZERO post moves (clumsy back downs to try and get an easy shot). To go from zero to having a couple of moves, and being able to finish with either hand in "gimme" situations where he's got his man sealed under/close to the rim, is a very nice progression. And if his jumper becomes even more solid, it'll just make his face-up game work even better, where all you need is a good jumper and pump fake.

Marcin Gortat is a funny comparison. I think that's his floor, and something he's already shown he'll surpass. Gortat does not have near the tenacity that Jonas does. And that's what makes me keep thinking of Mourning: an incredibly passionate player who never quits on either end, who has good all-around 2-way ability and has the type of personality you can build around and that can likely develop him into a leadership role.

[The Great One]

All-Star.

[stretch]

I don't believe Jonas should get any bigger at this point. Bigger = slower and the NBA is mostly about being able to move and respond quickly.

[Shrub]

And on the glass he's already shown what a beast he can be on both ends, where you don't want to be fighting with him under the rim and it'll just wear out guys who aren't used to that effort and physicality.

Marcin Gortat is a funny comparison. I think that's his floor, and something he's already shown he'll surpass. Gortat does not have near the tenacity that Jonas does. And that's what makes me keep thinking of Mourning: an incredibly passionate player who never quits on either end, who has good all-around 2-way ability and has the type of personality you can build around and that can likely develop him into a leadership role.

Yeah, that seems a lot more sound.
I just don't see much Gortat in JV at all, really.
Different player.

[rocwell]

Yeah, that seems a lot more sound.
I just don't see much Gortat in JV at all, really.
Different player.

they have similar accents

[psrs1]

JV's ceiling is dependent on DC's distribution of minutes. Certainly defensively he has more work to do but the guy gives maximal effort and seems to take instruction. To get more points he needs more touches.

[Puffer]

All-Star.

Agree 100%

JV has had 37 hours of game time in the NBA. 37 hours. And that is after spending 8 years in Europe learning a different style of play, the last four years as a pro he was there practicing that style 3-4 hours a day during the season. He is still unlearning reflexes that have been instilled in him.

He won't hit his physical peak for another 4-5 years. He is going to be schooled each summer for those years by one of the best big men to ever play in the NBA (Divac, with the Lithuanian Nat. team), as well as any other big men camps/personal coaching he is exposed to.

He seems to have DeMar's passion to improve. I think it is very hard to imagine his ceiling at this point. I am not afraid to say that his goal should be Karl Malone. Malone entered the league at 22 and played 31 minutes a game his first season. He averaged 15 pts and 9 rb that season. the next year he played 35 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 and 21.7.

When JV is 23 I think he hits similar numbers to what Malone got. Malone averaged 25 and 10 for his career. JV has a real shot at getting close to that, if the Raps can sign a pg who knows how to play a two man game with a great center.

So far he has done very well in a f**ked up team system with a coach who has not been using him to his best advantage, I believe.

This is my opinion.

Signed and dated this 26th day of December, 2013
Puffer

[feet85]

Lamarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol

[NoPropsneeded]

I've been saying it for a while. Dude is going to be a top 3 Center in the league, not sure what he'll average but he'll be a top 3 C and a perennial all star

[connected]

The guy I keep thinking of with JV in terms of approach, effort, ability to play both ends, etc....and in terms of ceiling...

Is Alonzo Mourning (when he moved full time to being a C and post player, and not the early years where he played a lot more on the perimeter).

Marcin Gortat is a funny comparison. I think that's his floor, and something he's already shown he'll surpass. Gortat does not have near the tenacity that Jonas does. And that's what makes me keep thinking of Mourning: an incredibly passionate player who never quits on either end, who has good all-around 2-way ability and has the type of personality you can build around and that can likely develop him into a leadership role.

NBA champion (2006)
7× NBA All-Star (1994–1997, 2000–2002)
2× NBA Defensive Player of the Year (1999–2000)
All-NBA First Team (1999)
All-NBA Second Team (2000)
2× NBA All-Defensive First Team (1999–2000)
NBA All-Rookie First Team (1993)
2× NBA blocks champion (1999-2000)

You really feel confident JV can produce that?

Gortat isn't his ceiling --- but when you guys say HOFers like Mourning (2 time defensive player of the year) and Malone (2 time MVP!!) it's crazy .... when he doesn't live up to these lofty expectations you'll be the ones with the pitchforks demanding his head

I maintain that we should be looking at a career path like Chandler and Noah

[NoPropsneeded]

Thing about JV is that he has moves that you rarely see guys like Hibbert and Noah do. When do you ever see one of those guys Pump fake and then drive to the basket off the dribble and throw it down?

[NoPropsneeded]

Or this?

[Shrub]

Connected, I wasn't going after you before and I'm not now, but again:
We're talking about ceiling.
In other words, the absolute best thing a player could become.

Nobody's saying they expect that from the kid, he's just saying that's his potential.

It's certainly lofty, but I like the parallels in terms of playing style.